Russia-China victory in Syria a sign of declining US power

[lem34]

---

---

Russia-China victory in Syria a sign of declining US power


It sets an important precedent in international relations, and is perhaps the clearest sign of declining US power in the Middle East.

For the first time since the end of the Cold War, Russia and China have effectively thwarted the United States and its allies from pursuing its interests in a fiery Middle Eastern flashpoint, Syria.

The Russian-Chinese double veto at the UN Security Council - the last in February - signalled to the West that the two powers were drawing a red line on Syria. Notably, China's second veto on Syria was only its eighth in history, highlighting the importance of the matter to Beijing. The message was clear: UN-sponsored regime change, military intervention, or arming of Syrian rebels - as seen in Libya - would never pass.

Understanding the regional and global battle over Syria is to recognise that no external power in the world has Syrian democracy or human rights as the fundamental drive behind its policies on the crisis. Despite the fluff coming from Western capitals, no leader among them is truly concerned for the welfare of the Syrian people, as noted by the West's double standard silence to Bahrain's ongoing revolution. Likewise, calls for Syrian democracy emanating from the most repressive regime in the world in Saudi Arabia are laughable to say the least. And as we are so regularly told, Russia, China and Iran are the antithesis to the liberal democratic values the West espouses to represent.

What the West and its Gulf Arab proxies saw in Syria was an opportunity to either snatch the Arab world's influential outpost for Iran and Russia, or destroy its regional power altogether by way of a destructive civil war. The former seemed almost completely out of reach short of US military intervention. After spending his entire first term disengaging from wars in the Middle East, the last move president Barack Obama would make in an election year is committing a broke United States to yet another Middle East war.

Delegating intervention to its NATO allies was always going to be an unlikely option. Despite French and British eagerness to strike Moamar Gaddafi's forces in Libya last year, the US once again eventually assumed the bulk of the workload.

The threat of a civil war still beckons, as oil-rich Gulf states ponder arming rebels, but decisive military victories by the Syrian army in recent months have made it increasingly unlikely that president Bashar al-Assad will be dislodged by force, either from within or beyond.

The international wrangling does not delegitimise the legitimate demands of the Syrian people for democracy and an open society ruled by fairness and equal treatment. Rather, it highlights that for the majority of the Syrian revolution thus far, the battle for Syria has been mostly waged beyond its borders.

The Syrian revolution became no longer a question of the inalienable rights of the Syrian people, but - as so often in the Middle East - a pretence for an intense struggle for regional supremacy. The Saudis and Qataris threw all gloves off when Saudi King Abdullah openly declared his support for the revolt in August 2011. The king's call was not one of solidarity with the Syrian people, but a declaration of proxy war against its regional nemesis, Iran. Riyadh and Doha saw an opportunity to gain a strategic Arab ally on the simple calculation that the majority of Syrians are Sunni Muslims, and thus Assad - member of the minority Alawi sect - would meet the same fate of the fallen Arab dictators before him.

Turkey also hedged its bets on a quick Assad downfall, a strategic blunder that is now under sharp criticism from leading Turkish commentators and opposition leaders as the Syrian dictator appears to have held sway. Although it still hosts Syrian opposition groups and armed rebels, Turkey has notably toned down its harsh rhetoric of Assad in recent weeks. The US and Europe have also moved away from explicit calls for regime change, to endorsing - alongside Russia and China - UN envoy Kofi Annan's six-point plan for a political solution.

Annan's plan is a clear victory for Russia and China, as it reinforces their position on what it considers to be the sensible approach to resolving the Syrian crisis. Annan's peace plan suggests a "Syrian-led political process" echoing Moscow and Beijing's repeated calls for dialogue among Syrian parties and without external interference. It also calls for a cessation of violence "by all parties" without apportioning blame to either the regime or the opposition. Russia had previously drafted a UN Security Council resolution blaming both sides for the crisis, a move rejected at the time by France as "unacceptable" as it could not equate the crimes of rebels to the regime. And the only hint of foreign intervention in Annan's plan is a UN monitoring team to oversee a ceasefire.

