UK PM paves way for EU referendum

[Hello_10]

---

---

UK PM paves way for EU referendum

British PM David Cameron has laid the foundation for a possible referendum on the UK’s EU membership, saying that “voters deserved a real choice.” He fears that UK interests might be undermined by EU legislation and said it was time for a change.

In an interview with the Sunday Telegraph, Mr. Cameron said he was not against referendums on Europe, arguing that “the British people were not happy with what they have.”

“The last government should have held a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty. They didn’t, so this Government put in place a referendum lock so that no government can ever again pass powers from Britain to Brussels without first asking the British people,” he told the daily.

He cited EU bureaucracy and the so-called “meddling” in the internal affairs as something that needed to be “scrapped” in his view.

“So what is wrong with what we’ve got? Put simply, for those of us outside the eurozone, far from there being too little Europe, there is too much of it,” he stressed.

Alluding to Friday’s summit, he said that the relationships in the EU were changing, giving rise to further integration to ensure the stability of the single currency. However, the UK has shown it can stay out of integration and things “that we don’t like such as bail-out funds.”

Despite being a member of the EU the UK has long held off against further integration. There are concerns that a more centralized banking system administered from Brussels would undermine UK sovereignty.

“As we get closer to the end point, we will need to consider how best to get the full-hearted support of the British people whether it is in a general election or in a referendum,” Cameron concluded.

Pressure building

There has been growing pressure from Cameron’s conservative party for an EU vote in recent times.
Last week party members sent a petition with 100 signatures to the PM, calling for Cameron to prepare legislation committing the country to an EU vote after the next election.

In addition, anti-EU sentiment has been growing in British society since the beginning of the European debt crisis.

A survey carried out by UK newspaper The Times found that 49 per cent of those asked wanted an immediate referendum on British membership, and a further 33 percent said one would be necessary in the next couple of years.

Only 18 percent of the 2,006 asked at the beginning of June regarded an EU referendum as unnecessary in the foreseeable future.

The UK PM’s statements came after Friday’s EU summit, which agreed on less stringent borrowing condition for European banks in a bid to stimulate growth.

It also approved the creation of a permanent bailout scheme, allowing Brussels to deliver cash injections directly to flagging banks, avoiding government taxes.

Eurosceptics have voiced concerns that the new measures to not directly address the financial downturn are merely postponing the crisis.

UK PM paves way for EU referendum — RT

[Hello_10]

Britain is that beggar who threaten also. heavily indebted economy, have lost a level of competitiveness and industries, they are among the most needy people to be with EU. this comment by UK's PM simply means that, "we dont want to be with EU" which has a sense that, "don't think that we want to be with EU", and in other words, British PM mean to say that, "UK is something on itself also, other than being part of EU." the beggars who keep threatening also........

Britain is in recession, having -ve growth for last two quarters ending March 2012. GDP of Britain, on real term adjusting inflation, is still around 4.3% less than its peak of mid 2008. and we hope Britain won't ever be able to reach its economic size, it had in mid 2008. their carbon emission reduced by 7% in 2011, which clearly means a steep slow down in energy consumption, hence it translates into slow industrial output? with that, PMI of combined Industries+Services of Britain are well below 50 points for straight last over 7-8 months, representing contraction for so long. British economy is now among the pigs, the PIIGGS economies with Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Great Britain, Greece, Spain. the pigs, which means for 'dirty' economies who earn less and spend more. and if any of these pigs leave, it will only ease pressure from Germany. Britain with around 87% public debt to GDP, with the highest Foreign Debt/GDP, Britain is nothing but on the mercy of its EU's friends. the beggars who keep threatening also..................

[Hello_10]

UK mired in recession, central bank poised to act
Thu Jun 28, 2012 7:09am EDT

UK mired in recession, central bank poised to act | Reuters

(Reuters) - Britain's economy fell back into recession faster than first thought and seems unlikely to recover for some time, data showed on Thursday, echoing grim predictions from a central bank now all but certain to revive its stimulus program next week.

The economy shrank by 0.3 percent between January and March, the Office for National Statistics said. That confirmed an earlier estimate, but revised figures for the last quarter of 2011 showed a slump of 0.4 percent, steeper than initially reported.

A spread of downbeat data highlighted broad weakness in Britain's economy, which has struggled to gain traction since the 2007/08 financial crisis as government spending cuts bite and the debt turmoil in the euro zone crushes confidence.

Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said on Tuesday that the outlook had worsened significantly in recent weeks and Britain risked falling into a downward spiral as businesses put off investment due to uncertain global prospects.

Thursday's data bolstered an already strong case for the BoE to restart its quantitative easing bond-buying program, a day after a Reuters poll of economists give a median 75 percent chance that the bank will flood the market with another 50 billion pounds of cash at its July 4/5 meeting.

"You have a lot of volatility entering the UK economic data over the next couple of quarters, including the negative impact from the Diamond Jubilee bank holiday," said Philip Shaw, economist at Investec.

"Our best guess is that the economy is broadly flat-lining and to our minds it justifies further monetary stimulus."


SLOWING DOWN

The decline in UK economic output in the first three months of this year would have been much greater were it not for the biggest jump in government spending in almost 7 years and a small rise in service sector output.

Construction output was revised lower to show its biggest decline in three years, while industrial output was also revised down to show a 0.5 percent decline on the quarter.

Output in the second quarter is likely to be even weaker, with an extra public holiday placing an additional drag on the economy.

Britain's Conservative-led coalition government had been counting on a private sector-led recovery to drive growth while it presses ahead with austerity measures aimed at eliminating a budget deficit that is still around 8 percent of GDP.

But those hopes have been quashed by the worsening crisis in the euro zone - Britain's biggest trading partner - and signs of a slowdown in the United States and emerging economies.

Thursday's data showed exports fell at their fastest pace in almost a year, with net trade shaving 0.4 percentage points off output in the first three months of 2012.

Household spending has also been squeezed by high inflation and muted wage growth, a trend confirmed by Thursday's figures which showed households' disposable income fell by 0.9 percent. That left Britons with less spare cash to set aside, driving the household saving ratio to its lowest in a year at 6.4 percent.

"We think that the recession has probably continued into the second quarter," said Vicky Redwood at Capital Economics. "There are still numerous factors likely to constrain the recovery going forward, not least tight credit conditions."

Banks have become increasingly reluctant to lend to businesses and households as they attempt to clean up their balance sheets and due to the high cost of raising capital.

Separately, BoE figures on Thursday showed British banks expect to significantly raise borrowing costs for customers over the next three months, as the cost of their own funding rises.

Britain's current account deficit also made gloomy reading, widening more than expected to 11.179 billion pounds from a shortfall of 7.228 billion pounds, equivalent to 2.9 percent of GDP.

Economists had expected the current account gap to widen to 9.0 billion pounds.

UK mired in recession, central bank poised to act | Reuters

[Hello_10]

UK slides back into recession in first double dip since 1970s

LONDON: Britain's economy slid into its second recession since the financial crisis after official data unexpectedly showed a fall in output in the first three months of 2012, piling pressure on Prime Minister David Cameron's embattled coalition government.

Wednesday's data showed that output was still 4.3 per cent below its peak in the first quarter of 2008, and the economy has only grown by 0.4 per cent since the government came t o power in the second quarter of 2010.

Industrial output was 0.4 per cent lower, while construction - which accounts for less than 8 per cent of GDP - contracted by 3.0 per cent, the biggest fall since Q1 2009. Britain's Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts growth of 0.8 per cent this year.

UK slides back into recession in first double dip since 1970s - The Economic Times

I had few economics subjects in my MBA studies in sydney and also I have been reading economics news for over last 20 years and I may say that the chances are less than 50% that Britain will ever get its economics size in real terms it had by mid 2008. at least not till 2050

[Hello_10]

-
List of countries by public debt

Russia 8.7
United Kingdom 85.7
United States 103.0
Ireland 108.4
Italy 120.9
Greece 165.3

List of countries by public debt - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia


List of countries by external debt

1. United States $15,813,740,000,000
2. United Kingdom $8,981,000,000,000
18. China $635,500,000,000
22. Russia $480,200,000,000
27. India $335,000,000,000

List of countries by external debt - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

[Hello_10]

Britain's greenhouse gas emissions fell 7 percent in 2011, putting one of the European Union's biggest emitters further ahead of its internationally binding target under the Kyoto Protocol, provisional government data showed on Thursday.

British greenhouse gas emissions down 7 percent in 2011 | Reuters

Green House Emission also refers to level of energy consumed in a country, and so steep reduction clearly translates into low industrial output in UK in 2011 . and its not about reduction of green house gases by 7% every year, its about moving from the top to bottom of the table as below, towards Afghan/ Congo, a certain 'destiny/fate' of Britain. and how 'low' they will go in this list, we are waiting to see, their 'destiny/Fate'. within next 5 to 15 years, hopefully, a level these 'industrialized nations' will reach when labor cost there will get lower than Asia, "after a free fall of economy". and it will then only stop industries moving from US/ EU to China

List of countries by carbon dioxide emissions per capita - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

[Hello_10]

Britain's borrowing habit puts it in the 'PIIGS'



Britain's debt problem vs the PIIGS - Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, Spain | This is Money

The acronym PIGS has been around since 1997, coined during the economic crisis of Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain. Since then, the acronym has been expanded: Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, Great Britain and Spain, or PIIGGS. Every one of these countries is in dire economic straits, having run up huge deficits. The deficit loans, enabling what many have called reckless spending by the PIIGGS countries, are coming due right now.

Credit Crisis – PIIGGS to the Trough

these are the heavily indebted pigs, the 'dirty' economies who earn less and spend more, and if they dont continue borrowing, then

[regular]

Okay so UK is in trouble too , needs bailouts from the EU too......

[Luffy 500]

EU is an unsustainable union. It is bound to disintegrate. Germany won't be able to handle the burden of bankrupt EU states anymore.

[Donatello]

UK is fine as being part of EU, as long as they are bounded by their stupid laws and enable UK to make it's foreign policy and trade agreements freely with rest of the world.

EU is an unsustainable union. It is bound to disintegrate. Germany won't be able to handle the burden of bankrupt EU states anymore.

the question is, why should Germany be liable to bail out those countries that don't want to do the hard work?

[Hello_10]

Families will be £7,000 out of pocket by 2015 as economic crisis creates 'ferocious squeeze' on incomes
By Kirsty Walker
PUBLISHED:07:17 GMT, 28 June 2012

Families in the UK will have an average of £7,000 less to spend by 2015, as lower wages and high unemployment hits incomes, according to new figures.

The economic crisis will continue to create a 'ferocious squeeze' on families, with rising energy, food and fuel costs also crippling families, the House of Commons analysis revealed.

Last year, the average UK family was £800 out of pocket compared with 2010. But by 2015, this is set to more than double to £1,700 per year.

Over the lifetime of this Parliament, the average family will have a total of £7,100 less to spend between 2011 and 2015.

The figures came as Bank of England governor Mervyn King warned that Britain is not even half way through the economic crisis and should brace itself for five more years of turmoil.

Mr King admitted that he was ‘pessimist’ about the state of the economy given the ongoing turmoil in the eurozone.

The figures, which are based on Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts, will make worrying reading for Chancellor George Osborne as they show that the financial pain for families will worsen ahead of the next General Election.

The OBR revised down its forecasts for real household disposable income since the Government’s 2010 spending review.

Rachel Reeves, Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury, said the hit on families was a direct result of the weakening economy.

She said the OBR’s initial forecasts had already taken into account the direct impact on household finances of tax rises and spending cuts such as last year’s VAT rise and this year’s reduction in tax credits.

