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Pakistan Elections 2008 - An analysis
Yasser Latif Hamdani February 13, 2008
Beyond all the despair about rigged elections and other such very real fears, the positive side of it is that the 2008 elections if held freely and fairly and that is a big IF- can turn out to be a landmark in Pakistan's history not just for the importance Pakistan has today in world affairs butbecause the complete rout of theocratic politics it promises to bring forth. For the first time since the introduction of the "Islamic" constitution of 1973, these elections promise to be fought around an agenda that has to do more with democracy, social welfare and minorities rights- ideas that were central to the very creation of Pakistan in 1947. There are five parties that promise to dominate these elections. These parties are:
Pakistan People's Party
Pakistan Muslim League- Q
Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz
Awami National Party
Mutahidda Qaumi Movement
Out of these PPP, PML-Q and PML-N are parties that claim with varying degrees of truth to their claim to be national and federal parties. A curious alliance of the landed gentry, left-leaning city intellectual and to a certain extent secular-minded Pakistani nationalists, PPP's claim is the strongest as it has a significant electoral base in Sindh and Punjab with smaller but resilient pockets in NWFP and Balochistan. PPP has fielded 778 candidates in National and provincial assemblies of Pakistan.
PML-Q- which is the re-incarnation of the age-old Unionist Party- is a winner's club with some right wingers, land owners and industrialists along with a few progressives here and there backed by the establishment- has a strong base in Punjab but smaller yet significant support in the rest of the provinces. It has fielded close to 600 candidates in the National and provincial assemblies of Pakistan. PML-N is the party of the right-leaning city folk and some land lords with small but strong pockets of support in all four provinces but with a main support base in North Punjab. It has fielded close to 500 candidates for National and provincial assemblies of Pakistan.
What is encouraging however is that all three parties have put on their manifestoes a commitment to Jinnah's Pakistan- a federal and democratic state where minorities and women would have equal rights. PPP and PML-Q have concentrated at length on "Quaid-e-Azam's Pakistan" and his vision, which strangely enough is a first in our recent history- believe it or not. For the most part, Jinnah's vision of a secular Pakistan has been omitted from our election manifestoes in the past. While both these parties have not gone so far as to use the word "secular" which is considered a bad word by some in Pakistan, they have spoken of equal rights, impartiality and equal opportunity which is good enough. All three parties have committed themselves to a modern and forward looking polity committed to eradicating social distinctions and disparity by including the marginalized groups.
Pitted again these three mainstream parties are the two ethnic parties, ANP and MQM. Both parties are fiercely secular this time around. ANP, which has its roots in Khudai Khidmatgars, the Congress Party and to a certain extent the Azad Pakistan Party of left-leaning populist ex-Muslim Leaguers who had formed the NAP in the mid 1950s, has over the years become confined to the Pushtun ethnic constituency. With the mainstream parties now underscoring Jinnah's ideals of inclusive and pluralistic Pakistan, ANP, viewing itself as the heir of the raditions of Indian National Congress seems to be confident in finally using the word "secular" in its terminology, a word it had abandoned since its opportunistic Nizam-e-Mustafa alliance. The ANP has emerged as a regional and ethnic party committed to the federation of Pakistan which it feels should be inclusive and secular. None the less it is very clear about its role as a Pushtun-based party and has fielded only 142 candidates in the National and provincial assemblies predominantly in NWFP and pushtun dominated areas of Karachi and Balochistan.
MQM- the party of the Urdu-speaking descendants of the migrants from India in 1947, has in the past few years- tried to reinvent itself as a federal, secular and democratic party- an image that took a major setback with May 12 tragedy. In these elections it is seeking to show its humane face to the world. MQM is backing Musharraf to show the west that it is committed to fight Islamic extremism more than anyone else in Pakistan. MQM has also laid a claim to Jinnah's secular ideals- ironic given that MQM chief had denounced the creation of Pakistan a few years ago in New Delhi. It has fielded 330 odd candidates all over Pakistan in the National and Provincial assemblies.
Social policies
I am going to omit the two regional parties as I feel that they will be marginal players in national social and economic policy making:
A PPP Government: PPP will very strongly push forward a progressive and socially liberal agenda. It will take a stronger position on judges. A degree of land reforms would be on the cards. Stronger labor policies and socialist noise. Backed by the US and strong in war on terror. Good for minorities and women- largely democratic and moderately anti-establishment.
