NYTimes: Russian Booster Rocket Fails to Deliver Satellites (Again?)

[Martian2]

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So China had 2 failures in last 2 years according to your statistic. Assuming constant rate of chinese failures we expect China to have 10 failures over ten year period. That is 10 "normalized" launch failures per decade. How is it 10 times better? You are really some funny troll

Proof that "normalized" Russian civilian rocket failure rate is TEN times higher than China's

It is a fact that China had 1.5 civilian rocket launch failures in the last 15 years.

Since you're trying to be a smart aleck, I will prove to you that Russia's civilian rocket launch record is much worse than China's record.

Russian civilian rocket launch failures by year (see citation below).

2012: 1 failure (see post #1)
2011: 4 failures (2 R-7, 1 Proton, and 1 Rokot/Briz KM)
2010: 1 failure (1 Proton)
2009: 1 failure (1 R-7)
2008: 2 failures (1 Proton and 1 Zenit)
2007: 2 failures (1 Proton and 1 Zenit)
2006: 2 failures (1 Proton and 1 Dnepr)
2005: 3 failures (1 R-7, 1 Rokot KM, and 1 Volna)
2004: 2 failures (1 Zenit and 1 Tsyklon 3)
2003: 0 failure
2002: 2 failures (1 Soyuz and 1 Proton)
2001: 0 failure
2000: 1 failure (Tsyklon 3)
1999: 2 failures (2 Protons)
1998: 2 failuers (1 Zenit and 1 Tsyklon 3)

Total: 25 Russian rocket failures in last 15 years

Reference: http://www.spacelaunchreport.com/

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PtldM3 claimed that Russia had roughly twice the number of rocket launches than China in the last 15 years. Therefore, we divide the number of Russian rocket launch failures by two to "normalize" the failure rate.

Russian "normalized" rocket failures = 25 /2 = 12.5

Chinese rocket failures = 1.5

In conclusion, I have proven that Russia's civilian rocket launch failure rate is roughly 10 times higher than China's during the last 15 years.

This is a fair comparison, because China's rocket technology has matured in the last 15 years. Russia had an earlier start and can't claim their rocket technology is not mature.

The bottom line is that mature Chinese rocket technology is about ten times better than mature Russian rocket technology. Just look at the total number of Russian rocket failures on the list. It's obvious.

[anarchy 99]

Russia is yesterday's news

[zzzz]

PtldM3 claimed that Russia had roughly twice the number of rocket launches than China in the last 15 years. Therefore, we divide the number of Russian rocket launch failures by two to "normalize" the failure rate.

Russian "normalized" rocket failures = 25 /2 = 12.5

Chinese rocket failures = 1.5

In conclusion, I have proven that Russia's civilian rocket launch failure rate is roughly 10 times higher than China's during the last 15 years.

This is a fair comparison, because China's rocket technology has matured in the last 15 years. Russia had an earlier start and can't claim their rocket technology is not mature.

Cannt stop laughing looking at your desperate attempts to play with numbers
1. China had 2 failures not 1,5 or you can count Russian failures as 0.5 also
2. PtldM3 did a mistake in his calculations, Russia performed about 4 times more launches than China in the last 15 years.
3. Russian "normalized" launch failures would be 25/4 = 6.25 over 15 years
4. Considering such ridiculously low number of Chinese launches before 2007 we need to take data over longer period for China lets say from 1990 till today. The number of launches for China will increase insignificantly, considering that China launched about 1-2 rockets per year at that time, so the ratio of Russian and Chinese launches will still be 4 to 1.
5. China had 7 failures since 1990. Compare it to 6,5 normalized launch failures for Russia and you can see that China has bigger failure rate though Russian vehiciles can carry several times more payload therefore much more complicated and more prone to failures.

[Apóllōn]

I think it would be lame to compare Chinese and Russian space technologies.

US, Russia (former Soviet Union) are well ahead in this. Its a fact that China, India got help in space tech from former Soviet Union.

China surely have made indigenous development but its still early to compare it with Russia. Remember Russia (former Soviet Union) built MIR space station way back in 80's...

[kawaraj]

We admit Russia has a glory past(or those shared with USSR). But today news are all about Russia's failure.

This is not an Launch rate issue but an overall technical downfall or outdated overnight. We have witnessed all those plane crashes, ship sinking, too many negative news about Russia, and not to mention those failed test and excise unknown to the world or covered up stories in remote Siberia.

