Pakistan Elections 2013 Predictions

[Bratva]

It could be your desperate wish, but not reality. And after following SS Performance my and my baradaris vote is for PML-N.

Any how little did change since 2012, so it will be good to share some updates... 2013 elections mainly covers 3-4 majority teams..

1) PPP, PML-Q (Doubtful), ANP, and MQM (Doubtful).
2) PML-N, PPPP Jamiat, JUI-F, PML-F, Awami National Party, and some independent candidates
3) APML, PML, TAP, PML-Q (Doubtfule), MQM (Doubtful)

Elections are pretty close yet PTI position is doubtful. They might join Group 3, or don't join anyone and create Group 4. From where I see, PML-N changes are brighter then others right now. Group 3 may be give some threat incase of PTI joining, otherwise Group 4 and Group 3 (establishment votes) will be divided into these two groups.. so less threat.

PPP do worked alot on the repo while giving Free Jobs, work in interior sindh etc, but their situation can become unstable if PML-Q and MQM leaves Group 1. But this will also hurt position of Group 3.

What ever, elections are still mess... and don't see anyone wining with clear majority..

Based on SS performance, why are you voting them on national level? It is great if you and your baradari vote them on provincial level but voting a friendly opposition on National nevel... It's criminal negligence on your part.

 

[Fracker]

Based on SS performance, why are you voting them on national level? It is great if you and your baradari vote them on provincial level but voting a friendly opposition on National nevel... It's criminal negligence on your part.

Even if you follow IK, you should understand that, if they would have been kicked out in the middle of their tenor they would have become "Shaheed". And 2ndly friendly opposition maters, they (PML-N) opposed what was against Pakistan and Pakistani interests, be it NATO Supply Line, Be it ramand devis case, Be it doing ralies for power crisis, Long March against Government for SC restoration, and so o on.. And accepted what ever was good for Pakistan and Pakistanis, which is how democratic opposition should behave.. If you call it friendly opposition then, you have no idea about democracy. You should stop supporting PTI (who want change from democratic way), and follow some revolutionist Party

 

[RiazHaq]

 

[batmannow]

Even if you follow IK, you should understand that, if they would have been kicked out in the middle of their tenor they would have become "Shaheed". And 2ndly friendly opposition maters, they (PML-N) opposed what was against Pakistan and Pakistani interests, be it NATO Supply Line, Be it ramand devis case, Be it doing ralies for power crisis, Long March against Government for SC restoration, and so o on.. And accepted what ever was good for Pakistan and Pakistanis, which is how democratic opposition should behave.. If you call it friendly opposition then, you have no idea about democracy. You should stop supporting PTI (who want change from democratic way), and follow some revolutionist Party

muk-muka company starts with formula called siyasi shaheed!

 

[batmannow]

 

[Fracker]

muk-muka company starts with formula called siyasi shaheed!

This is example of losing comprehension, what I am writing and what I am getting reply...

batmannow, sorry man, you lost your head... nothing personal..

 

[jupiter2007]

Based on SS performance, why are you voting them on national level? It is great if you and your baradari vote them on provincial level but voting a friendly opposition on National nevel... It's criminal negligence on your part.

PML-N can win between 25-28 seats in NA, not more than that. Also, PTI can't sweep it has to form alliance with another party, it could be PML-N or PML-Q.

 

[RiazHaq]

Here's a Dawn newspaper poll story:

Pakistani voters appear divided on many questions of the day – including who to vote for in the upcoming elections and what issues are most critical for the country at present – according to the Political Barometer, an opinion survey conducted by the Herald in partnership with the Sustainable Development Policy Institue (SDPI), an Islamabad-based think-tank.

Of those respondents who say they have registered for the upcoming elections, 29 per cent expressed an intention to vote for the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP). 24.7 per cent pledged support for the Pakistan Muslim League–Nawaz (PMLN) while 20.3 per cent indicated a preference for the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI).

The survey’s findings indicate that the PTI’s support is derived from all age groups – 22.9 per cent of those between 18 to 35 years, 18.6 per cent of those between 36 to 50 years, 18.4 per cent of those between 51 to 70 years and 7.7 of those above 70 years support the PTI, dispelling the notion that its vote bank is rooted in the younger generation.

The highest proportion of those aged between 36 to 50 years (32.5 per cent) indicate a preference for the PPP. Similarly, 46.2 per cent of those aged over 70 expressed a preference for the PMLN.

Compared with respondents’ voting histories, the PMLN’s vote bank appears to have remained stagnant while the PPP’s seems to have declined significantly.

It appears that the PTI has a stronger urban base, while a higher proportion of rural respondents indicated that they would vote for either the PPP or the PMLN in the upcoming elections

Predictably, the highest level of support for the ruling party was pledged by Sindhis, 55 per cent of whom said that they would vote for the PPP in the impending elections.

This was followed by Seraiki-speakers at 46 per cent.

Forty-four per cent of Hindko-speakers said that they intended to vote for the PMLN, closely followed by Punjabis at 43 per cent.

The same proportion of Hindko-speakers – 44 per cent – also expressed an intention to vote for the PTI, indicating a close contest between the two parties (PMLN and PTI) within that particular demographic.

It is worth noting that while 34 per cent of Pakhtuns stated that they would vote for PTI, only 11 per cent expressed the same vis a vis the Awami National Party (ANP).

47 per cent of Baloch said that they would vote for the Balochistan National Party–Mengal.

