PAF should've invested more on J-10s rather than JF-17s

[Luftwaffe]

---

---

Gone with the Wind..that era passed for sure we've not learned from our mistakes...
I've a question so far non has answered or is avoiding over n over in this forum...
Why is Pakistan Air Force's stuck up to short term plans??why not long term plans? plz don't tell me due to lack of finances..if we had originally 40 F-16s to start with and carried on with it till this date why can't we do it again with Rafael?? I would never had invested in F-16 purchases again from the US instead would have gone for 24 Rafales. We have to keep that in our minds that sooner or later infrastructure has to be setup for whatever next procurement is aside from F-16s....had we purchsed 24 rafale the cost could have been atleast 1.9 billion dollars for 24 Rafales and rest setting up infrastructure cost could addup to same amount that we are just paying US that is 3 Billion Dollars. even thought my estimates might be wrong but one thing is clear it would have cost the same amount we r giving US and that's just plain stupidity to ditch a rafale for F-16. It was the most suitable time to act at that time approaching France.. we live in a world and think about 5-10 years..had we planned for next 20 years rafale was the best option and sooner or later if and only if we are going to get rafale again the infrastructure setting up comes under discussions and again we'll back off from the deal crying out loud its this and that.

[hj786]

Why is Pakistan Air Force's stuck up to short term plans??

Why should they tell you their long term plans?
Ever read a book called Sun Tzu? Look it up.

"All warfare is based on imagination and deception."

Why would you want your enemy to know what your plans are? If he knows what they are, he can counter them. How will he counter your plans if he does not know what they are?
PAF is full of secrets. Didn't you read the post by Sir MuradK about JF-17's actual TWR? Even now they do not acknowledge any BVR capability, even though there are reports that they have tested BVR AAMs years back.#

Also, please don't think that because the block-52 is based on an airframe from the 70s, it is a bad aircraft - it is worth every penny or PAF wouldn't have bought it. Check this out:
http://www.defence.pk/gallery/showphoto.php?photo=7611

[qsaark]

contd:.................paf has already made the coup-de-grace on the pakistani state.

This was exactly the point I was trying to make. The punch word is RELIABLE source. I dont care the reliable source is China or France or any other country. US may be making best of the war planes, but they are NOT RELIABLE especially when it comes to deal with muslim countries in general and Pakistan in particular. Especially in the context of India-Pakistan.

[MastanKhan]

This was exactly the point I was trying to make. The punch word is RELIABLE source. I dont care the reliable source is China or France or any other country. US may be making best of the war planes, but they are NOT RELIABLE especially when it comes to deal with muslim countries in general and Pakistan in particular. Especially in the context of India-Pakistan.

Qsaark,

Once we have the equipment---we can manage easily for five to seven years---after that, it starts getting difficult---but still can be manageable through other means---

But my problem is differnt that that---you see my reasoning is that our sanctions came off in 2001-2002 and that has been six years by now----and we still don't have a flying model of the BLK 52 parked in our garage---what is it we have, maybe just four F 16's MLU---the problem here lies with the inherent mindset of the PAF---they were not ready to decide at the oppurtune moment---they kept jumping from one product to the other----they had extremely poor bargaining capabilities---they could not understand the importance of time----the Musharraf handshake and confidence building measure put them into a slumber---it gave them a feeling of a false sense of security. They were put to sleep by the importance that the world had fawned upon them----they were put to sleep by all different kinds of offers from world aircraft manufacturers----they were just like a child in the candy store---the owner stated---kiddo get four of the best items you want---the child does not know what to pick and what to discard.

When I look at the situation technically---we have already lost the war with india in december 2008---we had nothing to show up to fight the war with ( AIR POWER )----just some obsolete aircraft---which may not have been able to fly out of their own way---india allowed to let us live one more time within the same decade---within five to ten years from now----they will pay a heavy price for that---. It was not our ability to counter india----but rather the lack of confidence in their equipment and flyers that india backed down. Otherwise PAF had given them every other reason to take over.

