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TOKYO -- If Japan and the U.S. were to become involved in a conflict between China and Taiwan, they would be able to prevent Beijing's takeover of the island, but at a heavy cost to their military personnel and equipment, think tank simulations show.
A tabletop wargame conducted by Japan's Sasakawa Peace Foundation showed Japan losing as many as 144 fighter jets, with Self-Defense Forces casualties reaching up to 2,500. The U.S. could lose up to 400 jets with over 10,000 soldiers killed or wounded. But China would fail to seize control of the island.
The exercise imagined a cross-strait crisis in which China attempts an amphibious invasion of Taiwan in the year 2026. The simulation was conducted over four days through Jan. 21.
The roughly 30 participants included former Japan Self-Defense Force officers as well as academics and researchers from Japan and the U.S.
The war game pitted the Chinese against Japanese, U.S. and Taiwanese forces. The Chinese military established a command center for the Taiwan front capable of deploying all air, submarine and surface vessel capabilities. The U.S. military responded by sending nuclear-powered aircraft carriers and state-of-the-art fighter jets to areas in and around Taiwan.
In Japan, the prime minister declared a national state of emergency and agreed to allow the U.S. to use SDF bases as well as civilian airports in Okinawa and Kyushu.
In the event of a real Taiwan conflict, Japan could invoke the right to collective self defense and send personnel to team up with the U.S., even if Japan did not come under direct military attacks from China.
In the exercise, Japan designated the conflict as an "existential threat" after learning that China was planning to attack SDF bases being used by the U.S. military.
Maritime Self-Defense Force warships, along with the fleet of F-35 fighters in the Air Self-Defense Force, took part in missile attacks against Chinese forces.
China was eventually overwhelmed by the U.S.-Japan response, with the conflict ceasing in a little over two weeks. China's military supply was cut off, and the final blow came when the coalition took control of airspace over Taiwan.
All told, China lost 156 warships, including two carriers, along with 168 fighter jets and 48 military transport aircraft, according to the scenario. More than 40,000 soldiers were killed or wounded.
The takeaway was that although a Chinese military takeover of Taiwan was thwarted, it came at heavy human and material costs to the self-governed island, the U.S. and Japan.
Taiwan saw 13,000 soldiers dead and wounded in the conflict, including prisoners of war, and lost 18 warships and 200 warplanes. U.S. casualties added up to 10,700 people, with the loss of 19 ships and 400 warplanes.
The JSDF lost 15 vessels and 144 fighter jets, including F-35s and F-2s. Japanese bases were targeted by China, resulting 2,500 casualties among SDF personnel. Civilian casualties ranged from a few hundred people to more than 1,000.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank, also conducted a series of tabletop exercises last year that simulated a cross-strait conflict in 2026.
According to findings, released in January, China fails to successfully invade Taiwan in most of the 24 scenarios, but it comes at a substantial cost for Japan, as it loses over 100 warplanes and 26 warships in the base scenario.
Both the Sasakawa and CSIS exercises are premised on today's arsenals and capabilities in 2026, meaning an actual outcome in 2026 could be different if China significantly boosts its military power.
China is pursuing a rapid military buildup, and some experts say the military balance in the Western Pacific region will favor the country in 2025. In particular, China is racing to build up its arsenal of nuclear weapons.
The U.S. currently possesses 3,800 nuclear warheads to China's 350, according to last year's annual white paper by Japan's Ministry of Defense. On the other hand, China has 278 medium-range and intermediate-range ballistic missiles that can target Japan.
The U.S. does not possess those missiles because it is party to the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty.
"We must make every possible preparation for substantial losses while we still can," said Tsuneo Watanabe, senior security fellow at the Sasakawa Peace Foundation.
Furthermore, China is making advances in information warfare, space development and cyber warfare.
