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Modi’s India: a case of mismatched priorities

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India needs to concentrate on cooperation instead of competition for the region to prosper

Zahid Ul HassanJuly 02, 2023


The writer is a retired Air Commodore from Pakistan Air Force and an expert in matters related to regional and global strategy, and security. He can be reached at xahid31@gmail.com

The presence of geopolitical challenges and socio-economic fault lines inhibit India’s global power ambitions. Geopolitical challenges include meeting the Western apologists’ assigned role of counterweight to China, perpetual confrontation with two nuclear neighbours having the danger of escalation, state-sponsored terrorism against Pakistan, poorly implemented nuclear security regime, unresolved border disputes with all its neighbours, separatist movements, the resurgence of Khalistan movement, continued illegal occupation of Indian held Jammu and Kashmir, and violation of United Nations Security Council resolutions for the right to self-determination to Kashmiris. Hindutva-driven religious extremism, caste and creed based social fissures, brutalisation of minorities, poverty-related social vulnerabilities and ever-increasing intolerance in society are a few of the socio-economic fault lines.
According to the United Nations Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) Report-2022, which measures poverty across three key dimensions of health, education and living standards, and uses 10 indicators (nutrition, child mortality, years of schooling, school attendance, sanitation, cooking fuel, drinking water, electricity, housing and assets), India had the highest number of people amongst all countries of the world who were living under the poverty line. There were 229 million (21.2%) people living in India who were poor and did not have access to these essential requirements while there were 413 million (34.4%) people who did not have access to essential requirements like nutrition, cooking fuel, sanitation and housing. During the pandemic, around 75 million people were added to this category. According to World Resources Institute’s estimation, a US based research organisation, India would require 3.2% and 6% of its GDP to provide drinking water and sanitation respectively, for its population by 2030.
Over the years, Indian political and military pundits have been using counterweight to China and two front war mantras to acquire Western military hardware and to justify heavy defence expenditure respectively. India’s unilateral revoking of Articles 370 and 35A in August 2019 not only brought China into the equation but also put the two front scenario in the limelight. However, this environment has been heavily costing the already poverty-stricken people of India. In regards, India increased its annual defence budget from USD 14.75 billion in 2002-03 to USD 76.6 billion in 2021-22 (520% increase with a total of USD 899.33 billion) and became the third highest defence spender in the world after the US and China. During the next few years, India plans to spend USD 130 billion to modernise its existing war machinery and procurement of newer military hardware. However, in reality, India is still far from getting any closer to its ambitions. Rather, the acquisition of diverse origins of military hardware has already created interoperability challenges besides posing serious employment and deployment limitations against nuclear armed neighbours. It may be pertinent to highlight that during this period, India did not encounter a major military conflict at its Western or Eastern borders; rather, Indian misadventures had to face humiliation from Pakistan and China in February 2019 (Operations Swift Retort) and June 2020 (Galwan Valley) respectively.
Superimposition of the Indian poverty profile over its defence spending reveals that there has been a clear case of poor understanding of the geopolitical environment, pursuit of over ambitious objectives, and setting of misplaced priorities on the part of the Indian political and military leadership. Excessive military spending and the prevalence of pockets of abject poverty have turned out to be two intensely intertwined phenomena for India.
A brief comparison of the prevailing economic environment reveals that the Indian desire to project itself as a competitor to China doesn’t hold solid ground. China is a global power and according to World Bank archives, it has foreign exchange reserves of USD 3.205 trillion, nominal GDP of USD 19.37 trillion and GDP per capita of USD 16,297. China is connecting the world (147 countries) and has already spent USD 01 trillion out of over USD 08 trillion Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), leading the world in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and over the last two decades, has pulled over 770 million people out of poverty. China’s annual defence budget is USD 225 billion for 2022-23 and it is indigenously producing the most modern military hardware.
Comparatively, India is a modest economy with USD 589 billion in foreign exchange reserves, nominal GDP of USD 3.74 trillion and a GDP per capita of USD 2,600. India has about 800 million people living under the poverty line, ever dependent upon eastern and western manufacturers for the provision and maintenance of its military hardware. In all the manifestations, there is no comparison between the two countries. The economic and technological differential between both countries is so huge that even if India uses all its worth and works tirelessly for decades, it may not be able to close the gap. Additionally, China is one of the major trade partners of India with a bilateral trade volume of USD 135.98 billion during 2022, overwhelmingly lopsided in favour of China with over USD 102 billion. It appears that because of mounting political pressure from Western apologists vis-a-vis economic interests with China, India has to review its role as a counterweight to China. In this regard, Mr Ashley Tellis, the Tata Chair for Strategic Affairs and a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, recently wrote that India can ill afford continued confrontation with China and “New Delhi won’t side with Washington against Beijing” in case of conflict between them.
Although India projects Pakistan as the other front of its two front mantras however, Pakistan is a peace-loving country and has amply exhibited its capability and resolve to defend itself against Indian aggression. India has not been successful in subduing Pakistan while aspirations of confronting China, may at best be termed as daydreaming. Such a contestation seems more unreal under the fact that as remarked by US Military analyst Donald Brennan of Hudson Institute, New York in 1962, nuclear wars must never be fought because they can never be won, it would only result in Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD).
A dispassionate assessment of the geopolitical environment suggests that one can choose friends but not neighbours, and maintaining confrontation with its neighbours is by no standards a cost benefit affair. It appears that India has been pushed into a disproportionate competition which it is not capable to win. Therefore, India needs to concentrate on cooperation instead of competition for the region to prosper and maintain strategic stability, which would be a win-win situation for all sides.
Published in The Express Tribune, July 2nd, 2023.
 
