Who will be Pakistan Army's Next chief?

[Xeric]

Trend Lines: WPR Blog | Global Insider: Pakistan's Chief of Army Staff

Who will be Pakistan Army's Next chief?

Global Insider: Pakistan's Chief of Army Staff

Kari Lipschutz | Bio | 04 Jun 2010

Late last month, Pakistan's Defense Minister Chaudhry Ahmed Mukhtar denied rumors that the government was planning to extend Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani's term as chief of army staff. In an e-mail interview, Hassan Abbas, Bernard Schwartz Fellow at the Asia Society and Quaid-i-Azam Professor at Columbia University, discusses the possible candidates for one of Pakistan's most powerful positions.

WPR: As Gen. Ashfaq Pervez Kayani's honorable retirement in November 2010 draws nearer, what are the prospects of his term as Pakistan's chief of army staff being extended?

Hassan Abbas: There have been credible rumors about a possible extension in service for Gen. Kayani, and indications are that the Obama administration is supportive of this possibility. The primary reasons for this support are to maintain the working relationship between the Pentagon and the Pakistani army's General Headquarters (GHQ) in Rawalpindi, which has improved in the last couple of years, and to maintain continuity of command in the midst of a major military campaign against terrorists and insurgents in the Pakistan-Afghan border region.

The political consequences of Kayani's extension cannot be ignored however. Kayani was director-general of the Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) during the Musharraf era, and he played a constructive role during Pakistan's transition to democracy in early 2008. He also played a conciliatory role during the judicial crisis in 2009. As a result, he is very powerful, and the Pakistani political leadership would probably like to deal with a new and less-influential army chief. More so, there is no precedent for such an extension during civilian rule.

Recently, there were media reports in Pakistan suggesting that senior army commanders want an extension for Kayani. If so, then political leaders of Pakistan are unlikely to oppose such a "consensus" between "the army and America" -- widely perceived to be the two most important players in Pakistan.

WPR: If Kayani does retire as planned, who are the possible successors?

Abbas: According to the country's constitution, the choice of the new army chief will be made by Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gillani. President Asif Zardari as the commander-in-chief and co-chairperson of the ruling Pakistan People' Party (PPP) will also significantly influence this decision. Under ordinary circumstances, one of the following generals is likely to be designated as the new army chief:

1. Lt. Gen. Khalid Shamim Wayen, until recently corps commander in Quetta and now holding the very important position of chief of general staff at GHQ, is considered to be the favorite within military circles.

2. Lt. Gen. Muhammad Yusuf, currently corps commander in Bahawalpur XXXI Corps, may get the position if Wayen is appointed chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee (CJCSC), which is largely a ceremonial position in Pakistan and for which the incumbent will also be retiring in October 2010. Some analysts believe that Kayani may be appointed as CJCSC, with the role of this office enhanced and expanded. This is possible, but unlikely.

3. Among junior contenders, Lt. Gens. Nadeem Taj and Jamil Haider are noteworthy.

WPR: What impact will the transition have on the U.S.-Pakistani security and political relationship?

Abbas: Pakistan's army is undisputedly the most powerful institution in the country, though its capabilities and cohesion are being challenged like never before. None of the top-most contenders for the position of army chief are known for harboring any extremist views, and U.S.-Pakistan army relations are institutional in nature. The U.S. should avoid influencing the choice of a new army chief as well as voicing its opinion about Kayani's possible extension, as that will complicate the situation both for Pakistan's political leadership and for U.S. interests in South Asia.

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Like i said earlier, Gen Wayen is still the most (logically) favoured, the emphasis is on logic.

 

[Raza88]

chances of Lt. Gen. Nadeem Taj becoming chief are very remote because the usa views him suspiciously and they wanted him removed from his postion of chief of the ISI during Musharraf's tenure
Nadeem Taj - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[Abu Zolfiqar]

you will be


and TaimiKhan will be CJCSC


Hassan Abbas is an interesting fellow. He teaches @ Columbia Univ. in NYC; he runs that blog ''Watan Dost''








p.s. Lt.Gen. N Taj is out of the question. He's had a fantastic career, served this country well. But for political reasons (internal/external) I don't think he would be promoted to that position

 

[Abu Zolfiqar]

General Kiyani’s Imminent Scheduled Honorable Retirement​

--Ikram Sehgal

At my recent talk at the Atlantic Council in Washington DC about the successful counterinsurgency operations by the Pakistani army, renowned defence analyst Stephen Cohen posed a loaded question: whether Gen Ashfaq Parvez Kayani should get an “extension” when his tenure as COAS expires. My answer was no, that in order to make the Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee the effective institution it was designed to be when it first came into existence in 1975, Gen Kayani should instead head a reformed JCSC.
On extensions my opinion is that once promoted to lieutenant general a three-star must complete his tenure of four years of service (age should not become a bar). But if he has completed his four years of service an extension can be given in extraordinary circumstances. Extension of service for a COAS is an entirely different matter. Primarily, it sets off a chain reaction which ends in promotions in the army being blocked. However loyal and sincere the senior military hierarchy, potential aspirants will feel deprived of their turn at attaining the top slot. Really good prospects down the line will find their careers and ambitions sidelined. All those presently in contention for the COAS job have good professional careers, and for the most part are not tainted by real-estate scandals. “Extension” will mean these officers will retire from service in the next 12-18 months. An extension to the COAS will put a monkey wrench into a natural process.

Promotions during the Kayani incumbency have been deserving ones, and crucial slots (the right man for the right job) have mostly been filled on merit. There will always be a perception of nepotism and favouritism, normal for any organisation or corporate entity. The boss will always tend to prefer those he considers close to him. Rightly or wrongly, a feeling will still prevail that, merit notwithstanding, crucial posts will go to favourites rather than to the man best suited to the job.

The JCSC must become an effective military instrument. Today`s warfare cannot be fought service by service, it has to be a combined, all-service affair. Not a single military analyst believes otherwise, so why is practice different from theory? The present Army-PAF cooperation during counterinsurgency operations has been superb, for while both chiefs are to be commended. Something routine had to depend upon the personal chemistry of the two leaders! This is unacceptable for a modern military machine, the combined potential on which the existence of our nation is dependant.

The JCSC should be the central HQ for all three services, formulating overall war plans incorporating their combined fighting potential, and the mechanism for implementing the war plans. Things basic to the three services must be unified. Some of it is already being done–e.g., medical and engineering services. Why not entities that are common, basic training institutions, workshops, etc.? Specifics cannot be addressed in a short article, but what about standardisation of small arms, vehicles, the myriad types of which defy adequate description? The present incumbent can spend usefully the 150 days he has left by conducting an exercise on how the JCSC can be made effective.

Constructive reforms should include: (1) the JCSC becoming the GHQ for all three services, and the army`s headquarters, the “Army HQ”; (2) the chairman of the JCSC (rename him “Chief of Defence Services,” or something similar) presiding over the senior promotions, from one star to two stars and from two stars to three stars in all three services; (3) all postings of three stars taking place with the concurrence of the GHQ; (4) creation of a Joint Operations Chief (JOC), or any such nomenclature, in the GHQ; (5) all military procurement under the GHQ`s aegis; (6) the ISI and the ISPR reporting to the GHQ, etc.

We need services integration, and we need it now. Being 36 years out of date, current and better military minds than mine can work out the modalities of making the JCSC effective. One does not grudge them their task of taking apart and putting out to pasture a 19th-century military mindset having no place in the 21st century, and certainly not after World War II.

Ashfaq Parvez Kayani has remade the Pakistani army in many ways more than one: restoring the esteem that in which the army was held by the citizens of the country, and restoring the morale and self-confidence of its rank and file; recalling several hundred army officers “on deputation” in civil services where they had no reason to be; the military`s intelligence services not being allowed to interfere in the 2008 elections.

This set the stage for the army to get out of politics. He oversaw a peaceful transition (with dignity) of Gen Musharraf out of the office of president (and with some difficulty out of the Army House), and stayed neutral in the subsequent process of the election of the new president.

Kayani has focused on soldiers` welfare and a return to professionalism. Counterinsurgency training was carried out indigenously before soldiers were taken into battle. A peacetime outfit was converted into an effective military machine. Observers far and wide have been amazed by the effectiveness of the subsequent counterinsurgency campaign.

Our young men in uniform laid down their lives in Swat and South Waziristan. Their Shahadats amounted to something great. Kayani gently nudged the government into restoring the superior judiciary in the face of the “long march.” Kayani`s many successes have not gone to his head. Instead of developing “Napoleonic” tendencies, he remains committed to democracy, even a multi-flawed, inherently corrupt one like ours. His will be a difficult act to follow.

There are many more reasons for Kayani not getting an extension. To quote Air Vice Marshal (r) Shahzad Chaudhry, “losing him would be a blow to the continuity of a transition in the nation`s institutional rebuilding, while extending his present position will likely not go down well with others in the army waiting to have their chance.”

With the universal confidence reposed in Kayani, he can supervise the process of making the JCSC reforms effective. Without this, Kayani should opt to retire gracefully, putting the considerable strength of his popularity in ensuring that the best man for the job is selected as the new COAS.






Mr. Ikram Sehgal is Publisher and Managing Editor of Defence Journal (Pakistan).

General Kiyani?s imminent scheduled honorable retirement | Pakistan Daily

 

[TaimiKhan]

you will be

and TaimiKhan will be CJCSC

Hassan Abbas is an interesting fellow. He teaches @ Columbia Univ. in NYC; he runs that blog ''Watan Dost''

p.s. Lt.Gen. N Taj is out of the question. He's had a fantastic career, served this country well. But for political reasons (internal/external) I don't think he would be promoted to that position

thank you sir ji, but xeric being senior should have the CJCSC seat, am very much ok with COAS

 

[Machoman]

In these days anything is possible so I like to try myself.

