old biased article Forbes, but says Japan will lead East Asia, not China, your Views?

[Mista]

Japan is not even a great power

Japan is shrinking demographically, but it's definitely still a great power. Greater Tokyo (Kanto region) with 40m people is as large as the UK or India.

GDP Nominal 2011:

 

[TaiShang]

Actually the more external pressure is applied on China the faster it develops technology and the greater the internal cohesion.

I'm truly grateful to have chance to read your analyses. Keep them coming, please

the new generation are rotten. They are spoiled by Western ideas of individual freedom and stupid ideology like democracy.

In Taiwan, we are on daily basis bombarded by Japanese shows on various Japanese stations that are available in all basic cable packages.

By simply watching their entertainment and reality shows, one call say the sorry state of the youth there.

Of course it is hard to make a generalization; there must be lots of hard working, serious young people. But, the Japanese media is not really geared toward making smart/visionary people.

Indeed, the youth in Japan needs a serious introspection. I guess they advanced so much socially and technologically that now they have nothing to look ahead. In sense, Japan is a test field for future society. Hope they will manage it well and China-Japan will make good economic-political partners and historical relatives.

As the rest of NEA goes the same direction of ultra-development as Japan, there are many lessons to learn from them, for good and for bad.

 

[Cybernetics]

The Chinese members told me about the "Anime generation" of Japan. The Chinese members also told me that the Japanese lost their fighting spirit.

Japanese are the least likely to fight for their country out of the countries on the list due to pacifist policies set post-WW2 by USA, and also derive from a sense of isolationism in part due to geography. That doesn't mean they aren't capable in waging a limited war or deploy troops overseas (they have overseas bases), they are just intrinsically much less motivated for conflict and that affects their long term decision making. Individually Japanese youth are more preoccupied with their own lives to care about politics or national matters that much, when compared to Chinese and Koreans. Japan had been changing prime minsters every year from 2007-2012. Abe was the first prime minster in a while to have stayed for such a long time. Japan in fact has no term limits for its prime minsters.

Japan as a nation had been pacified, they also lack a cohesive deep state. It had been mostly dismantled, though it is possible they rebuild such a system with various right leaning institutions under a favourable environment. The funny thing is that some hawks in the PLA are not against (some even give approval to) Japanese nationalism, it is a long term play. The lack of individual motivation just lessens the volunteer spirit and social uproar during times of crisis but due to Japan being a highly organised society, even pacified people can be mobilised and utilised(motivation or morale might be lacking).

Chinese individually are much more motivated to volunteer for individual sacrifice during times of crisis without being mobilised by the state. Immediately after the Wenchuan Earthquake in 2008 that killed more than 80,000 people, highways and roads to the damaged sites were blocked and or jammed for hundreds of km by contractors who own heavy machinery or vehicles hurrying to save people. The state had to tell them to go home so that the government can organise the situation. Same thing with the Donglang tensions in 2017. Every city in China was organised to donate blood and people lined up without being explicitly told what it was for to not upset any nations. The news might tell you other stories, I base my supporting evidence on personal experience. Many young people made it a trend to donate blood to mobilise society. Chinese are not interested in fighting most wars but in certain situations are willing to sacrifice nearly all individual luxuries. Yes, Chinese people like materialism today but such a one dimensional understanding can be too simple. Under certain conditions, most Chinese from young to old will willingly donate blood and even personal assets (most likely buy war bonds) that they would otherwise protect vigilantly. Funding won't be an issue, even if the state can't afford it, technology would be the only limiting factor. Some might think this is an exaggeration, but after talking many wealthy Chinese I don't think this is the case. I was a bit surprised to hear them say such things. If they think the existence of China is under crisis, no luxuries and personal assets have any meaning anymore.

I'm truly grateful to have chance to read your analyses. Keep them coming, please

Thank you TaiShang. Sorry I've been pre-occupied recently, thus the late reply to some of your tags. Typing and editing on the phone isn't convenient.

 

[beijingwalker]

Japan's technology used to be very advanced, but now nothing new comes out of Japan anymore, Japan lost its edges to new emerging technological giants springing up all across China.

China's success is largely based on manufacturing, so there is a huge overlap between China and Japan's economic structure, the world market doesn't change much, so one's rise in the share definitely means a fall of another. Simple equation.

China's sight is on US, Japan is falling far and farther behind, no point looking back to see how Japan fares, China should always have the eyes fixed on the prize, overtaking US in a decade.

