120,000 Indian troops for Afghanistan or hot air

**Ratus Ratus** · 01-01-2009, 04:09 PM

I put this here but if its in the wrong forum, Mods just have it moved..

Ok some real things to look at seriously consider.
Also has this actually come to the notice of the GoP and Military??

ORBAT.COM
0230 December 30, 2008

Quote:

• Correction: India mulling offer of 120,000 troops for Afghanistan Thanks to some quick work by Bill Roggio and Mandeep Singh Bajwa we were able to avoid getting a big smack on our news story yesterday. India has not offered US troops, but is working on a proposal to make an offer, to the new Administration. We got the military details because the military was quick off the mark with a response.
• So today you should have the details of the formations etc. India is earmarking - in case the proposal is made and accepted.
• Nonetheless, when planning goes as far as to identify specific units, a force commander, and matters such as the battle-training schools will be set up, you have to see this is completely serious from India's view.

The following:
"India offers US 120,000 troops for Afghanistan" appeared at ORABT.COM on or before 29 Dec 2008

The following complete quote comes from another forum

Quote:

India offers US 120,000 troops for Afghanistan

Please note that Pakistan has withdrawn a second divisional HQ from the NWFP. We assume its is HQ 23 Division plus the one brigade that went with the HQ to NWFP; Mandeep Singh Bajwa will let us know when he has confirmation. we are approaching the point where two-thirds of the reinforcements sent west are in the process of withdrawing. Please also note Bill Roggio at Long War Journal reports that in the Orakzi agency, one of the seven tribal agencies of the NWFP, Taliban has enforced Sharia law on 15 of 21 tribes in the agency. In other words, the Talibanization of the NWFP is proceeding rapidly. We also have an analysis on why Pakistani soldiers are refusing to fight the insurgents - we already knew why, but for the first time we have information from someone on the scene. We will give it to you tomorrow. But all in all, the US by insisting Pakistan fight the insurgents set itself up for failure. Again, we have said this before, we can now say it from another angle. US policy in the region has to change dramatically if there is to be hope of success in Afghanistan.

Our trusty correspondent, Mandeep Singh Bajwa, informed us this morning that India has offered to send 120,000 troops to Afghanistan. Naturally we asked Mandeep "are we being used by the Indians in a psyops game to put pressure on Pakistan?" Not that the Government of India knows we exist, but in all the movies about the media the Editor always asks if the paper is being played.

Mandeep's answer, paraphrased, was this: "I don't know at what level the offer has been made, but the Indian Army and Air Force are down to identifying specific units, formations, and squadrons..." - details, as we said, at Long War Journal - "...as well as discussing a specific name for force commander, plus working on the details of pre-deployment training, so this is a lot more elaborate than needed for a psyops game.'

We'd prefer to discuss this after we learn more, rather than waste your time with elaborate theories spun out of nothing ("Orbat.com's military sources say..."). But the following points are immediately apparent.

For the new US administration, this offer would be heaven-sent and just making it would put the US Government in debt to the Indians - "your other friends/allies talked, we walked." The administration could turn around to to its own people, and say: "Americans, you complain we are carrying the Afghan burden by ourselves, now we have a partner."

At Orbat.com we've been constantly talking about the need for more manpower; well, here you have a whacking big increment of manpower. With US/Allied troops it takes one to 75% of what Orbat.com considers a minimum force if Afghanistan is to be won.

In one deft swoop, India forces the Americans to chose Delhi over Islamabad. To the Indians the constant US attempt to "balance" the two countries has been a source of serious blood pressure since the 1940s; obviously if the Americans accept it has to be India First from now on and Pakistan gets marginalized. Moreover, the Indians put America up the creek without the paddle regarding Pakistan: "what is it your so-called ally is doing, compared to what we are willing to do."

The devious cunning of the Indian move becomes more apparent when you consider if the US government refuses, the American people are going to get on the Government's case: "The Indians are offering and you're still sticking with those slimey two-timers the Pakistanis?"

For India, offering a huge contingent takes the pressure off the Indian government to act aggressively against Pakistan. India does not have a launch a single sortie against Pakistan to punish it for acting against India. Indian government can tell its own people: "What good will a pinprick do? The Israelis have been bashing up the Palestinians for two decades, and where are the results? What we are doing is to strike a hard blow at Pakistan without crossing the Pakistan border and getting beat up by everyone for provoking war."

