Nuclear arms race between China and India

[Ras]

India is no where near China. First of all, the Indian tests fizzled and the thermonuclear weapon failed to go off. Only the fission component gave a satisfactory bang!
Second of all, the most Indians can get out of the weapon is a 200kt nuclear weapon, that too it's all theory! The 45kt TN nuke can be theoretically scaled up to 200kt, this is what the Indians claim. Ofcourse, how much of that claim is real no one knows. Given the fact that it was only one test, they won't have much data to work with to implement their "theory". And ofcourse, theory does not always mean it works practically.
Third and the most funny part, is the fact that, the theory to scale up the weapon to 200kt, only works if the 45kt weapon was successful. When that test itself was a failure, you can bet there aren't many, maybe even no, 200kt weapons in their arsenal.

China on the other hand already tested a MT yield weapon along with several kt yield ones. They have enough data to work with on their super computers to scale up their weapon if the need arises.

Also, a MT weapon is used for razing hardened military installations inside Mountains. NORAD of the U.S is a good example. The soviet union designed 20MT(Mega tonne) weapons for taking out installations like NORAD.
If a nuclear war breaks out, China can safely operate from their underground mountain HQs while the Indian 200kt safely detonates above, while the Indian command centers will be sitting ducks for the Chinese MT nukes.

In short, in case of a nuclear war, India is toast. This whole argument of Nuke Arms race with China is a wet dream of the Indians.

Not exactly...why would India target hardened Chinese command centers? Indian nuclear doctrine calls for civilian retaliation in case of a first strike on it. The Nagasaki bomb was only 21 KT and the Hiroshima one 13 KT...and the world saw what damage a nuke can do to a city.

This is a moot point as neither China nor India will ever use nuclear weapons especially against each other.

 

[F111]

Civilian Retaliation? That's a load of bull! No one writes such a doctrine. There are economic targets(cities) and military targets. You go after both of them, with priority to Military ones because of the obvious reason.

Maybe the Indians think that way, but not others. A nuclear war was very real during the cold war. The JFK was prepared for a full scale nuke war with the soviets when they blockaded cuba, remember that. The U.S citizens were prepared to sacrifice everything, their economy, their whole country, and took a bold courageous stand against the Soviets. I'm surprised Indians say such a thing that nukes are a moot point. Then again a country's psyche can be established by their history. You people didn't even win your independence, it was granted to you by the Labour Party of U.K. If Hitler's Third Reich was incharge instead of U.K, he'd have mowed you all down. I guess only a soft country like india where cowards run around holding demonstrations & lighting candles, but run away in the opposite direction of a confrontation will think along those lines. All self respecting bold nations prepare both their mind as well as the hardware for the worst possible scenario, while the pussified ones dwell in their own self created utopia.

The hiroshima nagasaki bombings were exaggerated to a huge degree. Besides, most of that city was made of bamboo and paper houses. So it's not surprising Imperial Japs ended up fried more than they would have.

 

[oceanx]

While no engineer, I don't particularly see any reason why command centres couldn't be buried deeper underground, farther into mountains, and fortified stronger so that they can withstand a MT device if they can be built to such a specification as to be able to withstand a 200KT explosion in the first place - 40, 50 years ago.

At any rate, it seems Yankees are ahead of everyone in devising even conventional bunker busting munitions ... so everything cannot be simply yield-dependent.

Secondly, it has been discussed in open Chinese sources that five 200KT air bursts are far, far more devastating than a single MT detonation over cities and population centres. This is partly the reason why the PRC has chosen the path of "warhead miniturization" just as the others have ...

This is not to say India has yet demonstrated the ability to "weaponize" a 200KT class device to fit into a delivery vehicle, let alone miniturize it for the current/future generations of Agni missles. So clearly they have work to do if that is the direction they are indeed headed.

Thirdly, the Cuban missile crisis was less about Americans demonstrating their resolve to fight a nuclear war than about the Soviets upping the ante to get Americans to withdraw their missiles from Turkish soil ...

