MRCA News & Discussions

[CONNAN]

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BY SHIV AROOR

LiveFist - The Best of Indian Defence: The MMRCA Competition: What Next?

Two days ago, I received a mysterious phone-call from a Russian journalist who claimed to have very reliable information that the Indian Air Force and the Defence Ministry had chosen the MiG-35 in the $12-billion medium multirole combat aicraft (MMRCA) competition, and had communicated as much to both MiG chief Mikhail Pogosyan as well as UAC president Alexey Fedorov. Cut. A well-known senior Indian defence analyst, who junketed off to Farnborough this month, assured me just before he left, that the Typhoon was going to sail through to the finish line -- I'd stopped listening by this time, but he said something about "knowing people in the know". Cut.

There's a lot of stuff swimming around out there about the MMRCA, and it's all tantalizing. Rumours of first blood.

At this point in the game, it's common for vendors to pick journalists' brains about what they're hearing. Well, what they're hearing is a lot of noise. A carefully crafted cacophony of permutation, combination and possibility -- some delectably elegant, some morbidly unthinkable. The campaign chiefs from Boeing and Lockheed-Martin, for example, have frequent briefings in Delhi -- thinly veiled opportunities for them to get exchange notes with reporters about where things stand on the MMRCA, what the rumours are, what they're picking up from "people in the know". All of the rumours are tantalizing in their potential to create massive upheaval -- political, technological, doctrinal, what have you. And in the run up to what is expected to be a downselect this year -- but what is also likely to not be a downselect at all -- I thought I'd put down everything I've heard in the last six three months. The structure, I should say right away, does not indicate a descending order of probability. And yet, it might.

For the purpose of clarity, let me state that the six competitors are the RAC-MiG MiG-35, the Boeing F/A-18IN Super Hornet, the Dassault Rafale, the EADS Eurofighter Typhoon, the Saab Gripen IN and the Lockheed-Martin F-16IN Super Viper.

SCENARIO 1: NO DOWNSELECT: All six contenders make the cut. Commercial negotiations begin with all six companies, and bam, they hand it to one. Right through the field evaluation tests (FET), there have been rumours of scrubs, snags, even hearsay that four of the six failed the test leg at Leh. All six competitors independently assured the press that their horses had come through beautifully and that all rumours of climb-rate disappointments and payload inadequacies were malicious nuggets passed around by "vested interests". Can't think of one person who isn't a vested interest, actually. If all six aircraft dodge the "downselect", it'll mean the FET gave the IAF nothing it could really work with in terms of defining what it really wants to go with. Always bear in mind the supremely incomparable airplanes the IAF is working to compare.

SCENARIO 2: NO DOWNSELECT, BUT PREFERENCE INDICATED: All six contenders make the cut, but are presented in the IAF's report to the MoD in descending order of preference. Best of both worlds -- everyone makes it past the first guillotine.

SCENARIO 3: THE NEGATIVE RECOMMENDATION: An interesting one. The IAF submits its report to the MoD along with a list solely indicating the aircraft it definitely doesn't want. The government then takes a political decision among the ones the IAF doesn't mind operating.

SCENARIO 4: SINGLE OUT: IAF chief PV Naik says the MMRCA field evaluation trials make for an international yardstick on how fighters should be evaluated the world over – a masterpiece of a testing templace. Most people believe him, because they’re still trying to figure how a disparate line-up of aircraft can be meaningfully compared with a result-oriented focus. Many were shocked when Boeing elbowed in the Super Hornet into the MMRCA competition way back when the Mirage-2000-V was still in contention and widely believed to be the signature platform for the MMRCA. Things have changed drastically since. This scenario suggests that the IAF has come round to wanting a twin-engine platform. So goodbye F-16IN and Gripen IN.

SCENARIO 5: KEEP IT REAL, KEEP IT MEDIUM: An old scenario that’s more wishful thinking than anything else. There’s nothing “medium” about the Typhoon, Rafale and Super Hornet. So the downselect pushes forward only the MiG-35, the F-16IN and the Gripen IN.

