Can Bangladesh economy be stronger than Pakistan's?

[Neo]

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I would like to see more schools and educational reforms in rural area's aswell.
Rural families still have 5-6 children and unfortunately half the kids don't make it to basic education due poverty and traditional family business i.e. working in the fields with the parents.

Governemt must come up with subsidies to ease the burden on poor farmers to allow their children to go to school.

[blain2]

Another important thing I would like to tell you, IT sector is one of the most sensitive area of business because most of the time we have to deal with sensitive data of companies. I do not think Pakistan would be able to attract major companies from IT due to very obvious reasons.
I can say confidently after travelling UK for few months, there is huge fear and negative sentiment for Pakistan in Europe, I think same in US. For positive sentiment India has taken a clear lead, I could see this first time I landed to LHR airport and where ever I go, people simply take notice for work we are doing. I know this was not the case 10 years back, but in next 10 years (which is very short period) there will be huge GAP between Indian and rest of south Asian economies.

If you go to Indian cities you will simply find people doing really hard work. There is clear change in trend for job perspective in India. This year people from my college preferred to go in their core areas rather than joining IT companies, just because no IT companies are ready pay better package, which shows core sectors are taking lead, which is very encouraging sign. Gist of story, there are major positive things happening on ground in India.

Wish you good luck.

My firend I am not sure what line of business you are in but I do see a a lot of inaccuracies and off the mark assumptions in your post.

Another important thing I would like to tell you, IT sector is one of the most sensitive area of business because most of the time we have to deal with sensitive data of companies. I do not think Pakistan would be able to attract major companies from IT due to very obvious reasons.

Companies coming to India for backoffice, call-center type of work can do the same in Pakistan or BD without ever worrying about compromising on the security of their data. No major company hosts Data Centers out of India or Pakistan or BD. All of the major companies and financials have their Data Centers in either the US or Europe. The kind of work which has provided growth to the Indian IT market can very much be done in Pakistan and BD. The issue with instability in Pakistan has to deal with the ability to support call-center/backoffice type of work should there be, lets say riots. These are things that the local governments need to fix in Pakistan. Otherwise there is nothing stopping these companies from coming over...quite a few already have, but its a perception issue that most have to get over. Those who have come over are making money and laughing at others who have yet to make a move into this space in Pakistan.

I can say confidently after travelling UK for few months, there is huge fear and negative sentiment for Pakistan in Europe, I think same in US. For positive sentiment India has taken a clear lead, I could see this first time I landed to LHR airport and where ever I go, people simply take notice for work we are doing. I know this was not the case 10 years back, but in next 10 years (which is very short period) there will be huge GAP between Indian and rest of south Asian economies.

Huge fear and negative sentiment will remain for as long as the GWOT continues. Nothing can be done about it. A lot of it has to do with mis-information and lack of knowledge about what Pakistan can offer. India is in the same boat as most of the SE Asia. Not much going on so there is stability and foreign governments and companies see no disruption to business.

The gap has to increase not because others are not doing anything, rather it has to do with 1.2 billion population of India. For a country the size of India, comparing it to Pakistan or BD is silly any which way you look at it. In everything, India is 10 times the magnitude Pakistan or BD. Maybe a better comparison would be with first world economies to figure out the gap.

If you go to Indian cities you will simply find people doing really hard work.

I was in Pakistan a couple of years ago and caught up with my buddies from school days, they are working like slaves (16-18 hour days) working for Pakistani and MNCs. This is a global phenomena, its not just the Indians who are working hard. All who are part of this global economy have to perform at a much higher level than before...the challenge is the ones who are not a part of this global economy (which all put together in the India, Pakistan and BD) would be a number about a billion or so....the work is cut out for all three of the countries.

[z9-ec]

If you had bothered to check, these datas that you have presented are from IMF's economic outlook Database Sptember 2006 (Check the top right hand corner of the report). Here is the economic outlook report from April 2008.