There is no need to hyerventilate. I think a good proportion of Indians know that "Ahimsa" is only moral when one has the means to do harm but refrains from such.

Otherwise it's not much.

And India hasn't signed the CTBT for a reason ...

I for one think that for the forseeable future, indian nukes are the best guarantee to peace between China and India. It's not fool-proof ... but it's as good as it gets.

In the end, as usual, it's up to the people themselves.

 

[somebozo]

China is a proven responsible nuke player. India is a new player and likely to go out of control, especially when cornered by superior and experience PLA. Before China and India could nuke each other, USA is likely to interfer with stern action. Mostly likely taking control of nukes on India side by infiltrating small but potent force of commandos.

What ever happens, China will not be the first one to strike.

 

[Ras]

Civilian Retaliation? That's a load of bull! No one writes such a doctrine. There are economic targets(cities) and military targets. You go after both of them, with priority to Military ones because of the obvious reason.

Maybe the Indians think that way, but not others. A nuclear war was very real during the cold war. The JFK was prepared for a full scale nuke war with the soviets when they blockaded cuba, remember that. The U.S citizens were prepared to sacrifice everything, their economy, their whole country, and took a bold courageous stand against the Soviets. I'm surprised Indians say such a thing that nukes are a moot point. Then again a country's psyche can be established by their history. You people didn't even win your independence, it was granted to you by the Labour Party of U.K. If Hitler's Third Reich was incharge instead of U.K, he'd have mowed you all down. I guess only a soft country like india where cowards run around holding demonstrations & lighting candles, but run away in the opposite direction of a confrontation will think along those lines. All self respecting bold nations prepare both their mind as well as the hardware for the worst possible scenario, while the pussified ones dwell in their own self created utopia.

The hiroshima nagasaki bombings were exaggerated to a huge degree. Besides, most of that city was made of bamboo and paper houses. So it's not surprising Imperial Japs ended up fried more than they would have.

Your little rant aside...only the US and USSR can use nuclear weapons as part of a warfare option. All the rest have nuclear weapons as deterrent which easily explains why they have weapons in the hundreds than the thousands.

And when you have limited no of weapons you don't waste it trying to penetrate hardened bunkers you aim for maximum casualties which is why cities will be targeted.

And it is a moot point because China and India will never use nukes on each other...the nukes of both countries are strictly for deterrence. If China wanted to use nukes for war fighting..China would not have 200 weapons.It would be like 20,000 considering that the potential enemy is the US right now and it was the SU in the past.

 

[Ras]

China is a proven responsible nuke player. India is a new player and likely to go out of control, especially when cornered by superior and experience PLA. Before China and India could nuke each other, USA is likely to interfer with stern action. Mostly likely taking control of nukes on India side by infiltrating small but potent force of commandos.

What ever happens, China will not be the first one to strike.

Why is India a new player...India first exploded a nuke in 1974.
Plus the Himalayas are not conducive for a conventional invasion. India is not going to use nukes even if the entire NE is under Chinese occupation which in itself is going to be very difficult to sustain.

 

[bluefox]

China is a proven responsible nuke player. India is a new player and likely to go out of control, especially when cornered by superior and experience PLA. Before China and India could nuke each other, USA is likely to interfer with stern action. Mostly likely taking control of nukes on India side by infiltrating small but potent force of commandos.

What ever happens, China will not be the first one to strike.

OK US will get hold of india's nukes in case war B/w India and china??

And wat if a war will happen B/W India and Pakistan??.THen i guess in ur quoted post China should be replaced with India and India withe pakistan .

So if a war happens b/w india and pakistan the US will intervene and get hold of all the Nukes in pakistan ..is it so??

 

[Ras]

While no engineer, I don't particularly see any reason why command centres couldn't be buried deeper underground, farther into mountains, and fortified stronger so that they can withstand a MT device if they can be built to such a specification as to be able to withstand a 200KT explosion in the first place - 40, 50 years ago.

