[kaal2009]

On December 25, 2008, I wrote:-

"Another point that needs to be made is the capacity of countries like India and Pakistan, with a low degree of urbanisation, to survive a full-fledged nuclear war against a country such as the United States which has a high degree of urbanisation. If both India and the United States launch 5,000 nuclear warheads at each other, targeting the 4,000 largest population centers in the other country (let us assume for simplicity that anti-missile systems are not a significant factor with such a large number of warheads, though, in fact, I have predicted India's anti-missile systems will be far more effective than the United States'), what percentage of India's population will be in its 4,000 largest population centers as compared to the percentage of the United States' population that will be in its 4,000 largest population centers? The fact of the matter is that even if 60% or 90% or 95% of India's population perishes in a full-scale nuclear war with the United States, the remaining population -- say 50 million -- will equal India's population in its classical period and India will survive, with a life-style comparable to that in its classical period. On the other hand, the United States cannot survive the destruction of its 4,000 largest population centers because of the high degree of urbanisation, technology intensive life-styles and other cultural factors. To put it another way, if India loses ALL its electricity permanently, it will survive; the United States cannot. I am predicting that the population of the United States that survives being killed immediately by the nuclear explosions will survive for a limited time period by people eating one another till no one remains alive."

In fact, the United States will not survive even the destruction of Washington and New York in a first strike by India with just two twenty kiloton warheads accompanied by a warning to destroy additional cities like Chicago if there is any retaliation. A first strike by India makes the crucial difference. It will increase India's power millions of times while the United States, though the people will not be eating one another, will be destroyed.