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China overwhelmed in Taiwan war scenario: simulation

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TOKYO -- If Japan and the U.S. were to become involved in a conflict between China and Taiwan, they would be able to prevent Beijing's takeover of the island, but at a heavy cost to their military personnel and equipment, think tank simulations show.

A tabletop wargame conducted by Japan's Sasakawa Peace Foundation showed Japan losing as many as 144 fighter jets, with Self-Defense Forces casualties reaching up to 2,500. The U.S. could lose up to 400 jets with over 10,000 soldiers killed or wounded. But China would fail to seize control of the island.

The exercise imagined a cross-strait crisis in which China attempts an amphibious invasion of Taiwan in the year 2026. The simulation was conducted over four days through Jan. 21.

The roughly 30 participants included former Japan Self-Defense Force officers as well as academics and researchers from Japan and the U.S.

The war game pitted the Chinese against Japanese, U.S. and Taiwanese forces. The Chinese military established a command center for the Taiwan front capable of deploying all air, submarine and surface vessel capabilities. The U.S. military responded by sending nuclear-powered aircraft carriers and state-of-the-art fighter jets to areas in and around Taiwan.

In Japan, the prime minister declared a national state of emergency and agreed to allow the U.S. to use SDF bases as well as civilian airports in Okinawa and Kyushu.

In the event of a real Taiwan conflict, Japan could invoke the right to collective self defense and send personnel to team up with the U.S., even if Japan did not come under direct military attacks from China.

In the exercise, Japan designated the conflict as an "existential threat" after learning that China was planning to attack SDF bases being used by the U.S. military.

Maritime Self-Defense Force warships, along with the fleet of F-35 fighters in the Air Self-Defense Force, took part in missile attacks against Chinese forces.

China was eventually overwhelmed by the U.S.-Japan response, with the conflict ceasing in a little over two weeks. China's military supply was cut off, and the final blow came when the coalition took control of airspace over Taiwan.

All told, China lost 156 warships, including two carriers, along with 168 fighter jets and 48 military transport aircraft, according to the scenario. More than 40,000 soldiers were killed or wounded.

The takeaway was that although a Chinese military takeover of Taiwan was thwarted, it came at heavy human and material costs to the self-governed island, the U.S. and Japan.

Taiwan saw 13,000 soldiers dead and wounded in the conflict, including prisoners of war, and lost 18 warships and 200 warplanes. U.S. casualties added up to 10,700 people, with the loss of 19 ships and 400 warplanes.

The JSDF lost 15 vessels and 144 fighter jets, including F-35s and F-2s. Japanese bases were targeted by China, resulting 2,500 casualties among SDF personnel. Civilian casualties ranged from a few hundred people to more than 1,000.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank, also conducted a series of tabletop exercises last year that simulated a cross-strait conflict in 2026.

According to findings, released in January, China fails to successfully invade Taiwan in most of the 24 scenarios, but it comes at a substantial cost for Japan, as it loses over 100 warplanes and 26 warships in the base scenario.

Both the Sasakawa and CSIS exercises are premised on today's arsenals and capabilities in 2026, meaning an actual outcome in 2026 could be different if China significantly boosts its military power.

China is pursuing a rapid military buildup, and some experts say the military balance in the Western Pacific region will favor the country in 2025. In particular, China is racing to build up its arsenal of nuclear weapons.

The U.S. currently possesses 3,800 nuclear warheads to China's 350, according to last year's annual white paper by Japan's Ministry of Defense. On the other hand, China has 278 medium-range and intermediate-range ballistic missiles that can target Japan.

The U.S. does not possess those missiles because it is party to the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty.

"We must make every possible preparation for substantial losses while we still can," said Tsuneo Watanabe, senior security fellow at the Sasakawa Peace Foundation.

Furthermore, China is making advances in information warfare, space development and cyber warfare.

"In the exercise, China tried everything it could to avoid war with the U.S.," said Watanabe. "There's the risk China might try to unify with Taiwan without any physical military conflict."

 
To take out a Chinese invasion fleet; the General Atomics Long Range Maneuvering projectile. A Chinese version of this could also allow them to use cheaper artillery from the mainland instead of rockets.

125-150 Km range

 
Japanese or Americans wouldn't get involved directly in a conflict between China and Taiwan. It would be as we see with Ukraine indirect support which could be hard to do if china managed to blockade Taiwan.
 
To take out a Chinese invasion fleet; the General Atomics Long Range Maneuvering projectile. A Chinese version of this could also allow them to use cheaper artillery from the mainland instead of rockets.

