"Fear of a Chinese Planet"

[faithfulguy]

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Fair point. My city of Hong Kong has a very high GDP per capita (higher than the UK, Germany and Japan), but for the majority of Chinese people it is still quite low.

There are a LOT of educated mainlanders who come down to Hong Kong to study or get jobs, so the "brain drain" can be from Chinese city to Chinese city sometimes too. In short, if they come down to HK then China is not really losing brainpower.

You're from Taiwan which also has a very high GDP per capita, so a lot of educated people will want to travel there too.

So "brain drain" is not necessarily bad for Chinese people, if educated mainlanders go to Hong Kong then it's good for China. If educated mainlanders go to Taiwan it is good for Taiwan. So we all benefit at the end if we can convince educated people to come to our cities.

Singapore too has a very high GDP per capita, one of the highest in the world. Singaporeans are Chinese descendants so I would be very happy to see them receive our "brain drain" too.

For people to develop and has the most impact, they need to be in a place of opportunity. When it comes to high tech arena, most of the innovation comes from US companies. When you look at high tech companies such as Google, Yahoo, MS, Intel, Apple, they are all started by Americans but a big portion of the engineers are from Asia. So there are innovative Asians but they are contributing to the US. Its true that more are going back home. But most still stay and will continue to stay in the US for a while. Finally, US immigration policy is to encourage the best and the brightest.

So in terms of technology, especially military technology. US is much much more advance than the rest of the world. Actually, US is setting the pace in terms of high tech. The rest of the world just emulate and follow.

[faithfulguy]

wait and watch....21st century belongs to Asia.


India,Pakistan, china ,Indonesia

probably in next 10 years china will overtake US

---------- Post added at 09:37 AM ---------- Previous post was at 09:37 AM ----------

japan is already 3rd largest economy

Japan is already the 3rd largest economy??? They have been the 2nd largest economy for over 20 years. But I think China will surpass Japan in economic size soon. But the economy of China + Japan is still much less when compare with the US.

[Chinese-Dragon]

For people to develop and has the most impact, they need to be in a place of opportunity. When it comes to high tech arena, most of the innovation comes from US companies. When you look at high tech companies such as Google, Yahoo, MS, Intel, Apple, they are all started by Americans but a big portion of the engineers are from Asia. So there are innovative Asians but they are contributing to the US. Its true that more are going back home. But most still stay and will continue to stay in the US for a while. Finally, US immigration policy is to encourage the best and the brightest.

You are right of course. USA attracts many intelligent Chinese and Taiwanese. The ability to attract educated immigrants is one of the most powerful aspects of American culture.

It's good that many of these people are also coming home though. America is already well developed, we need some of them to come home and to help us modernise the areas of China that have been neglected. Especially the innovative ones.

[ChineseTiger1986]

Japan is already the 3rd largest economy??? They have been the 2nd largest economy for over 20 years. But I think China will surpass Japan in economic size soon. But the economy of China + Japan is still much less when compare with the US.

China + Japan = 10 trillion

US = 14 trillion

What does mean much less???

[prototype]

There could be an Asian centuray. But it most likely not going to happen for another 100 years. The west is still much more advance as compare to Asia so Asia still has a long way to go. Once Asian countries attains GDP that is equivalent to the US, its per capita GDP is still way below that of the US and so US will still attract the best and the brightest from all over the world, including China and India.

for the first time,i totally agree with him,we r predicting future based on imf trends,they r only predicting on today's facts,they have not given any assurance that their predictions will stick right up to it

and this include China overtaking u.s economy or India reaching the 3rd spot

see U.S is a $14 trillion economy,even a 1% growth for them is good in every sense

now lets go back 30 to 40 yrs back,so do u know at what rate was U.S growing back then,at the same rate at what China or India growing now,so based on then imf prediction after 50 years U.S should have still grown by a % in between 8-10

but after the economy of a nation reach a certain position its growth will start to decrease, achieving a 10% growth on $14 trillion is next to impossible,but look at its 1 %,its even greater than India's 10 %

china may overtake U.S but i dont think that will b achieved by the next 15 to 20,though India may very well land up at 3rd position by this time given it is only just 1.5 trillion by now,but after that its story will b same just like that of china

[faithfulguy]

China + Japan = 10 trillion

US = 14 trillion

What does mean much less???

4 trillion is still a lot of money. Won't you think. Its true that China is growing very wealthy and a lot of people are coming out of poverty. So China will be rich first before it can be technologically developed. In the mean time, the US is still stretching its technological and military leads over the rest of the world.

[CardSharp]

All this my GDP is bigger than your GDP talk is economic masturbation, let's just take it one day at a time.

[faithfulguy]

for the first time,i totally agree with him,we r predicting future based on imf trends,they r only predicting on today's facts,they have not given any assurance that their predictions will stick right up to it

and this include China overtaking u.s economy or India reaching the 3rd spot

see U.S is a $14 trillion economy,even a 1% growth for them is good in every sense

now lets go back 30 to 40 yrs back,so do u know at what rate was U.S growing back then,at the same rate at what China or India growing now,so based on then imf prediction after 50 years U.S should have still grown by a % in between 8-10

but after the economy of a nation reach a certain position its growth will start to decrease, achieving a 10% growth on $14 trillion is next to impossible,but look at its 1 %,its even greater than India's 10 %

china may overtake U.S but i dont think that will b achieved by the next 15 to 20,though India may very well land up at 3rd position by this time given it is only just 1.5 trillion by now,but after that its story will b same just like that of china

Actually, US never grow as fast as China or India now. But US has over 200 years of industrialization. China and India only have 30 years or less. Thus the head start. This is the main reason that China and India is only likely to "catch" up to US in terms of technology going into the next century.