Plus India neatly destroys Pakistan's strategic depth objective. The Indians have been wanting to get into the act in Afghanistan for several years, because they know a Taliban government means more fundamentalist pressure on Pakistan and thereby on India. But the Americans have been refusing India help for fear of offending the Pakistanis. For India to get into Afghanistan in force is to again change the paradigm of Indian-Pakistani relations as happened in 1971 when India split East Bengal from Pakistan. For the last almost 40 years India's efforts to marginalize Pakistan have been stymied. If the US accepts the Indian offer, India gains hugely.

But right now a lot of American decision-makers do not care if Pakistan is offended because they see the latter has no interest in fighting the insurgents or helping the US against the Taliban. Once alternate supply routes are available, US can write off Pakistan and as a consequence, paradoxically, vastly increase its leverage in that country.

As for Pakistani/jihadi retaliation against India or the Indian contingent in Afghanistan, we've said before the Indians don't care. Their point is India is squarely in the sights of the jihadis: India is already under severe, sustained attack and unable to retaliate. As for the security of the Indian troops, that really is the last thing the Indians are concerned about. They want to go to Afghanistan to fight, not to protect their troops against suicide bombers.

Two other minor points in passing. By making this offer, India takes the wind out of Pakistan's sails because the latter has very successful turned the world's attention from the Bombay atrocity to getting the world to stop escalation between India and Pakistan. Every day that goes by, India has less diplomatic/geopolitical freedom to hit Pakistan. But if India has offered several divisions for Afghanistan, obviously the last thing the Indians are thinking of is attacking Pakistan - 3/4th of the Army troops (as opposed to the CI troops) India is earmarking for Afghanistan are from the three strike corps. So India undercuts Pakistani claims that Delhi is preparing to attack.

The second point we find interesting. PRC knows if Pakistan falls to the jihadis, Sinkiang is the next target. By offering to go to Afghanistan, India is directly helping Beijing. Which puts Beijing in a very awkward spot as India is a big rival for influence in Asia. Not only will Indians be helping PRC, if China does send troops to Afghanistan, Delhi will canoodle with Washington without competition from China. The Chinese will have no choice but to join the Afghan venture or lose influence in South and Central Asia, and with Washington.

To sum up: Orbat.com has been second to none in bashing the Government of India as incompetent and impotent. But with this offer, India has overnight changed the rules of game in South/Central Asia and struck a potentially fatal blow at Pakistan. In the end, this could become much, much bigger by an order of magnitude than breaking off East Pakistan in 1971.

orbat.com
Writer of original post comments
This is going through some serious considerations, Orbat.com contains some esteemed members of the Indian Foreign Service as well as one of them is a moderator at think-tank BR.

This is what Mandeep had to say
Quote:

Quote:

For those wondering whether India is prepared to send troops to Afghanistan let me assure you that serious consideration is being given to the proposal. It makes real sense, never more so than at this particular time.Domestically it'll be a real winner with everyone on board except the Commies whom no one takes seriously any more in any case.

How will the troops be maintained ? If the US is successful (and when they put their mind and will to it they more often than not usually are) in opening up an alternate logistical route, well then that's how we'll ensure that our troops get their supplies. That also means that the US no longer hase any stake in allying with Pakistan which is more of a nuisance, to put it mildly than a partner in any sense of the word.

As for Orbat.Com's credibility those who've read our work over the years will understand that we don't get our facts from the newspapers and they're most often right.

Ravi Rikhye from Orbat.com makes the following comment via a message as he was not at that time able to log in to the forum I got this from..

Quote:

Lou, I tried to register but it wont let me, I've emailed the HELP people. This is the message I wanted to post:

Bill Roggio of The Long War Journal has impeccable contacts at Centcom. He tell us that the Khyber operation is being led - again - by the Frontier Corps. This in itself shows the Pakistanis are not serious because (1) The FC are the weakest units in Pakistan, and (2) the men are recuited locally and are part and parcel of the tribal culture.

People have to understand that the Pakistan does NOT want to fight the Taliban because the Taliban on both sides of the border are instruments of Pakistan military and foreign policy. They are in effect another arm of the Pakistan military.

Pakistan's entire strategy in NWFP has been to do the absolute minimum needed to keep the US from punishing Pakistan, and to keep the money the US gives monthly for the so called CI operations. The Pakistan Army fights ONLY when it is directly challenged by some tribal faction or the other, or if it needs to get rid of a tribal faction that's growing too big for its boots.