We make our own mistakes and then blame the americans for letting us fall into our own trap.

[MastanKhan]

AUTOBIOGRAPHY OF PAF IN FIVE SHORT CHAPTERS


ACTUALLY THIS IS MY OWN AS WELL:---


I. I walk, down the street. There is a deep hole in the sidewalk. I fall in I am lost... I am helpless it isn’t my fault. It takes forever to find a way out.


II. I walk down the same street. There is a deep hole in the sidewalk. I pretend I don’t see it. I fall in again. I can’t believe I am in the same place. but, it isn’t my fault It still takes a long time to
get out.


III. I walk down the same street There is a deep hole in the sidewalk. I see it is there. I still fall in...it’s a habit. my eyes are open. I know where I am.
It is my fault. I get out immediately


IV. I walk down the same street. There is a deep hole in the sidewalk. I walk around ,.


V. I walk down another street

[BoggedDown]

I agree most of the things MastanKhan said regarding PAF procurement policy.
I would describe PAF as an institution which become "paralisys of analysis". It tries always to get "most bang out of least buck". But sometime that back fires and its decision seems to be to little to late.

1. The US sanctions were lifted on 2002. So why it took 3/4 years to just finalize the agreements for F16s. F16s are the planes PAF know well and alwys wanted. They did not need any evaluation or trial so what hell was to negotiate more. So the planes should have been order for quick delivery and even some of the weapons systems could have been order later.

2. We always complain US being unreliable due to sanctions and F16 restrictions. But do we ever thought why US sactions us in the first place?
The reason US sanction us because it knows that sacons have effect on us and it can control us through it. Since 80's PAF (and Pakistans foreign policy)
has put all eggs in one basket and got damn bugs of F16s in its heads, so it does not know any other things than F16s. It seems F16s are the only planes made in this world and no other is good enough for PAF. If PAF was cleaver it would have more balance procurement policies and spread the risk with multi vendors from different countries make and model. If PAF had bought Mirage 2000 in 90s, it would not be in the deep ****, right now it is in. Also US would know that we have alternatives and would be less prone to sanctions.

3. F16s are damn fine planes and worth every dime they cost. Moreover we will be paying their cost through US military aid. No other western planes has this cost benefit. France does not give us military aid, so for Rafals we have to pay every pennies from public swate and blood. Only chinese planes have these benifits but their planes may have capability but not credibility (which is also important to have detterence). So F16s are good buy but it should be the begining and not end. PAF should have at least another planes from western source either Eurofighter or Rafale. Ofcourse the current plans for JF17s and FC20 should be continued with any cost and with more dedication and contribution.

[TOPGUN]

I totally agree with Master khan & Bogged down! we get wat we can and get a bang for the $buck$ simple for those who cant understand this logic! Second we need more
f-16's forsure i would say after the first batch of 18 new ones we go for the 18 more atleast since that has been offered to us and still on the table! furthermore, we should get more j-10's forsure and i would like to see some j-11's if possible in our inv again reality strikes everytime after on in between a nice dream funds is wat it all comes down too so lets see inshallah PAF has a good future ahead !!

[qsaark]

I agree most of the things MastanKhan said regarding PAF procurement policy................. We always complain US being unreliable due to sanctions and F16 restrictions. But do we ever thought why US sactions us in the first place?..................... F16s are damn fine planes and worth every dime they cost. Moreover we will be paying their cost through US military aid..............So F16s are good buy but it should be the begining and not end

We have to decide, do we want to be blackmailed by the US and as a result getting our national security jeopardized. Or we want to spend our own money to buy aircrafts from more reliable sources. Begging and self-respect never go hand in hand. That is why the top priority at this point should be to improve the economy. Without a good economy we will always remain dependant and vulnerable. I might be wrong, but instead of buying more embargo-prone F-16s, we might just want to procure a reasonable number of decent long range SAMs. This will give us some room to breath till we add large number of JF-17s and start getting J-10s.

