Pakistan Power Report Q3 2010 - (Business Monitor International)
Market: Energy and Utilities
Published Date: 08 Jul 2010
Table of Contents: Pakistan Power Report Q3 2010
Report Type: Market Report
Number of Pages: 62
The new Pakistan Power Report forecasts Pakistan will account for 1.14% of Asia Pacific regional power generation by 2014, with a rising theoretical generation surplus before the countryís substantial transmission losses are taken into account. The Asia Pacific power generation assumption for 2009 is 7,308 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of 2.6% over the previous year. We are forecasting an increase in regional generation to 9,725TWh by 2014, representing a rise of 26.2% in 2010-2014.
Asia Pacific thermal power generation in 2009 totalled an estimated 5,849TWh, accounting for 80.0% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2014 is 7,600TWh, implying a 23.7% growth that reduces the market share of thermal generation to 78.1%. This is thanks largely to environmental concerns promoting renewable sources, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Pakistanís thermal generation in 2009 was an estimated 65TWh, or 1.10% of the regional total. By 2014, the country is expected to account for 0.89% of thermal generation.
Gas is the dominant fuel in Pakistan, accounting for an estimated 50.5% of primary energy demand (PED) in 2009, followed by oil at 28.0%, hydro-electric energy at 9.5% and coal with a 10.6% share. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 5,334mn toe by 2014, representing 24.6% growth from the estimated 2009 level. Pakistanís estimated 2009 market share of 1.63% is set to ease to 1.53% by 2014. The countryís estimated 2TWh of nuclear demand in 2009 is forecast to reach 5TWh by 2014, with its share of the Asia Pacific nuclear market rising from an estimated 0.39% to 0.70% over the period.
Pakistan is ranked 10th behind the Philippines and Indonesia in the updated Power Business Environment Ratings, thanks to its relatively high level of renewables (mostly hydro) usage and healthy energy demand growth prospects. Several country risk factors offset the industry strength, but the country is in a good position to keep clear of Hong Kong and Singapore below.
We now forecast Pakistan real GDP growth averaging 2.96% a year between 2010 and 2014, with the 2010 growth assumption being 2.40%. The population is expected to expand from 163.7mn to 178.9mn, with GDP per capita increasing by 7% and electricity consumption per capita rising by 6%. Power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 72.7TWh in 2009 to 84.8TWh by the end of the forecast period, which provides a rising theoretical generation surplus (before transmission losses, etc), assuming 2.9% average annual growth in electricity generation during 2010-2014.
Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Pakistani electricity generation of 28.6%, which is below average for the Asia Pacific region. This equates to 14.8% in the 2014-2019 period, up from 12.0% in 2010-2014. PED growth is set to increase from 19.8% in 2010-2014 to 25.8%, representing 50.7% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 48% in hydro-power use during 2010-2019 is a key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by just 2% between 2010 and 2019, with nuclear usage up 380% from a low base. More details of the long-term power forecasts can be found at the end of this report.
Pakistan Power Report Q3 2010 Market Report, Industry Analysis and Market Trends