JF-17 Huge Export Potential 3rd world countries sales could go upto 1500

[syedjamilhaider]

Source:
grandestrategy.com/2007/06/light-sabre-for-third-world-fc-1-jf-17.htmlGrande Strategy: A Light Sabre for the Third World: The FC-1 / JF-17

Market viability

As a MiG-21 and F-5 replacement, there is obviously a huge market, perhaps a lot larger than everyone realizes. The large number of lesser-known Third World airforces in the world could all chip in to make a significant order. It is my belief that the FC-1 final count could be closer to1500. Below is indicated potential sales count by country that the FC-1 could possibly expect over the next 2 decades.

Country Projected Sales

Albania
20

Argentina
50

Azerbaijan
6

Bangladesh
20

Bolivia
30

China
150

Congo
30

Egypt
150

Eritrea
12

Ethiopia
30

Indonesia
6

Iran
150

Lebanon
6

Malaysia
40

Morocco
20

Myanmar
30

Nigeria
30

North Korea
200

Pakistan
250

Sri Lanka
12

Sudan
20

Syria
50

Tanzania
6

Thailand
40

Venezuela
40

Zimbabwe
30



However, there is a caveat. The FC-1 is unlikely to get to these sales figures with the RD-93.

The bottleneck is not just Russian politics, but the quality and reliability of the engine itself. One cannot viably create a single fighter success story with an engine that has a rejection rate of 33% rejection rate, low MTBF, and costs more than the AL-31. The Taishan engine is ideal in this regard as it also opens up a future maintenance legacy, given that it will be used in the future Chinese twin-engined fighter.

[MZUBAIR]

LONDON — Pakistan is making the rounds of Arab allies talking about its new fighter-jet. ShareThis

Officials said Pakistan has briefed such countries as Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Lebanon, Morocco, Saudi Arabia and Sudan on the new fighter, jointly developed with China.
Under an agreement with Beijing, a majority of the JF-17 could be produced and assembled in Pakistan, Middle East Newsline reported.

"The airplane would reach close to the capabilities of existing U.S. and Russian aircraft, but for about half the price," an official said.

Pakistani Defense Secretary Shahid Siddiq said eight countries have expressed interest in JF-17. So far, no export sales have been announced.
In March 2009, Pakistan signed a contract for 42 JF-17s for the air force. The contract with China's state-owned CATIC, called for coproduction of the aircraft, with the expectation that 15 would be manufactured in the first year of the project by the state-owned Pakistan Aeronautical Complex.

Pakistan has sought to become a significant military supplier to Gulf Cooperation Council and Middle East states. So far, Pakistan's leading military clients have been Saudi Arabia and Sudan.

The JF-17 program was launched in 1998 and the design was completed three years later. So far, eight prototypes have been sent to Pakistan for trials.

[Canaan]

Inshallah all success to Pakistan and of course China, you did a good job and deserve it.
I hope the good productivity and hard work by pakistanis would spill over and influence the arab people. We need to be self-reliant and able to take matters in our own hands instaed of being merely the sheep that are directed by their shepherd, which in our case isn't God but the West.

[luftwaffe]

sayedjamil bhai Thailand is going for JAS Gripen, malaysia no news yet, bangladesh no news yet, China might order more than 150 later on after 2012 to replace its aging J-7s/A-5s, Azerbaijan might go for 12-20, Indonesia are offered all russian planes Russian market is open for them don't expect indonesia to buy FC-1/JF-17, Zimbabwe can't afford 30 might they might get out used F-7s after 2012 for their next 7-10 years, Egyptians might want to buy but US will offer to upgrade their F-16s and FC-1/JF-17 will be off the list isn't right at all.

MZUBAIR...Moroccans buying US F-16s might increase the fleet, Algerians have russian market open SU-30/MIG 29 purchases..Yes JF-17/FC-1 will have a fair market share but some of the countries mentioned are either for russian or US market unless we make them cancel those procurements and offer them juiced up JF-17.

Wished Saudis could replace their darn F-5s with JF-17s but heck US is hovering over their heads..same goes to Malaysia they have currently 11-12 squadrons of F-5 i really hope if Malaysia buys JF-17s it'll boost their Air Force replacing F-5 junkies.. but we can't predict we really might hit jackpot with countires who are operating oldies fleet like F-5 etc...

[aboutimeee]

And i dont think iran will buy 150 jf-17 either, they have there own big projects going on.
Aircraft and Helicopters

* Azarakhsh - modified copy of U.S. F-5 Freedom Fighter, one-seat fighter aircraft, and combat capable trainer. [1][2][3]
* Saegheh 80 - fighter aircraft. [4] Second generation Azarakhsh with a twin upright tail configuration.
* Shafaq - advanced light fighter/trainer, still in development. [5]
* IR.An-140. - licensed production of Russian Antonov An-140 [6]
* Parastoo - propeller-driven training aircraft. Reverse engineered Beech F33 Bonanza. [7][3][8]
* Dorna - training aircraft [9][3]
* JT2-2 Tazarv - third generation of the Dorna mentioned above.[2] Still in prototype stage.
* Simorgh(aircraft)- training aircraft.[10]
* Fajr F.3 - Indigenous trainer aircraft
* Panha 2091 - overhauled U.S. AH-1 Cobra refitted with indigenous components.[11]
* Shabaviz 2061 - overhauled U.S. Bell 206 JetRanger refitted with indigenous components.[11]
* Shabaviz 275 - overhauled U.S. Bell 205 JetRanger refitted with indigenous components[11]
* Bell 214 - Reverse engineered and built in Iran
* HESA Shahed 278 - Developed from Bell 206 & Panha Shabaviz 2061



PS: now i notice they have alot of trainer projects and this Saegheh 80 looks interesting.