125-150 Km range

As I mentioned before, this war (If this ever happened) is going to depends on who have more disposable aircraft.

Many people think this war is going to be decided with Chinese 5th Gen v US/JPN 5th Gen, but as my own wargame turns out, this war is largely depending on who have more F-16s, J-10s and Other legacy fighter rules the Skies, because at best, US and Chinese 5th gen cancelled each other out, then we will start venturing into Drone and Legacy fighter category. The problem is, China lead slightly ahead of drone, but lagging behind largely by 4th gen fighter they can muster. Which would be a problem because Fighter can kill drone, while the other way does not really works.

So what you have is around 600 Gen 4 Chinese fighter (J-10/J-11) against 1000-1200 Legacy US/JPN/ROC fighter (F-16, F-2, F-15C, F-15E, F-CK-1), those thing can drop bombs and do CAP and also do naval interdiction with Harpoon and whatever JASDF/ROCAF version of Harpoon). That is going to break the Chinese Fleet back in my own war game. That's why I can't venture off 250 nm from Chinese coast because outside that, my Carrier Aviation aren't really enough to protect me from all those threat,
 
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TOKYO -- If Japan and the U.S. were to become involved in a conflict between China and Taiwan, they would be able to prevent Beijing's takeover of the island, but at a heavy cost to their military personnel and equipment, think tank simulations show.

A tabletop wargame conducted by Japan's Sasakawa Peace Foundation showed Japan losing as many as 144 fighter jets, with Self-Defense Forces casualties reaching up to 2,500. The U.S. could lose up to 400 jets with over 10,000 soldiers killed or wounded. But China would fail to seize control of the island.

The exercise imagined a cross-strait crisis in which China attempts an amphibious invasion of Taiwan in the year 2026. The simulation was conducted over four days through Jan. 21.

The roughly 30 participants included former Japan Self-Defense Force officers as well as academics and researchers from Japan and the U.S.

The war game pitted the Chinese against Japanese, U.S. and Taiwanese forces. The Chinese military established a command center for the Taiwan front capable of deploying all air, submarine and surface vessel capabilities. The U.S. military responded by sending nuclear-powered aircraft carriers and state-of-the-art fighter jets to areas in and around Taiwan.

In Japan, the prime minister declared a national state of emergency and agreed to allow the U.S. to use SDF bases as well as civilian airports in Okinawa and Kyushu.

In the event of a real Taiwan conflict, Japan could invoke the right to collective self defense and send personnel to team up with the U.S., even if Japan did not come under direct military attacks from China.

In the exercise, Japan designated the conflict as an "existential threat" after learning that China was planning to attack SDF bases being used by the U.S. military.

Maritime Self-Defense Force warships, along with the fleet of F-35 fighters in the Air Self-Defense Force, took part in missile attacks against Chinese forces.

China was eventually overwhelmed by the U.S.-Japan response, with the conflict ceasing in a little over two weeks. China's military supply was cut off, and the final blow came when the coalition took control of airspace over Taiwan.

All told, China lost 156 warships, including two carriers, along with 168 fighter jets and 48 military transport aircraft, according to the scenario. More than 40,000 soldiers were killed or wounded.

The takeaway was that although a Chinese military takeover of Taiwan was thwarted, it came at heavy human and material costs to the self-governed island, the U.S. and Japan.

Taiwan saw 13,000 soldiers dead and wounded in the conflict, including prisoners of war, and lost 18 warships and 200 warplanes. U.S. casualties added up to 10,700 people, with the loss of 19 ships and 400 warplanes.

The JSDF lost 15 vessels and 144 fighter jets, including F-35s and F-2s. Japanese bases were targeted by China, resulting 2,500 casualties among SDF personnel. Civilian casualties ranged from a few hundred people to more than 1,000.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank, also conducted a series of tabletop exercises last year that simulated a cross-strait conflict in 2026.

According to findings, released in January, China fails to successfully invade Taiwan in most of the 24 scenarios, but it comes at a substantial cost for Japan, as it loses over 100 warplanes and 26 warships in the base scenario.

Both the Sasakawa and CSIS exercises are premised on today's arsenals and capabilities in 2026, meaning an actual outcome in 2026 could be different if China significantly boosts its military power.

China is pursuing a rapid military buildup, and some experts say the military balance in the Western Pacific region will favor the country in 2025. In particular, China is racing to build up its arsenal of nuclear weapons.

The U.S. currently possesses 3,800 nuclear warheads to China's 350, according to last year's annual white paper by Japan's Ministry of Defense. On the other hand, China has 278 medium-range and intermediate-range ballistic missiles that can target Japan.

