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In the West, China is a rival.But in much of the rest of the world, China is looked at as a valuable economic partner and a possible geopolitical alternative – or counterbalance – to the U.S. and Europe,a new study says
Aug 19, 2022From the perspective of the United States and most of its allies, China is a systemic rival that undermines the stability of the rules-based order through its hegemonic ambitions and disregard for democracy and human rights.
But in much of the rest of the world, China is looked at as a valuable economic partner and a possible geopolitical alternative – or counterbalance – to the U.S. and Europe, according to a study released Thursday by the Berlin-based Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) that analyzed global views on China and Sino-U.S. relations.
“For many E.U. capitals, systemic rivalry is becoming the dominant framework through which decision-makers look at relations with China, but this view is not fully shared even within the E.U., and it is certainly not universal at the global level,” said Helena Legarda, a MERICS analyst on Chinese foreign and defense policies and one of the editors of the study.
“Attitudes towards China’s rise are as numerous and varied as the U.N.’s member countries, many of which take a more critical view of the United States and the West than of China,” noted the expert, pointing out that Beijing’s stated ambition of becoming a “fully developed, rich, and powerful” nation by 2049 will hinge on whether it can secure support from developing countries, as well as on how these nations respond to the intensifying Sino-U.S. rivalry.
The study features insights from authors representing Bangladesh, Chile, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Turkey on their respective countries’ political, economic and security relations with China. These countries, Legarda noted, were chosen for their geographic and cultural diversity, varied levels of development, different government types and various degrees of proximity to China.
According to the study results, attitudes toward China and Sino-U.S. tensions in these countries diverged widely from the mainstream narratives in developed liberal democracies, with the public in the selected nations having a generally positive view of China.
Strong economic ties
For instance, economic ties with Beijing have expanded in nearly all eight countries since 2012, with China now making up a much larger share of both imports and exports.“China has become – for most – either the largest trading partner, or among the largest,” wrote the authors of the report, adding that closer business ties, growing trade and Chinese inbound investment were generally viewed positively.
All these countries have signed on to the Belt and Road initiative and all have railways, ports, airports, and other projects built by China and funded by Chinese banks. “With some exceptions – Kenya and Kazakhstan – contributors reported limited concerns about the sustainability of debt with China, and the only one that invoked ‘debt-trap diplomacy’ – Turkey – was concerned about its neighbors falling prey, not itself,” according to the report.
That said, Legarda noted that Beijing’s economic engagement is becoming overwhelmingly lopsided, with Chinese exports, investment and financing on the rise, while flows in the other direction fail to keep pace in almost every case.
According to the report, the poorest among these countries – Bangladesh, Kenya, and Nigeria – were more likely to show concern about the sustainability of trade deficits with China.
This contrasts with sentiments in richer countries such as Chile, the only country to see a growing trade surplus with China thanks to commodities exports, and Saudi Arabia, which is seeking to invest part of its sovereign wealth fund in China and is considering pricing some oil exports in Chinese yuan.
China as a geopolitical alternative
Another aspect examined in the paper were political ties.Beijing is working to expand its network of friends and partners by leveraging its position as an important economic partner and as a geopolitical alternative, particularly for smaller nations.
“The political, military and business elite perceptions of China are generally positive in these countries due to Beijing’s stance of non-interference in domestic politics, the opportunities provided by China’s large market and Beijing’s status as a possible alternative,” Legarda said.
“This is true even among Muslim-majority countries included in the study; China’s crackdown in Xinjiang seemed to play little or no role for most, but not all, countries in shaping perceptions or policies,” Legarda said.
A further takeaway from the report is that all these countries aren’t keen to pick a side, with their governments hoping to continue seeking out opportunities that arise from the Sino-U.S. rivalry.
“Contributors noted a general tendency to lean towards the United States as a security partner and China as an economic partner,” said Legarda, although the trend is moving toward expanding defense ties with Beijing, both in military-to-military cooperation and in arms imports.
“Some welcome China as a security partner to lessen reliance on the United States as a security provider,” she added, arguing that U.S. withdrawal from international commitments under the administration of former U.S. President Donald Trump has made some countries rethink their dependence on Washington.
That said, there are exceptions to those prevailing themes. Bangladesh, for example, already counts China as its top arms supplier, while Indonesia has regular friction with China over conflicting claims to the South China Sea. Moreover, transboundary water management and land ownership issues weigh on China-Kazakhstan relations.
An emerging ‘two-bloc world’
In terms of the Sino-U.S. rivalry, Legarda noted that views of China and the U.S. in most of the eight countries are quite balanced — further evidence of the fact that this is not an “either-or” situation for them.The countries will continue to try and avoid taking sides for as long as possible, the authors suggest, preferring to take advantage of the contentious relationship between Washington and Beijing to extract deals and beneficial conditions from both.
This has served many developing countries well so far, but the strategy may prove unsustainable in the long run, Legarda said.
“Growing geopolitical tensions, further spurred by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, are changing the picture for smaller nations around the world,” the analyst said.
“As U.S.-China relations continue to deteriorate and a sense of growing bipolarity takes hold, many of the countries covered in this study will find it difficult to maintain their balancing act.”
In the West, China is a rival. But for others, a new study says, Beijing is a partner.
Attitudes toward China and Sino-U.S. tensions in eight countries included in the report diverged widely from the mainstream narratives in developed liberal democracies.