A PML (Q-League) Government: Enlightened moderation will be buzz word of this government. However, the prospects of real change will be marred or slowed down by its flirtations with the religious right. Ultimately progressive forces within the party will have to compromise with the right leaning forces. Will support the war on terror and the US. Moderately good for minorities and women. Pro-establishment.
A PPP-PML-N coalition Government: Social liberalism of the PPP will be checked by conservatism of the PML-N. Stronger stance on the Judges issue- possible restoration. Relations will be less cordial with the US. Soft on anti-terrorism. Good for minorities. Status quo for women. Anti-establishment.
A PPP-PML-Q coalition Government: This government will continue Musharraf government's policies but will make more progressive and secular noises than a stand alone PML government. Will be marred by infighting. The War on terrorism will continue and the government will be backed by the US. Good for minorities and women. Moderately Pro-establishment.
ECONOMY:
On the face of it, all three mainstream parties are committed to a free market economy and de-regulation. All three parties have committed themselves to industrialization, protection of agriculture and expansion of export base in Pakistan. However, only the PPP has made specific commitments (Ref: Part ii Pages 6-11 of the 2008 Manifesto):
Export-led development as the main engine of growth
Aggressive de-regulation
Plans to seek FDI in Export Manufacturing sector.
Emphasis on value addition to Primary sector products.
Development of Non-traditional Exports through market based incentives
Banks to encourage rural/agricultural lending
Surplus electric power through maximum use of indigenous water and hydrocarbon resources, conservation and effective pricing)
Microfinance to be extended fisheries, small farmers, peasants
Prudent Monetary policy to control inflation
Enhancement of competition in manufacturing and trade of essential goods to reduce inflation
Strengthening of the SECP to combat monopolies
Left leaning Labour policies and review of the Industrial Relations Ordinance
Public Works etc to generate employment.
This is generally a centre-left economic and political doctrine on the lines of the US' Democrat Party or the UK's New Labour. It will not be bad for business but will seek to appear as populist.
The four anticipated scenarios are as follows
A PPP Government: Continuation of de-regulation/de-nationalization trend with left focus. Although strongly feudal in so far as the top tier leadership is concerned, the PPP is a left leaning party with major voter base in the impoverished and lower middle classes. Therefore PPP's business policies will always have a strong labour component as well as an emphasis on manufacturing (secondary) sector instead of services (tertiary) sector. The PPP government will inherit however an energy crisis and food grain crisis which will force it to be more pragmatic in following its policies. The PPP will make noise for the judges but will probably end up compromising with the establishment. Musharraf will continue as President for the medium term and economic outlook will be stable in the near future. Good for investment/expansion.
A PML (Q-League) Government: Continuation of the policies of the Aziz government. The PML is a coalition of major business interests as well as land owners. The PML will not entertain the labour concerns to the extent PPP will and will be considerably friendlier to the Services (Tertiary) sector and one does not find any departure from the established conservative view of economics more in line with Milton Friedman's monetarist school. This the PML will do by instinct and not out of some ideological commitment. Instead it will continue to play the nationalist with some Islamic focus (to create new alliances with JUI-F) on the face of it without altering its standard pragmatic business policies. Status quo shall also prevail vis a vis the judges issue. Musharraf will obviously continue in the medium term. Good for investment/expansion.
A PPP-PML-N coalition Government: This government will seek to challenge President Musharraf and create further instability vis a vis the Economy. The Stock market and other indicators will probably go down in the medium term, and investors will wait and see the outcome of a power struggle. Bad for investment/expansion.
A PPP-PML-Q coalition Government: This government will continue Aziz government's economic policies policies. Musharraf will continue as president Good for Investment/expansion.
PREDICTION:
As things stand right now, free and fair elections should deliver the following results:
PPP: 100-135 seats in the National Assembly. Majority in Sindh. Third largest party in Punjab, NWFP and Balochistan.
PML-Q: 65- 95 seats in the National Assembly. Largest Party in Punjab. Largest or Second largest Party in Balochistan. Significant position in Sindh and NWFP.
PML-N: 35-70 seats in the National Assembly. Second Largest Party in Punjab. Third largest party in Sindh. Second largest party in NWFP.
ANP: 5-20 seats in the National Assembly. Majority Party in NWFP.
MQM: 10-25 seats in the National Assembly. Second largest party in Sindh.