Report for Selected Countries and Subjects

Check the disparity in the 2007 per capita income in both the report. However these are only the estimates as indicated by the grey shaded areas.

The actual calculated data is below.

World Bank estimates

India - Per Capita GDP
Nominal - $820
PPP - $2460

Pakistan - Per Capita GDP
Nominal - $800
PPP - $2410

Economist's estimates

India - Per Capita GDP
Nominal - $1033
PPP - $2777

Pakistan - Per Capita GDP
Nominal - $871
PPP - $2497

Hope it clears the air.

If you had bothered to check, the date mentioned on World bank reports is dated 2006!!

The report that I mentioned is the latest presented by IMF in collaboration with ADB, World Bank and others.

[Bushroda]

If you had bothered to check, the date mentioned on World bank reports is dated 2006!!

First of all World Bank always calculates data for Jan-Dec period as countries have different financial year endings. So there 2006 data is the latest as per their records. Year 2007 data would be out sometime in July-August when they have acquired all the data and done their calculations.

The report that I mentioned is the latest presented by IMF in collaboration with ADB, World Bank and others.

What a bullcr@p!!! IMF collaborates with ADB/World Bank/others & presents only the estimates????

The figures that you mentioned are from their World Economic Outlook report published in September 2006(Once again check the Upper right hand corner) whereas I presented you the data from their World Economic Outlook report published in April 2008(check the upper right hand corner again). No points for guessing which is the latest report.

However both these reports only have estimates as shown in shaded grey area whereas World Bank & economist have the calculated data & not the estimates. Check all the links, study them & then make another post.

P.S. World economic Outlook report is IMF's inhouse publication & there is absolutely no collaboration with ADB, World Bank, Swiss Bank or anyone else. The opening pretext says it all

A Survey by the IMF staff usually published twice a year. It presents IMF staff economists' analyses of global economic developments during the near and medium term. Chapters give an overview as well as more detailed analysis of the world economy; consider issues affecting industrial countries, developing countries, and economies in transition to market; and address topics of pressing current interest. Annexes, boxes, charts, and an extensive statistical appendix augment the text.

IMF World Economic Outlook Reports List

[salman nedian]

There is a difference sir, bpo companies are different to companies in it services.for bpo companies u dont need a highly educated(skilled) person a person with a good linguistic ability is sufficient because there main duty is customer care where as it sector includes companies like TCS,Infosys,ibm they require very highly skilled workers because theyre work is highly complicated i.e they create new softwares create new system's.
India's major growth is due to these companies not bpo.

I don’t think that most of the revenue in India is generated from software development. IMO call centers generates more money the reason is Call center jobs are not complicated while a s/w requires a lot of time to develop and their Quality control and assurance is not an easy task since a s/w product I not like other products it requires more money, time and effort provided that solution is unique otherwise its difficult to sell.

[Bushroda]

I don’t think that most of the revenue in India is generated from software development. IMO call centers generates more money the reason is Call center jobs are not complicated while a s/w requires a lot of time to develop and their Quality control and assurance is not an easy task since a s/w product I not like other products it requires more money, time and effort provided that solution is unique otherwise its difficult to sell.

Call Centres in India barely generate over 10% of revenue. Nearly 75% of the export revenue comes from the software development. Below is the link

Indian Software Export Figures - Software Industries and Development - Development Informatics Group - IDPM research (School of Environment and Development - The University of Manchester)

The data is upto the last year when total IT/ITES revenue was $32 billion. For confirmation see the notes at the end of the table.

[Flintlock]

Bangladesh has too many frequent natural disasters to grow comfortably. These cyclones/floods/loss of land will increase in the future and cause more problems.

Same thing can be said about the Indian state of Orissa. They have been battling Cyclones for so many centuries that they can't do anything else.

[Neo]

South Asian economies will be dominated by India and Pakistan with Bangladesh and Srilanka taking 3rd and 4th spot. Chauvinism apart this is the hard reality. Bangladesh will have to record more than 10% growth for atleast a decade to surpass Pakistan, its just not going to happen.

