Israel is Beating the war drums Again

[T-Rex]

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Michael Jansen: Beating the war drums
November 06, 2011


Israel and its neoconservative champions in the US and elsewhere are, once again, playing a dangerous game by threatening to bomb Iran. The aim, say Israel and its allies, is to destroy Tehran’s nuclear facilities before it is able to, to quote Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak, “achieve nuclear [weapons] capability,” i.e., the ability to build nuclear bombs rather than actual possession of bombs. Barak can count on an arsenal of at least 200 nuclear devices and advanced delivery systems, thanks to French and US support.

This time the Israelis began beating the war drums ahead of a report by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on Iran’s past attempts to achieve the capability to manufacture nuclear weapons. This report is expected to prompt the US and France to step up pressure on members of the UN Security Council to agree to toughen sanctions against Iran.

So far, Russia and China have refused to go along with this plan. In a bid to boost the case for harsher sanctions, the US recently accused Iran’s elite Quds force of plotting with a US citizen of Iranian origin to assassinate the Saudi ambassador to Washington. However, this conspiracy has been dismissed as an improbable fantasy by many US experts on Iran and is unlikely to convince Russia, China or other doubting Council members.

By threatening to go to war unilaterally on a number of previous occasions, Israel has managed to compel the US — which does not want to become embroiled in a conflict with Iran — to stiffen sanctions. The aim was, as US-based Iranian analyst Trita Parsi blogged, “to preserve the peace.” Parsi observed, “The choice is, the tactic dictates, between sanctions and war; not between confrontation and diplomacy.”

Diplomacy has never been seriously considered by Washington because of the immense power and influence wielded by Israel, the pro-Israeli lobby in the US and their neoconservative allies who not only play important roles in policy making but also in Western media.

Parsi made the valid point that, in the view of Israel, sanctions and war are “complementary:” sanctions slow the progress of Iran’s nuclear programme while a major attack on the country’s nuclear facilities would set the programme back for some years. Parsi warned that the ongoing Israeli-neocon campaign is particularly risky because the US “has little left to sanction in Iran” and Israeli “sabre rattling” is losing credibility.

On his first point, it is useful to note that the Obama administration has hesitated to call for the imposition of sanctions on Iran’s Central Bank by barring financial institutions or firms that deal with the Iranian bank from carrying out transactions with US banks and companies. India and China and other customers for Iran’s oil would certainly oppose such sanctions, which would harm the global economy at a time of crisis. Sanctions on Iran’s Central Bank would also harm ordinary Iranians and constitute “collective punishment,” illegal under international law.

On Parsi’s second point, this past week’s test by Israel of a ballistic missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead and reaching Iran has boosted Israel’s military credibility and added a new dimension of menace to Israeli brinkmanship. If not firmly told by the Obama administration it would be on its own if it resorts to the use of force, Israel could launch a first strike on Iran — staging scores of bombing runs with aircraft dropping US-made bunker busters — in order to compel the US to mount a full-scale aerial campaign that could last for several weeks. In such a campaign, the US would have to target Iranian army, air force and naval bases, command-and-control centres, military industries, civilian infrastructure, and research institutions as well as nuclear research facilities and Iran’s nuclear power installations.

The US would, in effect, be forced to wage all-out war on Iran with the aim not only of taking out its nuclear programme but also crippling the country and, perhaps, effecting regime change. This would be a very dangerous proposition for US interests in this region. Iran has threatened to retaliate and could do so in a variety of ways. Unless the US takes out all of Iran’s airfields, war planes and rocket launchers in an initial strike, Tehran could fire long-range rockets at Saudi oil fields, ports and refi-neries, at US bases in the region, and at Israel.

Iran’s ally, Hizbollah could lob rockets into Israeli towns and cities, including Tel Aviv, while pro-Iranian Shia militias in Iraq could strike at US troops and facilities in that country. Iran could also exact vengeance by hitting at US and Western troops in Afghanistan. The price of oil, already an unacceptable $110 a barrel, would soar to $150-200 and higher at a time when the US and its Western allies are struggling to overcome a deepening recession and do not have the money to wage a new major conflict in this region.

A war with Iran could plunge the globe into a depression as deep as the Great Depression of the 1930s. Furthermore, a fresh US onslaught on another Muslim country is likely to prompt massive anti-US protests everywhere in the Muslim world, even where the populace is not fond of Iran and its government. Angry young men could wage terrorist attacks anywhere they find US and Western citizens, communities and interests.