 

[sweetgrape]

China are always degraded deliberately by western society, it is not by its media, but I think at most of western and other China hater's heart, normal people, don't want China lead Asia, but choose to Japan.

Very simple, Best Japan can't gain a equal footing with western, let alone overtake western hegemony and dominance on the world, but China can, not even in best time of China. Not only western elite enjoy the benefit from the dominace on the world, normal western too.

Japan perform well, you like talking about their technology advantage, but this not their advantage over Chinese, Chinese just had lagged behind the world too much, as we wake and develop, absolutely, Chinese can perform much better than Japanese, they know that.

 

[ohmrlobalobayeh]

recovering/purchasing a coastline in the northeast is a must. No revitalization can ever take place

 

[beijingwalker]

A big part of the Japanese culture: written language, clothing, architecture, religion, social ethics...are basically Chinese.

 

[大汉奸柳传志]

Undisputable leader of Asia in Anime and p0rn production

 

[Actuary]

Neither China nor Japan will lead East Asia. East Asia had a good run with all that copying they've done for the past few centuries, but with not much else to copy from the west, their economies are stagnating and faltering. Soon they will all be bitches to the US.

I'd say at this point, North Korea is leading East Asia. At least they're on every news channel 5 times a week whenever Kim Jong Un farts. All Kim has to do is make a threat and the other nations surrender and offer money to them. The other Asian countries are irrelevant.

 

[Kai Liu]

Neither China nor Japan will lead East Asia. East Asia had a good run with all that copying they've done for the past few centuries, but with not much else to copy from the west, their economies are stagnating and faltering. Soon they will all be bitches to the US.

Empty talk again without anything to support.

 

[terranMarine]

Neither China nor Japan will lead East Asia. East Asia had a good run with all that copying they've done for the past few centuries, but with not much else to copy from the west, their economies are stagnating and faltering. Soon they will all be bitches to the US.

That means no hope for Vietnam and India?

 

[Suika]

Japanese are the least likely to fight for their country out of the countries on the list due to pacifist policies set post-WW2 by USA, and also derive from a sense of isolationism in part due to geography. That doesn't mean they aren't capable in waging a limited war or deploy troops overseas (they have overseas bases), they are just intrinsically much less motivated for conflict and that affects their long term decision making. Individually Japanese youth are more preoccupied with their own lives to care about politics or national matters that much, when compared to Chinese and Koreans. Japan had been changing prime minsters every year from 2007-2012. Abe was the first prime minster in a while to have stayed for such a long time. Japan in fact has no term limits for its prime minsters.

Japan as a nation had been pacified, they also lack a cohesive deep state. It had been mostly dismantled, though it is possible they rebuild such a system with various right leaning institutions under a favourable environment. The funny thing is that some hawks in the PLA are not against (some even give approval to) Japanese nationalism, it is a long term play. The lack of individual motivation just lessens the volunteer spirit and social uproar during times of crisis but due to Japan being a highly organised society, even pacified people can be mobilised and utilised(motivation or morale might be lacking).

Chinese individually are much more motivated to volunteer for individual sacrifice during times of crisis without being mobilised by the state. Immediately after the Wenchuan Earthquake in 2008 that killed more than 80,000 people, highways and roads to the damaged sites were blocked and or jammed for hundreds of km by contractors who own heavy machinery or vehicles hurrying to save people. The state had to tell them to go home so that the government can organise the situation. Same thing with the Donglang tensions in 2017. Every city in China was organised to donate blood and people lined up without being explicitly told what it was for to not upset any nations. The news might tell you other stories, I base my supporting evidence on personal experience. Many young people made it a trend to donate blood to mobilise society. Chinese are not interested in fighting most wars but in certain situations are willing to sacrifice nearly all individual luxuries. Yes, Chinese people like materialism today but such a one dimensional understanding can be too simple. Under certain conditions, most Chinese from young to old will willingly donate blood and even personal assets (most likely buy war bonds) that they would otherwise protect vigilantly. Funding won't be an issue, even if the state can't afford it, technology would be the only limiting factor. Some might think this is an exaggeration, but after talking many wealthy Chinese I don't think this is the case. I was a bit surprised to hear them say such things. If they think the existence of China is under crisis, no luxuries and personal assets have any meaning anymore.