Pakistan Elections 2008 - An analysis
Yasser Latif Hamdani February 13, 2008
Beyond all the despair about rigged elections and other such very real fears, the positive side of it is that the 2008 elections if held freely and fairly and that is a big IF- can turn out to be a landmark in Pakistan's history not just for the importance Pakistan has today in world affairs butbecause the complete rout of theocratic politics it promises to bring forth. For the first time since the introduction of the "Islamic" constitution of 1973, these elections promise to be fought around an agenda that has to do more with democracy, social welfare and minorities rights- ideas that were central to the very creation of Pakistan in 1947. There are five parties that promise to dominate these elections. These parties are:
Pakistan People's Party
Pakistan Muslim League- Q
Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz
Awami National Party
Mutahidda Qaumi Movement
Out of these PPP, PML-Q and PML-N are parties that claim with varying degrees of truth to their claim to be national and federal parties. A curious alliance of the landed gentry, left-leaning city intellectual and to a certain extent secular-minded Pakistani nationalists, PPP's claim is the strongest as it has a significant electoral base in Sindh and Punjab with smaller but resilient pockets in NWFP and Balochistan. PPP has fielded 778 candidates in National and provincial assemblies of Pakistan.
PML-Q- which is the re-incarnation of the age-old Unionist Party- is a winner's club with some right wingers, land owners and industrialists along with a few progressives here and there backed by the establishment- has a strong base in Punjab but smaller yet significant support in the rest of the provinces. It has fielded close to 600 candidates in the National and provincial assemblies of Pakistan. PML-N is the party of the right-leaning city folk and some land lords with small but strong pockets of support in all four provinces but with a main support base in North Punjab. It has fielded close to 500 candidates for National and provincial assemblies of Pakistan.
What is encouraging however is that all three parties have put on their manifestoes a commitment to Jinnah's Pakistan- a federal and democratic state where minorities and women would have equal rights. PPP and PML-Q have concentrated at length on "Quaid-e-Azam's Pakistan" and his vision, which strangely enough is a first in our recent history- believe it or not. For the most part, Jinnah's vision of a secular Pakistan has been omitted from our election manifestoes in the past. While both these parties have not gone so far as to use the word "secular" which is considered a bad word by some in Pakistan, they have spoken of equal rights, impartiality and equal opportunity which is good enough. All three parties have committed themselves to a modern and forward looking polity committed to eradicating social distinctions and disparity by including the marginalized groups.
Pitted again these three mainstream parties are the two ethnic parties, ANP and MQM. Both parties are fiercely secular this time around. ANP, which has its roots in Khudai Khidmatgars, the Congress Party and to a certain extent the Azad Pakistan Party of left-leaning populist ex-Muslim Leaguers who had formed the NAP in the mid 1950s, has over the years become confined to the Pushtun ethnic constituency. With the mainstream parties now underscoring Jinnah's ideals of inclusive and pluralistic Pakistan, ANP, viewing itself as the heir of the raditions of Indian National Congress seems to be confident in finally using the word "secular" in its terminology, a word it had abandoned since its opportunistic Nizam-e-Mustafa alliance. The ANP has emerged as a regional and ethnic party committed to the federation of Pakistan which it feels should be inclusive and secular. None the less it is very clear about its role as a Pushtun-based party and has fielded only 142 candidates in the National and provincial assemblies predominantly in NWFP and pushtun dominated areas of Karachi and Balochistan.
MQM- the party of the Urdu-speaking descendants of the migrants from India in 1947, has in the past few years- tried to reinvent itself as a federal, secular and democratic party- an image that took a major setback with May 12 tragedy. In these elections it is seeking to show its humane face to the world. MQM is backing Musharraf to show the west that it is committed to fight Islamic extremism more than anyone else in Pakistan. MQM has also laid a claim to Jinnah's secular ideals- ironic given that MQM chief had denounced the creation of Pakistan a few years ago in New Delhi. It has fielded 330 odd candidates all over Pakistan in the National and Provincial assemblies.
Social policies
I am going to omit the two regional parties as I feel that they will be marginal players in national social and economic policy making:
A PPP Government: PPP will very strongly push forward a progressive and socially liberal agenda. It will take a stronger position on judges. A degree of land reforms would be on the cards. Stronger labor policies and socialist noise. Backed by the US and strong in war on terror. Good for minorities and women- largely democratic and moderately anti-establishment.