[third eye]

China is doing just fine. My recent trips to Shenzen, Dalian, Ningbo, Shanghai & Bejing have shown that there is simply no way anyone in Asia can even remotely come close to what they have achieved. While we squabble, they race ahead.

I have always maintained that military might & economy have to go hand in hand. One without the other will lead to nations like USSR or Japan.

Anyone who fears a neighbor has two options - either catch up or shut up. Conspiring to pour oil in the opponents roots ( to translate an Indian proverb) leads to a situation as has emerged in our neighborhood wherein the ' acid' has started eating into the container.

China, I still maintain is doing just fine.

[prototype]

Actually, US never grow as fast as China or India now. But US has over 200 years of industrialization. China and India only have 30 years or less. Thus the head start. This is the main reason that China and India is only likely to "catch" up to US in terms of technology going into the next century.

no i dont think so,U.S will b atleast 3 decades ahead of their nearest rival in terms of technology,and closing that gap will surely take more than a century,U.S did not reach at this position within just some 30-40 yrs or by virtue of just god's blessing's,they have centuries of hard work behind them

and speaking about their nearest rival in terms of tech,china is no where near it,forget India

[TorontoNoctis]

I'm one of those who does not think China is doing fine. Not because I hate Chinese, but because I think the Chinese are going too fast and doing too much damage to their environment. The question is do the Chinese really want to "catch up" to the USA?

First, consider what it means to "catch up" to the United States. The United States is mostly a service economy. That means they mostly consume. Their greatest products are Windows and the financial sector. While great services and necessary, it's not good to base your economy on. Linux is always around, and the financial BS caused the subprime meltdown.

I would much rather base my economy on a real product, preferably a natural resource like oil or rice, than on Windows and accountants.

So really I worry about China, because it should not be trying to "catch up" to the USA. It should be using its model of government (totalitarian) to give its citizens access to the best education possible, the best science and math and engineering, not business or MBA educations. Like India and Pakistan. This does not require opening a coal factory a month like China is doing but opening world class technical universities like India and Pakistan.

China should not be trying to catch up to the USA. It should be creating its own way, learning from the failures of the USA. It does not make sense to run the same road as your opponent, when you know that road has hundreds of potholes and dangers the opponent barely survived. Better to make your own road or fly .

Unfortunately the leaders of China seem to be blinded by greed and don't realize they are straying from their Confucian roots.

[ChineseTiger1986]

I'm one of those who does not think China is doing fine. Not because I hate Chinese, but because I think the Chinese are going too fast and doing too much damage to their environment. The question is do the Chinese really want to "catch up" to the USA?

First, consider what it means to "catch up" to the United States. The United States is mostly a service economy. That means they mostly consume. Their greatest products are Windows and the financial sector. While great services and necessary, it's not good to base your economy on. Linux is always around, and the financial BS caused the subprime meltdown.

I would much rather base my economy on a real product, preferably a natural resource like oil or rice, than on Windows and accountants.

So really I worry about China, because it should not be trying to "catch up" to the USA. It should be using its model of government (totalitarian) to give its citizens access to the best education possible, the best science and math and engineering, not business or MBA educations. Like India and Pakistan. This does not require opening a coal factory a month like China is doing but opening world class technical universities like India and Pakistan.

China should not be trying to catch up to the USA. It should be creating its own way, learning from the failures of the USA. It does not make sense to run the same road as your opponent, when you know that road has hundreds of potholes and dangers the opponent barely survived. Better to make your own road or fly .

Unfortunately the leaders of China seem to be blinded by greed and don't realize they are straying from their Confucian roots.

Clearly, you know nothing about Chinese. The fact is that China does follow no one. Our own destiny is lying in our hands.

The environmental problems already existed in Mao's era, the current Chinese govt is trying to fix it.

Green Wall of China - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia


China has the biggest number of graduates which means she can produce the largest number of scientific crews.

China leads the world in the number of university graduates: UNESCO Institute for Statistics (3.14)

[TorontoNoctis]

I am worried about where China is headed, not where it is now.

The latest generation of Chinese leaders, fifth generation are mostly finance and management majors. Not engineers or science majors anymore. Meanwhile, opening a coal plant a day and saying you want to "fix it" is ridiculous. China should have focused on a massive, nuclear infrastructure with hundreds of nuclear power plants. Instead it went for the cheap quick fix coal.

Saying that China has the most university graduates is near meaningless, not only because it has the most people, but because some majors are useless. And you are also missing my point. The focus should not be on getting as much income per capita as possible, which is clearly the main focus now.

You can deny these problems exist all you want, but when the peasant revolution happens as has happened hundreds of times in Chinese history against leaders who have lost mandate of heaven you will say I am right. Hopefully people like you get it before millions of Chinese die.

[ChineseTiger1986]

A revolution?

It is not apocalypse, why just destroying the hands that feed you? Yes, there is still starving people in China, but a revolution is no better idea, it could result with more starvation within the country.

And China just plans to build more than hundred nuclear plants to solve the energy crisis.

Nuclear power in China - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Yes, quantity doesn't represent quality in school graduate. However, it is still better than to have many high school dropouts.

[Cow(ard)Boy]

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Thank you, my friend!

I look forward to the "Asian century" and I believe that we will all get along well in the future!

Thats sensible,China and India,if work together and Japan is already doing,can make the world centered in Asia,which is right now in USA and some of europe.