[maqsad]

In my opinion PAF and GOP should move away from dependence on the US. People have mentioned a lot about how the various jet fighters given to PAF by the US have been state of the art in the past, for example the F-16s that were donated during the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan and the sabres prior to that. Well there are two points regarding those older planes back in the times which should be pondered.

Firstly, decades ago the amount of electronics and especially computerized electronics inside the top fighters was minimal. Since it was so simplistic back then it was extremely hard, if not impossible, for US engineers and scientists to design a backdoor in those planes which could "switch them off" whenever the US or anyone else with that information decided. Consequently it was easier for Pakistanis to detect such traps.

Nowadays the amount of electronics and computerization in fighter jets is astounding. The amount of specialized chips, customized firmware and software that goes into a jetfighter is so infinitely complex that finding an implanted trojan horse inside these complex systems would be like looking for a needle in a haystack--and even if Pakistnai engineers and scientists found a couple of needles there is no knowing if they missed others or not. The bottom line is that the US can quite possibly switch off the latest and greatest PAF jetfighters whereas before they could not do so with the Sabres and older F-16s. As I read stories about the US congress so generously offering to "upgrade" pakistani F-16s it's occured to me that this upgrade possibly involves installing invisible circuit breakers too, making those planes potentiall more useless than they were before the overhaul.


Secondly, the old state of the art planes given to PAF by the US used to be the best class of fighters around. During those times PAF was a world class airforce in the top 10 or maybe top 5 even who knows. All because of access to the best equipment. Now, today the best fighter in the world is the F-22 raptor. When will pakistan get this? Never ever ever ever. The US has no intention of everrrr giving Pakistan state of the art fighters again!!! Can't you people tell? Decades ago when the US had a choice of giving PAF 1st rate, 2nd rate and 3rd rate planes they chose to give PAF 1st rate fighter jets that could not be backdoored with secret circuitbreakers. Those days are gone forever. I don't think those days will ever come back. My feeling is that from now on the only aircraft that the US intends to give to PAF are 2nd rate and 3rd rate jetfighters which are also backdoored with circuitbreakers so the pentagon can decide when to malfunction them if they so choose.


So anyway these two serious problems confronting PAF have a solution--technical collaboration with the Chinese. Pakistani scientists and engineers have been given access to the design of the JF-17s from the ground up and in fact are even invited to participate. This virtually eliminates the possibility of the JF-17s having a "backdoor circuitbreaker" because the designs are shared with Pakistanis and besides that China is a much more reliable military for Pakistan than the United States--nobody doubts that, do they? The pak-sino joint collaboration is what is going to save the PAF from dependence on the US. And frankly I don't trust France too much either--they don't offer anyone TOT or joint production.


In my opinion GOP and PAF should only induct aircraft that have been partially or completely designed and built within Pakistan for the sake of safety and security. Buying such critical components made in the US is just not an option any more. There is one word for the quality of aircraft that the US intends PAF to have in the future--garbage!

[All-Green]

We can all safely conclude that it is indeed a blessing for us that Chinese aviation industry is advancing at an unprecedented rate.
Whereas the quality may not be on par with western systems, in a decade or so we are sure to have much more mature and capable systems at our disposal thanks to this development.
We have an opportunity to ride piggyback on the progressing Chinese dragon so all avenues should be explored to fully avail this opportunity in terms of long term technological advancement. It is imperative that in parallel Pakistan should enhance its aviation industry with Chinese help to the level that we should be heavily involved in subsystem design and production within next decade.
We have the brains and it is a matter of careful investment and business acumen.
Not everything can be done by the men in uniform so private companies shall have to be setup, we can invite China to setup its companies here and create jobs for our talented engineers, initially a limited setup shall also help us by a great deal.
Defense contracting is a concept that has to be established in order for the industry to truly flourish. After all it is---all business!

As far as F-16 is concerned it is being bought with US aid which is always quite defined (in terms of usage) and the amount we are using is for Defense spending, therefore not buying F-16 is quite a bizarre thing to do.
F-16 is a stopgap measure and badly needed one, FC-20 and JF-17 will need some time before we shall be able to deploy them in combat, till that happens F-16s are the major line of defense, make no mistake about it.
Even with FC-20 and JF-17s our F-16 squadrons will still be the most serious threat against any enemy air force for quite some time.