The U.S. does not possess those missiles because it is party to the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty.

"We must make every possible preparation for substantial losses while we still can," said Tsuneo Watanabe, senior security fellow at the Sasakawa Peace Foundation.

Furthermore, China is making advances in information warfare, space development and cyber warfare.

"In the exercise, China tried everything it could to avoid war with the U.S.," said Watanabe. "There's the risk China might try to unify with Taiwan without any physical military conflict."

Dude it's a tiny island hardly 10 km away from Chinese border , if china only send a million Chinese with machine guns only they can take over the whole island
 
TOKYO -- If Japan and the U.S. were to become involved in a conflict between China and Taiwan, they would be able to prevent Beijing's takeover of the island, but at a heavy cost to their military personnel and equipment, think tank simulations show.

A tabletop wargame conducted by Japan's Sasakawa Peace Foundation showed Japan losing as many as 144 fighter jets, with Self-Defense Forces casualties reaching up to 2,500. The U.S. could lose up to 400 jets with over 10,000 soldiers killed or wounded. But China would fail to seize control of the island.

The exercise imagined a cross-strait crisis in which China attempts an amphibious invasion of Taiwan in the year 2026. The simulation was conducted over four days through Jan. 21.

The roughly 30 participants included former Japan Self-Defense Force officers as well as academics and researchers from Japan and the U.S.

The war game pitted the Chinese against Japanese, U.S. and Taiwanese forces. The Chinese military established a command center for the Taiwan front capable of deploying all air, submarine and surface vessel capabilities. The U.S. military responded by sending nuclear-powered aircraft carriers and state-of-the-art fighter jets to areas in and around Taiwan.

In Japan, the prime minister declared a national state of emergency and agreed to allow the U.S. to use SDF bases as well as civilian airports in Okinawa and Kyushu.

In the event of a real Taiwan conflict, Japan could invoke the right to collective self defense and send personnel to team up with the U.S., even if Japan did not come under direct military attacks from China.

In the exercise, Japan designated the conflict as an "existential threat" after learning that China was planning to attack SDF bases being used by the U.S. military.

Maritime Self-Defense Force warships, along with the fleet of F-35 fighters in the Air Self-Defense Force, took part in missile attacks against Chinese forces.

China was eventually overwhelmed by the U.S.-Japan response, with the conflict ceasing in a little over two weeks. China's military supply was cut off, and the final blow came when the coalition took control of airspace over Taiwan.

All told, China lost 156 warships, including two carriers, along with 168 fighter jets and 48 military transport aircraft, according to the scenario. More than 40,000 soldiers were killed or wounded.

The takeaway was that although a Chinese military takeover of Taiwan was thwarted, it came at heavy human and material costs to the self-governed island, the U.S. and Japan.

Taiwan saw 13,000 soldiers dead and wounded in the conflict, including prisoners of war, and lost 18 warships and 200 warplanes. U.S. casualties added up to 10,700 people, with the loss of 19 ships and 400 warplanes.

The JSDF lost 15 vessels and 144 fighter jets, including F-35s and F-2s. Japanese bases were targeted by China, resulting 2,500 casualties among SDF personnel. Civilian casualties ranged from a few hundred people to more than 1,000.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank, also conducted a series of tabletop exercises last year that simulated a cross-strait conflict in 2026.

According to findings, released in January, China fails to successfully invade Taiwan in most of the 24 scenarios, but it comes at a substantial cost for Japan, as it loses over 100 warplanes and 26 warships in the base scenario.

Both the Sasakawa and CSIS exercises are premised on today's arsenals and capabilities in 2026, meaning an actual outcome in 2026 could be different if China significantly boosts its military power.

China is pursuing a rapid military buildup, and some experts say the military balance in the Western Pacific region will favor the country in 2025. In particular, China is racing to build up its arsenal of nuclear weapons.

The U.S. currently possesses 3,800 nuclear warheads to China's 350, according to last year's annual white paper by Japan's Ministry of Defense. On the other hand, China has 278 medium-range and intermediate-range ballistic missiles that can target Japan.

The U.S. does not possess those missiles because it is party to the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty.

"We must make every possible preparation for substantial losses while we still can," said Tsuneo Watanabe, senior security fellow at the Sasakawa Peace Foundation.

Furthermore, China is making advances in information warfare, space development and cyber warfare.

"In the exercise, China tried everything it could to avoid war with the U.S.," said Watanabe. "There's the risk China might try to unify with Taiwan without any physical military conflict."


Here we go, more anti-Chinese propaganda........the blood-thirsty americans want nothing more than war, destruction and bloodshed............ :disagree:
 
As I mentioned before, this war (If this ever happened) is going to depends on who have more disposable aircraft.