This does not mean the Pakistanis are evil, all it means is the US arrival in Afghanistan and destruction of the Taliban also destroyed the entire Pakistani policy of strategic depth and of denying India a foothold in Afghanistan (which has traditionally been close to India). The primary Pakistan purpose is to get the US/West out of Afghanistan, and our people say Afghanistan is just about done - 85% is under Taliban control, the situation is much worse than the press realizes.

The US military/state/intelligence in the field is perfectly aware of what is going on, but when it tells Washington, Washington's basic reply is: "5% of Pakistani cooperation is better than no cooperation. What's our alternative if we abandon Pakistan? Where are the supplies going to go through?" (BTW, US is moving something like 1.2-million tons a year through Pakistan) Not only are alternate routes at least a year away, but they create their own problems because Russia is going to want a very great deal for agreeing.

This entire mess has come about because the US wants to fight the GWOT with what? 50 brigade equivalents for the whole world? You just cannot substiute manpower with technology in CI, there are no ifs, buts, and maybes. How many troops can the US send, 10 brigades? That's a drop in the sea, and what is more, IMHO, the way the west conducts operations, with force protection as its primary goal, is a one way street to defeat.

US has so far refused India's help because obviously Pakistan will not allow it, and supplies have to go through Pakistan. India can supply any amount of manpower you want, and its soldiers are used to hardship, they are used to casualties, and they a tenth of the tonnage the US does, But then how to supply the Indians?

The situation is getting so bad that we hear murmers of: "Declare Pakistan a failed state in Baluchistan/NWFP, seize Gwader, and force a route to south Afghanistan to join the "garland" highway route around Afghanistan."

Frankly, we ourselves were a bit amazed that anyone would come up with this option even as a thought experiment.

But then, we asked ourselves: "What's the alternative? If the US cannopt get the Indians into Afghanistan, afghanistan is lost in 2009, and if someone it survives the coming year, in 2010.:

US is between a rock and a very inflexible place. Some really, really hard decisions will have to be made or else the game is over. No course of action is without the gravest of risks.

But you know what? No one in their right mind would have launched a corss-English Channel operation 60 years ago. The entire idea was insane from the word Go to start planning. If any of a hundred things had not fell into place, you would have seen the greatest defeat America has ever seen. But the US knew it had no choice, and it was in the war to win at all costs. So it followed a simple military rule: the point of warfare is to impose your will on the enemy. Its not a question of what's realistic or not. Its a question of how badly you want to win.

And you further know what? From that day after 9/11, the US has not been serious about winning the GWOT.

Another post, by the report writer:

Post #1

Quote:

As the writer of the original report let me assure everyone that the offer is under serious consideration by the Indian Govt. They'd like to present it to the incoming US President as a sort of goodwill offer.However its early days yet and the project will take some time to near realisation.

The offer is certainly worthwhile. India can deploy large numbers of battle-hardened troops with decades of experience fighting Jihadi terrorists and guerrillas in Kashmir and other insurgents in India's North-East. Unlike European nations the Indians can take casualties in the national interest, they have a grudge with the Taliban and Indian troops will take absolute pleasure in taking on Pakistani-sponsored forces.

If an alternative supply route is worked out one can then be quite sure that India will deploy troops in Afghanistan.There's a lot of anger in India over continuing Jihadi terrorism which threatens social and communal harmony and economic progress.

Post #2

Quote:

Nothing is decided yet. I would think that initially at least div+ would be sent with all the necessary supporting arms including air support and transport and special forces. There's also a strong likelihood of specialised CI units like the RR being deployed.

The issue will necessarily become politicised with it being milked for all its worth in an election year.

Ok now before all you collective zealots jump in with pure national pride and SFA, don’t.

The above is serious for more than pure nationalism both Pakistan, Indian, not to mention USA, Russia and China to name a few nations this will directly cross.

First a number of this magnitude will be bigger than that of the current US forces. This places the US in second place troop number wise.
So will the US still be able to maintain their control of Ops in Afghanistan?
Also face a few things how do you move a whole Div into Afghanistan? This opens a few big problems but also the approaches may be detrimental to all. Direct route through Pakistan, via Iran, (I thought there was a cooling of Iran – India relations), though Iran may allow it as it would soften up the anti Iran rhetoric from the US.

Other questions, where will these troops be deployed and under what overall control?

There are many serious questions to ask and I have not even started to list them all.

Hence need for a real discussion and not to cloud this with nationalistic drivel.

el nino · 01-01-2009, 07:55 PM

There is a massive game going on between India & Pakistan.

THIS WAR ON TERROR & USA new strategic relationship with INDIA has created a triangle..