As far the delay in getting equipment from US is concerned, this kind of indecision is becoming habitual and one can hope that PAF and GOP do not repeat such delays in future!

[Luftwaffe]

hj786 u don't understand do you??? F-16 is a potent fighter but its time we change out supplier...no argument on this..tomw in suppose next 7 years us offers you a suppose special blk 55 F-16 for Pakistan i am sure u guys will says chalo chaleeyee lets get it. Times changed need to get over with this F-16 fever even a super hero gets old..jf-17, j-10 and since we do not know the truth about JXX or any other version of J-10 so next inline should be Rafale..thanks but no thanks i am no more freakin crazy fan of F-16 though i acknowledge its a best jet.....Yes we need to define our future plans.

[BoggedDown]

We Pakistanis are typical emotional people with black or white mentality. First it was Amerkka, Amerkka, Amerikaa and then China, China, China, everything from china. But life is not a zero sum game, you need carefully analyse risks and spread risks with muiltiple choices. PAF should not made same mistake of putting all eggs in one baskets rather it should procure from multiple sources.

1. F16 procurement is right decision because it will be paid with US military aid. US is not reliable supplier to Pakistan as proven already but we should have multiple suppliers and not to depend solely on US. This will prevent US to play the same game again and we will be imune to US sanctions. But we should never made US to become our enemy, the concequence in that case will be much horrible. Anyway, we have to change our mentality to beg planes from others. Nobody "give" planes and if given there are always strings attached. As the old saying: "do not count the legs of donated horse", so F16s usage are restricted because they are paid with US aid. Rather we should buy planes from others according to our choice and spending power. As F16s are being bugged, well I am not ruling it out completely but it is kind if going to the limit of paranoid thinking. Again, it just shows the need to procure from multiple sources, so to minimize the risks if such thing does happen.


2. JF17 and FC20 is correct decision because we will get TOT and have much influence in their devlopement. But Chinese planes can be capability wise good one, specially when comparing with their costs. But they lack credibility because they were never used successfully in any war, so they are week in detterence value. The detternce is very important becuse enemy should not have any misconception or wrong perception to take an opportunity to start war. As currently happening, India is threatening war with Pakistan because it thinks Pakistan is week, specially PAF is week so this will have very bad impact on economy, foreign relation and socio-political environment of Pakistan.

3. Also we should also procure some european ones like Eurofighter or Rafale because they are known to build credible fighters. But these are very expensive and Pakistan have to spent some serious cash of its own. But with long term credit facilties, it is not imposible like we paid Agustas 90B submarines from France.

[qsaark]

JF17 and FC20 is correct decision because we will get TOT and have much influence in their devlopement. But Chinese planes can be capability wise good one, specially when comparing with their costs. But they lack credibility because they were never used successfully in any war, so they are week in detterence value. The is very important becuse enemy should not have any misconception or wrong perception to take an opportunity to start war. As currently happening, India is threatening war with Pakistan because it thinks Pakistan is week, specially PAF is week so this will have very bad impact on economy, foreign relation and socio-political environment of Pakistan

I agree with you on the most part, except for the above. When we inducted the F-16s in the early 80s, it was not combat proven was it? Even few aerial kills against much inferior Su-22s and Su-25 or transport planes such as An-26s/An-24 doesn’t prove much. F-16 has been used by Israelis against whom? Labanese MiG21s and by USAF against Iraqi air force (only one AMRAAM kill of a MiG-25 and another of a MiG-23). What kind of combat proven record is this? At any rate, I am not saying that F-16 is not a good machine, it is great indeed. But except for what is gathered from the simulations or from joint exercises (which still lack several dimensions of real time hostilities), F-16 has not faced other fighters of its class in a real world (except for one incident when a Turkish F-16 was shot down by a Greek Mirage 2000 in 1996).