Russians need to recognize this before a bouceback (if they ever will). If you guys are so defensive it's not easy to get out of the pit. Chinese and Americans are not waiting for you. Japan still hold some crucial part of the most cutting edge tech. So wake up from old dream and see the harsh fact. I wish you guys have a good luck to relive those old time glories.

[ptldM3]

1. My citations for Chinese launch failures are from reputable mainstream sources, such as NasaSpaceflight.com.

I hate to burst your bubble but my source has a detailed description of all the rocket failures China has had. In other words you can always verify. And just because your source has the words NASA does not make it reputable. It is not actually NASA.

Your citation is a text file. Give me a break. That's not a reputable citation. Anybody can create a text file. You lose.

It comes from space launch report. And please stop denying that China never had those accidents, you’re a petty loser. A detailed description of rocket, ID type, payload and failure is given, it’s not difficult to do a quick search to find out your claim that China has only had 1.5 failures in 15 years is a load of rubbish.

You can't count the two Chinese KT-1 tech demonstration launches in 2002 and 2003. The KT-1 is not a commercial launch vehicle. Those two failed MILITARY tests were prior to China's successful anti-satellite (ASAT) test in 2007.


You are comparing apples and oranges. If you're going to bring in China's two failed KT-1 tests for 2002 and 2003 then I'm going to bring in the numerous Russian Bulava test failures. A comparison is useful only if you compare apples to apples (e.g. civilian rocket launches). You're trying to compare apples to oranges.[/color]

Wow this is just pitiful. Why would it matter if it was commercial or not? They were Chinese rockets that failed miserably. By your token we can also ignore many Russian failures because at the time they were not ‘commercial’.


And the Bulava is an ICBM that was never designed to go beyond earth‘s orbit, the KT-1’s were designed for that.

3. Regarding your last point, my claim that China's launch record is TEN times better than Russia's has already taken into account the larger number of Russian launches.

Your claim is complete nonsense, there are a number of Chinese failures that you are simply refusing to count. Figures don’t lie but you do.

Russia had 7 launch failures in 3 years. That's 2.3 launch failures per year. Over a ten year period, assuming constancy in Russian launch failures, we expect 23 total launch failures over a decade.

Talk about skewed statistic. Try counting equal number of launch than using failure rates to come up with a percentage.


Lets take a 3 year average. From 2009-2011.



Russia has conducted 94 launches in that period and had 6 failure (7 according to you). That is 6.3% or 7.3 % failure rate according to you. That’s 93.7%-92.7% success rate.


Out of 94 launches China has had from 2011-1999 China had had a an 8.5% failure rate. That’s a 91.5% success rate.





This is a fair, real and un-bias report and not some skewed figures where launches aren’t accounted for.



And here is a statistic Russia/Soviets had 2,932 launches while China has had a whopping 236 launches. :lol

According to your statistic (which looks about right to me), Russia launched twice the number of rockets than China. 23 total Russian launch failures divided by two would equal 11.5 "normalized" launch failures over a decade when we compare to Chinese launch failures.

Talk about being bashed with a dumb stick, how do you even come up with this stupid rubbish? China has had multiple rocket disasters in a year. Lets “normalize’ that, in a decade China will have 20 launch failures “normalized” Better yet lets ‘normalize’ the launch per failure. China has had multiple failures per year at a time when it only launched several rockets per year. Let ‘normalize’ that, according to Martian we can make some random prediction based on skewed stats and say China will have a 100% ‘normalized’ failure rate.

By the way, the timeframe under discussion is the last 15 years (which means 1998-2012 inclusive). I have no idea why you are pushing the timeframe back to 1995. That would become an 18 year timeframe. I didn't lie. You can't count.

More like you can’t read, I only went back to 1999.

Anyway, 1.5 Chinese launch failures over 15 years equal one "normalized" Chinese launch failure over a ten year period.

Lear math, use real statistics, and stop denying China had failures. All one needs to do is verify.

[anarchy 99]

We admit Russia has a glory past(or those shared with USSR). But today news are all about Russia's failure.

This is not an Launch rate issue but an overall technical downfall or outdated overnight. We have witnessed all those plane crashes, ship sinking, too many negative news about Russia, and not to mention those failed test and excise unknown to the world or covered up stories in remote Siberia.

