China and India: Contest of the century

[CardSharp]

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what??? with even a growth rate of 6-7 % we will reach to US current position in next 2 decade. do your calculation properly

Original Post By majesticpankaj

Well I think people are underestimating how far ahead the US is.

lets say 7% GDP growth per year for India
$1.25 Trillion US dollars - 2009 India
$14.25 Trillion US dollar - 2009 USA


FV=1.25Tx(1+0.07)^20
= 3.87 Trillion dollars in 20 years not taking in inflations and PPP.

China's current GDP 4.9 Trillion.
Assume tentatively 8%

FV=4.91Tx(1+0.08)^20
=22.89 Trillion dollars in 20 years not taking in inflations and PPP.


$14.25 Trillion US dollar - 2009 USA
assume tentatively 2% growth (recent economist estimate)

FV=14.25Tx(1+0.02)^20
=21.17 Trillion dollars in 20 years not taking in inflations and PPP.

All this is by no means certain.

[majesticpankaj]

Well I think people are underestimating how far ahead the US is.

lets say 7% GDP growth per year for India
$1.25 Trillion US dollars - 2009 India
$14.25 Trillion US dollar - 2009 USA


FV=1.25Tx(1+0.07)^20
= 3.87 Trillion dollars in 20 years not taking in inflations and PPP.

China's current GDP 4.9 Trillion.
Assume tentatively 8%

FV=4.91Tx(1+0.08)^20
=22.89 Trillion dollars in 20 years not taking in inflations and PPP.


$14.25 Trillion US dollar - 2009 USA
assume tentatively 2% growth (recent economist estimate)

FV=14.25Tx(1+0.02)^20
=21.17 Trillion dollars in 20 years not taking in inflations and PPP.

All this is by no means certain.

Original Post By CardSharp

actually u did wrong calculations... by the way as per GoI with the implementation of GST we will reach to 4 bn dollar within 5 yr. now we continue on this track we will surely reach to american level.

[justanobserver]

Which, admittedly, could make communications amongst the various states/provinces a bit difficult. Perhaps India should try to promote her own version of the Chinese Mandarin (a native Indian language, not English)?

Original Post By siegecrossbow

India tried to implemet Hindi as national language but there were riots and all . Hindi is understood in most of North India as it is derived from Sanskrit . However there was resistance from Southern states mainly Tamil Nadu as languages there have Dravidian influence.

End result is that different Northies (guys from north india but from different states) communicate via Hindi. Northies and Southies communicate via English and different Southies communicate via English.

Indians generally are trilingual/bilingual, for North Indians Hindi is generally 1st/2nd language and English is 3rd.

[CardSharp]

actually u did wrong calculations... by the way as per GoI with the implementation of GST we will reach to 4 bn dollar within 5 yr. now we continue on this track we will surely reach to american level.

Original Post By majesticpankaj

How did they get that number and what's wrong with mine. I just took GDP growth and current GDP numbers to get a future value.

and 4 trillion(I'm assuming you meant trillion not billion) in 5 years means that India has to grow by 750 billion a year or 26% a year.

[sunny001]

Well I think people are underestimating how far ahead the US is.

lets say 7% GDP growth per year for India
$1.25 Trillion US dollars - 2009 India
$14.25 Trillion US dollar - 2009 USA


FV=1.25Tx(1+0.07)^20
= 3.87 Trillion dollars in 20 years not taking in inflations and PPP.

China's current GDP 4.9 Trillion.
Assume tentatively 8%

FV=4.91Tx(1+0.08)^20
=22.89 Trillion dollars in 20 years not taking in inflations and PPP.


$14.25 Trillion US dollar - 2009 USA
assume tentatively 2% growth (recent economist estimate)

FV=14.25Tx(1+0.02)^20
=21.17 Trillion dollars in 20 years not taking in inflations and PPP.

All this is by no means certain.

Original Post By CardSharp

Well, I am sure India cannot exceed US in 2 decades unless it is develops at over 13-14% every year. GST should help with a sustained 9-10% growth in India. While you calculated the absolute numbers, you forget the increase in value of rupee compared to a dollar. This is what happened to China while its GDP was only 2.4 trillion dollars in 2007 it quickly raised to 4.9 trillion dollars in 2010. India has great potential to bridge the gap in GDP in nominal terms considering there is a wide value difference between dollar and rupee. With a sustained growth, the difference could be narrowed down in may be 30 to 40 years. And for that to happen, India has to get its policies right and improve its infrastructure.

[sunny001]

How did they get that number and what's wrong with mine. I just took GDP growth and current GDP numbers to get a future value.

and 4 trillion(I'm assuming you meant trillion not billion) in 5 years means that India has to grow by 750 billion a year or 26% a year.

Original Post By CardSharp

$4 trillion is ridiculously exaggerated. Actually with the implementation of GST, according to a research paper, India's GDP growth rate could be increased by 1.5 to 2%. So India's growth rate expected to exceed 10% by 2013. Finance Minister said India could quickly double its GDP with its implementation. By 2015, he is expecting it to be around 2 trillion dollars.

[CardSharp]

$4 trillion is ridiculously exaggerated. Actually with the implementation of GST, according to a research paper, India's GDP growth rate could be increased by 1.5 to 2%. So India's growth rate expected to exceed 10% by 2013. Finance Minister said India could quickly double its GDP with its implementation. By 2015, he is expected it to be around 2 trillion dollars.

Original Post By sunny001

That seems a lot more reasonable and mathematically possible

[sunny001]

That seems a lot more reasonable and mathematically possible

and

Original Post By CardSharp

Sorry I missed that remark there.

[IND151]

Indian Economy 2010 Overview: Development in the Global Economy Post Recession. VMW Blog!

[IND151]

http://www.theodora.com/wfbcurrent/i...a_economy.html

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India Economy Survey 2010 [Report]

[IND151]

Indian economy vs Chinese economy, which is better ? | FeedTheBull

[IND151]

The root problem is that once corruption has already set it, it would not help to change from a democratic government to an autocratic one, infact it will just make things worse.

China in it's founding days is pretty 'clean'. Even with that corruption sets in so now you still need periodic clean up from the central government, which managed to remain largely unaffected. But suppose china has started off with democratic government when it was still unstable, then corruption sets in at the high levels it is beyond salvage.

So the question of how to address corruption here is more than just a comparison of democratic vs autocratic government system. A corrupt autocratic government absolutely won't help things. Autocracies have polarising effects, they make good more efficient and bad more horrible.

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Corruption in China growing at least as fast as the economy

[IND151]

SUCH LIES-SUCH LIES!

[IND151]

BBC News - Corruption up among China government officials

---------- Post added at 11:44 AM ---------- Previous post was at 11:43 AM ----------

Corruption in China growing at least as fast as the economy

---------- Post added at 11:45 AM ---------- Previous post was at 11:44 AM ----------

Corruption in China: How Bad is It? - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

[IND151]

Public Corruption: Have You No Shame? | China Hearsay

---------- Post added at 11:46 AM ---------- Previous post was at 11:46 AM ----------

Asia Times Online :: China News, China Business News, Taiwan and Hong Kong News and Business.