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India to be star performer; China to slow down in 2016: PwC

manojb

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NEW DELHI: India will be a "star performer" among emerging market economies and is expected to clock 7.7 per cent growth in 2016, outshining China for the second consecutive year, a PwC report says.

According to the global consultancy firm, of the emerging economies, only India is expected to grow faster in 2016 than its long-term average growth rate.

Among the seven emerging economies (China, India, Brazil, Mexico, Russia, Indonesia and Turkey), India will be a "star performer", while the Brazilian and Russian economies will contract and China will slow down, the report said.

"For the second year in a row, we expect India to grow faster than China, expanding by around 7.7 per cent in real terms," it said.

While the G7 economies (the US, the UK, Japan, Germany, France, Italy and Canada) are expected to grow at fastest rate since 2010, led by the first two, the E7 emerging economies will grow slower than their trend rate (but still faster than the G7).

"We expect the US recovery to switch into a higher gear in 2016, while the UK will also enjoy continued consumer-led growth. We should also see at least the beginning of the end of the Eurozone crisis. The once-mighty BRICs, however, will have another tough year in 2016, with the notable exception of India," PwC UK Chief Economist John Hawksworth said.

According to PwC, the Chinese GDP growth will ease to 6.5 per cent in 2016, as growth in manufacturing and exports will continue to slow gradually.

The report further noted that India will continue to reap the benefits of recent reforms.

"The cut in the policy rate by the Reserve Bank of India from 8 per cent to 6.75 per cent last year will help support consumption and investment growth this year," PwC said, adding that FDI in the country's "underdeveloped" manufacturing sectorshould also pick up as foreign investment caps have mostly been lifted.

Geopolitics, rather than economics, will be at the top of policymakers' agendas, the report noted.

The migrant crisis in Europe, the response of the international community to the crisis in the Middle East and the referendum on the fate of the UK's membership of the European Union, will be the three major geopolitical issues to dominate the news headlines.

Meanwhile, commodity prices are expected to remain lower for longer.

"This will be a good news for most businesses, households and policymakers in commodity importing economies, but a challenge for countries that rely heavily on commodity exports," the PwC report added
 
I hope PwC's economic analysis is better than its accounting and technology records!
 
Just to put things in perspective.. in the 90s when chinese economy was growing at break neck speeds, the FDI it attracted was ~USD 80 billion each year. Now that Indian economy is overtaking, the FDI each year it attracts is ~USD 35 billion.

The dynamics for India and China would be very different.

I hope PwC's economic analysis is better than its accounting and technology records!

PwC is the biggest accounting firm in US
 
Well it depends if Indian govt. remains committed to reforms and somehow corporate with the opposition to get the important bills passed. The govt should focus more on Industrial reforms which in turn will drive our exports.
Even a 8% growth is possible if everything goes fine.
 
I hope Saudi Arabia keeps pumping more oil and bring the crude oil prices down further. It's helping GOI save huge amount of money, which can be used for infrastructure development and social sector spending. This year's budget will have greater social sector spending I presume. Besides if GST Amendment bill gets passed then obviously it will help in improving the growth rate further.
 
Yes. Delloite, PwC, KPMG, E&Y are the big four when it comes to auditing services !

It used to be the big five with Arthur Anderson in the club too. Too bad they got caught with their pants down.

TBH all of them with the possible exception of Delloite are as crooked as they come with significant conflict of interest as they often land meaty consulting contracts as a reward for a lenient and frankly illegal audits.
 
It used to be the big five with Arthur Anderson in the club too. Too bad they got caught with their pants down.

TBH all of them with the possible exception of Delloite are as crooked as they come with significant conflict of interest as they often land meaty consulting contracts as a reward for a lenient and frankly illegal audits.

True. But it works across the chart. Would you believe it if I had told you that microsoft took one of their client teams to beach-side strip party in exchange for a contract ?

My friend who was in the competing firm (name undisclosed :D) had his childhood friend in the corporate banking division of the bank which financed the client's daily operations. He used his network to win the contract.
 
Well its not easy to keep growing so fast at China's current size. 6.7% is good enough for them.
 
We don't care.Indian just enjoy your warm weather and one day forced or unforced to give back Chinese territory now occupied by your army.
 
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Something's suspicious, indian officials should put an end to their practice of fudging india's economic data. Such thing will do more harm than good.
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We don't care.Indian just enjoy your warm weather and one day forced or unforced give to back Chinese territory now occupied by your army.
We will think about it when you free Tibet and xinjiang.
 

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