Pakistan called a ‘wild card’ in intelligence forecast

[Judas Iscariote]

Pakistan called a ‘wild card’ in intelligence forecast

* US intelligence report says northwestern territories will remain ‘poorly governed’
* Food, water will be scarce, advanced weapons plentiful
* China, India likely to join United States atop a multipolar world
* Qaeda’s weaknesses to attract broad-based support might cause it to decay
* Iran, Turkey, Indonesia seen gaining power

WASHINGTON: Pakistan has been called a ‘wild card’, whose northwestern territories will remain ‘poorly governed’, as cross-border activities continue to cause instability in nearby areas of Afghanistan.

According to a report – Global Trends 2025 – issued by the National Intelligence Council on Thursday, Afghanistan will remain an essentially tribally-centred nation facing continual conflict. The future of Iraq does not look much better. China, however, is projected to emerge as the world’s second strongest economic power after the United States, while the latter will have “less power in a multipolar world than it has enjoyed for many decades”. Russia has the potential to be richer and more powerful, but only if it expands and diversifies its economy, predicts the report.

US economic and political clout will decline over the next two decades and the world will be more dangerous, with food and water scarce and advanced weapons plentiful, the report projected.

The analysis also said the current financial crisis on Wall Street is just the first phase of a global economic reordering. The US dollar’s role as the world’s major currency would weaken to become a “first among equals,” the report said.

The outlook is intended to inform US president-elect Barack Obama of factors that will influence global events. It is based on a year-long global survey of experts and trends by US intelligence analysts.

“The next 20 years of transition to a new system are fraught with risks,” said the report, which was more pessimistic about US influence and the potential for conflict than the last outlook for 2020.

Thomas Fingar, chairman of the intelligence council and deputy national director of intelligence for analysis, said harmful outcomes were not inevitable.

“It is not beyond the mind of human beings, or political systems, (or) in some cases (the) working of market mechanisms to address and alleviate if not solve these problems,” Fingar told reporters. “We could have a better world in 2025.”

China and India, following a “state capitalism” economic model, were likely to join the US atop a multi-polar world and compete for influence, the report said.

Russia’s potential was less certain, depending on its energy wealth and internal investment. But Iran, Turkey and Indonesia were also seen gaining power.

A world with multiple power centres has been less stable than one with a single or two rival superpowers, and there was a growing potential for conflict, the report said.

Global warming will be felt, and water, food and energy constraints may fuel conflict over resources.

“Strategic rivalries are most likely to revolve around trade, investments and technological innovation and acquisition, but we cannot rule out a 19th century-like scenario of arms races, territorial expansion and military rivalries,” the report said.

“Types of conflict we have not seen for a while — such as over resources — could re-emerge,” it said. .

There was a greater, but still small, risk of nuclear attack, based on spreading technologies and the weakening of international non-proliferation systems.

The report said terrorism would likely be a factor in 2025 but suggested that Al Qaeda’s ‘terrorist wave’ might be breaking up.

“Al Qaeda’s weaknesses – unachievable strategic objectives, inability to attract broad-based support, and self-destructive actions – might cause it to decay sooner than many people think,” it said.

“Because history suggests that the global Islamic terrorist movement will outlast Al Qaeda as a group, strategic counter-terrorism efforts will need to focus on how and why a successor terrorist group might evolve during the remaining years of the ‘Islamic terrorist wave’.”

The report was vague about the outcome of current conflicts in Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan.

In 2025, the government in Baghdad could still be “an object of competition” among various factions seeking foreign aid or pride of place.

Afghanistan “may still evince significant patterns of tribal competition and conflict.”

“The future of Pakistan is a wildcard in considering the trajectory of neighboring Afghanistan,” it said.

The report also identified three potential up and coming powers, all from the Muslim world but not from its Arab core. They are Indonesia, Turkey and Iran. khalid hasan/agencies