Russians need to recognize this before a bouceback (if they ever will). If you guys are so defensive it's not easy to get out of the pit. Chinese and Americans are not waiting for you. Japan still hold some crucial part of the most cutting edge tech. So wake up from old dream and see the harsh fact. I wish you guys have a good luck to relive those old time glories.

'

Russia won't ever come back. They are done. They were great when they united with other countries to form the soviet union. Russia only has resources, even their military leadership is falling. The Russian economy relies on oil and gas revenues. The Russian population is in decline.

As I said, Russia had its time under the sun, now new players are emerging.

In 20 years, Russia will be irrelevant.

[Solomon2]

They messed up a mission to mars recently aswell. Russia is turning into a laughing stock.

We Americans use Russian-designed and -built rocket engines in our own boosters now; Russian input to U.S. scientists about their Mars failures contributed to re-designs of the landing systems the U.S. employed from the 1970s to the early 2000s.

[zzzz]

In 20 years, Russia will be irrelevant.

Will be even more relevant than ever. Will still control most of Eurasia and most neighboring Union countries. Will still control great share of world energy. Will capitalize more than ever on China VS West struggle and milk you both

Russian sphere of influence will still be Middle East, Central Asia, whole Europe and Arctic Ocean.
Chinese sphere of influence will still be Paracel Islands

[ptldM3]

Russia won't ever come back. They are done. They were great when they united with other countries to form the soviet union. Russia only has resources,

And China has no resources. With severe overpopulation the demand for food and oil is hard to meet. As a result, China has to import basic survival commodities. Is it any surprise that Chinese fisherman are illegally fishing in Russian, Korean, and Vietnamese, territorial waters? Too much of a demand for food, no regulations and over fishing are driving hordes of Chinese fisherman to illegally fish. Your food is even fatal to eat not to mention all the diseases that come from the animals in China.

even their military leadership is falling.

Source for this. China has no real military leadership. When was the last time China faced anyone? And how did that end for them?

The Russian economy relies on oil and gas revenues.

And The Chinese economy relies on the US economy. Chinese export to Europe is dwindling, this year “orders from the 27-nation European Union for Chinese goods collapsed” (Forbes). In this forum we often see Chinese members calling for the destruction and disintegration of the US. If that was the case the Chinese economy would be hit hard.

The Russian population is in decline.

It actually started to grow. I also wouldn’t brag about your population. Where do people come from? Answer females. What does that say about Chinese women?

[Audio]

Source for this. China has no real military leadership.

O, but it does. And it wants more power.

BEIJING — During a holiday banquet for China’s military leadership early this year, a powerful general lashed out in a drunken rage against what he believed was a backhanded move to keep him from being promoted to the military’s top ruling body.
The general, Zhang Qinsheng, vented his fury in front of President Hu Jintao, according to four people with knowledge of the event. At the banquet, he even shoved a commanding general making toasts; Mr. Hu walked out in disgust.
The general’s tirade was one of a series of events this year that have fueled concerns among Communist Party leaders over the level of control they exercise over military officials, who are growing more outspoken and desire greater influence over policy and politics.
With China’s once-a-decade leadership transition only months away, the party is pushing back with a highly visible campaign against disloyalty and corruption, even requiring all officers to report financial assets.

NYT: Outspoken military alarms China's leaders - World news - The New York Times - NBCNews.com

Looking more and more like Japan prior to WWII...

And The Chinese economy relies on the US economy. Chinese export to Europe is dwindling, this year “orders from the 27-nation European Union for Chinese goods collapsed” (Forbes). In this forum we often see Chinese members calling for the destruction and disintegration of the US. If that was the case the Chinese economy would be hit hard.

As for all i know EU still is largest trading partner despite the crisis and the associated reduction of demand.
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on topic: can you post a link to the site you get launch info please?
Ive been using the UN launch site and its tedious and extremely nontransparent....a testament to the UN itself i suppose.

[Vassnti]

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It should also be noted that other countries such as the US use Russian engines to power some of thir rockets.

And aircraft, if Russian tech is as bad as martin2 says the entire Chinese airforce is about to fall out of the sky in 10..9..8..7..

Sad two failures in a row but we should remember it was Russian rockets and Russian technology that was the only thing keeping the guys in the international space stations stocked with food and toilet paper.

One request though could you please stop aiming any failed satelites at the Pacific, we live here