Stumbling Tiger, Leaping Dragon?

[RobbieS]

Quite blunt, this one...

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Stumbling Tiger, Leaping Dragon?
KANTI BAJPAI, TNN, 6 February 2010, 12:00am IST


You don't have to be a foreign policy hawk to be disconcerted by the surging gap between India and China. We in India think that we are the equal of China and that in the decades to come we will surpass it in national power - when actually the opposite is a more likely future. Power is of course not everything in international relations, but to ignore a massive power differential is strategic blindness. At the very least, India must consider its choices as it confronts the widening gap with China.

What is the ratio of national power and living standards between the two countries? China's GDP today is four times that of India. In addition, Chinese per capita GDP is roughly $4,000, India's is $1,000. The average Chinese therefore lives four times better than his Indian counterpart. In fact, this is an underestimation of his relative well-being because educational and health facilities make his life chances better still. If the two countries continue to grow at the rates they have grown in the past decade (India at 6-8 per cent and China at 10-12 per cent), China will have an economy eight times India's in 30 years.

What does this mean for international relations? We could express the difference in various ways, but let us simply cast a comparative eye on the question. For it to hit home, let us note that by 2040 India will be to China as Pakistan is to India. And that may be an optimistic judgment about the gap. In the January/February 2010 issue of the US journal, Foreign Policy, Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Fogel predicts that by 2040 China will have a GDP of $123 trillion and 40 per cent of world output (the US will be next with 14 per cent!). At this point, China will be the most powerful entity on earth by far, as it has been for 18 out of the past 20 centuries of world history (chancellor of Oxford University Chris Patten's estimate). Even if this is an exaggeration, the Chinese dragon will be so big that the rest of the world will have to gulp several times before it says no to Beijing.

Critics of this triumphalist view cite any number of things that could go wrong. There is apparently a huge list of potential catastrophes awaiting China: financial bubbles, an ageing population, regional disparities, growing inequality, ethnic and religious disaffection, environmental collapse, resource scarcities, bad governance, hypernationalism, unchecked populism and so on. Prem Shankar Jha, in his provocative new book, Crouching Dragon, Hidden Tiger, makes the case that the economic gap between India and China is not as great as projected (though any visitor to China will tell you otherwise). Unfortunately, as he notes, while both are beset by problems, China has a better appreciation of its challenges.

What are India's choices as it faces a gargantuan China? It could build its military, enter into alliances, settle its disputes with China, or hide. India could compensate for the huge economic imbalance by massively building its military forces, principally its nuclear forces (to say 1,000 weapons). However, this would be hugely expensive and could set the economy further back. India could, alternatively, enter into an alliance with the other big powers - the US, Russia, and Japan. If China grows as projected, even this counterbalance of forces may not be sufficient. Both options would in any case be provocative to China. A third possibility is for India to settle its disputes with China when the power gap is relatively small. This might propitiate China and leave India safe, for a while. Finally, it could try to hide from China's gaze by tiptoeing through the jungle of international politics and trying not to offend the dragon. This would be virtual capitulation to Chinese power, for the first time in India's history. A judicious combination of the four might be the best way to hold off China - easy enough to conceive, not easy to achieve.

There is one other possibility - that China evolves into a magnanimous hegemon, unlike any previous hegemon in history, and deals generously with the world including India.

Here's hoping.

Stumbling Tiger, Leaping Dragon? - Edit Page - Opinion - Home - The Times of India

[faithfulguy]

Its not likely that China's economy will be 40% of world's any time soon. The author has an overtly exaggerated view of the real scenario and peek too far into the future. From now, anything over 2020 is too far away to predict

[RobbieS]

Originally Posted by faithfulguy

Its not likely that China's economy will be 40% of world's any time soon. The author has an overtly exaggerated view of the real scenario and peek too far into the future. From now, anything over 2020 is too far away to predict

Well with the rate China's growing, who knows?

And I guess its ok for individuals to gaze into the crystal ball. Institutions like Goldman Sachs and IMF do it all the time. Remember the BRIC report by GS in 2004?

