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Holy Rivers and Holy Wars

waraich66

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South Asia: Holy Rivers and Holy War
Three of the seven South Asian states -- Pakistan, Bangladesh and Nepal -- are involved in water-sharing conflicts with India. These conflicts are exacerbated by the fact that these countries are mainly agrarian economies.

Tensions between India and Pakistan are focused on their territorial dispute over Kashmir, Pakistan's alleged support for terrorist attacks in India and historical animosities emanating from the partition of the Indian subcontinent. Water disputes between both states, however, offer a potential catalyst for conflict. The Indus River system is the largest, contiguous irrigation system in the world with a command area of 20 million hectares and an annual irrigation capacity of over 12 million hectares. The headwater of the basin is in India.

Although the Indus Water Treaty of 1960 has tempered disputes between India and Pakistan over the river system, it has failed to resolve their long-standing dispute over the Wular Barrage. Since 1985, Pakistan has objected to India's Tubul Navigation Project on the River Jhelum. Pakistan claims that India has violated Article I (11) of the Indus Waters Treaty, which prohibits both parties from undertaking any "man-made obstruction" that may cause "change in the volume of the daily flow of waters" and Article III (4) which bars India from "storing any water of, or construct any storage works on, the Western Rivers."

Furthermore, Pakistan regards India's control of the River Jhelum as a threat to its security should India decide to withhold the water. The Indus Waters Commission has failed to resolve the issue and it has been on the agenda of the Indo-Pak talks at Lahore in February 1999, the Agra Summit of July 2001, and part of the Composite Dialogue initiated in January 2004.

Meanwhile, on its eastern borders, India is also engaged in several water disputes with Nepal, Bangladesh and China. The Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna region comprises the catchment areas of three major river systems that flow through India, Nepal, Bhutan, China and Bangladesh. This system is second only to the Amazon with an annual discharge of 1,350 billion cubic meters and a total drainage area of 1.75 million square kilometers. With a population of over 600 million people living in the region, which is growing at an annual rate of two percent, there is considerable pressure on the region's resources.

The Mahakali River flows along the Nepal-India western border. The river was fixed as the western boundary between Nepal and British India in 1816. Nepal's rivers have the potential to generate 83,000 MW of electricity through hydropower generation, most of which could be exported to India to meet its growing energy needs -- northern India currently faces a power deficit of 9,500 MW, which is expected to rise to 20,000 MW by 2010. Although both states have reached numerous water resource development agreements, Indo-Nepali cooperation on the river systems has been slow.

Tensions grew following India's construction of the Tanakpur Barrage on the Mahakali River in 1998. This was based on a memorandum of understanding that was signed between both states in 1991 and renegotiated as the "Integrated Development of the Mahakali River including Sarada Barrage, Tanakpur Barrage and Pancheswar Project" in 1996. The ratification of the treaty has not only soured relations between India and Nepal but also enflamed internal Nepalese politics as the Nepali Congress and United Marxist Leninist party have accused each other of selling out Nepal's interests under foreign pressure. Discussions have raged over the interpretation of the treaty, the presence of Indian troops in disputed upstream territory, the issue of water rights, the selling price of electricity, the environmental impact of the infrastructure project and the displacement of as many as 65,000 people as a result of the project.

Water-related tensions in South Asia, however, are greatest between India and Bangladesh. Tensions between Bangladesh and India emanate from the disputed status of their border, illegal migration and Bangladesh's alleged support for militant groups operating in India's northeast, coupled with rising Islamic fundamentalist sentiment in Bangladesh under the Bangladesh National Party (B.N.P.)-led government. These tensions have even led to skirmishes between India's Border Security Force and the Bangladesh Rifles, as occurred most recently on Bangladesh's border with Assam in August.

Water disputes are likely to enflame these tensions given that 54 rivers flow from India into Bangladesh. Although the Joint Rivers Commission was established in 1972 as the facilitating body to resolve trans-boundary water disputes between both states, which was complemented by the Ganges Water Agreement in 1977, several water-related disagreements continue to exist between both states.

First, both states have accused each other of causing the erosion of riverbanks that mark the 180 kilometers (112 miles) of international boundary between both states as a result of constructing concrete embankments. Second, Bangladesh has accused India of reducing water flow along the River Ganges, known as Padma in Bangladesh, as a result of India's construction of the Farakka Barrage across the Ganges in 1970. Dhaka has also accused Delhi of being slow in sharing data regarding river flows for flood control purposes. Bangladesh has also opposed India's plans for a $15 billion project to link rivers across the country in order to provide excess water in the north to water-deficient states in the south, which Bangladesh claims will affect river flow through the Brahmaputra and Ganges rivers systems into Bangladesh.

Tensions have been further fueled by Bangladeshi political parties using water-related tensions with India to gain electoral support, with the B.N.P. using the issue of water to discredit the opposition Awami League, which signed several treaties with India when it was the ruling party. Finally, both states have differed in their approach toward addressing water disputes, with India favoring a bilateral approach while Bangladesh has favored a multilateral approach. This was illustrated at the recent conference on "Trans-boundary Water Issues: South Asian Cooperation" organized by the International Farakka Committee (I.F.C.), where Bangladesh proposed a basin-wide approach to addressing water disputes through the creation of a Ganges River Commission or Brahmaputra River Authority involving Bangladesh, India, China, Nepal and Bhutan.

There are concerns over China's diversion of rivers from Tibet to South Asia, such as the Indus, Sutlej, and the Brahmaputra, which are critical to Bangladesh, India, Myanmar and Pakistan. India has accused China of being slow in sharing information on the status of the rivers in the run up to landslides, which have caused flooding in northeastern India and Bangladesh. Beijing's construction of a barrage along the Sutlej/Langqen Tsangbo and dams along the Brahmaputra/Sang Po has also concerned Delhi, as it will allow Beijing to control and regulate the flow of water into India. The lack of any formal water-sharing agreement between Delhi and Beijing due to their disputed borders has contributed to Sino-Indian tensions over water.

Sino-Indian relations have shown significant improvement in recent years fueled by their burgeoning trade relationship, direct transport links, and China's recognition of Sikkim as Indian territory as a quid pro quo for India's recognition of Tibet as Chinese territory.

Nonetheless, both states' rapid growth rates and rising middle classes have translated into a growing global competition for resources, most notably oil and gas but also water. Water disputes coupled with suspicions emanating from India's improving relationship with the United States, China's long-standing relationship with Pakistan, and both states' quest for regional and global prominence threaten to sour any rapprochement between Asia's two rising powers.
 
holy cow,

water wars are about to get real . all these nations ( sans BD and Nepal ) have nuclear weapons, and a frightening large array of PGMs, cruise missiles and Theater ballistic missiles( pakistan ) .


dambusters 2.0 coming back again ?
 

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