Thank you TaiShang. Sorry I've been pre-occupied recently, thus the late reply to some of your tags. Typing and editing on the phone isn't convenient.

Some errors of your post.

First, there are term limits for the Prime Ministers. It has been a limit of only 2 terms for a long term, each term being three years. It was increased to 3 terms last year. So total length now possible is 9 years.

Your analysis on Japan's will to fight is missing some critical points. With the pacifist's constitution, there was no need for Japan to maintain a will to fight. It also meant that Japanese soldiers could not shoot weapons, even on UN peace keeping missions. And it also meant no exports of major military equipment. So no upkeep in will was maintained and materialism, business, entertainment, took priority and any talk of war fighting would be counter productive to that.

But things are now changing because Japan has an interest to safe guard Taiwan's defense for the sake geographical strategic posturing. Interest to keep the SCS free from ownership. And the recently signed CPTPP will need a security insurance, so without the US, Japan gains further strategic importance in that. And of course the uncertainty of North Korea, such as launching the missiles over japan twice last year. All these new realities are more recent than what is reflected in the 2015 survey. So to some extent, what your say is true but your argument is 3 years late. A lot has happened in three years.

So some actions that reflect that change.. in the 2014, the constitution was reinterpreted to to enable "collective self-defense", new defense laws on that concept were passed in 2015, and the laws have entered into effect in 2016. Since then, logistics and ammunition exchange treaties with various countries like the US, Australia, the UK, have been signed. Laws now enable Japanese soldiers the ability to fire weapons during UN PKO. Japan now seeks to export military weapons, the biggest examples gave been the sub bid to Australia and the US-2 to India. There are considering handing down P-3Cs to ASEAN countries and are looking to export radars to Thailand. They have already donated patrol boats to Vietnam, the Philippines, and Palau. And have donated Patrol aircraft to the Philippines with considering donating more. A new amphibious rapid deployment brigade has been in formulation in the last few years, receiving training from the USMC, and that brigade will go live either this month or next. For amphibious vehicles, they have already ordered and payed for about 50 AAV7s, so those will be coming in soon.

It should also be noted that a lot of military tech is Japanese developed. Yes there are some US examples. F-35A, F-35B, the Osprey, and patriot missiles. People debate about the F-35, I'm not going into it. Although, China has yet to come close to deploying something like the Osprey.

Japan makes their own navy surface ships and submarines, their own ground vehicles such as tanks, APCs, they are developing a new amphibious assault vehicle. Two new aircraft types have recently entered service, the P-1 maritime patrol aircraft and the C-2 transport aircraft, both major improvements over previous types.

There are two main arguments often presented from the China's side. Both are extreme points, which to my suggest an agenda driven argument rather than just saying how things just are. One is the whole Japan is evil and "re-militarizing". The other one is the one that seems to be in fashion these days, such as your post "Japan has no will power". Well which ever the user pick ups on, the conclusion is the same "endorse the always correct super big China".

Something interesting to add is that I was listening to a talk, and one former JMSDF admiral said that even though there seems to be an attempt by both China and Japan to improve relations, it doesn't go from Japan changing or bending its stance on several issues. But rather that Japan has always maintained its position regarding things like the Snekaku islands.

 

[Yaseen1]

if china wants to dominate u.s they should get control of international market such as setting prices of oil gold and other natural resouces.u.s has advantage on china only due to their influence and control over market

 

[Suika]

A big part of the Japanese culture: written language, clothing, architecture, religion, social ethics...are basically Chinese.

You're in troll mode again.

Japanese uses the Chinese characters. But this point probably shouldn't be taken so far. Afterall, English, French, German, and Italian, all use the roman letters that have similar phonetic function and some vocabulary being similar. Japanese is as different from Chinese as German is to English.

Clothing, architecture, and some religion share some common roots. But you are again pushing a sense of "cultural ownership" with your implication. Japan is also a democracy and has a free internet. Those two factors alone will result in a different culture.

I just plain disagree with social ethics. Chinese are more open in thinking and more direct when wanted to get something done. Japanese are far more reserved.

 

[bbccdd1470]

First, there are term limits for the Prime Ministers. It has been a limit of only 2 terms for a long term, each term being three years. It was increased to 3 terms last year. So total length now possible is 9 years.

If I remember right from the news, Prime Minister of Japan has no term limits. But the Leader of the Party has term limit and this was exactly what Abe changed last year. Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong.