Source:
grandestrategy.com/2007/06/light-sabre-for-third-world-fc-1-jf-17.htmlGrande Strategy: A Light Sabre for the Third World: The FC-1 / JF-17
Market viability
As a MiG-21 and F-5 replacement, there is obviously a huge market, perhaps a lot larger than everyone realizes. The large number of lesser-known Third World airforces in the world could all chip in to make a significant order. It is my belief that the FC-1 final count could be closer to1500. Below is indicated potential sales count by country that the FC-1 could possibly expect over the next 2 decades.
Country Projected Sales
Albania
20
Argentina
50
Azerbaijan
6
Bangladesh
20
Bolivia
30
China
150
Congo
30
Egypt
150
Eritrea
12
Ethiopia
30
Indonesia
6
Iran
150
Lebanon
6
Malaysia
40
Morocco
20
Myanmar
30
Nigeria
30
North Korea
200
Pakistan
250
Sri Lanka
12
Sudan
20
Syria
50
Tanzania
6
Thailand
40
Venezuela
40
Zimbabwe
30
However, there is a caveat. The FC-1 is unlikely to get to these sales figures with the RD-93.
The bottleneck is not just Russian politics, but the quality and reliability of the engine itself. One cannot viably create a single fighter success story with an engine that has a rejection rate of 33% rejection rate, low MTBF, and costs more than the AL-31. The Taishan engine is ideal in this regard as it also opens up a future maintenance legacy, given that it will be used in the future Chinese twin-engined fighter.