[pak-yes]

This single thing is like a breeze of cool air out of otherwise a complete failed foreign policy.

It good to feel that we are friends of Soon to become Super Power.

[Sanchez]

There are at least some truth in the article. The basic fact is the fast increasing gap between China and India. Many Indians are either not aware of this or ignorant when comparing India with China. Pakistan and India are not significantly different when it comes to economic terms, though India might have a better trend of growth. When Indians are thinking they are a lot ahead of Pakistan or capable of competing with China they are making mistakes. Buying weapons from Russia and kowtowing to the US will not be the best protection of India from Chinese threat. When the two countries have to solve the border dispute by force Chinese would make sure to get what is right for China. The military gap is not very big at the moment but it's getting bigger. Chinese military strength will match up to her economy in 5-10 years.

[faithfulguy]

Originally Posted by Sanchez

There are at least some truth in the article. The basic fact is the fast increasing gap between China and India. Many Indians are either not aware of this or ignorant when comparing India with China. Pakistan and India are not significantly different when it comes to economic terms, though India might have a better trend of growth. When Indians are thinking they are a lot ahead of Pakistan or capable of competing with China they are making mistakes. Buying weapons from Russia and kowtowing to the US will not be the best protection of India from Chinese threat. When the two countries have to solve the border dispute by force Chinese would make sure to get what is right for China. The military gap is not very big at the moment but it's getting bigger. Chinese military strength will match up to her economy in 5-10 years.

If China does intend to be a threat to India, then the only choice for India to maintain independent foreign policy is to come under US nuclear umbrella. Otherwise, with the rate of growth between China and India pulling the capabilities of these two nations further apart year after year, India would not be in any position to hold off China in any way, shape or form in the near future. Of course, the Indian guys in this forum do not look at the numbers and claiming that India is closing the gap when the opposit is the truth. The day that India choose to come under the US pretect is when India realize the fact. Unless if India choose to side with China, then India would not be under the protection of the US.

[no_name]

Dragons don't leap, they either crawl or they fly.
It is in China's best interest to keep peace with india. Having stable neighbours helps with developments. The western provinces still have alot to be done.

regards,

[hindustan]

we still need more step

[manglasiva]

This all comparison is really BS...China can't export things in this way in future, because most countries have started to plan / manufacture themselves even countries small countries like BD can give a run for Chinese companies and all their big manufacturing set up won't sustain without export orders, likewise INDIA's IT export also will be under pressure, and BPO sector is such a case, the US presidents recent tax benefits to those who hire local labor.
and nobody foresaw the current recession..

[third eye]

Originally Posted by RobbieS

Quite blunt, this one...

***************************************


Stumbling Tiger, Leaping Dragon?
KANTI BAJPAI, TNN, 6 February 2010, 12:00am IST


You don't have to be a foreign policy hawk to be disconcerted by the surging gap between India and China. We in India think that we are the equal of China and that in the decades to come we will surpass it in national power - when actually the opposite is a more likely future. Power is of course not everything in international relations, but to ignore a massive power differential is strategic blindness. At the very least, India must consider its choices as it confronts the widening gap with China.


Stumbling Tiger, Leaping Dragon? - Edit Page - Opinion - Home - The Times of India

Here lies the prob. Equality must be related to dealings - being an Indep sovereign nations not to match each other .

Both nations have diff systems of governance,diff approaches to problems etc.

Reactions therefore have to be tempered accordingly.

[RobbieS]

Originally Posted by Sanchez

There are at least some truth in the article. The basic fact is the fast increasing gap between China and India. Many Indians are either not aware of this or ignorant when comparing India with China. Pakistan and India are not significantly different when it comes to economic terms, though India might have a better trend of growth. When Indians are thinking they are a lot ahead of Pakistan or capable of competing with China they are making mistakes. Buying weapons from Russia and kowtowing to the US will not be the best protection of India from Chinese threat. When the two countries have to solve the border dispute by force Chinese would make sure to get what is right for China. The military gap is not very big at the moment but it's getting bigger. Chinese military strength will match up to her economy in 5-10 years.