SCENARIO 6: GRIPEN, MIG OUT: The downselect eliminates the Gripen IN and the MiG-35. The former, because it’s Swedish (and woe betide any government that ever buys anything Swedish ever again). The rumour goes that the government has expressly instructed the IAF not to allow the Gripen past the FET phase. The latter because its Russian, and there’s a limit to the whole eggs in one basket thing.

SCENARIO 7: NO OP AESA? GOODBYE!: Only the F-16IN and the F/A-18IN make it because they’re the only two contenders with fully operational AESA radars (the NG APG-80 and the Raytheon APG-79 respectively). The others are work in progress, and the IAF doesn’t want to take a chance. That the IAF has been super-impressed by both American AESAs doesn’t hurt.

SCENARIO 8: TYPHOON OUT: A nightmare scenario for EADS, considering the weight of its pitch. This scenario suggests the Typhoon is ejected from the competition as a result of deficient air-to-ground performance, and that all promises aren’t worth the cost of the airplane.

And these are just eight possible scenarios. I haven’t mentioned the obvious permutations. It’s going to be a yahtzee. Will keep updating this post as I hear more. And, of course, feel free to comment with more scenarios if you’ve heard any.

[jha]

^^^ And this was the post after so much hype...

This shiv aroor guy is irritating as hell at times..
Lets see what mohtarma brings to the table...

[sancho]

SCENARIO 5: KEEP IT REAL, KEEP IT MEDIUM: An old scenario that’s more wishful thinking than anything else. There’s nothing “medium” about the Typhoon, Rafale and Super Hornet. So the downselect pushes forward only the MiG-35, the F-16IN and the Gripen IN.

So much for credibility if he things the Mig 35 is more medium class than Rafale, or EF.

^^^ And this was the post after so much hype...

This shiv aroor guy is irritating as hell at times..
Lets see what mohtarma brings to the table...

Totally agree, he often simply hypes his own opinion in the blog and starts rumors with unknown sources:

I received a mysterious phone-call from a Russian journalist who claimed to have very reliable information

there have been rumours of scrubs, snags, even hearsay that four of the six

His report about the Leh trials:

Four MMRCA Contenders Fail Leh Trials!

It's the latest tidbit on India's $12-billion Medium Multirole Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) competition that's doing the rounds (and it was first reported by The Hindu on Tuesday). Four of the contenders that underwent cold-weather evaluation trials at Leh didn't meet performance requirements. OK, major understatement. Four of the contenders bit dust in Leh. Read that again: four aircraft. That's huge. It's still unclear which part of the Leh test the four aircraft types failed at, though it is quite clear that it was either the switch off/on after landing, or the take-off with meaningful combat load at that altitude. The only thing that appears true is that four aircraft failed the trial -- it is totally anyone's guess which these are. Any want to hazard a try?

This is the article in the Hindu of the same day, he is refering to:

Sweden's Gripens head for AFS Jaisalmer

Ravi Sharma

BANGALORE: Sweden's Gripen NG, the last of the six fighter aircraft that are being evaluated by the Indian Air Force for the $12 billion medium multi-role combat aircraft (MMRCA) deal, left Bangalore on Monday morning for the Air Force Station (AFS) Jaisalmer.

Having gone through a week of performance trials — including a demonstration of air-to-air refuelling and flying manoeuvres — by the IAF's specifically designated MMRCA team here, two Gripens will now complete the remaining part of their flight tests over Pokhran and Leh before heading for the AFS Jamnagar and then to an air base in Sweden.

While one of the Gripens will undertake hot weather trials in and around the AFS Jaisalmer and later take off to perform a dummy run and bomb drop at the Pokhran test range, the other fighter, as part of the cold weather trials, will land in Leh, switch off, refuel and then take off again.

Ministry of Defence officials familiar with the MMRCA trials told The Hindu that while they expect no hiccups during the weapons drop over Pokhran, the Leh exercise proved challenging to the other contenders vying for the MMRCA deal.