A PML (Q-League) Government: Enlightened moderation will be buzz word of this government. However, the prospects of real change will be marred or slowed down by its flirtations with the religious right. Ultimately progressive forces within the party will have to compromise with the right leaning forces. Will support the war on terror and the US. Moderately good for minorities and women. Pro-establishment.
A PPP-PML-N coalition Government: Social liberalism of the PPP will be checked by conservatism of the PML-N. Stronger stance on the Judges issue- possible restoration. Relations will be less cordial with the US. Soft on anti-terrorism. Good for minorities. Status quo for women. Anti-establishment.
A PPP-PML-Q coalition Government: This government will continue Musharraf government's policies but will make more progressive and secular noises than a stand alone PML government. Will be marred by infighting. The War on terrorism will continue and the government will be backed by the US. Good for minorities and women. Moderately Pro-establishment.
ECONOMY:
On the face of it, all three mainstream parties are committed to a free market economy and de-regulation. All three parties have committed themselves to industrialization, protection of agriculture and expansion of export base in Pakistan. However, only the PPP has made specific commitments (Ref: Part ii Pages 6-11 of the 2008 Manifesto):
Export-led development as the main engine of growth
Aggressive de-regulation
Plans to seek FDI in Export Manufacturing sector.
Emphasis on value addition to Primary sector products.
Development of Non-traditional Exports through market based incentives
Banks to encourage rural/agricultural lending
Surplus electric power through maximum use of indigenous water and hydrocarbon resources, conservation and effective pricing)
Microfinance to be extended fisheries, small farmers, peasants
Prudent Monetary policy to control inflation
Enhancement of competition in manufacturing and trade of essential goods to reduce inflation
Strengthening of the SECP to combat monopolies
Left leaning Labour policies and review of the Industrial Relations Ordinance
Public Works etc to generate employment.
This is generally a centre-left economic and political doctrine on the lines of the US' Democrat Party or the UK's New Labour. It will not be bad for business but will seek to appear as populist.
The four anticipated scenarios are as follows
A PPP Government: Continuation of de-regulation/de-nationalization trend with left focus. Although strongly feudal in so far as the top tier leadership is concerned, the PPP is a left leaning party with major voter base in the impoverished and lower middle classes. Therefore PPP's business policies will always have a strong labour component as well as an emphasis on manufacturing (secondary) sector instead of services (tertiary) sector. The PPP government will inherit however an energy crisis and food grain crisis which will force it to be more pragmatic in following its policies. The PPP will make noise for the judges but will probably end up compromising with the establishment. Musharraf will continue as President for the medium term and economic outlook will be stable in the near future. Good for investment/expansion.
A PML (Q-League) Government: Continuation of the policies of the Aziz government. The PML is a coalition of major business interests as well as land owners. The PML will not entertain the labour concerns to the extent PPP will and will be considerably friendlier to the Services (Tertiary) sector and one does not find any departure from the established conservative view of economics more in line with Milton Friedman's monetarist school. This the PML will do by instinct and not out of some ideological commitment. Instead it will continue to play the nationalist with some Islamic focus (to create new alliances with JUI-F) on the face of it without altering its standard pragmatic business policies. Status quo shall also prevail vis a vis the judges issue. Musharraf will obviously continue in the medium term. Good for investment/expansion.
A PPP-PML-N coalition Government: This government will seek to challenge President Musharraf and create further instability vis a vis the Economy. The Stock market and other indicators will probably go down in the medium term, and investors will wait and see the outcome of a power struggle. Bad for investment/expansion.
A PPP-PML-Q coalition Government: This government will continue Aziz government's economic policies policies. Musharraf will continue as president Good for Investment/expansion.
PREDICTION:
As things stand right now, free and fair elections should deliver the following results:
PPP: 100-135 seats in the National Assembly. Majority in Sindh. Third largest party in Punjab, NWFP and Balochistan.
PML-Q: 65- 95 seats in the National Assembly. Largest Party in Punjab. Largest or Second largest Party in Balochistan. Significant position in Sindh and NWFP.
PML-N: 35-70 seats in the National Assembly. Second Largest Party in Punjab. Third largest party in Sindh. Second largest party in NWFP.
ANP: 5-20 seats in the National Assembly. Majority Party in NWFP.
MQM: 10-25 seats in the National Assembly. Second largest party in Sindh.
