Demography: China's Achilles heel

[Götterdämmerung]

Well your info seems pretty outdated ! Just so you know between Infy, Wipro, TCS, Tech Mahindra & HCL Tech(the top 5 domestic IT firms) they employ well over half a million highly skilled workers(certainly not call centers) now add IBM, Microsoft, HP, Oracle, Accenture etc. & all the major IT firms around the world & majority of'em have their largest workforce outside of US in guess where ? You shouldn't try to poke around when there isn't much fun in false info that'll be repudiated by others !

None of your IT companies are amongst the top ten in size and in revenue. Even adding the foreign companies, your workforce in the IT sector is not bigger than a few millions, most of them working in call-centres or doing simple codings. But the service sector is much bigger than just IT. In Germany, 73.5 % of the workforce is working in the tertiary industry starting from logistic, healthcare to the software developer. That's almost 30 million out of 41 million. The situation is similar in France, the UK and Scandinavia. The EU has a workforce of 170 million in the tertiary sector (70% of workforce).

Are you delusional or something? It's incredibly obvious that China is ahead of India on total knowledge.

Of course they are delusional. China has a bigger IT industry than India, but mostly for internal consumption, china also has a few universities amongst the top 100 while India has none, China has a few ttimes more WIPO patents granted than India and China has less illiterate people and Indians still have the cheek to mock China. Incredible India.

 

[R0H1T]

None of your IT companies are amongst the top ten in size and in revenue. Even adding the foreign companies, your workforce in the IT sector is not bigger than a few millions, most of them working in call-centres or doing simple codings. But the service sector is much bigger than just IT. In Germany, 73.5 % of the workforce is working in the tertiary industry starting from logistic, healthcare to the software developer. That's almost 30 million out of 41 million. The situation is similar in France, the UK and Scandinavia. The EU has a workforce of 170 million in the tertiary sector (70% of workforce).

Doesn't matter was talking about numbers not output !
I can't give you the exact figures btw IND has ~60% of the GDP that comes from the services sector that means atleast a third of the workforce gets direct employment from it, now I was talking about a single nation having the most number of people in the IT sector & still stand by that claim !

 

[gpit]

Guys, I have already pointed out in numerous posts that age is an important factor for economic growth but is not the sole factor, much less a deterministic factor.

In fact, there are many other important factors that can sustain, stimulate or damp the growth.

For instance, most people would rather stay in an aging and rich Japan where technologies are well developed and quality of life is high, than in a young and poor country such as India where communal violence is rampant and illiteracy is vast.

In fact, huge number of young and uneducated illiterates are the root of social disorder and communal turbulence. Agitating hormone in illiterates or semi-illiterates, such as some shown up in PDF, contributes only to murder, raping, prostitutes, drug abuse, … or irrationality, illogicality, hunky-dory mentality, false imaginarily, big-mouth, jingoism, lying, fact-denying, mental-masturbation, delusion, hallucination, … Do you think those will positively contribute to the economy?

On the other side, aging but well educated population can contribute substantially to high end of an economy. They may lose physical power which can be substituted by commanding machines or importing selectively cheap labors from foreign countries, but they still have brain power plus the experiences accumulated over their professional careers. In a developed world, physical power plays less and less role unlike in the medieval dark time, rather knowledge and experiences occupy a more and more importance position.

Those who put too much emphasis on age demography while neglecting education and experiences and other important factors obviously haven’t get rid of their medieval backward mentality.

 

[Vinod2070]

A knowledge economy with, at best, 25% illiterates and not one university in the top 100. Incredible India!

What has India got to do with this thread?

A bit scraped? Just about 10% may be?

Typical pakistani mentality... seeing everything through Indian prism...

what the heck topic has to do with India and Indians..

Someone needs to show their value to the Chinese.

Truth hurts.

105>85

Yes, one white man bound you up and measured your sizes.

He told you that you had an IQ of 105. You don't know where IQ is inside the body but the stupid smirk has never left your stupid face since.

 

[hembo]

He's gunning for Indian thanks again!

Knowing you, you could have done better pal!!! Being personal doesn't suit you.

 

[VCheng]

It's not easy, but the one-child policy can be reversed through baby bonuses. Many Western countries, including Australia, have such schemes. In Australia, at least, it has worked quite well. So much so that there is thought of doubling the bonus from 5k to 10k.

The population trends till 2050 or so indicated in the article have already been set by the policies of the past. They will happen. Any policies such as those you propose will have their effect only beyond that time period even if instituted now post haste. Therefore, the price to be paid to redress that imbalance will detract from China's rise to the top. That is also a given. Whether China is able to rise to the challenge or not, however, remains to be seen, and how well so.

 

[Developereo]

The population trends till 2050 or so indicated in the article have already been set by the policies of the past. They will happen. Any policies such as those you propose will have their effect only beyond that time period even if instituted now post haste. Therefore, the price to be paid to redress that imbalance will detract from China's rise to the top. That is also a given. Whether China is able to rise to the challenge or not, however, remains to be seen, and how well so.

How do you figure? Any scheme instituted today and babies born in this decade will be in their 30s in 2050. That is considered the prime working age.

Heck, they can hand out $10k vouchers and state-sponsored benefits for kids. China needs to spur domestic consumption anyway, this scheme helps both goals.

 

[faithfulguy]

Truth hurts.

105>85

What is that number, IQ again? I think its time to stop this pee pee measurement.

Back to the topic, if things stay the same, China would encounter a major shortage of labor force and a large elderly population that will be a drain on the economy.

 

[VCheng]

How do you figure? Any scheme instituted today and babies born in this decade will be in their 30s in 2050. That is considered the prime working age.................

Yes, but that population will need to support the much larger working population now which will have grown older by then, thus adversely raising the worker to retiree ratio, as the article explains. Capiche?

 

[Banu Umayyah]

But China will definitely change its one-child policy by 2020.

 

[VCheng]

But China will definitely change its one-child policy by 2020.

Yes, and the effects of those potential changes have been taken into account already while drawing the trends and inferring their impact.

 

[Oy.vey]

Large-scale immigration poses problems of its own. America is one of the rare examples of a country that has managed to use mass immigration to build a skilled labour force. But America is an open, multi-ethnic society with a long history of immigration and strong legal and political institutions.

HAHAHAA!! HHAHAHAHA!!!

Have Americans bothered to look at their demography? Majority of blacks are living off welfare, despite what American tell you, they are the biggest welfare state on the planet. Do you really believe you can build a future on all those welfare entitled blacks and hispanics? You'd think with so many underclass Americans, they'd be desperate to work so then why are all those mexicans and blacks such a welfare burden? Furthermore whites in the US will become a minority by 2050, do you really think non-white majority will be content with a minority white ruling class? Obama was elected on the premise of his race after all. Look at any South East Asian, South American country, or South Africa; people will always vote on ethno-religious lines - India is a perfect example, it's basically 100 little South African banana republics masquerading as a country. America is going the way of South Africa so between China and South Africa, I know which I'd bet on.