Why China will chose India over Pakistan

[deckingraj]

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You do raise valid exceptions to the democracy rule. AM already addressed the Saudi situation, and I would argue that the India/USSR relationship was driven mainly by the respective governments. Most of the cultural exchanges were dictated by the authorities, rather than spontaneously occuring at the grass roots levels for the simple reason that both countries had closed, authoritarian societies. India only opened up to the world fully after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Just one point....This is not true....Not sure but this seems to be a wrong perception of yours then anything else....however if you have reasons to believe then please share them....

- India was always a mixed economy however mind sets were more socialistic in nature
- Market reforms were always on the cards and were echoed by PM's in 80's...However none had the guts to take on such a radical change .....reason simple POLITICS....
- It was bankruptcy which resulted in radical changes to our market structure and we are bearing its fruits today.....It can be a co-incidence but had nothing to do with collapse of Soviet Union....had that been a case we would have been a part of WARSAW.....
- We never abandoned US for USSR or vice-versa.....We always followed NAM and there was no question of restricting our relations because of USSR.....

[Developereo]

To counter the influence of the west, geographically apart BRI&C too are trying to do the same.

Not to digress too much, but that is precisely why the BRIC alliance is bound to fall apart. It is based on 'not West' rather than any common goal. It is the geopolitical equivalent of the dateless geeks' club -- all the countries who cannot get equality with the established economic powers. If any of them were offered full membership status, they would drop BRIC and join the big guys.

It is a bit like the EU is really just a Franco-German temper tantrum to halt their increasing irrelevance in world affairs. This is why Britain is only a half-heared member, and why the EU will fall apart if there is every any serious falling out between France and Germany.

The irrelevance that we are talking about is in the cultural & emotional consciousness of India & that has an air of irreversible inevitability about it.

Thanks for explaining the context of that assertion. I understand that greater diversification and democratization of political and economic power in India will shift the focus away from North India/Pakistan. However, the fact remains that Indian media and politicians still use Pakistan as the bogeyman to rally the masses.

Developereo - I'll leave it up to you whether you want to merge the two threads, since the discussion is essentially one of whether Chinese interests in Pakistan will be strong enough going into the future to continue the relationship we have enjoyed so far, or leave as is.

I am fine either way. This thread is more of a three-way debate with India being central to the discussion.

It can be a co-incidence but had nothing to do with collapse of Soviet Union

Well, I didn't mean to imply causation, simply a timing coincidence. India had a very protectionist economic policy until the late 80s -- around the time of the Soviet collapse.

[Dash]

Thanks for explaining the context of that assertion. I understand that greater diversification and democratization of political and economic power in India will shift the focus away from North India/Pakistan. However, the fact remains that Indian media and politicians still use Pakistan as the bogeyman to rally the masses.

That is today, and media is driven by stories that get attention. When the goverments cooperate. the media will change too. Its just a matter of time.

If people gain trust then politicians and media have no go.

[deckingraj]

Not to digress too much, but that is precisely why the BRIC alliance is bound to fall apart. It is based on 'not West' rather than any common goal. It is the geopolitical equivalent of the dateless geeks' club -- all the countries who cannot get equality with the established economic powers. If any of them were offered full membership status, they would drop BRIC and join the big guys.

I am afraid this would be very simplistic view....Some weight of such a group was seen in climate change conversations at copenhegan...anyways don't want to digress os will share a couple of links for you...

The weight of BRIC
Sun Hits The BRICs - InternetNews.com

Well, I didn't mean to imply causation, simply a timing coincidence. India had a very protectionist economic policy until the late 80s -- around the time of the Soviet collapse.

Yup...I agree India had a very protectionist economy and only in 1991 we break away from it...However it was like that right from day 1 of our independence....USSR had no influence whatsoever on it(their ideology surely had)...Having said is there is still a lot of areas where we need to improve...One latest good move was abondoning the subsidy on oil and diesal....A very hard political decision but very good economically....Just given an indicaton that MMS and company are pre-pared to take hard decisions which are good for our future...

[SomeGuy]

Developereo, can you give an example when two giants lived side by side and that also peacefully ??

China and India have existed together for thousands of years.
In that long history both countries have been giants in the past.

[Jackdaws]

I hate to say this as a Pakistani but, in the long term, I see China abandoning Pakistan in favor of India. The reason is simple: Paksitan is pursuing the exact same failed policy with China that it did with the US.

Pakistan/China cooperation is strictly limited to military and governmental levels. There is very little people-to-people contact and almost no cultural exchange. The relationship is one of 'colleagues, not friends'.

India, on the other hand, is using its soft power to build a positive image amongst the Chinese masses. As China becomes more democratic, it will tilt more and more towards India.

This is exactly what happened in the US. While the Pakistan military enjoyed a cozy relationship with the Pentagon, India was busy buying politcians and working on a grass-roots campaign within the US.

Clueless as ever, the Pakistani government is pursuing exactly the same myopic and limited relationship with China. And there is no effort from the Chinese side to expand the relationship either.

The other main factor is that, instead of being a strong self-sufficient ally, Pakistan is becoming more and more like a destitute friend who needs to be propped up. Right now, China is facing subtle resistance and resentment from the West and it sees Pakistan as a symbolic gateway to the resource-rich Muslim world. Once China is firmly in the driver's seat, will they want to associate themselves with a perpetually sick friend like Pakistan because, let's face it, the feudal-military alliance leading Paksitan has absolutely no interest in a stable, strong Pakistan. They are strictly interested in a short term strategy of lining their own coffers while they are in power and then running away to some foreign country.