"In the exercise, China tried everything it could to avoid war with the U.S.," said Watanabe. "There's the risk China might try to unify with Taiwan without any physical military conflict."
asia.nikkei.com
A tabletop wargame conducted by Japan's Sasakawa Peace Foundation showed Japan losing as many as 144 fighter jets, with Self-Defense Forces casualties reaching up to 2,500. The U.S. could lose up to 400 jets with over 10,000 soldiers killed or wounded. But China would fail to seize control of the island.
The exercise imagined a cross-strait crisis in which China attempts an amphibious invasion of Taiwan in the year 2026. The simulation was conducted over four days through Jan. 21.
The roughly 30 participants included former Japan Self-Defense Force officers as well as academics and researchers from Japan and the U.S.
The war game pitted the Chinese against Japanese, U.S. and Taiwanese forces. The Chinese military established a command center for the Taiwan front capable of deploying all air, submarine and surface vessel capabilities. The U.S. military responded by sending nuclear-powered aircraft carriers and state-of-the-art fighter jets to areas in and around Taiwan.
In Japan, the prime minister declared a national state of emergency and agreed to allow the U.S. to use SDF bases as well as civilian airports in Okinawa and Kyushu.
In the event of a real Taiwan conflict, Japan could invoke the right to collective self defense and send personnel to team up with the U.S., even if Japan did not come under direct military attacks from China.
In the exercise, Japan designated the conflict as an "existential threat" after learning that China was planning to attack SDF bases being used by the U.S. military.
Maritime Self-Defense Force warships, along with the fleet of F-35 fighters in the Air Self-Defense Force, took part in missile attacks against Chinese forces.
China was eventually overwhelmed by the U.S.-Japan response, with the conflict ceasing in a little over two weeks. China's military supply was cut off, and the final blow came when the coalition took control of airspace over Taiwan.
All told, China lost 156 warships, including two carriers, along with 168 fighter jets and 48 military transport aircraft, according to the scenario. More than 40,000 soldiers were killed or wounded.
The takeaway was that although a Chinese military takeover of Taiwan was thwarted, it came at heavy human and material costs to the self-governed island, the U.S. and Japan.
Taiwan saw 13,000 soldiers dead and wounded in the conflict, including prisoners of war, and lost 18 warships and 200 warplanes. U.S. casualties added up to 10,700 people, with the loss of 19 ships and 400 warplanes.
The JSDF lost 15 vessels and 144 fighter jets, including F-35s and F-2s. Japanese bases were targeted by China, resulting 2,500 casualties among SDF personnel. Civilian casualties ranged from a few hundred people to more than 1,000.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank, also conducted a series of tabletop exercises last year that simulated a cross-strait conflict in 2026.
According to findings, released in January, China fails to successfully invade Taiwan in most of the 24 scenarios, but it comes at a substantial cost for Japan, as it loses over 100 warplanes and 26 warships in the base scenario.
Both the Sasakawa and CSIS exercises are premised on today's arsenals and capabilities in 2026, meaning an actual outcome in 2026 could be different if China significantly boosts its military power.
China is pursuing a rapid military buildup, and some experts say the military balance in the Western Pacific region will favor the country in 2025. In particular, China is racing to build up its arsenal of nuclear weapons.
The U.S. currently possesses 3,800 nuclear warheads to China's 350, according to last year's annual white paper by Japan's Ministry of Defense. On the other hand, China has 278 medium-range and intermediate-range ballistic missiles that can target Japan.
The U.S. does not possess those missiles because it is party to the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty.
"We must make every possible preparation for substantial losses while we still can," said Tsuneo Watanabe, senior security fellow at the Sasakawa Peace Foundation.
Furthermore, China is making advances in information warfare, space development and cyber warfare.
"In the exercise, China tried everything it could to avoid war with the U.S.," said Watanabe. "There's the risk China might try to unify with Taiwan without any physical military conflict."
Japan could lose 144 fighter jets in Taiwan crisis: simulation
U.S.-Japanese alliance would prevent Chinese takeover but at a high cost
asia.nikkei.com