I guess in terms of economic and military power, the Indo-Sino equation is pretty much like the Indo-Pak one. Take out the terror part, and you have the similar amount of distrust, suspicion but a little less of tensions. And like Pak espouses its nuclear weapons state status to counter any pressure from India, so does India vis-a-vis China. I don't think India should live in fear of China. India has enough conventional weapons strength to hold off China in case of war. Just enough time to make the international community step in. Plus there's the nuclear weapons to think about.

But the economic gap is pretty evident, mainly due to China's head start and better policy implementation. India would do well to take lessons from China in implementation.

And I think you overestimate US's influence on India. India has consistently been selfish (and I mean in a good way) in its foreign policy since independence. India doesn't get in too deep in any relation to make it difficult to wriggle out when required. And its the same with US. In most cases, what GoI does is driven more by domestic policy than international pressure.

Don't get me wrong, but I find it strange when Chinese members talk down to India on being a US ally. Agreed China didn't get major help from the West in military relations. But it was mostly Western companies that invested in China in the 70s and helped improve the economy. It were the very same capitalist institutions putting in their money into China that are now doing the same for India.

[faithfulguy]

Originally Posted by RobbieS

Don't get me wrong, but I find it strange when Chinese members talk down to India on being a US ally. Agreed China didn't get major help from the West in military relations. But it was mostly Western companies that invested in China in the 70s and helped improve the economy. It were the very same capitalist institutions putting in their money into China that are now doing the same for India.

Its a total misconception that FDI in china are from western sources. But this is not true. Most are Far Eastern countries with the exception of the US. The greatest source come from Hong Kong. The biggest difference between India and China that most people do not talk about is China's neighbor's vs India's neigbhors in contributing to the countries economic growth. Most of China's neighbors in east Asia are more economically well off than China. As a result, these countries, such as Japan, Singapore and South Korea plus Taiwan and HongKong help invest in China. India must relie on western investment. These other east Asian countries also invest in India but as China is much closer geographically and culturally, and also a bigger consumer market (China just surpass US as the #1 auto market) I do forsee the east asian countries and regions continue to invest heavily in China as compare to India.

[fanboi]

Originally Posted by faithfulguy

Its a total misconception that FDI in china are from western sources. But this is not true. Most are Far Eastern countries with the exception of the US. The greatest source come from Hong Kong. The biggest difference between India and China that most people do not talk about is China's neighbor's vs India's neigbhors in contributing to the countries economic growth. Most of China's neighbors in east Asia are more economically well off than China. As a result, these countries, such as Japan, Singapore and South Korea plus Taiwan and HongKong help invest in China. India must relie on western investment. These other east Asian countries also invest in India but as China is much closer geographically and culturally, and also a bigger consumer market (China just surpass US as the #1 auto market) I do forsee the east asian countries and regions continue to invest heavily in China as compare to India.

Japan invests more in India than China. Not sure about SK etc, I thought HK and Taiwan are China according to you, so according to you that shouldn't be FDI? I doubt Taiwan invests much in the PRC anyway.

[Laughing Buddha]

"One thing to mention that Dragon are extinct and Tigers are still holding ground "

Most of the Economist will not agree on this...

What if there is a another revolution in China

[faithfulguy]

Originally Posted by fanboi

Japan invests more in India than China. Not sure about SK etc, I thought HK and Taiwan are China according to you, so according to you that shouldn't be FDI? I doubt Taiwan invests much in the PRC anyway.

HK is a different region in China so its regard as FDI. Hong Kong is by far the largest source of China's FDI. Also, I know that Japan provide more aid to India than to China but I'm not sure about FDI. Taiwan does invest a lot as I personally know many Taiwanese business moved to China in the last 15 years. In any case, do not count on FDI to be moved from China to India as the majority of FDI to China are not from western countries but East Asia.