[Contrarian]

South Asian economies will be dominated by India and Pakistan with Bangladesh and Srilanka taking 3rd and 4th spot. Chauvinism apart this is the hard reality. Bangladesh will have to record more than 10% growth for atleast a decade to surpass Pakistan, its just not going to happen.

Stranger things have happened. India was considered a basket case from the 60's to the 90's. US donated food to India to survive, the food went directly from the ships to the mouths of the people. The world said India can and never will make it big.

The world never thought China would be able to rise, they never thought that any other country has the potential to challenge USA after the erstwhile Soviet Union.

And these are just small blimps in history.

[mounty]

Bangladesh have advantage bcoz they have huge population living very closly

but it can be their disadvantage too...bcoz cant start new project like gwader

[Vinod2070]

Can it happen? Sure it can. Stranger things have happened and are happening all around us.

Will it happen? Highly doubtful. Given the reasons some people have already outlined. Too many natural disasters. Too few resources compared to the population. The cussed nature of the leadership that refuses to maintain friendly relations with the only country that can help out when needed. Growing fundamentalism et al.

[indiapakistanfriendship]

Will it happen? Highly doubtful. Given the reasons some people have already outlined. Too many natural disasters

I am seriously worried about natural phenomenons affecting BD , studies suggest that BD will be majorly affected by Global warming with significant changes in geography and population migration pattern, I think this will be one of the epic challenges faced by BD in the future and am sure that India , Pakistan and several south asian nations will play a key role suppoting BD in future.

cheers

[Vinod2070]

No one else is any position to offer any serious help when needed. Others may try to use them for their anti-India nuisance value and that's it.

Hope they start thinking about maintaining good relations with their neighbors and not burning bridges and trying to play useless games.

[azmax007]

I did read it somewhere that if Bangladesh keeps up what it's doing it will surpass Pakistan's economy in the years to come and be the 2nd largest economy in South Asia. Pakistan invests heavily on the armed forces while Bangladesh invests in social sectors, empowering women, healthcare, and education. Not to mention Bangladesh is home to BRAC, the largest NGO in the world which virtually empowers the poor to get free edcuation, health care, and skills training to get industrialized jobs. The payments from these jobs allows the workers to increase their standard of living. In the last 10 years Bangladesh's middle class has gotten bigger due to the tremendou opportunies the poor received. Also, currently the military now keeps an eye on politics since 1/11 and so after the new election the military will not allow political instability. The military in Bangladesh cannot stay in power because the people will not let them and also due to the pressure from international community. The International community did acknowledge that Bangladesh is developing at a very fast and unusual rate.

Pakistan needs to invest on the social sector more to increase their GDP. Pakistan also needs to stablize her politics otherwise the economy will be hampered and the only way to do so is education.

As for the idea of intelligent and martial people, it's all bullshit. Pakistanis are equally smart as Bangladeshis, Bengalis just chooses less military while Punjabis choose more military, that's it.

And Vinod2070 is right, things can happen. For example, in Chittagong University a student developed a robot from scraps to do basic houshold chores...and he's not even Japanese, he's Bengali. That student is now talking certain IT compaines in Bangladesh to take his idea to the market. It's all about potential and bangladesh has that, but unlike Pakistan, Bangladeshi people have more freedom to exercise opportunities. In Pakistan the people have a lot of potential but the government system in Pakistan don't let them take it to the next level that's why there is a possible chance Bangladesh's economy may surpass Pakistan's economy.

[MIG_ACE]

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The "Bengalis are more intelligent" theory being bandied about by some people here is very amusing. I don't know much about Bangladeshis, but as far as India is concerned, West Bengal is the only state to consistently vote in the communists to power. Indian communists are notorious for blocking crucial economic reforms for the national economy.(What they do in their state is a diff story) not to mention being more concerned about China's welfare than Indias. Any amount of brains will be insufficient if you keep voting in a govt. which follows archaic and harmful economic policies.