 

[Xeric]

thank you sir ji, but xeric being senior should have the CJCSC seat, am very much ok with COAS

Atleast i would have the opportunity to grace almost all of the occasions as the chief guest.

 

[Abu Zolfiqar]

thank you sir ji, but xeric being senior should have the CJCSC seat, am very much ok with COAS

you're more of an all-rounder though. Especially in AF related matters.

I wasnt sure who was more senior though, you gentlemen can work it out on your own terms

give me VIP access to PAF base Peshawar and i'll be most content

 

[mikkix]

Trend Lines: WPR Blog | Global Insider: Pakistan's Chief of Army Staff

Who will be Pakistan Army's Next chief?

Global Insider: Pakistan's Chief of Army Staff

Kari Lipschutz | Bio | 04 Jun 2010

Late last month, Pakistan's Defense Minister Chaudhry Ahmed Mukhtar denied rumors that the government was planning to extend Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani's term as chief of army staff. In an e-mail interview, Hassan Abbas, Bernard Schwartz Fellow at the Asia Society and Quaid-i-Azam Professor at Columbia University, discusses the possible candidates for one of Pakistan's most powerful positions.

WPR: As Gen. Ashfaq Pervez Kayani's honorable retirement in November 2010 draws nearer, what are the prospects of his term as Pakistan's chief of army staff being extended?

Hassan Abbas: There have been credible rumors about a possible extension in service for Gen. Kayani, and indications are that the Obama administration is supportive of this possibility. The primary reasons for this support are to maintain the working relationship between the Pentagon and the Pakistani army's General Headquarters (GHQ) in Rawalpindi, which has improved in the last couple of years, and to maintain continuity of command in the midst of a major military campaign against terrorists and insurgents in the Pakistan-Afghan border region.

The political consequences of Kayani's extension cannot be ignored however. Kayani was director-general of the Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) during the Musharraf era, and he played a constructive role during Pakistan's transition to democracy in early 2008. He also played a conciliatory role during the judicial crisis in 2009. As a result, he is very powerful, and the Pakistani political leadership would probably like to deal with a new and less-influential army chief. More so, there is no precedent for such an extension during civilian rule.

Recently, there were media reports in Pakistan suggesting that senior army commanders want an extension for Kayani. If so, then political leaders of Pakistan are unlikely to oppose such a "consensus" between "the army and America" -- widely perceived to be the two most important players in Pakistan.

WPR: If Kayani does retire as planned, who are the possible successors?

Abbas: According to the country's constitution, the choice of the new army chief will be made by Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gillani. President Asif Zardari as the commander-in-chief and co-chairperson of the ruling Pakistan People' Party (PPP) will also significantly influence this decision. Under ordinary circumstances, one of the following generals is likely to be designated as the new army chief:

1. Lt. Gen. Khalid Shamim Wayen, until recently corps commander in Quetta and now holding the very important position of chief of general staff at GHQ, is considered to be the favorite within military circles.

2. Lt. Gen. Muhammad Yusuf, currently corps commander in Bahawalpur XXXI Corps, may get the position if Wayen is appointed chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee (CJCSC), which is largely a ceremonial position in Pakistan and for which the incumbent will also be retiring in October 2010. Some analysts believe that Kayani may be appointed as CJCSC, with the role of this office enhanced and expanded. This is possible, but unlikely.

3. Among junior contenders, Lt. Gens. Nadeem Taj and Jamil Haider are noteworthy.

WPR: What impact will the transition have on the U.S.-Pakistani security and political relationship?

Abbas: Pakistan's army is undisputedly the most powerful institution in the country, though its capabilities and cohesion are being challenged like never before. None of the top-most contenders for the position of army chief are known for harboring any extremist views, and U.S.-Pakistan army relations are institutional in nature. The U.S. should avoid influencing the choice of a new army chief as well as voicing its opinion about Kayani's possible extension, as that will complicate the situation both for Pakistan's political leadership and for U.S. interests in South Asia.

------

Like i said earlier, Gen Wayen is still the most (logically) favoured, the emphasis is on logic.

My uncle is in army and he told me that Gr. nadeem Taj is already assigned for that position secretlyy.
Dont want to discuss yyyyyyy.....
Sooner or later he will get the position for sure...

 

[Kompromat]

Atleast i would have the opportunity to grace almost all of the occasions as the chief guest.

Please Promote me to DG ISI , i will burn all terrorists and their supporters around the globe to the ground.

 

[fatman17]

is the CGS name Wyne or Wayen?

 

[M8R]

is the CGS name Wyne or Wayen?

It's Wynne, sir.

 

[Comet]

When is this appointment scheduled?

 

[M8R]

When is this appointment scheduled?

Nov, 2010.

 

[Spring Onion]

p.s. Lt.Gen. N Taj is out of the question. He's had a fantastic career, served this country well. But for political reasons (internal/external) I don't think he would be promoted to that position

agreed with you. Another analyst says that Nadeem Taj though had a good career but he is not made for the post as he can be a good for clerical work (means in the office) but dont know much about strategy