At the time of its induction in the PAF, F-16 lacked as much credibility as much any other new fighter jet. F-86 and F-104 were different; they had a proven track record thanks to the Korean and Vietnam wars. In my opinion (any one can disagree with it), deterrence doesn’t only come from knowing the actual capabilities of your adversary’s weapons (because than you can develop tactics to blunt that edge) but it also comes from NOT knowing what a machine is capable of doing. This reminds me of the Su-15, which were only opertated by the Russians and were always looked with caution by the NATO.

[batmannow]

Qsaark,

Once we have the equipment---we can manage easily for five to seven years---after that, it starts getting difficult---but still can be manageable through other means---

But my problem is differnt that that---you see my reasoning is that our sanctions came off in 2001-2002 and that has been six years by now----and we still don't have a flying model of the BLK 52 parked in our garage---what is it we have, maybe just four F 16's MLU---the problem here lies with the inherent mindset of the PAF---they were not ready to decide at the oppurtune moment---they kept jumping from one product to the other----they had extremely poor bargaining capabilities---they could not understand the importance of time----the Musharraf handshake and confidence building measure put them into a slumber---it gave them a feeling of a false sense of security. They were put to sleep by the importance that the world had fawned upon them----they were put to sleep by all different kinds of offers from world aircraft manufacturers----they were just like a child in the candy store---the owner stated---kiddo get four of the best items you want---the child does not know what to pick and what to discard.

When I look at the situation technically---we have already lost the war with india in december 2008---we had nothing to show up to fight the war with ( AIR POWER )----just some obsolete aircraft---which may not have been able to fly out of their own way---india allowed to let us live one more time within the same decade---within five to ten years from now----they will pay a heavy price for that---. It was not our ability to counter india----but rather the lack of confidence in their equipment and flyers that india backed down. Otherwise PAF had given them every other reason to take over.

We make our own mistakes and then blame the americans for letting us fall into our own trap.

Dear MastanKhan;sir
i have a simple question!
if paf have already lost the war with india in december 2008, thn how comes , a pakistani eagle got a "LOCK ON" on a IAF SU30MKI?
plz describe it.
thanks

[maqsad]

---

---

Some members here say that the F-16s were purchased with US military aid but honestly I don't see the direct connection. The last batch of F-16s were purchased by Nawaz Sharif. Now, if these were donations tied directly to military aid then why was Pakistan trying to get a refund, why was Bill Clinton trying to arrange a refund? According to this article the GOP was actually trying to get rid of F-16s, officially because they were not being delivered but possibly also because they were now overpriced garbage after 10 years of sitting in the hangers? If I buy a state of the art computer from Dell today for $3,000 and they hold it back and deliver it in 2015 to me then that computer is no longer worth $3,000. It is probably worth $200 by then.

http://www.f-16.net/f-16_users_article14.html



Finally, on December 1st, 1998, the New Zealand Government announced that it would lease-buy the 28 Pakistani F-16s stored at the AMARC. Three days later, the United States said they hoped for an 'early and fair' agreement on how to compensate Islamabad for its aborted purchase of US F-16 fighters. President Clinton briefed Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif on US efforts to compensate Pakistan for the $658 million it paid for the 28 F-16s. US officials said the United States has already paid $157 million of this back to Islamabad, raising the money by selling aircraft components to other countries. New Zealand agreed to pay some $105 million over 10 years to lease the fighters, providing additional funds that could be used to give Pakistan some of its money back.

This again supports my opinion that since the 1990s and into the future if Pakistan attempts to deal with the US(or France) for aircraft then one way or another, circumstances will ensure that the aircraft are garbage! The US(and probably not even France) can be considered a reliable supplier of aircraft. Also since it is becoming easier and easier to secretly install "circuit breakers" into the electronics of MODERN jetfighters it is even more important that as much as possible, the future planes in PAF should be partly designed in Pakistan--mainly relating to the firmware in these planes.

And I am not saying US military aid should be refused, just that it should not be wasted on the wrong equipment.