This would suit Israel which has always done its utmost to undermine US relations with potential and existing Arab and Muslim allies and to humiliate these allies by attacking neighbours and dispossessing Palestinians. Israel wants to be Washington’s sole friend and ally in the so-called “Greater Middle East” and to exclude from US friendship Muslim countries which have no dealings with Israel.

Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Defence Minister Ehud Barak are eager to beat the war drums at this time because Obama is weak and preoccupied with running for re-election in November 2012. Netanyahu and Barak have not only agreed that hitting Iran is a good idea but they have also convinced hard-line Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman to go along. Deputy Premier Moshe Yaalon, a former chief-of-staff of the Israeli army, is opposed as is Interior Minister Eli Yishai.

As the cabinet debated the issue, news of the discussion was leaked to the press, apparently by former Mossad (foreign intellgence) chief Meir Dagan and former Shin Bet (domestic intelligence) head Yuval Diskin who oppose military action. A second former Mossad chief Ephraim Halevy has joined them. “An attack on Iran could affect not only Israel, but the entire region for 100 years,” he warned. These veteran intelligence operatives understand the consequences of war against Iran and do not want to risk it.

[raavan]

Last time they went to war they beat 4 countries in 6 days, I do not think Iran stands a chance

[Obambam]

Israel and its neoconservative champions in the US and elsewhere are, once again, playing a dangerous game by threatening to bomb Iran. The aim, say Israel and its allies, is to destroy Tehran’s nuclear facilities before it is able to, to quote Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak, “achieve nuclear [weapons] capability,” i.e., the ability to build nuclear bombs rather than actual possession of bombs.

EXCLUSIVE: Obama agrees to keep Israel's nukes secret - Washington Times

President Obama has reaffirmed a 4-decade-old secret understanding that has allowed Israel to keep a nuclear arsenal without opening it to international inspections, three officials familiar with the understanding said.

The officials, who spoke on the condition that they not be named because they were discussing private conversations, said Mr. Obama pledged to maintain the agreement when he first hosted Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House in May.

Interesting..

[somebozo]

Last time they went to war they beat 4 countries in 6 days, I do not think Iran stands a chance

And if it did then it would be pretty bad for you treacherous Indians..I dont understand the Indian physic

World largest democracy but:
Best friends of Saddam
Best friends of Ghaddafi
Best friends of Assad
Best friends of Ayatollahs
Best friends of South American dictators?

And the first to abandon their friends when uncle same boot arrives!

[raavan]

And if it did then it would be pretty bad for you treacherous Indians..I dont understand the Indian physic

World largest democracy but:
Best friends of Saddam
Best friends of Ghaddafi
Best friends of Assad
Best friends of Ayatollahs
Best friends of South American dictators?

And the first to abandon their friends when uncle same boot arrives!

Atleast we do not help uncle sam kill innocent afghanis for our benefit

[palash_kol]

And the first to abandon their friends when uncle same boot arrives!

Still hate uncle sam!!!!!! remember they tried to attack india just to make you win...

They helped you in so many ways - Gave fighter planes, arms and many more to you. You should be happy for whatever uncle sam did for you...

Now at last this word....

You are not so faithful for uncle sam....

[HZR2011]

come on end this soon

[JAT BALWAN]

And if it did then it would be pretty bad for you treacherous Indians..I dont understand the Indian physic

World largest democracy but:
Best friends of Saddam
Best friends of Ghaddafi
Best friends of Assad
Best friends of Ayatollahs
Best friends of South American dictators?

And the first to abandon their friends when uncle same boot arrives!

How can you say this ??
India didn`t support war on Iraq & not others.

But pakistan support WOT in afganistan & I think they were your friends then.
dont look at distant things, first look in your home & you`ll realize some gr8 & interesting happening there.

[somebozo]

Still hate uncle sam!!!!!! remember they tried to attack india just to make you win...

They helped you in so many ways - Gave fighter planes, arms and many more to you. You should be happy for whatever uncle sam did for you...

Now at last this word....

You are not so faithful for uncle sam....

Try to clarify your stand, sometimes you call us uncle sam pets and now you are whining of betrayal on uncle sam behalf.

[JAT BALWAN]

Try to clarify your stand, sometimes you call us uncle sam pets and now you are whining of betrayal on uncle sam behalf.

ummm ... may be unfaithful pets of uncle sam is right.. ok?

[silko]

Last time they went to war they beat 4 countries in 6 days, I do not think Iran stands a chance

there is so much difference between the six day war and a war against Iran today!

Israel launched a surprise attack, which they cant do against Iran, and the distance play a role! how are they supposed to drop foot soldiers down on the ground? through which airspace air they going to come through?

