China plans huge investment in next-generation chips

[CAPRICORN-88]

I am electrical engineer My bet: the chance you succeed is lower than 10 percent. The article likens making chips is like making atomic bombs. That is wrong. Making advanced chips is hundred if not thousands times harder. You need international cooperation if you want to make chips. But in your case you are a lone wolf. Xi Jingping pours in $1.4 trillion? he will fail. Waste of money.

IMO you should quit your job and becomes a clairvoyant.

As least you won't be at fault since your prediction appears to have less than 1% of ever coming true. You can always blame it on the crystal ball.

Engineers based their probable conclusion by experiments, data analysis, etc
Most importantly in this case on funding.

Yours is based on empty words and bigotry.

 

[CAPRICORN-88]

China doesn't have to do everything. If it is Chinese company who firstly finds the only path that leads to critical development of new generation chip, China will control the technology standard. Which can be a weapon used to other countries. Other countries have to share their technologies with China. This is what US did before. Do you really think other countries follow US ban because they are allies of US?

All these armchairs critics are pretty worried for whatever reason but based on past track records, China have never failed to impress us.
Once China leadership set its goal, it seldom goes wrong or failed. That is my observation.
The West have still not figure out the magical formula in China's success stories.

 

[IblinI]

bro Vietnam military uses Soviet calibre 152mm, not Nato 155mm.
But we are off topic there aren’t much pics some are published. Weapons and ammo are made in factories like these.

View attachment 667058View attachment 667059View attachment 667060View attachment 667061

Oh, I see, thumb up, gives credit where it is due.

 

[CAPRICORN-88]

Example.
China J-20 should not be even in operational or service yet until 2025.
These were according to the predictions made by Western aviation experts.
So all these J-20 we are seeing must be fake.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

I am electrical engineer My bet: the chance you succeed is lower than 10 percent. The article likens making chips is like making atomic bombs. That is wrong. Making advanced chips is hundred if not thousands times harder. You need international cooperation if you want to make chips. But in your case you are a lone wolf. Xi Jingping pours in $1.4 trillion? he will fail. Waste of money.

good thing that China has already made chips since the 1970's with a commercial fab since 1994. In contrast, right now Vietnam does not have a single fab, commercial OR government. I mean Vietnam should start off by learning stainless steel from 1840 before thinking too much about semiconductor.

I understand that things that you haven't done before is like harder than climbing Mt. Everest. But for organizations that have done it before, it's relatively straightforward application of known processes.

besides, didn't you say you were in software? you don't know jack shit about semiconductors.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

You make the typical mistake. Not all things can be solved by more money more people. Can you make cars like Germany and Japan can? No. Advanced fighter jets as F35 or Typhoon rely on international cooperations. Modern BMWs, Audi, Mercedes need parts of France, Italy. IQs from different different people are required to make good stuffs. You think you can do everything by yourself. Ok good luck.

Critical logical fallacy: you assume that countries are equal. They are not. Otherwise, Vietnam and Liechtenstein are equal.

Chinese companies do cooperate with others. For example, SMIC has fabs in Beijing, Shenzhen and Shanghai. That's further apart than Berlin from Paris and Milan with different cultures at each. But united under 1 regulatory framework and 1 language. Already more efficient than EU.

 

[Feng Leng]

The new generation chip is a new battlefield. No IP traps waiting for the new comers. Which is an important reason why China can not succeed in the traditional chips. I do have high hope for it if China decides to use whole country's resources to develop it.

We should just suspend American IP in response to the Americans breaking WTO rules.

 

[Feng Leng]

You make the typical mistake. Not all things can be solved by more money more people. Can you make cars like Germany and Japan can? No. Advanced fighter jets as F35 or Typhoon rely on international cooperations. Modern BMWs, Audi, Mercedes need parts of France, Italy. IQs from different different people are required to make good stuffs. You think you can do everything by yourself. Ok good luck.

China already makes the best cars in the world.

 

[Feng Leng]

Example.
China J-20 should not be in operational or service yet until 2025.
These were the prediction from Western aviation experts.
So all these J-20 we are seeing must be fake.

J-20 have been upgraded to all domestic engines this year. By 2025, they will be flying with WS-15.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

China already makes the best cars in the world.

gas cars will be obsolete within a few decades and used primarily for nostalgic antique collectors.

 

[Viet]

Critical logical fallacy: you assume that countries are equal. They are not. Otherwise, Vietnam and Liechtenstein are equal.

Chinese companies do cooperate with others. For example, SMIC has fabs in Beijing, Shenzhen and Shanghai. That's further apart than Berlin from Paris and Milan with different cultures at each. But united under 1 regulatory framework and 1 language. Already more efficient than EU.

Sure the distance Beijing to Shanghai is not small. But you don’t know one thing called Paradoxon of IQ. Let’s say you put 100 chinese engineers with an averaged IQ of 100 together in a cage they should develop a super chip that can rival Qualcomm. Now comes Xi Jingping made in China 2025. He puts 100 engineers more into the same cage, again with IQ of 100 per person. The result: the group IQ sinks to 80. Instead of 10 years to develop the chip, the larger group of 200 engineers need 20 years.

there is a reason why the US is technology superpower. The country is racially diverse. In your case I see little to no hope to success.

 

[casual]

I am electrical engineer My bet: the chance you succeed is lower than 10 percent. The article likens making chips is like making atomic bombs. That is wrong. Making advanced chips is hundred if not thousands times harder. You need international cooperation if you want to make chips. But in your case you are a lone wolf. Xi Jingping pours in $1.4 trillion? he will fail. Waste of money.

If you are EE then you must know the percent of Chinese students at world's best engineering colleges and the amount of Chinese engineers at companies worldwide. Anyways, even if China fails to be the first to 3rd Gen chips, it wouldn't be a waste of money since US won't be selling China any. China needs to develop the ability to develop it's own chips regardless.

 

[Mista]

The new generation chip is a new battlefield. No IP traps waiting for the new comers. Which is an important reason why China can not succeed in the traditional chips. I do have high hope for it if China decides to use whole country's resources to develop it.

Ignore the sensationalist title lol.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

Sure the distance Beijing to Shanghai is not small. But you don’t know one thing called Paradoxon of IQ. Let’s say you put 100 chinese engineers with an averaged IQ of 100 together in a cage they should develop a super chip that can rival Qualcomm. Now comes Xi Jingping made in China 2025. He puts 100 engineers more into the same cage, again with IQ of 100 per person. The result: the group IQ sinks to 80. Instead of 10 years to develop the chip, the larger group of 200 engineers need 20 years.

there is a reason why the US is technology superpower. The country is racially diverse. In your case I see little to no hope to success.

where is the rule that says this must happen? what law says that the more people you put on a project the more absolute time it takes?

by your logic, Intel and TSMC should be easily outmaneuvered by small startups. But they aren't. There have been zero new foundry startups that weren't part of existing billion dollar companies like SMIC or Tsinghua Unigroup for decades.

Guess what other country is racially diverse? Brazil.

 

[Figaro]

J-20 have been upgraded to all domestic engines this year. By 2025, they will be flying with WS-15.

J-20 and even aeroengines are significantly easier for China to develop than IC chips ... if China can truly build a domestic chip industry, then that would be a huge accomplishment given how the chip supply is so integrated into global supply chains, much of which runs through the US.