This contrasts sharply with the two previous Western-backed UN resolutions that suggested a regime change via transition, and opened the door for further action without compliance, or as Russia and China interpreted, military action. Moscow and Beijing got the Annan plan they wanted, denying the West its traditional position of decision-maker in the Middle East.

Last week's "Friends of Syria" summit in Turkey, a gathering of Western and Arab states alongside a number of Syrian opposition groups, revealed only the lack of options available. The summit's pledge to aid the opposition was as hollow as the rhetorical statements issued in support of the revolution. The US promised communications equipment - certain to defeat a heavily-equipped and trained Syrian army - while Saudi Arabia and Qatar would use its oil-wealth to entice Syrian generals to defect - a strategy it has deployed largely unsuccessfully since mid-2011.

The most telling international meetings were the summits that preceded the "Friends of Syria" gathering. On March 29, Arab leaders met in Baghdad, while the BRICS summit of emerging powers was underway in Delhi. The Arab states, including Riyadh and Doha, had thrown its backing behind Annan's Russian-friendly plan.

The BRICS - Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa - showed its new global clout by rejecting military action and endorsing dialogue as the path to a solution. The BRICS have stood firm on Syria, and as testimony to its growing global influence, have forced the West to take a backward step. There will be no Libya-repeat in Syria, and there will not be a pro-Western proxy emerging in Damascus anytime soon. Civil war still remains a threat, albeit distant given the rebels' devastating defeats in Homs and Idlib, and its inferiority to the Syrian army.

The retreat of the West from Syria does not, however, signal complete doom for the Syrian revolution. Assad's forces may have won militarily, but large segments of the Syrian population have broken their silence, and will not return to the shadows. Indeed, overt Western and Gulf involvement in the Syrian crisis created more rifts among Syrian activists than resolved disputes. Many Syrian opposition activists and leaders that I met in Syria have been dismayed at what they perceived was the hijacking of the revolution by foreign powers for external interests.

But the threat of Western intervention seems to have subsided, for now. If Iraq was the catalyst for America's decline in the Middle East, Syria has sounded the death knell as a resurgent Russia and emerging China step up to the plate

Russia-China victory in Syria a sign of declining US power - The Drum Opinion (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

[Syrian Lion]

This is not a victory for Russia and China, its a victory for the Syrian people. Syrians could have fallen in the trap of the West and the gulf, however, we know Syria and we have faith in our leader. Most importantly, we know the west more then the west itself.

[53fd]

I would say there is a lot of work ahead for the Assad regime, before it can end this conflict perpetrated by the "West". China & Russia have remained strong, as has the Assad regime, but things are far from over, & the "West" is still trying its best to bring the regime down.

[anon45]

Does this mean our success in pursuing our interests in East and South-East Asia is a sign of rising US power?

Perhaps the next time we use our veto against Russia or China that will mean their power has declined!

:edit: the comments section of the article posted put this flawed article to rest.

[Syrian Lion]

Does this mean our success in pursuing our interests in East and South-East Asia is a sign of rising US power?

Perhaps the next time we use our veto against Russia or China that will mean their power has declined!

The veto is not the issue, you have to look at it outside the box. SYRIA IS A RED LINE. PERIOD.

[Bharthi]

When Iran backed Shias fight with saudi backed sunnis,in the Middle Eact. Its for the USA.

[anon45]

The veto is not the issue, you have to look at it outside the box. SYRIA IS A RED LINE. PERIOD.

Not really, our focus is going to be on Asia for the future, and honestly it is better for our real-politik interests for Syria to remain under Assad, as he is the known bad. Israel supports Assad.

The current position of Russia and China shredding their image in the middle-east while we justifiably speak of democracy, freedom, and human rights suits us just fine as well though.