There were 229 million (21.2%) people living in India who were poor and did not have access to these essential requirements
UNDP report: The 2019-2021 data show that about 16.4٪ of India's population live in poverty. The UN in a press release on the report said that "in India, some 415 million people left multidimensional poverty in a 15-year period -- a historic change"

while there were 413 million (34.4%) people who did not have access to essential requirements like nutrition, cooking fuel, sanitation and housing
34.4 million people in India didn't have access to nutrition, cooking fuel, sanitation and housing

During the pandemic, around 75 million people were added to this category.

 
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China is a global power and according to World Bank archives, it has foreign exchange reserves of USD 3.205 trillion, nominal GDP of USD 19.37 trillion and GDP per capita of USD 16,297 be a win-win situation for all sides
The annual GDP of China totalled 21.02 trillion yuan ($17.94 trillion) in 2022, falling below the 5.5 per cent official target

China is connecting the world (147 countries) and has already spent USD 01 trillion out of over USD 08 trillion Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
 
In this regard, Mr Ashley Tellis, the Tata Chair for Strategic Affairs and a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, recently wrote that India can ill afford continued confrontation with China and “New Delhi won’t side with Washington against Beijing” in case of conflict between them
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Great article. India should learn from Pakistan on managing priorities and development. Let's all reach out to the retd. commodore and ask him on the development in DHA.

"ye muh aur masoor ki dal"

I would argue India is doing a fantastic job of getting what it wants and needs from the USA without commiting to anything or doing anything.

USA & Western "largesse" has allowed to add 3x Pakistan economies to its own over the last 35 years !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

It is a shame that the Pakistani military duffers/establishment ( Pakistan Army / ISI ) could not make the same leverage to get long lived things like economic benefit to improve Pakistan when the USA needed Pakistan against Russia. The matric-fail military duffers sold Pakistan cheap - dirt dirt cheap. India is NOT making that same mistake.

Indian's will run for the hills when the "foreplay" is over - we all know that. There will be no "main act" between the 3-way USA-India-China ensamble ... India is being a strategic "tease" and will leave the USA hanging for sure ... the Americans are "deseperate" and cannot see clearly right now - the red lust is overwhelming all sensible decision making processes right now ( we have all been there ;) )...
 
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India has 250 million Muslims and 800 million North Indians. How can it progress?
 
India has 250 million Muslims and 800 million North Indians. How can it progress?
Ouch! Even arab countries have progressed whilst being Muslim majority, at least in some ways.
 
India has 250 million Muslims and 800 million North Indians. How can it progress?
Simple.

Deport them&kill them&rape them and they too will eventually have to establish another Muslim state.

Then do the same for other minorities. Until purebred RSS's Hindus remain. LOL

But I'm afraid there will be similar practice among RSS's Hindus as this will become a habit.

Aaaand welcome to balkanized RSS's India!
 
Ouch! Even arab countries have progressed whilst being Muslim majority, at least in some ways.
He's a Lemur prolly from Karnataka
> Hates Muslims
> Hates North Indians
Passes Smell test.

Simple.

Deport them&kill them&rape them and they too will eventually have to establish another Muslim state.

Then do the same for other minorities. Until purebred RSS's Hindus remain. LOL

But I'm afraid there will be similar practice among RSS's Hindus as this will become a habit.

Aaaand welcome to balkanized RSS's India!
India ain't Lira that it'll collapse so easily...
 
Simple.

Deport them&kill them&rape them and they too will eventually have to establish another Muslim state.

Then do the same for other minorities. Until purebred RSS's Hindus remain. LOL

But I'm afraid there will be similar practice among RSS's Hindus as this will become a habit.

Aaaand welcome to balkanized RSS's India!
Can we get South Asian Muslims and North Indian Hindus to kill each other? Kill 2 birds with a single stone you know

Smell test.
North Indians smell like raai ka tel, piss, shit, sweat and maili ganga.

Hairy Punjabis are much worse than Bhaiyyas in that department. Grow their beard and don't get a haircut. Lice infested hair 🤮And Pajeets be like we are Gore Shore Nordic Aryans
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