Too Many Secrets....

[Contrarian]

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Too Many Secrets....


The past week was by all accounts a momentous one, as no less a person than former Pakistani President and former Chief of the Army Staff, Gen (Ret'd) Pervez Musharraf, assertively disclosed what has been a 'no-go' area for India's mainstream media and the otherwise hyper-ventilating broadcast media thus far: that India's Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA) has, since 2002, waged a highly successful covert war against Pakistan by actively rendering all kinds of financial assistance to Balochistan-based separatists.

But mind you, such covert warfare has not been waged by the Research & Analysis Wing (RAW), but by the tri-services DIA and Afghanistan's Riyast-i-Amniyat-i-Milli, and in addition to his routine assignment as India's Defence Adviser at the Embassy in Kabul, Brigadier Ravi Datt Mehta was officially dolling out huge financial assistance--as ordered by the DIA--to the Baloch separatists as and when required.

For the past one year such activities being undertaken by the DIA wer, in fact, openly discussed by both serving and retired senior military officials at both the Armed Forces Gymkhana and the United Services Institution within the National Capital Region. It, therefore, did not come as a great surprise to South Block when Brig Mehta was specifically targetted for assassination by the Pakistan Army's Peshawar-based 324 Military Intelligence Battalion .

This in many ways is reminiscent of the era ranging from the mid-1980s and early 1990s during which RAW had succeeded in gaining the trust of what would later morph into the Northern Alliance. In fact, by 1986, despite India's official recognition of the then Soviet-backed Afghan regime led by Dr Najibullah, India had begun extending medical assistance to the guerrilla forces led by the legendary leader Ahmad Shah Massoud and as a consequence of this, one wing of the All India Institute of Medical Science (AIIMS) was completely cordoned off by South Block and it was there that all those Mujahideen wounded in battle while fighting the Soviets under Massoud's leadership received the urgent medical attention that they deserved. So impressed was the Northern Alliance by India's humanitarian assistance that this relationship, at first opportunity, got elevated to a higher level when, in the early 1990s after the breakup of the USSR, the Northern Alliance succeeded in securing Tajikistan's approval for an Indian Army-run field hospital to be established at Farkhor.

Last week also saw BrahMos Aerospace successfully test-firing the Block 2 version of the BrahMos supersonic multi-role cruise missile's land attack variant. But here again, India's mainstream media failed to illustrate what has thus far been a severe shortcoming for both BrahMos Aerospace and the Defence Research & Development Organisation (DRDO): there are NO available firing ranges in India that can host test-firings of surface-to-surface or air-to-surface battlefield support missiles (like the BrahMos or Prithvi SS-150/SS-250) out to their maximum range envelopes! The firing range at Pokhran where such missiles are routinely test-fired, measures at most 58km and that too after two villages have been temporarily evacuated, even though the DRDO has been pleading with the MoD since the late 1990s for making available a firing range that can support missile firings out to 100km over land.

Yet another revelation for me last week was an update on the launch status of the nuclear-powered Advanced Technology Vehicle (ATV): the new Project Director has, rightly, adopted a cautious attitude towards advancing the launch-date of the hull by conducting a thorough and controlled 'flushing' of the ATV's complex network of steam piping associated with the vessel's BHEL-built heat exchanger, which had previously proved to be quite problematic. In addition, the new-design vertical silo for housing a yet-to-be-available 8,500km-range submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) is now being removed from the ATV's hull as the priority is to--as part of the ATV's multi-phase sea trials schedule--firstly, establish the ATV's hull integrity under operational conditions, and secondly, to establish the functional maturity of the ATV's nuclear propulsion system.

Only after these two milestones have been achieved that the weaponisation phase will be put to effect. The Govt of India's Cabinet Committee on National Security last January decided to accord only 'conditional & on principal' approval for constructing two ATV-derived vessels: one being the SSBN and the other being the escorting SSN.--Prasun K. Sengupta

Coming up soon: how the Indian Navy recently saved the Scorpene SSK project from being scuttled by the already-concluded investigations into allegations of corruptions, and how exactly the 'agents' involved with the deal and their principals succeeded in legally covering up their tracks and skirting around the 'Integrity Clause' that was integral to the procurement contract.

