Disintegration of China because of economic collapse?

[atatwolf]

"China’s economy, like the economies of Japan and other East Asian states before it, will reduce its rate of growth dramatically in order to calibrate growth with the rate of return on capital and to bring its financial system into balance. To do this, it will have to deal with the resulting social and political tensions," says STRATFOR's Decade Forecast.

It explains: "First, China’s current economic model is not sustainable. That model favors employment over all other concerns, and can only be maintained by running on thin margins."

"Second, the Chinese model is only possible so long as Western populations continue to consume Chinese goods in increasing volumes. European demographics alone will make that impossible in the next decade."

"Third, the Chinese model requires cheap labor as well as cheap capital to produce cheap goods. The bottom has fallen out of the Chinese birthrate; by 2020 the average Chinese will be nearly as old as the average American, but will have achieved nowhere near the level of education to add as much value. The result will be a labor shortage in both qualitative and quantitative terms."

"Finally, internal tensions will break the current system. More than 1 billion Chinese live in households whose income is below $2,000 a year (with 600 million below $1,000 a year). The government knows this and is trying to shift resources to the vast interior comprising the bulk of China. But this region is so populous and so poor — and so vulnerable to minor shifts in China’s economic fortunes — that China simply lacks the resources to cope."
STRATFOR'S TOP PREDICTIONS FOR THE NEXT DECADE: China Collapse, Global Labor Shortages, New American Dominance

Video:
PRAGMATIC CAPITALISM – STRATFOR: “CHINA WILL COLLAPSE”

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

STRATFOR? Now where have I heard that name before?

Oh yes, their founder is George Friedman, who wrote this book.

The Next 100 Years - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Here are some of the predictions in this book:

In the 2020s and 2030s, three main powers will emerge in Eurasia. Turkey, Japan, and Poland. Turkey will expand its sphere of influence into the Arab world, which will have increasingly fragmented by then, and into what was once Russia and the former Soviet Union, Japan will expand its influence to Chinese regions and many Pacific Islands, and Poland will continue to dominate Eastern Europe through the "Polish Bloc". The United States will be allied with all three powers initially, but will gradually become an adversary of both the new Turkish empire and Japanese empire, who will grow in power in the 2020s and 2030s, and begin to threaten American interests. Friedman states that Japan and Turkey will probably form an alliance near the end of this period, in an effort to counter the overwhelming global power of the United States.

Friedman predicts a third world war between these two coalitions sometime around 2050. He asserts that the war will probably be started by a coordinated sneak attack against the United States and its allies by the Japanese and Turkish empires. He states that the war will be a form of limited war, and that it will be very different in its conduct than a total war, such as World War II of the 20th century. He predicts that the United States and its allies will win, that the war will last two to three years, and that it will cost somewhere around 50,000 lives. Friedman predicts after the war, the United States will enjoy a properous decade in the 2060s due to the fact that no nation could challenge it at this time.

 

[atatwolf]

What are your thoughts about his predictions about China?

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

What are your thoughts about his predictions about China?

Here are my thoughts:

In 1989, after the Tiananmen incident, the world said that China was "on the verge of collapse".

So we have been "on the verge of collapse" for the past 20 years. Funnily enough, that was the period of our greatest economic development.

As long as people keep predicting our collapse, then that will force the Chinese leadership to stay on their toes. I consider this to be a very good thing.

 

[Beast]

What are your thoughts about his predictions about China?

China will become the sole super power in the next 20 years. China will rewrite history.

That is what he shall wrote.

Seriously this author is an anti china. He just too jealous of the spectacular sucess of china.

 

[Hammer-fist]

A strong China is a strong Asia.

 

[atatwolf]

Here are my thoughts:

In 1989, after the Tiananmen incident, the world said that China was "on the verge of collapse".

So we have been "on the verge of collapse" for the past 20 years. Funnily enough, that was the period of our greatest economic development.

As long as people keep predicting our collapse, then that will force the Chinese leadership to stay on their toes. I consider this to be a very good thing.

But I think you didn't listen to his arguments.

China rich and poor gap is growing and your economy are in the hands of foreigners. They can let you grow and fall how they wish. So I don't think you should compare it to previous situations China was in. China has huge problems imho in the coming future.

China will become the sole super power in the next 20 years. China will rewrite history.

That is what he shall wrote.

Seriously this author is an anti china. He just too jealous of the spectacular sucess of china.

China is too dependent for that.

"Second, the Chinese model is only possible so long as Western populations continue to consume Chinese goods in increasing volumes. European demographics alone will make that impossible in the next decade."

"Third, the Chinese model requires cheap labor as well as cheap capital to produce cheap goods. The bottom has fallen out of the Chinese birthrate; by 2020 the average Chinese will be nearly as old as the average American, but will have achieved nowhere near the level of education to add as much value. The result will be a labor shortage in both qualitative and quantitative terms."

Source: http://www.defence.pk/forums/chines...-because-economic-collapse.html#ixzz2GsLl9Woy

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

But I think you didn't listen to his arguments.

China rich and poor gap is growing and your economy are in the hands of foreigners. They can let you grow and fall how they wish. So I don't think you should compare it to previous situations China was in. China has huge problems imho.

China has already had hundreds of economic collapses in our history. And we have always recovered and reunited in the end.

If anyone believes that China will crash soon, then they can put their money where their mouth is, and bet against China in the stock markets.