Pakistani is using war on terror to obtain $2 billion a year from USA in aid. The bulk of this aid is going to PAK military to buy conventional weapons to fight a future war with india.

India has crept into Afghanistan with USA invitation and the indians are all over the Afghan Gov,t with aid both economic and military. Now India wud more than happy to station 120,000 troops in AFGHAN. esp if USA pays for the cost.

THIS WILL CREATE A 2ND FRONT FOR INDIA..

USA is going to pay both india & pak.

But USA has its goals/designs

Patriot · 01-01-2009, 08:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by el nino

There is a massive game going on between India & Pakistan.

THIS WAR ON TERROR & USA new strategic relationship with INDIA has created a triangle..

Pakistani is using war on terror to obtain $2 billion a year from USA in aid. The bulk of this aid is going to PAK military to buy conventional weapons to fight a future war with india.

India has crept into Afghanistan with USA invitation and the indians are all over the Afghan Gov,t with aid both economic and military. Now India wud more than happy to station 120,000 troops in AFGHAN. esp if USA pays for the cost.

THIS WILL CREATE A 2ND FRONT FOR INDIA..

USA is going to pay both india & pak.

But USA has its goals/designs

Typical Indian Mind my friend.You do reliaze these 2 billion dollars comes with strings attached?Do you know how many Pakistanis have died and how much war on terror have cost us?We don't fight with sticks.We have to use ammo and a lot of other stuff which costs $$.Anyway we don't really need very huge military now because we do have WMD.Thanks for your useful analysis.
Ratus,
I think India is trying to use it's cold start doctrine and send troops so they can easily finance BLA terrorists.They have no interest in Afghanistan whatsoever except financing terror against Pakistan.Anyhow if it happens then i believe Indians Army will be treated like Soviet Army was treated in 80's.Also keep in mind that US/NATO army is much better trained then Indian Army.

**AgNoStIc MuSliM** · 01-01-2009, 08:04 PM

Quote:

Pakistani is using war on terror to obtain $2 billion a year from USA in aid. The bulk of this aid is going to PAK military to buy conventional weapons to fight a future war with india.

The bulk of the 'aid' Pakistan is receiving is going towards reimbursement of logistical and operational expenses. As such it is not exactly 'aid'.

The US is paying us for services rendered, and what we do with teh money afterwords is our business.

A smaller section of the 'aid package' is actually aid for budgetary support and military assistance I believe, but I do not believe the Bush administration attached conditions to that aid in terms of how it was to be utilized.

Lets get facts and figures correct please, there is a lot of misleading and half true information in the media on this issue.

I would be extremely surprised if the Indians offered 100,000 plus troops. You know very well that unless the US wanted to participate and support an invasion of Pakistan, these troops would be useless in terms of a conflict with Pakistan.

Would India deplete its conventional forces to this extent on the Indo-Pak or India-China border? Or will these numbers not make a significant difference?

Numbers in the order of 10,000 make more sense.

I call 'not true' on this story based on the troop numbers mentioned.

XYON · 01-01-2009, 08:47 PM

Indian regulars troops in Afghanistan?? Oh My! the Taliban suicide squads would have a field day while the US soldier watches (sitting comfortably in his armored bunker) the poor, under nourished, ill equipped Indian bloke being blown up instead of him! The Indian troops will be a legitimate targets for the Afghans as being the invaders in Afghanistan along with the US! I think the Indian Army will exhaust its troop numbers within weeks of deployment and would need more to replace the dead ones!

Pakistan should actually welcome Indian troops in Afghanistan and then just sit back and enjoy the view!! Any shred of relationship which India now enjoys with the likes of the Northern Alliance chaps will be up in smoke in no time.

Afghanistan will be another Kashmir for the Indian Army...ONLY MUCH WORSE! I cannot wait!

Pashtun · 01-01-2009, 08:53 PM

Yup, no surprises if even it takes place. This was the original plan behind executing the Mumbai Attacks, so India can be used as a forward strategy against Pakistan (for Israel) and all the while America can get additional troops in Afghanistan to unload her tension of losing Allied troops one by one in recent and coming times.

They played briliiantly by duping India into this trap. I must admit.

And it's a win win situation for Pakistan if Pak plays all the right moves (i.e. winning Afghan hearts so the guns can be turned towards them), not that the guns wont be turned towards them because the code of Pakhtunwali is very simple, doesn't matter who you are, if you are here to inflict damage on me, you are my enemy #1.

