[oceanx]

I applaud you, GB2, for wading into more interesting topics. Sure beats us playing pingpong with the likes of adrenalin ...

And why ally with Muslim countries sinking into irreversible decline, in some cases civil war? Iran, Turkey and Algeria will age as rapidly as Western European countries, but without the wealth buffer to deal with a burgeoning cohort of dependent elderly.

Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan seem ungovernable. Among the largest Muslim countries only Bangladesh and Indonesia seem stable, but they have little relevance to American policy in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia's influence in the region is expressed mainly by financing fundamentalist madrassas (seminaries) in neighboring countries and writing checks to compliant former American presidents as well as "realist" academics. The Saudis will sell us the oil; we do not need to wash their feet in return.

Beware Spengler - David, not Oswald. There is no more poisonous a pill than what he just put on the table, IMO. Everything he said was short-sighted, if not downright malicious.

Focus not on today, but on tomorrow, GB2.

Reality presented itself to the White House in the course of the current give-and-take over Israel and Palestine in the person of Defense Secretary Robert Gates, perhaps the last functioning realist in the Obama administration. The Pentagon, as I noted two weeks ago, views with realistic horror the possibility that Israel might exchange military technology with Russia and India. An immediate concern is the Russian-Indian joint venture to produce a fifth-generation fighter, but drone, anti-missile, and other technology are also a concern. That, there is reason to believe, explains why the US administration abruptly dropped its demand for a complete Israeli freeze on settlement construction and accepted the Israeli offer of a freeze on acquiring new land, once 3,000 homes at present under construction are complete.

As a simple shudra (peasant) sharing the village called earth, I favour the Muslim world viewing the Israeli--Palestinian conflict more as such, and less as a Jew--Muslim conflict. And much less a "Judeo-Christian"--Muslim conflict.

But some of the larger implications here are beyond the scope of what I feel comfortable or knowledgeable to discuss.

China is the fulcrum of American strategy. The world's two largest economies have a natural self-interest in strengthening each other. Francesco Sisci and I proposed an economic alliance between America and China in this space a year ago (see US's road to recovery runs through Beijing Asia Times Online, November 15, 2008).

It goes without saying that the political implications of such an economic alliance would be profound. Forget about the Uyghurs of Xinjiang or the exiled Tibetan spiritual leader, the Dalai Lama: China is an empire in constant risk of provincial rebellion and cannot show mercy to any regional separatist without risking internal dissolution. That is the last thing the West should want; were China to descend into internal instability, America's economic prospects would turn sour for a generation.

This is part sugar-coating to the "poison pill" - which is what he really wants to sell - and part astute observation mixed with plain ol' common sense (the bit about what it will mean to Amrika if China really descends into instability)

India is a prospective friend. The precedent of nuclear cooperation with India as well as India's common interest in suppressing Muslim terrorists brought the world's largest democracy close to the American camp during the Bush administration. India's economic boom, moreover, increases its links to the American economy.

Shrug.

Iran is past bargaining with; it must be ruined. In 2004, Gates and former Jimmy Carter security advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski chaired a Council on Foreign Relations study of Iran that should be held up to undergraduates as a horrible example of self-deception posing as realism.

This is one the "active ingredients" of the poison pill - naked without sugar-coating.

America's strategic priorities are:
Speeding economic recovery;
Maintaining the integrity of the reserve role of the dollar;
Preventing rogue states from acquiring nuclear weapons or prospectively rogue states from using them - I refer to Pakistan;
Fostering the stability of key countries, especially China and India, and, above all,
Maintaining a technological edge of American weaponry so great as to give America strategic flexibility in all theaters.

We'll let our fellow Pakistani members, should they wish, respond to this second "active ingredient" of the poison pill.

And more scraps to "Chindia", the "loyal" hounds. Some might wanna be the wise "hunter" alright ... but the "hounds" have also heard: 飞鸟尽，良弓藏，狡兔死，走狗烹.

It has no strategic interest in tilting at such windmills as:
Iraqi or Afghani democracy;
Palestinian nationhood;
Georgian independence;
North Atlantic Treaty Organization membership for Ukraine.

Well unlike the Neo-cons - he's a little more honest - mainly because he doesn't need to publish in mainstream Amrikan Media to make a living.

To act on these priorities, America requires the cooperation of other countries, and in different ways. China is crucial to economic and monetary success; Russia is crucial to containing nuclear weapons; and India has a key role to play in deterring potential terrorists, including (as my Asia Times Online colleague M K Bhadrakumar has suggested) training and arming Afghanistan's northern tribes against the Taliban.

This is more of the same multi-pronged licking with a forked tongue. BTW, I don't recall Bhadrakumar explicitly endorsing the Balkanization of A-stan (even though it might seem inevitable to some).

We have to focus on core interests and concentrate on those countries that have the competence and will to assist us in pursuing our core interests. Most of the world will ruin itself quickly enough without our help. Our attention should abide with those countries that demonstrate long-term viability.

Everybody needs to think about his/her "core interest". However, if Mr. Goldman's core interest consists of a War of Civilizations without regard to nuance and understanding, it will be a poison pill to whoever takes it.

Sugar-coating just alters the taste. But you know that already.

And thanks again for posting this.