And "hands of foreigners"? We are probably the only major country apart from the US in which our own companies dominate the domestic markets, for instance we use Baidu instead of Google.

 

[atatwolf]

China has already had hundreds of economic collapses in our history. And we have always recovered and reunited in the end.

If anyone believes that China will crash soon, then they can put their money where their mouth is, and bet against China in the stock markets.

And "hands of foreigners"? We are probably the only major country apart from the US in which our own companies dominate the domestic markets, for instance we use Baidu instead of Google.

Comment on this:


"Second, the Chinese model is only possible so long as Western populations continue to consume Chinese goods in increasing volumes. European demographics alone will make that impossible in the next decade."

"Third, the Chinese model requires cheap labor as well as cheap capital to produce cheap goods. The bottom has fallen out of the Chinese birthrate; by 2020 the average Chinese will be nearly as old as the average American, but will have achieved nowhere near the level of education to add as much value. The result will be a labor shortage in both qualitative and quantitative terms."

 

[Beast]

But I think you didn't listen to his arguments.

China rich and poor gap is growing and your economy are in the hands of foreigners. They can let you grow and fall how they wish. So I don't think you should compare it to previous situations China was in. China has huge problems imho in the coming future.

China is too dependent for that.

"Second, the Chinese model is only possible so long as Western populations continue to consume Chinese goods in increasing volumes. European demographics alone will make that impossible in the next decade."

"Third, the Chinese model requires cheap labor as well as cheap capital to produce cheap goods. The bottom has fallen out of the Chinese birthrate; by 2020 the average Chinese will be nearly as old as the average American, but will have achieved nowhere near the level of education to add as much value. The result will be a labor shortage in both qualitative and quantitative terms."

Source: http://www.defence.pk/forums/chines...-because-economic-collapse.html#ixzz2GsLl9Woy

Seriously , you are too outdated for this data. China domestic market is powering large number of growth. His analysis is based on record of probably 10 years ago. You know reason why Japan economy data recently is very bad after spat with china? Why German auto is so dependent on china? Why Europe luxurious brand like Prada and Louis Vutton are so desperate to increase its presence in china? If there is no Chinese buyer , why bother to setup more shops and invest more? You think those company are idiots?

As for poor and rich gap, every country has this problem. If its going to cause china to fall, other will not make it too.

And china wealth is essentially control by CCP, it is only the author wishful thinking that its control by foreigner. You think CCP are some stupid idiot? Tell the author to be nice to china and stop writing rot. China can make you live or dead in future.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Comment on this:


"Second, the Chinese model is only possible so long as Western populations continue to consume Chinese goods in increasing volumes. European demographics alone will make that impossible in the next decade."

"Third, the Chinese model requires cheap labor as well as cheap capital to produce cheap goods. The bottom has fallen out of the Chinese birthrate; by 2020 the average Chinese will be nearly as old as the average American, but will have achieved nowhere near the level of education to add as much value. The result will be a labor shortage in both qualitative and quantitative terms."

Here you go:

Financial Times - China unlocks right kind of growth

China has never lacked for growth over the past decade but it has suffered from the wrong kind of growth, developing a dangerous reliance on investment.

Tucked into its latest economic data was evidence that the country has finally started to address this problem. Consumption clearly surpassed investment as China’s biggest growth engine, reinforcing a trend that emerged earlier this year – and something that has rarely happened over the past decade.

In the first three quarters, consumption accounted for 55 per cent of growth, while investment contributed 50.5 per cent. With external demand weak, net exports actually subtracted 5.5 per cent, according to data from the national statistics bureau.

Here is the latest economic data. Consumption has clearly become the largest engine of Chinese growth, followed by investment. Net exports on the other hand are actually a drain on our growth.

Which means the data used by George Friedman is outdated, which makes sense because he made the prediction in 2009.

 

[Dandpatta]

People who write about China's collapse don't understand that with its collapse they will pull other strong economies into its whirlpool. IF that happens, that is.

All this talk about China disintegrating due to economic collapse is balderdash. If China had to disintegrate, it had many chances before. Each time it has stood stronger and stronger.

I am not a CCP lover but I will be fair about China as a country (not as its politburo) that it will withstand shocks envisaged by western economic fiction writers.

 

[Silverblaze]

Well, Americans love disintegration. I fear US doesn't disintegrate itself and even fall of the fiscal cliff.

Shootings, crimes and the spread of needless hate and what not is happening in the US.

As far China is concerned, it needs improvement no doubt, but China has the ability to sustain its growth as it has loads of Cash.

However, this does not mean that I in any way support Chinese regime. But I just want the nosy Americans to worry about their own problems.

 

[jbond197]

What a weird thread! This is probably a stupidest joke I have ever heard!!

 

[karan21]

Well if it is about economy forget it. China is going ahead for next 20 year. No one can stop china not even the chinese themselves. The only thing that will hit china hard is the age factor. Chinese kids will grow oder much before they get world class education. China growth rate will slow down gradually which is normal for aany economy.

I dont know what makes world worry about Chinese collapse. Chinese people have one race and no religious or cultural differences. On the other hand India has much more clashing cultures and diversities. India is many times more prone to collapse. Worry abt 1.3 billion Indians, Chinese will do fine.


Anyways if we both nations survive 40 yrs of high growth rate. History will be indeed rewritten and all these hating mouths will be shut for good.