Turkmenistan to supply gas to India, pipeline to run through Afghanistan,

[Yeti]

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Turkmenistan to supply gas to India, pipeline to run through Afghanistan, Pakistan

Turkmenistan agreed on Wednesday to supply natural gas to Pakistan and India in deals that offer major economic benefits but depend on building and defending a US-backed pipeline across chronically unstable Afghanistan.


The route, particularly the 735-km (450-mile) leg through the Afghan provinces of Herat and Kandahar, will need billions of dollars in funding. It faces significant security problems as the Western NATO alliance plans to hand control of Afghanistan to Kabul's own security forces by the middle of next year.




Turkmenistan's state gas company Turkmengaz signed gas sales and purchase agreements with Pakistan's Inter State Gas Systems and Indian state-run utility GAIL.


“The implementation of this project will give a powerful impetus to the social and economic development of all the participant countries,” Turkmen Deputy Prime Minister Baimurad Hojamukhamedov said before the signing ceremony in Avaza on the Caspian Sea.


India and Pakistan are both hungry for gas supplies and Turkmenistan, formerly part of theSoviet Union, is keen to free itself from reliance on gas exports to Russia.


Lilit Gevorgyan, analyst at IHS Global Insight, said that while the pipeline could be a lucrative commercial project, it would run through more than one high security risk country, “which puts the actual construction under a big question mark”.


The idea of the TAPI pipeline, an acronym formed from the initials of the four countries through which it would pass, was first raised in the mid-1990s but construction has yet to begin.


Turkmen officials have said the proposed 1,735-km (1,085-mile) pipeline could carry 1 trillion cubic metres of gas over a 30-year period, or 33 billion cubic metres a year.


Turkmenistan, a desert country of 5.5 million which borders Iran, is viewed by human rights bodies as one of the world's most secretive and repressive countries.


But Turkmen President Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov, who has a growing personality cult, has moved in recent years to warm ties with the West, whose political support and investment he needs to lay alternative gas export routes.


SECURITY AND COSTS


The major obstacle to the project is the stretch of pipeline that will run through Afghanistan. NATO set an “irreversible” course out of Afghanistan on Monday but US President Barack Obama admitted its plan to end the deeply unpopular war in 2014 was fraught with dangers.


A NATO summit in Chicago endorsed an exit strategy that calls for handing control of Afghanistan to its security forces next year but left questions unanswered about how to prevent a slide into chaos and a resurgence of the Taliban after allied troops are gone.


“Ultimately we believe that all the challenges, including security challenges that the project faces, can be managed or overcome,” Daniel Stein, senior adviser to the US State Department's special envoy for Eurasian energy, said in Avaza on Wednesday. He did not elaborate.


But IHS Global Insight's Gevorgyan wrote in comments to Reuters that “the project had a slim fighting chance in the past decade as NATO was still in Afghanistan”.


“With the Western troops' pullout by 2014 from the still volatile Afghanistan, building an expensive pipeline in country with very weak central government seems almost unattainable.”


The Asian Development Bank said the TAPI pipeline was estimated to cost at least $7.6 billion in 2008. Analysts and officials now say it could cost between $10 billion and $12 billion to construct.


Strained ties between nuclear powers India and Pakistan, which have fought several wars and been involved in border conflicts and military standoffs since the 1947 partition of BritishIndia, is another source of concern.


“Given the animosity between the two countries, if TAPI is ever to be built it is likely to be a high-value target in Pakistan, where a number of religious fundamentalist groups will ensure that no energy supply enters India through their territory,” Gevorgyan wrote.


In Avaza, Pakistani Petroleum and Natural Resources Minister Asim Hussain showed optimism. “We will forget our past,” he said. “Let bygone be bygone and let's move into the future.”


Turkmenistan is promoting TAPI as a key element in plans to boost annual gas exports to 180 billion cubic metres by 2030.


BP data show Turkmenistan's natural gas reserves equal to those of Saudi Arabia and behind only Russia, Iran and Qatar.


