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Fractures in Arab Gulf alliance a greater threat to oil security than Islamic State
Break up of the Gulf Co-operation Council could threaten world's largest oil fields as Saudi Arabia and Qatar lock horns over alleged support for Terrorist.
In 1981 six Arab monarchies, which today control about a fifth of the world’s oil supply, formed the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC).
As the war between Iraq and Iran intensified, the Sunni Arab sheikhdoms of the Gulf peninsula - Saudi Arabia, Oman, United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar - originally came together in theory to form a Middle Eastern version of the European Union. Although the group has no formal political charter like the EU, it still provides the only official forum where all six leaders of these oil-rich countries can sit down together to debate and agree on mutually beneficial policies in the region.
But the rise of Islamic extremism across the Middle East, America’s growing willingness to deal with Iran and lingering leadership succession issues amongst member states are now unpicking the ties that have bound the GCC together in a tectonic shift that could have profound implications for the security of the world’s largest oil fields.
Formed in the shadow of war, its initial purpose was to help guarantee security mainly from larger Pan-Arab nationalist despots such as Saddam Hussein and the threat posed by the Shiite Mullahs in Tehran. But after the US invasion of Iraq in 2003 its focus became increasingly economic. Initiatives such as interconnecting electricity networks across the GCC, regional transportation projects including a railway and the possibility of a formal currency union took hold.
Often criticised as being just a powerless club of oil-rich benign dictators, the GCC has arguably done more than any other institution to guarantee political and economic stability over the last 35 years in the region once dominated by warring bedouin tribes. However, the populist forces unleashed by the Arab Spring uprisings of 2010 and the rise of extremists under the banner of either the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, or the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (Isil) now threaten to tear it apart.
Tensions between Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar were understood to have again come to head this weekend with an emergency meeting of foreign ministers in the Red Sea city of Jeddah described by the Saudi newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat as being “critical”. Riyadh and Abu Dhabi have accused authorities in Doha of supporting terror related groups such as the Muslim Brotherhood and meddling in the internal affairs of other GCC states.
The meetings could eventually lead to Qatar - the world’s biggest shipper of liquified natural gas - being ejected from the GCC. They also come at an awkward moment in the group’s history when a number of its leading ruling dynasties are in transition.
“People in the region say the GCC is effectively over as an organisation,” said Christopher Davidson, a reader in Middle East politics at Durham University. “Cracks are now appearing in the half-century old client state system in the region.”
In Oman - where rumours over the health of the country’s childless leader Sultan Qaboos have brought decision making to a halt in recent months and caused growing speculation over the succession - the country has slowly moved closer to Iran. Bilateral talks between Muscat and Tehran over a number of energy deals have deviated from the GCC’s naturally hawkish line on Iran. Meanwhile in Iraq, Isil is reported to be earning $2m (£1.2m) per day from oil fields it has already captured.
However, a bigger danger than Isil to the security of the world’s largest oilfields in the Gulf is arguably a wider breakdown of political co-operation across the region. Despite these dangerous risks, oil prices are under downward pressure with Brent crude suffering its biggest falls in more than a year to trade close to $100 per barrel.
“We’ve got the barbarians at the gates of the world’s largest oil fields and the price of crude has hardly moved, which tells me this instability has been factored in,” said Davidson.
Fractures in Arab Gulf alliance a greater threat to oil security than Islamic State - Telegraph
Break up of the Gulf Co-operation Council could threaten world's largest oil fields as Saudi Arabia and Qatar lock horns over alleged support for Terrorist.
In 1981 six Arab monarchies, which today control about a fifth of the world’s oil supply, formed the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC).
As the war between Iraq and Iran intensified, the Sunni Arab sheikhdoms of the Gulf peninsula - Saudi Arabia, Oman, United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar - originally came together in theory to form a Middle Eastern version of the European Union. Although the group has no formal political charter like the EU, it still provides the only official forum where all six leaders of these oil-rich countries can sit down together to debate and agree on mutually beneficial policies in the region.
But the rise of Islamic extremism across the Middle East, America’s growing willingness to deal with Iran and lingering leadership succession issues amongst member states are now unpicking the ties that have bound the GCC together in a tectonic shift that could have profound implications for the security of the world’s largest oil fields.
Formed in the shadow of war, its initial purpose was to help guarantee security mainly from larger Pan-Arab nationalist despots such as Saddam Hussein and the threat posed by the Shiite Mullahs in Tehran. But after the US invasion of Iraq in 2003 its focus became increasingly economic. Initiatives such as interconnecting electricity networks across the GCC, regional transportation projects including a railway and the possibility of a formal currency union took hold.
Often criticised as being just a powerless club of oil-rich benign dictators, the GCC has arguably done more than any other institution to guarantee political and economic stability over the last 35 years in the region once dominated by warring bedouin tribes. However, the populist forces unleashed by the Arab Spring uprisings of 2010 and the rise of extremists under the banner of either the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, or the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (Isil) now threaten to tear it apart.
Tensions between Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar were understood to have again come to head this weekend with an emergency meeting of foreign ministers in the Red Sea city of Jeddah described by the Saudi newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat as being “critical”. Riyadh and Abu Dhabi have accused authorities in Doha of supporting terror related groups such as the Muslim Brotherhood and meddling in the internal affairs of other GCC states.
The meetings could eventually lead to Qatar - the world’s biggest shipper of liquified natural gas - being ejected from the GCC. They also come at an awkward moment in the group’s history when a number of its leading ruling dynasties are in transition.
“People in the region say the GCC is effectively over as an organisation,” said Christopher Davidson, a reader in Middle East politics at Durham University. “Cracks are now appearing in the half-century old client state system in the region.”
In Oman - where rumours over the health of the country’s childless leader Sultan Qaboos have brought decision making to a halt in recent months and caused growing speculation over the succession - the country has slowly moved closer to Iran. Bilateral talks between Muscat and Tehran over a number of energy deals have deviated from the GCC’s naturally hawkish line on Iran. Meanwhile in Iraq, Isil is reported to be earning $2m (£1.2m) per day from oil fields it has already captured.
However, a bigger danger than Isil to the security of the world’s largest oilfields in the Gulf is arguably a wider breakdown of political co-operation across the region. Despite these dangerous risks, oil prices are under downward pressure with Brent crude suffering its biggest falls in more than a year to trade close to $100 per barrel.
“We’ve got the barbarians at the gates of the world’s largest oil fields and the price of crude has hardly moved, which tells me this instability has been factored in,” said Davidson.
Fractures in Arab Gulf alliance a greater threat to oil security than Islamic State - Telegraph