In a speech today, Miss Reeves will warn that ordinary families have paid a ‘heavy price’ for the lack of economic growth and blame the Government for ‘choking off recovery’.

She will tell the Resolution Foundation: ‘The failure of David Cameron and George Osborne’s economic plan will cost families dearly. Not only are they hitting family finances hard with big tax rises and deep cuts to tax credits, but by choking off the recovery and pushing Britain into a double-dip recession families are earning less as well.

'Even if the economy eventually recovers as the government hopes, by the time of the next election families will now be £1,700 worse off than if the recovery had been sustained. This is a permanent loss of income.

‘These shocking figures show the heavy price Britain will pay for years to come for George Osborne’s economic failure and years of lost growth.’

Families will be £7,000 out of pocket by 2015 as economic crisis creates 'ferocious squeeze' on incomes | This is Money

The analysis, based on official Government figures, highlights the nightmare facing families. The Bank of England has warned that households are facing a ‘ferocious’ squeeze on take-home pay.

Since records began in in 1948, ‘real’ disposable income, which means it has been adjusted for inflation, has risen almost every year. But the figures show that this is now dropping dramatically.

[Hello_10]

UK PMI Contracts, Hopes For QE Return

LONDON--The UK's manufacturing sector contracted for a second straight month in June, supporting the view that the Bank of England will announce an increase in its bond-buying program in order to help stimulate the ailing economy later this week.

The PMI for the manufacturing sector rose to 48.6 in June from May's 45.9, above the average forecast for 47.4, but still below the key 50 level which separates expansion from contraction and confirming the sector continues to shrink, data from Markit and the Chartered Institute of Purchasing & Supply showed Monday.

That brings the average manufacturing PMI reading for the second quarter to 48.2, the weakest since the second quarter of 2009 and suggesting a third straight quarterly contraction in U.K. gross domestic product.

"Manufacturing is seeing lots of volatility at the moment, due to factors such as the jubilee holidays, making it very difficult to see what the underlying trend is," said Rob Dobson, senior economist at Markit.

"However, there's no denying that the second quarter as a whole is looking weaker than the first quarter, suggesting manufacturing output may have contracted by at least 0.5% and therefore be acting as a substantial drag on the economy for the fourth successive quarter," Mr. Dobson said.

The PMI also reported new orders deteriorated for a third straight month as global demand remained weak amid the ongoing euro-zone debt crisis. And, as past PMI surveys haven't reflected the full extent of the weakness due to additional national holidays, the official data for June could show an even larger decline than implied by the PMI.

"Given that the CIPS survey does not seem to have picked up the detrimental impact of one-off bank holidays on output in the past, there is a strong chance that the official figures will be weaker than the CIPS survey suggests," said Samuel Tombs, UK economist at Capital Economics. "It seems very likely that the manufacturing sector has remained a drag on GDP growth in the second quarter," Mr. Tombs said.

Other details of the survey showed that while output rebounded from the steep May drop and prices being paid for raw goods by manufacturers fell at the fastest pace, in June since May 2009, the continued weakness in demand led to a second straight fall in employment.

The overall tone of the survey is downbeat and doesn't diminish expectations that the BOE will announce a third round of quantitative easing Thursday.

"Fundamentally the UK economy remains in a fragile condition," said Ross Walker, economist for the Royal Bank of Scotland. "We look for a 50 billion pounds ($78.4 billion) expansion of gilt purchases."

UK PMI Contracts, Hopes For QE Return

[Zeeshan360]

This is Pakistani economy section

[Zakii]

-
List of countries by public debt

Russia 8.7
United Kingdom 85.7
United States 103.0
Ireland 108.4
Italy 120.9
Greece 165.3

List of countries by public debt - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The condition of Britain is still much better than European countries. You are talking about the public debt then all the major economies has the highest public debt in the world. If UK has 85.7% of her GDP, how about France's 86.5%, Germany 82%, Italy 120%, Ireland 108% and Belgium 98.7% ? these are few of the largest economies of Europe

Are they better than UK? no not at all...