At any rate, it seems Yankees are ahead of everyone in devising even conventional bunker busting munitions ... so everything cannot be simply yield-dependent.

Secondly, it has been discussed in open Chinese sources that five 200KT air bursts are far, far more devastating than a single MT detonation over cities and population centres. This is partly the reason why the PRC has chosen the path of "warhead miniturization" just as the others have ...

This is not to say India has yet demonstrated the ability to "weaponize" a 200KT class device to fit into a delivery vehicle, let alone miniturize it for the current/future generations of Agni missles. So clearly they have work to do if that is the direction they are indeed headed.

Thirdly, the Cuban missile crisis was less about Americans demonstrating their resolve to fight a nuclear war than about the Soviets upping the ante to get Americans to withdraw their missiles from Turkish soil ...

There is no need to hyerventilate. I think a good proportion of Indians know that "Ahimsa" is only moral when one has the means to do harm but refrains from such.

Otherwise it's not much.

And India hasn't signed the CTBT for a reason ...

I for one think that for the forseeable future, indian nukes are the best guarantee to peace between China and India. It's not fool-proof ... but it's as good as it gets.

In the end, as usual, it's up to the people themselves.

Of course not..the need to develop their economies means by nature no military adventures are sought after.Chinese-India trade is also growing rapidly.Tensions means less money to be made all around.

And anyway there is not enough of a dispute between the 2 countries to go for war. From reports both are ready to accept the status quo as the boundary except for some minor details like the status of Tawang. This is what puts India on the spot as these areas are inhabited. Tawang is important from the Tibetian issue so maybe India can kick his "holiness" and his govt out of India in exchange for China to accept Indian control over Twang.

 

[oceanx]

... Tawang is important from the Tibetian issue so maybe India can kick his "holiness" and his govt out of India in exchange for China to accept Indian control over Twang.

Very, very bad idea. I for one don't mind one bit "his holiness" making his hollywood rounds from Dharamsala. Not at all in fact.

For one thing I have certain symapthies for him and the Tibetan elite who got shown the door. BTW, a little known fact was that Mao himself made the decision to let DL and his entourage leave Lhasa ... the PLA could've easily stopped the whole caravan ... and for this Stalin berated Mao ...

Even Mao had "sympathy" for him despite the "rebellion".

Look, after the Iranian revolution, even fellow "Muslim" countries hosted the Shah after he was shown the door, so honestly why shouldn't India give DL a piece of real estate to do his thing?

Besides, everyone who really took a look at the situation knows that the so-called NEFA region will sooner or later belong to Bangladesh - at least from a demographic point of view anyway ... you don't think the CCP planners have seen it?

My gut feeling is that the CCP most definitely does not want India to "kick out" DL - hell no ... they just want India to "manage him" ... After all, it could be worse ... DL and his people could all be in New Jersey.

Actually come to think of it, maybe New Jersey or New South Wales won't be so bad. We'll see.

 

[chauism]

Very, very bad idea. I for one don't mind one bit "his holiness" making his hollywood rounds from Dharamsala. Not at all in fact.

For one thing I have certain symapthies for him and the Tibetan elite who got shown the door. BTW, a little known fact was that Mao himself made the decision to let DL and his entourage leave Lhasa ... the PLA could've easily stopped the whole caravan ... and for this Stalin berated Mao ...

Even Mao had "sympathy" for him despite the "rebellion".

Look, after the Iranian revolution, even fellow "Muslim" countries hosted the Shah after he was shown the door, so honestly why shouldn't India give DL a piece of real estate to do his thing?

Besides, everyone who really took a look at the situation knows that the so-called NEFA region will sooner or later belong to Bangladesh - at least from a demographic point of view anyway ... you don't think the CCP planners have seen it?