The country aims to supply gas from its Galkynysh field, better known by its previous name, South Iolotan. Auditor Gaffney, Cline & Associates has ranked the field the world's second largest, with gas reserves of between 13.1 trillion and 21.2 trillion cubic metres.


The Indian government said in a statement on May 17 that the pipeline would be operational in 2018. India and Pakistan would each get 38 million cubic metres per day (mcmd) of gas, while the remaining 14 mcmd would be supplied to Afghanistan, it said.


Separately, an Indian Oil Ministry official said last week that the transit fee for the gas had been fixed at about 50 cents per million British thermal units (mmBtu).


India, Asia's third-largest oil consumer, imports about 80 percent of its oil needs while falling local gas output has forced it to buy costly liquefied natural gas.


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[GoodBoy]

Taliban might blow it apart.

[SamranAli]

Taliban might blow it apart.

not might but sure. I think karzai has a deal with taliban not to blow

[bindaas]

not might but sure. I think karzai has a deal with taliban not to blow

It will be difficult for Pakistan to get gas from both sides Iran or Turkmenistan.

[SamranAli]

It will be difficult for Pakistan to get gas from both sides Iran or Turkmenistan.

how it will be? Pakistan has huge demand. There is ban on new gas connection, govt has 1 million applications pending. There is loadsheding of it too. CNG and industries nef it badly plus domestic users.and demand is growing day by day.

[bindaas]

how it will be? Pakistan has huge demand. There is ban on new gas connection, govt has 1 million applications pending. There is loadsheding of it too. CNG and industries nef it badly plus domestic users.and demand is growing day by day.

But how will you complete your project because both pipelines seems like pipedreams with unstable Afghanistan and sanctions on Iran.

[KingMamba93]

pakistan should construct their pipeline with iran first regardless of the sanctions , that pipeline will deliver gas quicker than tapi can and everyone knows how much they need that energy

[RISING SUN]

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India to get Turkmenistan gas by 2017-18
The ministry of petroleum and natural gas has said that the commercial operation of $9-billion Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline is set to commence by 2017-18.

The minister of state for petroleum and natural gas, P Lakshmi said in a written reply to the Lok Sabha, “Upon completion, TAPI Project envisages supply of 38 million metric standard cubic metre per day (mmscmd) of gas to India. So far, the inter-governmental agreement, gas pipeline framework agreement and the gas sales purchase agreement have been finalized. Commercial operation of TAPI project is expected to commence in 2017-18.”

Recently, the Centre has given clearance for setting up of a special purpose vehicle for the TAPI pipeline project, allowing GAIL to be a part of it. The 1080 kilo metre pipeline would have a capacity to carry 90 mmscmd of gas, which would be shared by India, Pakistan and Afghanistan. Out of the total area, 144 km will be through Turkmenistan, 735km through Afghanistan and about 800 km via Pakistan. According to the understanding between the countries, the Dubai-based SPV, TAPI Ltd, would scout for a consortium leader to execute the project.

As per the agreement, the initial equity contribution of India in the proposed SPV would be $5 million. “Further investments would be negotiated and decided upon the induction of consortium leader and after completion of feasibility study,” the minister added.

Domestic production to rise

The minister said that according to a working group report by the ministry, the indigenous production is projected to be 41.16 MT by the end of 12th Five Year Plan period (2012-17). The demand projection of petroleum products is 186.21 MT by the end of the plan period, with an import dependency of 79.2 per cent based on demand projection.

Meanwhile, the minister said that the crude oil imports by oil companies during the from April to December period of the current financial year stood at 134.02 million metric tonne. On the other hand, crude oil production for the same period stood at 28.6 MT.

Crude oil production during the financial year 2011-12 was around 38.09 MT, compared to 33.51 MT during the financial year 2009-10. On the other hand, natural gas production has decreased to a level 114.1 mmscmd in 2012-13 from 130.2 mmscmd in 2009-10.
India likely to get gas from Turkmenistan by 2017-18 | Business Standard