**ajpirzada** · 01-01-2009, 11:20 PM

seriosuly this will be the worst nightmare indian army will ever see. they are goin to afghanistan to fight afghanis. they should look at the history or afghanistan then see wat happened to USSR and now wat is happening to US. it wont bring any panic in pakistan. except this will make it easier for pak to attack indian installments in afghanistan later blaming it on al qaeda.

Cheetah786 · 01-02-2009, 12:03 AM

Quote:

el nino;259995]There is a massive game going on between India & Pakistan

.
I dont remmeber Pakistan inviting Americans to attack afghanistan talibans only demand was to give them the proof that osama was involved in 911which usa refused and attacked afghanistan pakistan or india has what to do with it.

Quote:

THIS WAR ON TERROR & USA new strategic relationship with INDIA has created a triangle..

Only a fool believes that this relation ship just started this is been going on for years its just out in the open now.

Quote:

Pakistani is using war on terror to obtain $2 billion a year from USA in aid. The bulk of this aid is going to PAK military to buy conventional weapons to fight a future war with india.

I would love to have you give me a link where state department is claiming to be giving 2billion/yr in Aid most of the money comming to pakistan is for every day expenses of Nato operations being reimbursed.
Whats the cost of operating USA bases in european countries and paying for that to europeans is considered aid or only in pakistans case we are suppose to provide services free of charge wanna use it pay for it isnt that the capitalisum.

Quote:

India has crept into Afghanistan with USA invitation and the indians are all over the Afghan Gov,t with aid both economic and military. Now India wud more than happy to station 120,000 troops in AFGHAN. esp if USA pays for the cost.

Afghan governemnt is only in some parts of kabul and indians are more then welcome to be part of that karzai has over 200 body gurads and even then he is confided to few parts of the city.
And As far as indians sending in 120,000 troops into afghanistan just a simple question how are they going to get there supplies through pakistan or by air.

Quote:

THIS WILL CREATE A 2ND FRONT FOR INDIA

..
120,000 troops tied down in afghanistan isnt a front for india its a massive expense and could cost billions/yr

Quote:

USA is going to pay both india & pak.

From where is this money going to come from American government is barrowing havily just to pay for it now.

Quote:

But USA has its goals/designs

Yeah the only Goal of Americans should be to pack up and leave just like the british and canadians Are or get stuck in this never ending story and barrow form chinese and japanies to pay for it.

waraich66 · 01-02-2009, 12:34 AM

In gurilla war numbers of soilders not much count ,but now NATO considering all options and reshaping their war strategy .
US dont have any other choice to get help of PA .India have already basas in Afghanistan presently involved in terroist activities in balouchistan and FATA .
US is now focusing on Afghanistan more then iraq but now its too late not possible to reverse the direction of winds flowing in favours of mujahdeen.

was · 01-02-2009, 02:48 AM

if indians send troops india will be on the hitlist of mullas

waraich66 · 01-02-2009, 02:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by was

if indians send troops india will be on the hitlist of mullas

Afghan Shourah already declared war against NATO ,if INDIA send troops then for them it will be easy to go inside india and attack indian miltery targets.Choice is in hand of india

el nino · 01-02-2009, 03:07 AM

OBAMA is ready to pull out of IRAQ....

Afghanistan & the SWAT border aera is the number one USA strategy from 2009 onwards.

OBAMA has already stated if more troops needed in AFGHNISTAN and more money then he will get this done.

From india,s veiw point KRAZI and his GOV,T uis a indo USA puppet.

India will send troops to assist USA not just in Afghnistan but also sea lanes and other overseas joint operations.

LOOK with your eye open.

USA give india nuke tech.

USA sells india C130J herceles transports

USA sells india trenton troop carrier 10,000 tonne helicopter carrier

USA will win MRCA deal for F18 super hornets

USA discusses PAC3 ABM system with india.

CIA RAW & MOSSAD all working together to tackle Taliban and other terror groups in South Asia.

Aamir Zia · 01-02-2009, 03:09 AM

It will be disaster for India

I will happy to see indian forces there & Be killed

& yeah then Puston will Declare war with INDIA & will enter on Kashmir ..

Still no Pastuns in Kashmir

el nino · 01-02-2009, 03:12 AM

USA equipment listed is for most useful for joint operations with usa.

This is why USA will also win MRCA contract in October 2009

**Omar1984** · 01-02-2009, 03:14 AM

I dont care if india sends a million troops to Afghanistan, then there'll be less troops in Kashmir better for the Kashmiri people.

Atleast Afghans live with guns, Kashmiris dont even have that to protect themselves from hindu troops.

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