The European Union would love to see UK becoming part of European zone, they would love to see Norway, Denmark, Sweden, Finland and Switzerland becoming part of the Euro-zone because these are the healthy economies but it is the choice of these countries that has not shown desire to become part of European union because they are already living similar or better life comparing to European Union.

[Hello_10]

---

---

Jason Cowley: when, not if, for a Euro referendum
02 July 2012

We are living through what economists are calling a “contained depression"

UK 10-year bond yields remain at historic lows of 1.54%. The Bank of England interest rate has been frozen at 0.5% for more than three years. Output remains 4.4% lower than it was at its peak in 2008. The economy has contracted by 0.4% since the government’s Comprehensive Spending Review of October 2010.

If the government has a coherent strategy for recovery, no one seems to know what it is. From the right the chancellor, George Osborne, is being urged to cut public spending faster, especially on welfare; to cut taxes; and introduce more supply-side reforms such as liberalising employment law, shredding red tape and so on. If Britain wants growth, it should liberate entrepreneurs, as Margaret Thatcher did in the 1980s.

From the left, the chancellor is being urged to cut public spending more slowly, to show greater flexibility and even to take advantage of extraordinarily low interest rates to borrow so as to invest in large-scale infrastructure projects. You cannot cut your way out of recession, it is said. What is required is greater fiscal activism and more, not less, government.

Meanwhile, the crisis in the eurozone will not be resolved any time soon. How to reconcile the wealth of Germany with the desperate poverty of Greece? Again, no one seems to know. What will happen if Greece chaotically exits the eurozone, destroying confidence in the integrity of the single currency? Or if leftist parties in Greece and elsewhere continue to do well in elections – or win, as Francoise Hollande’s Socialists did in France – and use their mandates to challenge the prevailing EU-wide orthodoxy on austerity? There are many questions but few answers.

What is clear is that the hard eurosceptics within the Conservative Party, and outside of it, have been vindicated: the “remorseless logic” as David Cameron once put it of monetary union is that it would ultimately lead to fiscal union. For the sceptics and anti-federalists, the project to create a single currency was flawed from the outset.

The Mediterranean nations are enduring extraordinary hardship as austerity measures lead to the degradation of public services and rising unemployment (more than half of all young people aged between 16 and 24 are jobless in Spain), even as the markets push their borrowing costs higher.

For better or worse, the euro countries are being cajoled (if not quite coerced) by Germany towards agreeing some kind of “fiscal compact”. The eurozone is being remade and restructured and with it the institutions of the European Union.

What does this mean for the United Kingdom, which is part of the single European market but remains outside the eurozone? The simple answer is this: a referendum on the UK’s relationship with and even membership of the EU is inevitable, if not before the 2015 general election then in 2016.

The prime minister and the foreign secretary, William Hague, are self-declared eurosceptics, but they are also pragmatists: they long to weaken the hold the EU has over this country’s affairs, especially the supra-national European Court of Human Rights in Strasbourg. But they would not wish for a straight in/out referendum on EU membership, as some of their more restive backbenchers would. They want the UK to continue to enjoy the benefits of being part of the single market, but accept that any further transfers of power to EU institutions must be agreed by the British people in a referendum.

In his new book Europe Restructured? The Eurozone Crisis and Its Aftermath, David Owen, the former Labour foreign secretary and leader of the defunct Social Democratic Party, proposes that any future referendum should ask two questions:

1. Do you want the UK to be part of the single market in a wider European Community? Yes/No.
2. Do you want the UK to remain in the EU, keeping open the option of joining the more integrated eurozone? Yes/No.

Over the next three to four years the British state is set to be profoundly challenged by referendums on Scottish independence and on the UK’s relationship with Europe. Month by month the old pre-crisis certainties are crumbling but what will replace them? No one knows.

Jason Cowley is editor of the New Statesman

Jason Cowley: when, not if, for a Euro referendum | Economia