Many people think this war is going to be decided with Chinese 5th Gen v US/JPN 5th Gen, but as my own wargame turns out, this war is largely depending on who have more F-16s, J-10s and Other legacy fighter rules the Skies, because at best, US and Chinese 5th gen cancelled each other out, then we will start venturing into Drone and Legacy fighter category. The problem is, China lead slightly ahead of drone, but lagging behind largely by 4th gen fighter they can muster. Which would be a problem because Fighter can kill drone, while the other way does not really works.

So what you have is around 600 Gen 4 Chinese fighter (J-10/J-11) against 1000-1200 Legacy US/JPN/ROC fighter (F-16, F-2, F-15C, F-15E, F-CK-1), those thing can drop bombs and do CAP and also do naval interdiction with Harpoon and whatever JASDF/ROCAF version of Harpoon). That is going to break the Chinese Fleet back in my own war game. That's why I can't venture off 250 nm from Chinese coast because outside that, my Carrier Aviation aren't really enough to protect me from all those threat,
Would building more 2 J-10 be more valuable in your war game or would one J-16? Is it about primarily numbers or higher numbers of more capable 4th Gen fighters. If numbers is the issue, would a WS-15 J-10 provide a significant capability over a standard J-10?

I agree, the PLAN can’t really venture far off shore (a few hundred nautical miles) safely in a Taiwan scenario. The shallow waters of the Taiwan straits, IMHO will allow them to operate a lot of autonomous decoy ships and subs.
 
Would building more 2 J-10 be more valuable in your war game or would one J-16? Is it about primarily numbers or higher numbers of more capable 4th Gen fighters. If numbers is the issue, would a WS-15 J-10 provide a significant capability over a standard J-10?

I agree, the PLAN can’t really venture far off shore (a few hundred nautical miles) safely in a Taiwan scenario. The shallow waters of the Taiwan straits, IMHO will allow them to operate a lot of autonomous decoy ships and subs.
No, well, my game was conducted with resource we already had, we did not put force regeneration as a factor because we want to focus on the near outcome of the war(The game itself lasted for 60 days, so regeneration is pretty much a moot point there), and frankly, If China want to build more, they should have focus on 5th Gen and go straight for Air Superiority, but that would be a tough ask if they are facing both the US and Japan, because for better or worse, you are going to have to get a pilot to fly it, it would be pretty dumb for them to build more J-10 or J-16 unless there are allies willing to fight for China (Pakistan or Burma or others) So they can be put into those.

As I mentioned before, the trouble area is not really Taiwan Strait, but the other side of Taiwan facing the Pacific, once you passed that median, there are just too much sea to hide, and you are going to get into ambushes either from surface or sub-surface or Air, remember if China want to blockade Taiwan, they would have to be statics most of the time, which is very prone to being ambush. China would need offshore support to venture outside, just 3 carrier with 100 or so naval fighter is not going to be enough to provide cover outside fighter based in mainland. And then US can hit them from both North and South, Between Japan. Guam and the Philippines.
 
No, well, my game was conducted with resource we already had, we did not put force regeneration as a factor because we want to focus on the near outcome of the war(The game itself lasted for 60 days, so regeneration is pretty much a moot point there), and frankly, If China want to build more, they should have focus on 5th Gen and go straight for Air Superiority, but that would be a tough ask if they are facing both the US and Japan, because for better or worse, you are going to have to get a pilot to fly it, it would be pretty dumb for them to build more J-10 or J-16 unless there are allies willing to fight for China (Pakistan or Burma or others) So they can be put into those.

As I mentioned before, the trouble area is not really Taiwan Strait, but the other side of Taiwan facing the Pacific, once you passed that median, there are just too much sea to hide, and you are going to get into ambushes either from surface or sub-surface or Air, remember if China want to blockade Taiwan, they would have to be statics most of the time, which is very prone to being ambush. China would need offshore support to venture outside, just 3 carrier with 100 or so naval fighter is not going to be enough to provide cover outside fighter based in mainland. And then US can hit them from both North and South, Between Japan. Guam and the Philippines.
Supposedly, J-20 production rates are nearing 140/yr, so from their current ~250 the numbers are set to increase rapidly. But as you said, the preview of the exercise was as Rumsfeld once put it “you go to war with the army you have not the one you wish you had”.

IMHO, It seems like J-10 production will probably slow if not end soon, for the PLAAF use, as CAC shifts to production of the J-20 (GAC will keeping making J-10 but probably for export like the PAF) Shenyang will probably keep making J-16 and then mostly transition to J-35 production, when the PLAAF and PLANAF are satisfied with the J-11/J-16 numbers.

