Severe Energy Shortage Looming in South Asia

[RiazHaq]

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Both India and Pakistan are starving for energy and their current capacity and future planned availability fall far short of present and future future demand to satisfy their growing populations, lift tens to hundreds of millions out of poverty, and improve standards of living of their people.

In terms of overall energy requirements, here is a more complete picture for per capita energy consumption in South Asia and China, using Nationmaster, with 2006-2007 figures and rankings:

Pakistan per capita gas consumption 187 cu meters(ranked 73)
India per capita gas consumption 36 cu meters (ranked 99)
China per capita gas consumption 53 cu meter (ranked 95)

India per capita electric consumption 466 KWhr (ranked 160)
Pakistan per capita electric consumption 430 KWhr(ranked 164)
China per capita electric consumption 2,179 KWhr (ranked 91)

India coal consumption per capita 0.3 ton (ranked 23)
Pakistan coal consumption per capita 0.03 ton (ranked 35)
China coal consumption per capita 1 ton (ranked 16)

India oil consumption per day per 1000 people 2.4 barrels (ranked 165)
Pakistan oil consumption per day per 1000 people 2.2 barrels (ranked 169)
China oil consumption per day per 1000 people 5.7 barrels (ranked 144)

Per capita energy consumption in Pakistan is estimated at 14.2 million Btu, which is much higher than Bangladesh's 5 million BTUs per capita but slightly less than India's 15.9 million BTU per capita energy consumption. South Asia's per capita energy consumption is only a fraction of other industrializing economies in Asia region such as China (56.2 million BTU), Thailand (58 million BTU) and Malaysia (104 million BTU), according to the US Dept of Energy 2006 report. To put it in perspective, the world average per capita energy use is about 65 million BTUs and the average American consumes 352 million BTUs. With 40% of the Pakistani households that have yet to receive electricity, and only 18% of the households that have access to pipeline gas, the energy sector is expected to play a critical role in economic and social development. With this growth comes higher energy consumption and stronger pressures on the country’s energy resources. At present, natural gas and oil supply the bulk (80 percent) of Pakistan’s energy needs. However, the consumption of those energy sources vastly exceeds the supply. For instance, Pakistan currently produces only 18.3 percent of the oil it consumes, fostering a dependency on imports that places considerable strain on the country’s financial position. On the other hand, hydro and coal are perhaps underutilized today, as Pakistan has ample potential supplies of both.

Haq's Musings: Pakistan's Twin Energy Shortages of Gas and Electricity

[RPK]

^^^ when china came to south asia?

[RiazHaq]

^^^ when china came to south asia?

Chinese energy consumption is shown for comparison purposes. It clearly shows that India and Pakistan consume only a quarter of the energy Chinese do, and about a fifth of the world average per capita.

Should give you an idea of how far behind South Asia is relative to other developing nations.

[RiazHaq]

Hagler Bailly, a global management consulting firm with an office in Islamabad, warned in a 2006 study that Pakistan is going to witness gas shortage starting in 2007, and the imbalance will grow every year to cripple the economy by 2025, when shortage will be 11,092 MMCFD (Million standard cubic feet per day) against total 13,259 MMCFD production. The Hagler Bailly report added that Pakistan's gas shortage would get much worse in the next two decades if it did not manage any alternative sources. It appears that we are seeing the beginning of the crisis that HB predicted back in 2006.

According to BMI, gas is the dominant fuel, accounting for 47.5% of Pakistan's primary energy demand (PED) in 2007, followed by oil at 30.7%, hydro-electric energy at 12.9% and coal with a 7.9% share. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 4,859 million tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2013, representing 24.9% growth from the estimated 2008 level. Pakistan’s estimated 2008 market share of 1.52% is set to ease to 1.45% by 2013. The country’s estimated 2.5TWh of nuclear demand in 2008 is forecast to reach 5.0TWh by2013, with its share of the Asia Pacific nuclear market rising from 0.49% to 0.75% over the period.

Haq's Musings: Pakistan's Twin Energy Shortages of Gas and Electricity

To deal with the looming gas crisis, Pakistan has decided to go ahead with Iran-Pak gas pipeline, originally slated to include India, over the objections of US, and without Indian participation.

As Iran braces for another broadside of economic sanctions over its nuclear program, Tehran moves closer to opening up a new lifeline -- a natural gas pipeline
to Pakistan and possibly India and China as well.

If everything goes as planned, this much-delayed, controversial project could wreck U.S. efforts to check Iran's expansionist ambitions.