On average, approximately a third of those earning up to 30,000 rupees each month indicated a preference for the PPP whereas, among those earning more than 30,000 rupees, support for the party dropped to 10.8 percent.

This is in keeping with the party’s traditional pro-poor image.

No such trend could be determined for the PMLN, whose level of support remained similar across all income levels.

Those earning in excess of 250,000 rupees each month (the highest identified income bracket in the survey) expressed the maximum intention to vote for either the Muttahida Quami Movement (MQM) or the PTI, at 33 per cent each.

While this figure may appear anomalistic in the MQM’s case – support for the party within the second highest income bracket (those earning between 100,000 and 250,000 rupees each month) was only four per cent – it was possible to identify a rough direct trend between level of income and support for the PTI.

In general, it appeared that support for smaller parties declined with increasing levels of income.....

Elections 2013: survey indicates close contest | Newspaper | DAWN.COM

 

[RiazHaq]

Would demand by Imran Khan and Tahir-ul-Qadri to change election commission now derail general elections in Pakistan? Why has Imran Khan objected to Asma Jahangir's possible nomination as caretaker prime minister? What does the latest IRI poll say about the battle for Punjab vote? Is ANP in trouble in KPK with PTI leading the polls there? Watch the show to find out!!!

 

[batmannow]

This is example of losing comprehension, what I am writing and what I am getting reply...

batmannow, sorry man, you lost your head... nothing personal..

Yeh, I & masses of pakistan did lost their heads cause they hve been traped by politics of reconciliation of PMLn & PPP which strats with no intruption of each others rullings even both do crouption & worst governence in their respected rulling zones?
All this strated with fake & manupliated slogan of not making eachother a sayasi shahed?
Thus both of them are the beneficiaries?
Just deney this, & make my head straight?lol lol lol

 

[Chak Bamu]

IK has said today that they would not be making alliance with any party. I guess he saw the second tier JI leadership today at the inauguration of Metro Bus project.

Seems like PTI and IK are going to be in opposition for the next five years with perhaps a coalition government in KPK. As an outsider, IK has talked badly about all the political parties who contested elections in 2008. He should have shown better sense and stopped criticising all the others. IK said that he was against all the parties that contested election in 2008. His stand was principled, but a smart politician knows to ditch a principle when it becomes a liability. Now PTI stands alone. Good principles and bad politics. If a politician is not flexible, then he or she invariably fails and gets consigned to the margins. In politics you never make permanent enemies or friends.

I am still voting for PTI, and I hope all the people who made their minds to vote PTI stay committed. But the writing is on the wall now. PTI will be in opposition for next 5 years.

NS has just recently made overtures to Balochistan National Party by praising the performance of Akhtar Mengal. Smart move. I foresee PML-N forming the next Punjab Government. Balochistan government would likely be a coalition government with PML-N sharing with two or three other parties. The center may be up for grabs, but if there is an alliance of PML-N, JI, JUI-F, PML-Functional, and regional parties from Balochistan and Sindh, then PML-N has a fair shot of forming a government in Center.

But no matter however you may look at it, the opposition would be very strong. It would be a major test of political finesse to keep the government in center and complete five years. It is parliamentary democracy after all.

By the time 2018 rolls around, I hope IK and PTI would have learned their lesson. I hope they form a government then. But let us see...

 

[RiazHaq]

Here's an ET story on a German poll results in Pakistan:

ISLAMABAD: A survey done by a German company has said that the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) will continue to lead at the ballot box at the next elections.

The survey by Heinrich Boll Stiftung showed that 29 per cent of the people surveyed would support the PPP, the highest number for any political party surveyed by the company.

Nearly 25 per cent said they would support the main opposition party, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), led by former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif.

Another 20 per cent supported the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) led by former cricketer Imran Khan.

Citing strong polling figures for the PTI, the survey also noted that the post election government would have to stand up to a strong political opposition.

In the 2008 elections that were boycotted by the Pakistan-Tehreek-I-Insaf (PTI) under the leadership of Imran Khan, the PPP won 30.8 per cent of votes, while the PML-N came second with 23.1 per cent.

This survey is in sharp contrast with the last IRI survey that was done on 4,997 people, 32 per cent of whom preferred the PML-N as preferred majority party in the federal parliament.

This figure was up from 28 per cent from the last survey that the agency conducted over two months in July and August last year.

PPP to lead in the polls: Survey – The Express Tribune

 

[My-Analogous]

no one get majority and I think we should give PTI and chance because PPP give us fail govt. and Nawaz sharif is Anti Karachi mode and a true leader don't choose area liked and area to be side wall and last 2 times Nawaz didn't make any developments other then Lahore and mind you Lahore is not a Pakistan and he have to think more then Lahore. Even now all development is in mainly in Lahore and they forget other part of Punjab and ratio of development is 70 (Lahore): 30 (rest of Punjab). This is very bad for a National figure leader. Let see what PTI will do. I didn't vote till now and waiting for a true leader who is not a Punjabi nor Sindhi or Baluchi. I don't want a leader who is Pathan or urdu speaking or any one. I want a leader who is good Muslim and a Pakistan like i am. I believe a good Muslim who know that he is answerable to Allah will be definitely a good leader. less corruption, faithful, royal to the people. I pray to Allah that he will guide us and show us a true leader

 

[jupiter2007]

Here is the prediction for Pakistan elections 2013.

What is going to happpend to all these looootas?

 

[A.Rafay]

Im with Pti! Imran khan should win!