There are a few complications tho mate. India and USA have never been at war unlike India and China. Lots of Indians emigrated to USA where goodwill was built for half a century - this has nothing to do with govt. of India. India and USA share many things in common - from a British colonial past to a democratic society, an apolitical armed force, a furiously free press and a fiercely independent judiciary. We share none of there traits with China. India and China will never be as cosy.

[Jackdaws]

Also 1 thing is, Inidans are been given lots of respect all over the world not because they love Indians or Indians are very great nation (no offense) but because of Indian economical boost, and trade opportunities with Inida.. Everyone even Soudi Arabia, started to lean more towards India who was used to be biggest Allie of Pakistan..

What Pakistan's problem is, we are more dependent at our friends in terms of Financial help and support in many other areas.. We mostly rely at them and thus we are kinda burden at them instead of a healthy friend.. So it start to annoy them after some times.. Pakistan must look at its internal issues seriously and MUST boost its economy in coming 5 - 7 years.. other wise things are going to become even more worst for Pakistan..

5-7 years?? You think that is all it will take? I regret bursting your bubble but it will take a lot more time. You think India's economy started expanding overnight? When the British were kicked out baring a few mills India had no industry to speak of and baring about 10 major universities no centers of higher education. Literacy level was 10%. I am no fan of Nehru but he did give India what it needed - a strong industrial base. The 80s were completely wasted but India needed a socialist model from the 50s-70s and now we are reaping the benefits of that.

[r3alist]

excellent thread Developereo, i have admired your posts for a long time and this is another good one.


its a valid question, our politicians have no long term view because they are only people who think about short term success, that is to say their own short term success

the military people have done their bit, the cheap politicians as ever letting pakistan down


as for the comparison with india - well truth is india is and has been for over half a millennium a sleeping giant who represent something like 1/5th of humanity, ofcourse they will eventually find their place in the world, pakistani's should be comfortable with that, i am.



also whilst many indians are saying that china needs pakistan as a buffer for india the WHOLE WESTERN WORLD needs india as a buffer against china, so you guys should have the humility to recognise this, you are getting a helping hand and to your credit are exploiting it to the full.

remember the cold war days - things were not so hot for india then - point being times have changed favorably for india and taken a nose dive for pakistan, therefore pakistan needs long term planning

[Ras]

Well, India acts arrogantly at the governmental level with Pakistan, and ordinary Indians seem to have a strange attitude towards Pakistan. At the risk of stereotyping, I have found South Indians to be far more reserved and less belligerent than Northerners.

Nothing strange in that...for an average South Indian there is absolutely nothing in common with Pakistan...no language,culture,religion,cuisine,music nothing. Pakistan is the same as any other country. If anything North Indians have a strange dynamic with Pakistan..they hate deeply and also are deeply attached for most of the above reasons.

[Srinivas]

It all depends on economic and strategic interests which we are never sure as time goes on.

[Dr sim]

Someone aptly commented on India Pakistan issue-
"Hamare logon ki kismat to dekho,bahar se vyaapari aate hain pehle sarheden(boundaries) bech gaye aur ab hathyar bech rahe hain"

[Sudesh Lahri]

I hate to say this as a Pakistani but, in the long term, I see China abandoning Pakistan in favor of India. The reason is simple: Paksitan is pursuing the exact same failed policy with China that it did with the US.

Pakistan/China cooperation is strictly limited to military and governmental levels. There is very little people-to-people contact and almost no cultural exchange. The relationship is one of 'colleagues, not friends'.

India, on the other hand, is using its soft power to build a positive image amongst the Chinese masses. As China becomes more democratic, it will tilt more and more towards India.

This is exactly what happened in the US. While the Pakistan military enjoyed a cozy relationship with the Pentagon, India was busy buying politcians and working on a grass-roots campaign within the US.

Clueless as ever, the Pakistani government is pursuing exactly the same myopic and limited relationship with China. And there is no effort from the Chinese side to expand the relationship either.

The other main factor is that, instead of being a strong self-sufficient ally, Pakistan is becoming more and more like a destitute friend who needs to be propped up. Right now, China is facing subtle resistance and resentment from the West and it sees Pakistan as a symbolic gateway to the resource-rich Muslim world. Once China is firmly in the driver's seat, will they want to associate themselves with a perpetually sick friend like Pakistan because, let's face it, the feudal-military alliance leading Paksitan has absolutely no interest in a stable, strong Pakistan. They are strictly interested in a short term strategy of lining their own coffers while they are in power and then running away to some foreign country.

Buddy you are blessed with a long term statesman like vision!!!

Your analysis is absolutely correct. Pakistan needs to stand on its own feet in the long run.

[Abu Zolfiqar]

agha forget Pakistan --- what do north and south indians even have in common? Southern indians are loathe to communicate in hindy language

[Ras]

agha forget Pakistan --- what do north and south indians even have in common? Southern indians are loathe to communicate in hindy language

Only thing I can think of is religion

[deckingraj]

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agha forget Pakistan --- what do north and south indians even have in common? Southern indians are loathe to communicate in hindy language

Love and Passion for our beloved Motherland - INDIA...Pride of being a unity in diversity....Respect and compassion for each other...... Sensitivity about language difference and thus having English as official language instead of Hindi(spoken by majority).....Sensitivity of not forcing any language up someone's throat and freedom to proactive and preach one's own culture respecting other's......List is long but not sure if you are interested....