Basis? Based on world largest navy. Based on the strait that is only 131km wide. Based on the world second largest military strength. Based on China having thousand over 300km to 1700km range precision pin point ballistic missile. If Iran can even mute US military with just few missile strike. You can imagine 100 times the amount from China. I am not BS, it can be worst than that.... A helicopter flight of thousands of PLA assault soldiers from mainland China to Taiwan after barrage of missile that wipe out Taiwan defense will take the most an hour to do it... 3 hours is in fact under estimate!
And dont tell me yout uncle sam or whatever BS allies going to help Taiwan. Ask Ukraine or Kurdish soldiers did any US soldiers landed to help them fight single Russia soldiers or Turkish soldiers when US promise them heaven or earth if war happened...
unfortunately that exist only in wet dreams.
here is Mosul, Northern Iraq
en.wikipedia.org
a city roughly 180 km² in size, in 2016 it took around 100.000 allied multinational troops as well as the might of US airpower in a very permissive environment against an estimated 5000 leftover ISIS troops inside the city.
it took almost a year ( 9 months +) for the allied troops to capture the whole city
here is Aleppo, Northwest Syria
en.wikipedia.org
a city roughly 190 km2 in size, it took 4 years for the Syrian army to catapult the rebels out.
the battle of Mosul and Aleppo, took months to years under a very permissive environment in which the attacking troops enjoy advantage in overwhelmingly superior numbers, supply, terrain , ability to maneuver as well as technology. the tech discrepancy between that of ISIS against that of US led multinational forces couldn't be much greater, the same applies to the Syrian army advantage in numbers and air support during the whole 4+ years in the battle to seize Aleppo.
if you think that missile barrage alone will guarantee your 3 hour road to victory, then think again, during the battle of Mosul, US drones, Iraqi missile and rocket launchers, French Caesar artillery didn't stop firing for most of the combat phase, yet it didn't took 3 hours to capture Mosul (an area of just 180km2),
it still took 9 months.
now let's talk Taiwan.
here's Taipei
a MEGACITY of around 1,140 km2 , now imagine sending your PLA troops here through the body of water called the Taiwan strait, you'll need all the ships you've got to transport at least 100.000+ of your troops ashore , that considers that your transports magically survives the missile onslaught and somewhat the Taiwanese didn't blow your military gathering site.
the tech discrepancy between that of Taiwan v PLA is not as dire as that of ISIS v USA or SAA vs FSA.
I might want to remind you that
during the entire battle to seize Mosul and Aleppo, the supply lines for the attacking troops are always open, which means steady supply of fresh men, ammunition, food etc.
the same could not be assured for your PLA men if they manage to land in Taiwan under a vicious firefight, not knowing if your supply ships will be targeted by submarines or mobile missile launcher. if failed, then your PLA troops will be surrounded inside Taiwan, waiting for them to bleed men, ammo and food.
you could not even ensure air superiority if the US decide to intervene. which means it will be years before you could seize Taipei. and Taiwan has many cities the size of Taipei, with mountains on all sides. perfect for the defenders.
think twice before spewing 3 hours
. you are indeed in the same league and intelect with the guy who make this thread below.
Sometime between October 10 and October 22, the US will announce an adjustment in the One China Policy and upgrade its diplomatic relations with Taiwan to ambassador level. Within 24 hours, PLAAF will penetrate Taiwan airspace and commence an air war over Taiwan. The US will deploy at least one...
defence.pk
