Iran's Nuclear Timetable

[RIZVI]

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ran’s bank of rapidly spinning centrifuges has produced a stockpile of low-enriched uranium, able to fuel nuclear reactors, but able also to fuel nuclear weapons if further enriched by re-circulating it through the centrifuges. The re-circulation raises the concentration of the uranium isotope U-235, which fissions in nuclear weapons such as the one dropped on Hiroshima.

Based on the amount of low-enriched uranium Iran has stockpiled, and the amount it is believed to be producing each month, the Wisconsin Project estimates that by December 2008, Iran had accumulated enough U-235 to fuel one bomb quickly. "Quickly," in this context, means two to three months – about the time it would take Iran to raise the level of U-235 in its uranium stockpile from 3.5 percent to over 90 percent.

[RIZVI]

As Iran increases the number of centrifuge machines it is operating, and increases its stockpile of low-enriched uranium, it will consolidate its status as a "virtual" nuclear weapon state.

Iran's progress towards this status as of June 1, 2009 is estimateda below:

* Amount of U-235 contained in Iran’s stockpile of low-enriched uranium:
31.7 kg


* Amount of this U-235 produced each month:
2 kg


* Amount of this U-235 required to fuel a first-generation implosion bombd:
21.6 kg


* Date by which Iran probably had stockpiled the above:
December 2008


* Number of additional months needed to convert this low-enriched uranium to weapon-grade g:
Two to three


* Date by which Iran may have enough U-235 to fuel a second bomb:
October 2009

[RIZVI]

Additional estimates: Moving from reactor-grade to weapon-grade uranium

* Amount of uranium hexafluoride (UF6) enriched to 3.5 percent U-235 now on hand:
1,339 kg

* Average daily production rate of this low-enriched UF6:
2.75 kg

* Amount of this low-enriched UF6 needed to produce a bomb’s worth of weapon-grade UF6:
914 kg

* Number of separative work units (SWUs)m needed to accomplish the above:
840

* Number of first generation IR-1 centrifuges being fed with UF6 at the Natanz Fuel Enrichment Plant:
4,920

* Average number of SWUs each centrifuge now appears to be producing per year:
.3

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* Average number of SWUs each centrifuge produced per year between December 2007 and November 2008:
.5

* Total number of centrifuges installed at Natanz:
7,052

* Number of SWUs these 7,052 centrifuges are assumed to be capable of producing per year:
7,000

* Number of months needed for these 7,052 centrifuges operating at such a capacity to produce 840 SWUs:
1.5

[RIZVI]

Iran appears to be operating its centrifuges well below their estimated capacity. Iran’s monthly production rate of low-enriched uranium may have increased since the beginning of the year, but this is because more machines are operating, not because these machines are operating more efficiently.

[RIZVI]

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