[Qasibr]

Last time they went to war they beat 4 countries in 6 days, I do not think Iran stands a chance

I think you need to update your knowledge - Israel has been involved in plenty of wars since the 60's, and they haven't done so well in all of them. In '73 for example, Israel lost of aircraft to Egyptian SAMs, it shook them enough to go for a truce. Also, much more recently, in the Lebanon war, their army performed very inadequately. Here's an eye-opener for you by AsiaTimes, a major newspaper operating out of Hong Kong:

The Ground War

After-battle reports of Hezbollah commanders now confirm that IDF troops never fully secured the border area and Maroun al-Ras was never fully taken. Nor did Hezbollah ever feel the need to call up its reserves, as Israel had done. "The entire war was fought by one Hezbollah brigade of 3,000 troops, and no more," one military expert in the region said. "The Nasr Brigade fought the entire war. Hezbollah never felt the need to reinforce it."

Reports from Lebanon underscore this point. Much to their surprise, Hezbollah commanders found that Israeli troops were poorly organized and disciplined. The only Israeli unit that performed up to standards was the Golani Brigade, according to Lebanese observers. The IDF was "a motley assortment", one official with a deep knowledge of US slang reported. "But that's what happens when you have spent four decades firing rubber bullets at women and children in the West Bank and Gaza."

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IDF commanders were also disturbed by the performance of their troops, noting a signal lack of discipline even among its best-trained regular soldiers. The reserves were worse, and IDF commanders hesitated to put them into battle.

AsiaTimes: How Hezbollah Defeated Israel

The Lebanese resistance performed surprisingly well back in 2006, the war really shook Israel to their core, as their false claims of superiority were proven to be hollow. The "invincible" image their media projects is no good, if in battle they're ineffective.

However, Israel is an insidious enemy that has much in common with the Indians to our east(both talk very nicely, and right when you're vulnerable or make the mistake of trusting them, they stab you in the back - look at Israel supporting the Kurdish PKK for decades against it's Turkish ally). I hope Hezbollah is not going to stick to old tactics simply because they led to success back then, because that makes one highly predictable, and Israeli tacticians would have studied their failures in-depth.

Israel ran out of Precision-Guided Munitions during that war, because they weren't able to accurately pinpoint Hezbollah's numerous forward supply depots and had to take out thousands of suspected hideouts, so to move now Israel would have had it's intel do a thorough workup using local assets, to see where hideouts are during peacetime. And also, if they're stocking up on PGMs that they ran out of earlier, it would be a dead giveaway. Perhaps they'd stock up covertly.

[Drawn_Sword_of_God]

Last time they went to war they beat 4 countries in 6 days, I do not think Iran stands a chance

last time they ant to war in 2006 they got their *** kicked by a small force called hezbullah and lost over 100 merkeva tanks

[500]

Israel is Beating the war drums:

I think you need to update your knowledge - Israel has been involved in plenty of wars since the 60's, and they haven't done so well in all of them. In '73 for example, Israel lost of aircraft to Egyptian SAMs, it shook them enough to go for a truce.

In 1973 it was a suprise attack on Israel by Egypt and Syria with help of Jordan and Iraq. By the end of the war Israel was standing 30 km from Damscus and surrounded 3rd Egyptian army, so Saddat was begging for case fire.

AsiaTimes: How Hezbollah Defeated Israel

Before that victory Hezbollah was regullary firing at Israel, since 2006 they did not fire a bullet. Seems they realised that they might not survive another such victory

[Drawn_Sword_of_God]

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Still hate uncle sam!!!!!! remember they tried to attack india just to make you win...

They helped you in so many ways - Gave fighter planes, arms and many more to you. You should be happy for whatever uncle sam did for you...

Now at last this word....

You are not so faithful for uncle sam....

and we repaid them when we faught against the mighty soviet union in afghanistan. and took the chance even tho the soviet could attack us, because there was no single force at that time to face the soviets directly
besides pakistani government has changed in these decades, stop whining about the past, maybe you should become communists again?

---------- Post added at 07:25 PM ---------- Previous post was at 07:23 PM ----------

Israel is Beating the war drums:




In 1973 it was a suprise attack on Israel by Egypt and Syria with help of Jordan and Iraq. By the end of the war Israel was standing 30 km from Damscus and surrounded 3rd Egyptian army, so Saddat was begging for case fire.


Before that victory Hezbollah was regullary firing at Israel, since 2006 they did not fire a bullet. Seems they realised that they might not survive another such victory

or maybe they released they have done too much harm to Israel by destroying 100+ if its merkeva tanks and damaging one of its advanced ships, so they decided to take a break with these huge achievements