TRISHUL: Too Many Secrets....

[Contrarian]

I am sure my Pakistani friends will find it most interesting.

[dk33]

Thanks Malay.

Confirmation of what the Pakistani establishment has always claimed.

At the same time disappointing and sad as well. I had hoped that with Pakistan restraining its hand in Kashmir after 2002, and the back channel diplomacy, India would have similarly held back in Balochistan and elsewhere.

I had hoped that the allegations from our side were exaggerations, and that movement towards comprehensive peace between our two nations would establish that. Sadly that still remains a distant dream, and that Afghanistan remains our battlefield and hostage to our hostility.

[metalfalcon]

Interesting Indeed.

How did Indians Disclosed all this.

[dk33]

Interesting Indeed.

How did Indians Disclosed all this.

It is time to discuss this - unless the people of both nations realize the wrongs committed by their own governments, and that neither side is blameless or innocent, we will not move towards reconciliation, compromise and eventually peace.

A sense of moral superiority on either side will never allow that.

[linkinpark]

Blogs cannot be taken seriously without any back up of evidence. There are zillions of blogs in which people write such kind of stuff, how to believe them without evidence, how to separate wheat from chaff?.

[Stumper]

It is time to discuss this - unless the people of both nations realize the wrongs committed by their own governments, and that neither side is blameless or innocent, we will not move towards reconciliation, compromise and eventually peace.

A sense of moral superiority on either side will never allow that.

True. But its one of those "Nice to Talk - Difficult to implement" kind. Political dogs in both country wont give up such a wonderful stage as "hate" for alien things like "peace". Any GOI letting concession on kashmir, will be dead forever. Same with Pakistan. You bleed us in kashmir and we do it in Baloch ....so on and on ......vicious circle.

Man , i wonder what world will my child see.

[dk33]

Blogs cannot be taken seriously without any back up of evidence. There are zillions of blogs in which people write such kind of stuff, how to believe them without evidence, how to separate wheat from chaff?.

Prasun K Sengupta is a very prolific defense analyst who contributes to several Indian military and defence blogs as well as magazines.

His articles are often analyzed on Pakistani forums as well.

Aside from him, B Raman (and some others whose names I cannot recollect accurately off the top of my head) is another respected analyst (in Indian circles) who has outlined similar thoughts and policies.

Its not merely that he has confirmed Pakistani allegations, its the little details he mentions in arriving at his conclusions that lend veracity to his piece.

[Stumper]

Blogs cannot be taken seriously without any back up of evidence. There are zillions of blogs in which people write such kind of stuff, how to believe them without evidence, how to separate wheat from chaff?.

Hmmm Malay .... whats the URL ?

[dk33]

Any GOI letting concession on kashmir, will be dead forever. Same with Pakistan.

I would argue that honest discourse, such as what Sengupta has done, will lead to introspection and tempering of emotions inflamed by the official rhetoric on both sides, pushed by the media. And it is through that tempering of emotions that compromises will become acceptable to the peoples on both sides, when the realization of what this 'vicious cycle' is doing actually sinks in.

So long as we only look at ourselves as the victims, without acknowledging the others grievances, we will never reconcile.

[linkinpark]

Prasun K Sengupta is a very prolific defense analyst who contributes to several Indian military and defence blogs as well as magazines.

His articles are often analyzed on Pakistani forums as well.

Aside from him, B Raman (and some others whose names I cannot recollect accurately off the top of my head) is another respected analyst (in Indian circles) who has outlined similar thoughts and policies.

Its not merely that he has confirmed Pakistani allegations, its the little details he mentions in arriving at his conclusions that lend veracity to his piece.

He might be a defense analyst, his words cannot be given credence without back up of evidence. On the similar note, will you give credence to B Raman's (a retired RAW officer who has a number of connections in higher circles in Govt.) allegations on ISI being involved in many of the terrorism related events in India just because he knows more details than a lay man. We should have same standards (that is, to have solid evidence) before taking people seriously but not based on what suits you or me on any given day.