It seems like the PLAN is going for 2 ski jump carriers, 2 CV super carriers, as well Type 076 “escort carriers/LHDs”, and then starting building CVN super carriers starting in 2026.

I doubt any of at will happen till at least 2035. There is too much equipment to build and train upon, as you yourself pointed out, to do it fast and sloppy the ways the Russians have been doing in Ukraine.
 
Dude it's a tiny island hardly 10 km away from Chinese border , if china only send a million Chinese with machine guns only they can take over the whole island
How exactly you think those 1 Million Chinese gonna reach Taiwan? Amphibious operations are the most complex plus Taiwan is heavily armed too. If it was that easy, it would have been done by now.
 
Dude it's a tiny island hardly 10 km away from Chinese border , if china only send a million Chinese with machine guns only they can take over the whole island
So when will the PLA hire you as a consultant?
 
For past 20 years I have been hearing this simulation was done and china won. Oh that simulation was done with f22 and China still won. Oh that simulation was done with 30 nations and China won and now they cherry picked a simulation where they think they are gonna win and call it a day. Dude.
 
Send 20,000 scouting balloons to Taiwan. 20,000 drones are produced every day and sent to Taiwan. It costs more to shoot down than to manufacture. Taiwan must be a protracted war. 10 years, 20 years.China is in no hurry.
 
Supposedly, J-20 production rates are nearing 140/yr, so from their current ~250 the numbers are set to increase rapidly. But as you said, the preview of the exercise was as Rumsfeld once put it “you go to war with the army you have not the one you wish you had”.

IMHO, It seems like J-10 production will probably slow if not end soon, for the PLAAF use, as CAC shifts to production of the J-20 (GAC will keeping making J-10 but probably for export like the PAF) Shenyang will probably keep making J-16 and then mostly transition to J-35 production, when the PLAAF and PLANAF are satisfied with the J-11/J-16 numbers.

It seems like the PLAN is going for 2 ski jump carriers, 2 CV super carriers, as well Type 076 “escort carriers/LHDs”, and then starting building CVN super carriers starting in 2026.

I doubt any of at will happen till at least 2035. There is too much equipment to build and train upon, as you yourself pointed out, to do it fast and sloppy the ways the Russians have been doing in Ukraine.
I doubt they can do 140 J-20 a year. That's a lot even for the USAF point of view, and you are talking about 5 Gen stuff, as my brother points out, that's not building a model car, it takes something very precise to fabricate and assemble. I mean LM which have 5 decade of fighter manufacture experience can only ramp that up to 143 a year, I don't see how China can jump from around 80 a year to 140 a year. I don't know, maybe they can. It just didn't sound like a probable number for me.

But anyway, 076 wouldn't do much on sea interdiction unless they can make a version of jump jet like AV8/Harrier or F-35B so by 2027, PLAN would only be looking at 2+1 carrier force, that is not going to be enough especially if US Navy and JMSDF are involved, that would bring 2 Fleet Carrier and 4/6 (depends on whether the JMSDF can convert the 2 Izumo before said war break out. And that is before US reinforce the 3rd Fleet with 7th Fleet and most likely 5th Fleet, if that happens, the sea outside Taiwan strait is going to be closed to China.

If China wants to retake Taiwan, PLA would want to keep it between Taiwan and China, but in reality, that's not really possible even US did a Ukraine on Taiwan (Just send stuff, not directly involved) because Taiwan would make this fight a lot harder and unlike Ukraine, Taiwan would probably have carte blanc on anything US can spare, and not just send over piece meal like they did with Ukraine. If US and Japan were not directly involved, then it will all depends on how long China can sustain the attack, because it would be a multi-year affair. If the Chinese can hold on even with sanction and US and possible EU equipment transfer, then PLA would win such a war, but it would have to be with very heavy casualty.
 
Dude it's a tiny island hardly 10 km away from Chinese border , if china only send a million Chinese with machine guns only they can take over the whole island
You have no idea what you are talking about.
An Amphibious invasion is one of the hardest thing on Earth to do. There are only a hand full of countries who can actually pull it off. China has not demonstrated itself to be one of them, and that too against THE supper power and two Island nations as its ally who are no joke in terms of fire power.

Let me show you something cool, go to Google map and type in "Xiamen China"
Then look at the water to the right of it. a few km is an Island called "Kinmen County"
That Island belong to Taiwan... China, in 70 years, has not even been able to take that Island, forget about Taiwan itself.
 

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