The officials confided that four of the five aircraft in the MMRCA competition faced problems starting up in the rarefied atmosphere of Leh, and the IAF had to ask the manufacturers to undertake modifications in the aircraft's fuel systems. The Gripen's evaluation is part of the MMRCA flight trials, which started in August last, when the F/A-18 Hornets arrived here. These were followed by another American fighter, the F-16IN Super Viper. In September, the French Rafale flew over Bangalore. It was followed by Russia's MiG-35 and the European Aeronautic Defence and Space consortium's Eurofighter Typhoon flew in March.

Once the flight trials are completed, the MMRCA evaluation team headed by the Principal Director, Air Staff Requirements, Air Commodore R.K. Dhir will write the technical report, narrowing down the competition to three or four contenders. Thereafter, the commercial bids will be opened, with the lowest bidder — as per India's defence procurement procedures — winning the contract.

Pretty different if you compare it right? Especially if we keep in mind that he directly refers to it.

He often has good infos about Indian arms and techs, but is not really reporting from a neutral point of view, especially in these very small reports without detail, or reliable sources.

[kish]

F18 SH + EF + Gripen NG = Final 3 in tender

is it final news ,, or just a guess ,,

[amit27]

is it final news ,, or just a guess ,,

Its my own guess but I took into account the brazil tender and lifecycle cost of each aircraft.

[KEETARP]

^^^ And this was the post after so much hype...

This shiv aroor guy is irritating as hell at times..
Lets see what mohtarma brings to the table...

Bloody hell , Khoda pahad .......................... nikli cheeti .
Let's wait for Sukhoi girl .

[hazi]

This is just a general question. Are any of the MRCA aicraft going to be more advanced than the Su-30 MKI? How are they going to be more/less advanced than the Su-30 MKI

[anathema]

Bloody hell , Khoda pahad .......................... nikli cheeti .
Let's wait for Sukhoi girl .

Mohotarma is even worse !

[amit27]

This is just a general question. Are any of the MRCA aicraft going to be more advanced than the Su-30 MKI? How are they going to be more/less advanced than the Su-30 MKI

Depends which fighter is selected but AESA will be a new feature and lower RCS if a westen fighter is chosen, net centric ability and new weapons will also be features.

[whocares]

Depends which fighter is selected but AESA will be a new feature and lower RCS if a westen fighter is chosen, net centric ability and new weapons will also be features.

actually, i think we should've had a mix of 280 of these + 120 'bomb the ****' MKIs rather than the other way around.

[amit27]

I'd go for the Gripen NG it is ideal for India on these points

a) single engine means lower cost plus low lifecycle cost
b) low RCS compared to f16 and our present sukhoi 30mki
c) fully netcentric
d) AESA - new technology
e) New weapons of India's choice the NG can be customised to suit India

[praveen007]

i want u to have pataint & wait. iaf doctorine is range+load & only f-18/rafel fits it well. so they will b best for them

[kish]

I'd go for the Gripen NG it is ideal for India on these points

a) single engine means lower cost plus low lifecycle cost
b) low RCS compared to f16 and our present sukhoi 30mki
c) fully netcentric
d) AESA - new technology
e) New weapons of India's choice the NG can be customised to suit India

Does Gripen NG has an operational AESA ,

[kish]

i want u to have pataint & wait. iaf doctorine is range+load & only f-18/rafel fits it well. so they will b best for them

except f18 and f16 which one have oprational AESA.

[amit27]

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Does Gripen NG has an operational AESA ,

The SELEX Galileo’s RAVEN AESA radar will be used on the
Gripin NG.

defence.professionals | defpro.com

It does not matter if it is operational, as USA was the first to use AESA thats why the
f18 and f16 has them at the moment but it will be joined by the EF and Gripin NG soon. By the time India decide who will win the MRCA tender I assume it will take 2 yrs more then AESA will be option for all 4th gen fighters on the list.


The partner of choice for next generation aircraft, SELEX Galileo has been selected by SAAB to jointly develop the AESA radar and IRST solutions for their Gripen NG fighter. The Company’s Raven ES-05 is a wide field of regard radar system optimised for multi-role/swing-role operations, while the Skyward G provides full operational search and track functionality with a stealth capability.