India at risk of being caught in US-Pak crossfire

[StormShadow]

---

---

When elephants fight, it is the grassland that gets trampled. The daily war of words between the US and Pakistan doesn’t quite make for a fight between combatants in the same heavyweight category, but even so, as a result of this duel, it a third party—India—that faces a heightened risk on two counts.

The first is a near-term proximate threat; the second is a long-term strategic threat; India is sadly ill-prepared to face either of them with any earnestness.

The context in which those threats to India arise is the ongoing slam-fest between the US and Pakistan, which has been building up for a while, but has acquired a rare intensity in recent weeks. The US, which for long soft-pedalled Indian concerns about the role of the ISI in sponsoring terror against India, has since the May killing of Osama bin Laden, come face-to-face with Pakistan’s double-game.

And after last fortnight’s attacks on US interests in Afghanistan, which the US says was masterminded by the ISI and operationalised through the Haqqani network, even those within the US security establishment who had been talking up the help they had been securing from the Pakistan military are now openly acknowledging the extent of Pakistan’s perfidy.

Senior US officials have hinted that they will do “whatever it takes” to protect their security interests in Afghanistan – including, presumably, undertake unilateral strikes (of the sorts that led to the bin Laden killing) in Pakistan. There is increasing speculation that we’ll see aggressive ‘hot pursuit’ of terrorists who strike in Afghanistan and retreat into Pakistan. And since the Durand Line, which separates Pakistan from Afghanistan, isn’t an internationally recognised border, US will reason its actions are legitimate.

In other words, there is a very real risk of an escalation of tension along the Afghan-Pakistan border. There’s one easy way for Pakistan to divert international attention away from that: by ratcheting up tension—and the prospect of a nuclear war— along its eastern flank, with India.

It is in this context that India faces a significant near-term threat of an audacious Pakistan-sponsored terrorist strike in India as an excuse for Pakistan to rattle its nuclear sabres.

Just as in November 2008, when Pakistan masterminded the Mumbai attacks to escalate tension in the eastern front so as to back off from counter-terrorism operations along the ****** border, from a Pakistani perspective, India is a sitting duck for a terrorist strike.

Its calculation will be that the Indian government will perforce have to respond to the provocation, which will escalate tension along their border. And just as in November 2008, the US will likely urge India to exercise restraint – because the build-up of troops on Pakistan’s eastern front is taking away attention from where it wants it: along the Durand Line.

The second threat to India comes from a long-term strategic perspective. Even today, there are US officials who, for all their distrust of Pakistan, buy the argument that the roots of terrorism in the subcontinent can be traced to the unresolved Kashmir issue. Despite compelling evidence that the even the Kashmir-focussed Pakistani terrorists groups have a larger agenda – the disintegration of a secular India and a global jihad that targets even America – the line has found traction among a section of US policymakers.

The risk then is that if US officials pullback from the brinkmanship games with Pakistan, and begin once again to count on its cooperation, they could perhaps turn up the pressure on India to resolve the Kashmir dispute.

Over the past fortnight, as India espoused an independent foreign policy line on Palestine, and underlined that with a planned visit by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to Iran, US officials have hinted darkly that they were looking for patterns from India’s foreign policy stance. If they perceive that India isn’t perhaps “pliant” enough on the votes and issues that matter to the US, they can turn up the heat on India vis-a-vis Kashmir if it gives them a chance to advance their own strategic interests in Afghanistan.

Either way, India faces the risk of collateral damage from the US-Pak slamfest.

India at risk of being caught in US-Pak crossfire | Firstpost

[pmukherjee]

Whoever wrote this piece, he clearly did not apply his mind.

Durand Line, which separates Pakistan from Afghanistan, isn’t an internationally recognised border, US will reason its actions are legitimate. - Who says it is not internationally recognised? Pakistan recognises it. It has formed the working border between Afghanistan and Pakistan for more than half a century. The Americans and ISF in Afghanistan recognises it. It maybe poorly demarkated and certain factions in Afghanistan may claim not to recognise it but that does not erase it(from the maps).

In the event of an US-Pakistan armed conflict(highly improbable), There is no conceivable way in which we will get involved. The US bases are in Afghanistan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Turkey etc All in the west. Diego Garcia is far to the south. The known US aircraft carrier locations which might have a bearing on the operations are as follows:- CVN-77 George H.W. Bush - Arabian Sea. CVN-74 John C. Stennis - somewhere in the Indian Ocean. CVN-65 Enterprise - with the US Fifth/Sixth Fleet (Persian Gulf, Red Sea, Arabian Sea). How does India which is to the East get involved in all this? American military aircraft do not have the permission to overfly Indian territory nor do they need to, keeping the disposition of US forces in the vicinity in mind. We do not have any military bases of foreign powers on our soil. At the most, commercial aircraft overflying Pakistan may have to detour.

"US officials have hinted darkly that they were looking for patterns from India’s foreign policy stance. If they perceive that India isn’t perhaps “pliant” enough on the votes and issues that matter to the US, they can turn up the heat on India vis-a-vis Kashmir" - India's independent foreign policy did not start last week. Yes, we have been under a lot of pressure to toe certain lines but the Indian desire to chart its own course without worrying about extraneous factors is very strong. The stronger we get the more independent will our FP get.
If America antagonises India as the article suggests, it will just deal itself a double whammy. I doubt they will want that, not now anyway.

[Patrician]

When elephants fight, it is the grassland that gets trampled.

So Pakistan is an elephant and India is grass which will get trampled?

Social throes of legalized marijuana.

[SMC]

So Pakistan is an elephant and India is grass which will get trampled?

Social throes of legalized marijuana.

[EastWest]

The recent statement by krishna is just a signal to Pak that "if your attacked by US, don't take us down with you, we only want what's better (yeah right) for Pakistan", but if something happens to Pakistan, i'm sure india won't be spared, if we go down then we will drag our good ol neighbor india down with us to the grave.

really!!! how will u do that???

send in more terrorists and commit more 26/11's ???

[nuclearpak]

Is there a base in Oman of the US. ? I dont think so.

[King123]

Is there a base in Oman of the US. ? I dont think so.

US has around 20-30 different kind of bases in Middle-east and Afghanistan/Iraq.

List of United States military bases - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

They have bases in Kuwait, UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Israel, Turkey, Iraq, Afghanistan and more.

[pmukherjee]

US has around 20-30 different kind of bases in Middle-east and Afghanistan/Iraq.

List of United States military bases - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

They have bases in Kuwait, UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Israel, Turkey, Iraq, Afghanistan and more.

Thumrait Air Base, Oman
17°39'58"N 54°01'29"E
Oman, perhaps the strongest supporter of the US presence in the Gulf, signed an access agreement with the United States in 1981, an unpopular time to do so. It hosts three Air Force pre-positioning sites with support equipment for 26,000 personnel as well as required equipment and fuel to maintain three air bases............
Thumrait Air Base

Masirah, Oman
20°40'32"N 58°53'26"E
As of 2002, it appeared that the "Tent City" located at Masirah, Oman, and housing US military personel had been named Camp Justice.The island of Masirah is the location of a former RAF military airfield now belonging to the Royal Air Force of Oman (RAFO) which has played a vital part in numerous middle-eastern conflicts since it was established.....
http://www.globalsecurity.org/milita...ty/masirah.htm

Sorry, this post was intended for Nuclearpak #6

[GORKHALI]

---

---

Is there a base in Oman of the US. ? I dont think so.

are you planning for something big mate ??