[Zob]

i think countries in trested in JF-17 would be SOMALIA,SUDAN,MAYBE NORTH KOREA.....no big powers who have money to purcahse top of the line fighters would opt for JF-17s ....

[arsalanaslam123]

well the export of the palne have to happen in order to make the project a success!


the project of JF17 will only move on if it get export orders as this will briing fundings to further improve and modify it into a state-of-the-art machine!
this is what made the F16z a big succes that it still is a big name in fighter planes export market, the reason being that the LM was abel to generate funds by exporting the plane and upgrading it inensively in each comming block!

[Zaki]

i know The Arab countries has good money to spare but they will not consider JF-17 as their option but don't also forget they have financially helped us in past whether its military aircrafts or the ecnomy

I am expecting if not large but at least few squadrons towards Arab countries and this has happened in past with Trainer Aircrafts as well. I am pretty sure they will Insha'Allah buy some squadrons from us to further reduce the price or simply donate some money if not interested at all

[yh1]

Bangladesh and Sri Lanka might also be buyers.

[saiko]

1500 seems rather optimistic.

Most Mig-21 or derivative operators paid a fraction of the cost of the JF-17 (even adjusting for inflation) per unit.

Assuming they do choose to upgrade to the JF-17 from the Mig-21, they will maintain fewer units.

[arsalanaslam123]

reply to zaki shafqat post:

well why dont we focus more on exploiting market potential and our resources, both technical and manual!
brother no personal attack or offense, but we must not keep relaying on donations, i mean come on yaar, we must develop the JF17 to an extent that countries feel pride in flying them, we must look for some initial low scale exports, all of us know countries like azerbijan have shown intrest in the plane, lets make them know it is the best they can have with this sort of price tag. once we have sold some planes we must use those funds in further improving the standards, this money should not go to SWISS ACCOUNTS that how we can make JF17 a fighter the worldwide users would be proud of!!!

what do you people say!

[muslim282]

First of all, wether or not anybody purchases the thunder will make no dent to pakistans future plans as both china and pakistan do have a requirement in huge numbers for these jets.
Yes orders and sales will help both nations financially as they do to all nations and companies selling arms. Another thing is that this is in itself a massive leap for pakistan, as their are very few nations that actually manufacture and sell jets.
I don,t know about the numbers but I bet you their will be many interested parties. You see when the west and europe sell weapons they are usually downgraded or of reduced capability. In some cases (as for israel) they are given a clear edge over their neighbours(F-16,s) ie. egypt, jordan etc.
One of the things about the thunder was that it was meant to be a real bang for the buck eg. BVR, room for AESA etc in the future. This would allow many countries access to jets which may not be superior to their western counter parts but at least not downgraded models held to ransom through spare parts.
Integrated to BVR and stand off weapons such as the SD10 and RAAD this would be a considerable step up by countries operating planes such as Mig21,23,27 and older 29,s. Also mirage III, F1, F5s, etc.
I do believe that not 1500 but rather at least their is potential for around 200 to 500 apart from china and pakistan.
So in the end the combined numbers of all nations using could be 1000+.
This would be a very strong way of selling the project to potential partners ie:- engine manufacturers and avionics suppliers in the west especially considering their is a rescession and arms companies are taking a bit of a battering with finances and jobs.
One other thing, as we know mirage2000 production has come to an end, the blue prints and manufacturing rights/equipment along with all the know how was offered to india on condition they order the rafale in the MRCA contest. But they refused (l don,t know why?).
This has meant that the m2000 engine the snecma m53-p2 is of no use in future french plans ie. the rafale. It would be ideal for the thunder and is alot more reliable than any russian trash. Could their be a possibility to aquire such an engine (TOT).

[arsalanaslam123]

yes integrating a more powerfull engine to the planes meant to be build for the PAF will be a nice idea!

for export there are a number of options as the JF17 is said to be manufactured keeping in mind the space for these modifications, so if the M2000 engine is good enough to attract or satisfy export customers we must go fot it with ToT if possible.

[satishkumarcsc]

Jf 17 is a good product. It is a cheap light weight aircraft. It is more like a Tata Nano to the fighter aircraft market. If it dosent sell then it is only bad marketing. China has huge experience and clout in those countries. Most probably they might all buy it.

[imiakhtar]

Originally Posted by syedjamilhaider

Source:
grandestrategy.com/2007/06/light-sabre-for-third-world-fc-1-jf-17.htmlGrande Strategy: A Light Sabre for the Third World: The FC-1 / JF-17


However, there is a caveat. The FC-1 is unlikely to get to these sales figures with the RD-93.

The bottleneck is not just Russian politics, but the quality and reliability of the engine itself. One cannot viably create a single fighter success story with an engine that has a rejection rate of 33% rejection rate, low MTBF, and costs more than the AL-31. The Taishan engine is ideal in this regard as it also opens up a future maintenance legacy, given that it will be used in the future Chinese twin-engined fighter.

Erm no, there is no caveat. Regardless of whether it gets a new engine or not, the JF-17 will be lucky if it breaks the 500 mark especially in this credit crunch.

North Korea order 200???

Whoever came up with this list was obviously having a laugh.