My gut feeling is that the CCP most definitely does not want India to "kick out" DL - hell no ... they just want India to "manage him" ... After all, it could be worse ... DL and his people could all be in New Jersey.

Actually come to think of it, maybe New Jersey or New South Wales won't be so bad. We'll see.

Your idea for him to live in NJ or NSW is not that good either. Distance creates beauty. If DL is to live among westerners from day to day life, then he just become a ordinary old man who preach religious staff, and he won't have any mystic coating left with him along with westerners' romantic notion of "Shangri la" Tibet.

 

[oceanx]

BTW, I truly don't see the possibility of PRC fighting India over Tawang despite all the rhetoric. As Joe Shearer laid out elsewhere, the "war" of 1962 took place under very unique circumstances. It was a bit like the war of 1812 between the US and then British North America. It was a purposefully and logistically limited series of skirmish for explicit political aims.

I am no soldier - not even an arm chair "enthusiast". But reading some of the more candid and "informed" analysis on Chinese blogsphere, my impression is that if there is going to be the next war, it will be around the tanks, rockets, and fighter jets friendly country of Ladakh.

In other words, Kashmir.

If events from the past century was any guide, should the next war between China and India break out, it will be

1. a "big one" (relatively speaking compared to the last)
2. because one or both gets "dragged" into it by forces somewhat out of its control, and initiated elsewhere.

All wars between Britain and Germany over the last century took place because one or both had "alliance" obligations, either to the Austro-Hungarians, France, or Poland.

Today open military alliances ala NATO in a post-Cold War, increasingly nuclearized world is not in vogue. However, any large scale conflict between China and South East Asia, US can involve India. And if India is bent on doing Cold Start with Pakistan, then all bets are off with the PRC.

I personally don't at all blame Indian army staff for preparing for an eventuality of confronting both Pakistan and China. They are just doing their homework - except they tend to make an awful lot of noise just from doing a bit of homework.

Anyways, some of us frequent this forum for a reason - and Tibet is definitely not even among the top five.

 

[faithfulguy]

OK US will get hold of india's nukes in case war B/w India and china??

And wat if a war will happen B/W India and Pakistan??.THen i guess in ur quoted post China should be replaced with India and India withe pakistan .

So if a war happens b/w india and pakistan the US will intervene and get hold of all the Nukes in pakistan ..is it so??

We understand that India has nuclear capable missiles. But does India has any warheads small enough to fit on the missile and if so, what kind of war heads are they. I ready up some where that India has no capability of miniaturize the warheads so its relying on the planes to carry the nuclear bombs. But I do not believe that this is true so please point me out to the sources the describe Indian warhead on missiles. Thanks

 

[Join]

We understand that India has nuclear capable missiles. But does India has any warheads small enough to fit on the missile and if so, what kind of war heads are they. I ready up some where that India has no capability of miniaturize the warheads so its relying on the planes to carry the nuclear bombs. But I do not believe that this is true so please point me out to the sources the describe Indian warhead on missiles. Thanks

Well Indian Akash Missile can also be Nuke tipped, India can Miniaturize the Nuke to such an extent... Well I have never come across such News.....

Could you post the article from where you got this Info???

 

[jha]

We understand that India has nuclear capable missiles. But does India has any warheads small enough to fit on the missile and if so, what kind of war heads are they. I ready up some where that India has no capability of miniaturize the warheads so its relying on the planes to carry the nuclear bombs. But I do not believe that this is true so please point me out to the sources the describe Indian warhead on missiles. Thanks

BTW how many times have you asked same question...??
Can you miniaturize the no. of posts in which you asked the same question or, is it too big for that..

@indians..
no need to answer this person..he has got questions about india deep inside his head..or, he pretends to be so..

 

[faithfulguy]

Well Indian Akash Missile can also be Nuke tipped, India can Miniaturize the Nuke to such an extent... Well I have never come across such News.....

Could you post the article from where you got this Info???

That is good to know. Are the name of the nuclear warheads widely known?