The US is bombing Syria to destroy ISIS. Here's why that won't work.

[kalu_miah]

The US is bombing Syria to destroy ISIS. Here's why that won't work. - Vox

The US is bombing Syria to destroy ISIS. Here's why that won't work.
Updated by Zack Beauchamp on September 22, 2014, 11:31 p.m. ET

Late Monday night, American warplanes began bombing about 20 Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) targets. It's a key part of President Obama's strategy for destroying ISIS: weaken ISIS in Syria before more moderate Syrian rebels try to retake the territory it holds on the ground.

There's just one little problem with this strategy: it's not likely to work. The above video explains why, in about two minutes. There are two main points.

1. America has no reliable allies in Syria

ISIS, as you can see from that map, has a lot of strongholds in cities and towns. Airpower alone can't dislodge the group from territory it firmly controls, because there's no way to keep ISIS from just hiding and coming back when the bombs start dropping. So Obama's strategy depends on local allies to hold on to the territory ISIS controls.

Since the US can't trust either murderous dictator Bashar al-Assad or Syria's al-Qaeda branch, its plan is to rely on moderate, anti-Assad Syrian rebels. The problem is that these groups haven't shown an ability to defeat ISIS on the battlefield reliably, and the US can't train and arm enough of them to make up for ISIS's strength. Nor is it clear that the moderate rebels are moderate or cohesive enough to form a real anti-ISIS force.

2. The US can't solve Sunni-Shia strife in Iraq

ISIS isn't just in Syria: they also hold big chunks of northern and western Iraq. ISIS, a Sunni Islamist organization, draws a level of popular support and recruits from Sunni discontent with the Shia majority's way of running the Iraqi state. Especially since the Shia government brutally repressed a Sunni protest movement in 2013, ISIS and other Iraqi rebel groups have gained ground among Sunnis.

So long as Sunnis hate the Iraqi government more than they mistrust ISIS, the US will have trouble driving ISIS from its Iraqi and Syrian strongholds. Sunni popular support means that ISIS will be able to hide amongst the populace, which will make it very hard for the Iraqi government to find and root out ISIS troops even with US air support. And if ISIS is strong in Iraq, it will be hard to root it out in Syria — and vice versa.

Oh, and one more thing: since 9/11, the US has failed to destroy a major jihadist group like ISIS. And ISIS is one of the strongest such groups the world has ever seen.

Credits:
Produced by Joe Posner, Joss Fong & Alex Hawley
Photos courtesy Getty Images

 

[-SINAN-]

I can explain much more briefly.

It didn't work in Afganistan even with the boots on the ground and it surely won't work on ISIS either.

 

[PlanetWarrior]

This an area is a global mess and a global headache. The USA seems to be impotent against this ISIS threat

 

[iPhone]

Did the drone campaign work against the talibs in the North Waziristan? 2009-2011 saw heavy drone strikes at an average of 2 a day.

What did that accomplish? In the end Pakistan Army had to go in themselves and clean it up.

So, in a nutshell, Syrian and Iraqi people themselves have to fix this without outside involvement.

 

[1000]

I can explain much more briefly.

It didn't work in Afganistan even with the boots on the ground and it surely won't work on ISIS either.

The US knows they will not be able to destroy ISIS with airpower, their goal with the use of airpower is to turn the high level insurgency to low level/intensity insurgency. This worked in Afghanistan as well, now the Taliban is mainly in mountains and not visible in cities. The airstrikes will enable them to destroy the command & control and other HQ's of ISIS in Al Raqqa, severely weaken them and force them to turn back to low level insurgency as they have been doing in Iraq Pre 2014. From there local forces in Iraq and Syria are the ones who can take care of it if they do things the right way, it's up to the local gov from that point.

 

[Penguin]

Didn't ISIS capture a lot of (US supplied) Iraqi army equipment > expect most of that to get destroyed.

 

[zee Zenii]

can anyone tell me what is this?????

US-EX Head of Military and Former Pentagon Official revealed information regarding US operation inside Pakistan. He said that the "US troops were ready to launch operation in Pakistan but US forces not execute that operation plan because FEAR OF MASSIVE RETALIATION from Pakistan Military."

According to former pentagon official, "US Military requested to the ISI and Pakistan Military several times for help and support. Pakistan military threatened US forces with massive retaliation in response to any aggression against Pakistan. So US forces roll-back their plan after threatening response from Pakistan Military."

 

[-SINAN-]

The US knows they will not be able to destroy ISIS with airpower, their goal with the use of airpower is to turn the high level insurgency to low level/intensity insurgency. This worked in Afghanistan as well, now the Taliban is mainly in mountains and not visible in cities. The airstrikes will enable them to destroy the command & control and other HQ's of ISIS in Al Raqqa, severely weaken them and force them to turn back to low level insurgency as they have been doing in Iraq Pre 2014. From there local forces in Iraq and Syria are the ones who can take care of it if they do things the right way, it's up to the local gov from that point.

Not gonna work IMO....whose gonna clean Musul and Rakka ?

And I wanna add i laugh at these phares from CNN "ISIS's command and control buildings, traning facilities have been targetted."

WTH.....as if they are commanding like this.

They command with radios. And they train in open fields....

Everybody gonna nuts IMO....

Also Westeners keep pressuring Turkey to Attack ISIS (as if that would work)...I wanna ask why no western country asks Israel to take action against ISIS... ?

 

[kalu_miah]

@Sinan My feeling is that the US feels its getting too dangerous for the US protected regimes in the area, that is why they are acting to make sure those regimes don't fall under ISIS onslaught or with internal ISIS revolts in these countries. Turkey should stay out of this and let the US/West clean up the mess it has created since the breakup of Ottoman Empire.

Western protection has allowed these regimes to spread extremism globally using petrodollars. At times they used these extremists as geopolitical tools against adversaries, like in Afghanistan. It will be poetic justice if ISIS, a by product of this Western policy, could take down some or all of these Western allied regimes, with the help of supporters in these countries. Without the fall of these regimes, the cancer of extremism will continue. But the West is now getting into action to protect these regimes, so the status quo can be maintained and thus the source of extremism under Western protection will continue to remain intact.

It looks more like a man fighting its own shadow, the West fighting the by product of its own foreign policy and the world order it has created for its own benefit and global hegemony.

 

[sarthak]

Doesn't matter. As long as they keep spanking and killing 100-120 ISIS daily, it's good enough for everyone. This is more about revenge than anything else. The dumb ISIS thought they could strike fear by beheading 1-2 western hostages. On the contrary , they are getting spanked hard. Ever since US started airstrikes, more than 1000 ISIS have been exterminated

 

[1000]

Not gonna work IMO....whose gonna clean Musul and Rakka ?

And I wanna add i laugh at these phares from CNN "ISIS's command and control buildings, traning facilities have been targetted."

WTH.....as if they are commanding like this.
They command with radios. And they train in open fields....
Everybody gonna nuts IMO....

Also Westeners keep pressuring Turkey to Attack ISIS (as if that would work)...I wanna ask why no western country asks Israel to take action against ISIS... ?

Locals of Mosul, army and other volunteers should be able to combat ISIS in that city if the US takes care of the sky. Locals will fear US airstrikes on Mosul as well and have no choice but to fight ISIS, but this is a later stage.