U.S. energy analyst Gal Luft said the pipeline could also "have profound implications for the geopolitics of energy in the 21st century and for the future of South Asia."

Iran and Pakistan signed an agreement for the construction of the 560-mile, $7.5 billion pipeline from the huge offshore South Pars gas field in the Gulf through Pakistan's unruly Balochistan province to Sindh province.

The project is crucial for Pakistan's growing energy requirements. Iran will supply 750 million-1 billion cubic feet of gas per day by mid-2015.

The project was first mooted in 1994. It was intended to carry gas through Pakistan to India in a 1,724-mile pipeline. But India, under intense pressure from the United States, withdrew in 2009, citing disputes over prices and transit fees. There was also deep misgivings in New Delhi about dealing with its longtime foe Pakistan.

India has invested instead in nuclear power to meet its ever-rising demand for energy in its burgeoning economy. It signed a landmark
deal with the United States in 2008 for nuclear equipment.

There has been no official explanation about why the Americans would allow Pakistan to go ahead and sign a pipeline agreement with Iran at a time when Washington is striving to isolate the Islamic Republic and paralyze its economy.

But the Americans cannot afford to antagonize Pakistan at a time when Washington needs Islamabad's support to fight al-Qaida and the Taliban. Pakistan is already suffering serious energy shortages with an electricity shortfall of 3,000 megawatts. These cause politically troublesome long and frequent blackouts.

The United States had been pressing for a pipeline to South Asia from gas-rich Turkmenistan in Central Asia via Afghanistan that would bypass Iran. But the security situation in Afghanistan made such a project unlikely.

India hasn't closed all doors to the project and may still rejoin. It is expected to require 146 billion cubic meters of gas per year by 2025 and its options are limited.

China, ever hungry for energy to fuel its mushrooming economy, has indicated that it might sign on and run an extension of the pipeline from Pakistan.

It may provide financial assistance to Islamabad for the project, which would provide an overland energy corridor less vulnerable to interference by the United States -- or others -- than the long tanker route from the Gulf across the Indian Ocean to the Pacific.

China is the main obstacle preventing the United States mustering the U.N. Security Council behind new sanctions on Iran. Sanctions would cut 10-12 percent of China's oil imports and jeopardize oil contracts worth hundreds of billions of dollars.

Iran desperately needs this project. Its potential in the energy sector is enormous. It has the second largest gas reserves in the world after Russia, roughly 15 percent of the world's gas supply.

But U.S.-led sanctions have prevented it from exploiting this through high-volume exports. The pipeline to Pakistan, and possibly the massive markets in India and China as well, could change all that and immunize Tehran from U.S. pressure.

The geopolitical implications of the Iran-Pakistan pipeline going through are immense. If the Americans relent, they may secure concessions from Iran and would certainly win influence in Pakistan by helping it out of a worsening energy crisis.

"By connecting itself with the world's second largest gas reserves, Pakistan would guarantee reliable supply for decades to come," says Luft, director of Washington's Institute for Analysis of Global Security, which focuses on energy security.

"If the pipeline were to be extended to India it could also be an instrument of stability in often tense Pakistan-India relations as well as a source of revenue for Islamabad through transit fees." One estimate puts that at around $600 million a year.

But, Luft concludes, "Should the worst happen and a Taliban-style regime takes over in Pakistan, the economies of the world's most radical Shiite state and that of what could be the world's most radical Sunni state would be connected to each other for decades to come, like conjoined twins."

And there's one other thing. Pakistan already has nuclear weapons and, under that scenario, Iran would, too.

Pakistan gas pipeline is Iran's lifeline - UPI.com

[Sehar Tauqeer]

Uncle, Chowk sai aaap ka dil nahi bhara key yaha bhi a gai

[BATMAN]

Uncle, Chowk sai aaap ka dil nahi bhara key yaha bhi a gai

Do you have anncestral rights to this forum?

I learn from him much more but reading your posts is waist of time.

[RiazHaq]

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In Silicon valley recently, the US federal government has pumped in about $500 million each into two green tech startups..Solyndra pv solar and Tesla all-electric cars. Obama was here this week to promote green tech and spoke to Solyndra employees.

In addition, there is $1 billion in federal grants being offered to biotech firms under the new healthcare bill.

The reason for US supremacy is partly explained by how much of its public funds it spends on higher education. A 2006 report from the London-based Center for European Reform, "The Future of European Universities" points out that the United States invests 2.6 percent of its GDP in higher education, compared with 1.2 percent in Europe and 1.1 percent in Japan.