[DrSomnath999]

the most important thing for international community is to restore peace & stabilty in syria & end the violence

[TARIQ BN ZIYAAD]

i don't give a damn about the victory of either sides that r mentioned , but what i do know is the syrians have decided to take this criminal from the office and it will happend weather after 13000 deaths or 13 million but at the end he will be gone.

and my message to the haters of Syrian public and worshiper of iranian mullahs don't be that happy it aint over yet

TARIQ

[Farooq]

i don't give a damn about the victory of either sides that r mentioned , but what i do know is the syrians have decided to take this criminal from the office and it will happend weather after 13000 deaths or 13 million but at the end he will be gone.

and my message to the haters of Syrian public and worshiper of iranian mullahs don't be that happy it aint over yet

TARIQ

go back to sleep kid... you don't know what you are talking about

[LeGenD]

What a joke of a title this article have.

This is not a sign of declining US power. Did US power declined after the debacle of Vietnam?

If Russo-Chinese alliance have managed to secure Syria, it has failed to do so with Libya.

Also, WEST is doing the right thing by adopting 'wait and see policy' in case of Syria. No need to rush in to Syrian internal matter.

[TARIQ BN ZIYAAD]

go back to sleep kid... you don't know what you are talking about

Since this blessed uprising started i wrote after 2 months in this forum, syrians have comeout from their homes and they will not be back untill this guys is driven out of his office. and ppl like u were claiming these r smalll bunch of ppl and will be settled out in days not it has been year plus one month.

let's wait and it will be known who is kid and need to goto sleep after drinking milk in bottle

What a joke of a title this article have.

This is not a sign of declining US power. Did US power declined after the debacle of Vietnam?

If Russo-Chinese alliance have managed to secure Syria, it has failed to do so with Libya.

Also, WEST is doing the right thing by adopting 'wait and see policy' in case of Syria. No need to rush in to Syrian internal matter.

Actually despite the claims of this butchers followers, the west could not come up with better servant then him to serve israel

TARIQ

[Syrian Lion]

Since this blessed uprising started i wrote after 2 months in this forum, syrians have comeout from their homes and they will not be back untill this guys is driven out of his office. and ppl like u were claiming these r smalll bunch of ppl and will be settled out in days not it has been year plus one month.

let's wait and it will be known who is kid and need to goto sleep after drinking milk in bottle

TARIQ

Really? your comparing 10% (probably less) opposition to 90% supporters.
i mean really you can keep denying everything, you the one who is blind, just take a look at this most recent rally April 7, 2012

Syrians Rally - YouTube
Show me the people you are talking about in millions in the streets.

[TARIQ BN ZIYAAD]

Syrian bla bla , in another thread u admitted that syrian authorities have failed to protect the opposing rallies and left them to shabbi7a like u

no one stand in the rally if bullets r fired and this why ur buthcer president is not taking his tanks to the military camps.
what i said a truth and u can find my writing on this forum a year ago and ppl like u were claiming it is only few ppl or protesting ( just like as u claimed above ) but whole syrian army could not take care of this only 10% or less opposing unarmed brave ppl of syria

TARIQ

[Syrian Lion]

---

---

Syrian bla bla , in another thread u admitted that syrian authorities have failed to protect the opposing rallies and left them to shabbi7a like u

no one stand in the rally if bullets r fired and this why ur buthcer president is not taking his tanks to the military camps.
what i said a truth and u can find my writing on this forum a year ago and ppl like u were claiming it is only few ppl or protesting ( just like as u claimed above ) but whole syrian army could not take care of this only 10% or less opposing unarmed brave ppl of syria

TARIQ

We are fighting those terrorists who are using humans as a shield, they hide between innocent people and kill them to blame the government.
Tell me what do you want the army to do? lol
anyway, show me the millions your are talking about. Trust me Alasad WILL NOT LAST A WEEK IN OFFICE, IF JUST 30% not fifty just thirty percent of the people were against him.