[dk33]

He might be a defense analyst, his words cannot be given credence without back up of evidence. On the similar note, will you give credence to B Raman's (a retired RAW officer who has a number of connections in higher circles in Govt.) allegations on ISI being involved in many of the terrorism related events in India just because he knows more details than a lay man. We should have same standards (that is, to have solid evidence) before taking people seriously but not based on what suits you or me on any given day.

If Raman or Sengupta were commenting on Pakistan, then their commentary would have to be filtered for possible biases, given their links with the Indian defence establishment and government.

However, their commentary on Indian defence related affairs is extremely credible given their links within the defence establishment and government. Sort of how Shireen Mazari (until she was removed) and Usman Shabbir are excellent commentators on defense issues related to Pakistan given their connections with the Pakistani Military and defense establishment.

[Stumper]

I would argue that honest discourse, such as what Sengupta has done, will lead to introspection and tempering of emotions inflamed by the official rhetoric on both sides, pushed by the media. And it is through that tempering of emotions that compromises will become acceptable to the peoples on both sides, when the realization of what this 'vicious cycle' is doing actually sinks in.

So long as we only look at ourselves as the victims, without acknowledging the others grievances, we will never reconcile.

Partly agree AM.....As someone said "War dont happen because one of the party is wrong. War is because both parties are correct". All of us have that thing in us to believe what our history books teach us. We want to belive our country being epitome of fairness but somehow our national pride takes priority over fairness. And this is where Compromises, if hurting national pride, will demonize the politician's and Army.

From what i can see, both country need to take a timeout, if needed by signing a peace agreement. Lets take up some CBM's. Lets give free access to media across border. Stop bickering. Create trade zones....and oh ... allow cricketers to do the talking on field.

[dk33]

From what i can see, both country need to take a timeout, if needed by signing a peace agreement. Lets take up some CBM's. Lets give free access to media across border. Stop bickering. Create trade zones....and oh ... allow cricketers to do the talking on field.

Yes, that is indeed what the CBM's initiated during the Musharraf years were building up to, and we were seeing secret progress on our disputes as well, no doubt to be unveiled when the atmosphere was right in both countries.

I think that is why the cancellation of CBM's and the back channel diplomacy after the Mumbai attacks was in fact a double victory for the hawks and those who would rather see conflict perpetuating.

No doubt Pakistan gains slightly more that India through peace, given that India's large size insulates it somewhat from upheaval and instability that in Pakistan's case is far more damaging, and that is why of late it has been Pakistan that has insisted that we continue on the path of dialog and CBM's regardless of the obstacles.

I think India is going to have to be magnanimous and show more flexibility as the larger nation for the bilateral dialog process to move forward, especially if you consider the fact that Pakistani institutions have been aware of the linkage Sengupta mentions for a long time now, and have still had to conduct 'dialog' with India.

[Stumper]

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Yes, that is indeed what the CBM's initiated during the Musharraf years were building up to, and we were seeing secret progress on our disputes as well, no doubt to be unveiled when the atmosphere was right in both countries.

I think that is why the cancellation of CBM's and the back channel diplomacy after the Mumbai attacks was in fact a double victory for the hawks and those who would rather see conflict perpetuating.

No doubt Pakistan gains slightly more that India through peace, given that India's large size insulates it somewhat from upheaval and instability that in Pakistan's case is far more damaging, and that is why of late it has been Pakistan that has insisted that we continue on the path of dialog and CBM's regardless of the obstacles.

Couldn't agree more.

I think India is going to have to be magnanimous and show more flexibility as the larger nation for the bilateral dialog process to move forward

But you know what, living in INDIA, as a common man, i find it REALLY strange that a general should WARN his president to put the home in order. I'm not used to it. My armed forces are suppose to protect my borders. We don't expect them to govern us. That is Odd to me. Hence i agree with GoI when it says "We don't know who is in control in Pakistan". I hope you are getting my point. I guess this is where GoI has genuine concerns. and hence the mental block.