Pakistan Economic Growth rate Watch Thread

[MilSpec]

While I don't fully understand these calculations either. But just as an example take your economy, it grew from $477 billion to $1708 billion between 2000 and 2010, adding $1200 billion plus in GDP size, without growing at double digit rate. I think it has something to do with expansion of money supply, exchange rate, real GDP growth and so forth.

Having said that, Pakistan becoming $2 trillion GDP in the next 12 years is not in the realm of possibility. If we do really good we might become a trillion plus economy though.

I am not an economist either, I am just responding to a 2 trillion dollar prediction by @Viper0011. in 12 years, hoping to understand how he has come to the calculations. On another thread he was lambasting some other member about basic economic principles, I am just trying to understand those "basic economic principles" that he was referring to which puts pakistani economy at 2 trillion dollars.

 

[Last Samuri]

CANT COMPARE indian economic model with Pakistan.

To completely different scenarios.

The Indians have advantages that Pakistanis just do not possess.

1. Poltically Pakistan struggles with FDI china alone can not carry you to $1 trillion
2. Pakistan lack the billionaires that drive employment technology investment . india china usa full of billionaires
3. India produces ten x the nos of graduates in engineering and science each year
4. india,s growth is internal driven by 300 million middle class Indians no such middle class exists in Pakistan
5. india is a trading nation massive coastlines merchant navy and india has always been a great trading culture even 500 years ago.
6. A nation run by generals is more likely to be a North Korea rather than south korea. . You cant have your cake and eat it. ...
Your democratic leaders are answerable to the generals.

You will never be a economic power

 

[Viper0011.]

Do not question the brilliant member's views presented here.... Just bask in the glorious influx of the hard knowledge he will lay down on ignorant uneducated folks like us.

I am hoping to learn the secret of 19% sustained average growth rate for 12 years... don't ruin it for me.

Hey look, you went to sleep for a few days, then talked to a few buddies and came back from some research center in India with your cousins all together as one team. Great national team work. Is Modi a part of your team too???

Just like you read my many posts that you and your cousins are referring to, AND the initial post on that "forecast report" you posted, that showed Pakistan's economy actually DECLINING over the years (LOL), I am allowed to make predictions too. So just like everything else, if Indians do something, its coming from the Wisdom you guys had 6000 years ago from the "Vedic" times where your ancestors drove Ferraris which flew inter galaxy. But if an American, Chinese, Taiwanese or a Russian guy writes a prediction not meeting your national and personal agenda, that's always a question mark.

To sum it up, you are freely allowed to call my prediction a fukked up forecast and a response to a fukked up crappy forecast you posted. How's that??? to the world of forecasts.

On the other hand, I'd suggest to watch the next 12-18 years. Pakistani economy might surprise you big times . Just like anyone inside and outside of India, never thought you'd be in top 10 economies just 20 years ago, you wouldn't believe Pakistan could grow as much too, to be in the top 10 economies in the next 20 years. But its highly possible if they do everything right. Again, these things only time will tell. You waited 20 years for India to be where it is today. How about you do the SAME for Pakistan and we discuss this after it has the time I am forecasting to do what it needs to. If its not there in 20 years, my forecast was wrong. If it does get there, my forecast was right. End of the story and the topic. Tell your cousins to all go to Taj mahal and chill out.

CANT COMPARE indian economic model with Pakistan.
You will never be a economic power

1) No one is comparing Indian economy to Pakistan. Even a ten year old child reading news would know that. But that doesn't mean India and Pakistan won't compete for business. Watch how the two labor markets will compete for educated labor related business in the few years. But that doesn't mean Pakistan's economy will be a comparison, its a stupid thing to even write. A 5 times more populated country will ALWAYS have a much bigger economy.

2) Pakistan is going to be in the top 15 and then in the top 10 economic powers. You, your cousins blowing bombs in Pakistan or training Baluchis and Al-Qada for terrorism inside Pakistan, can't stop it. You'll just have to watch and feel the pain in your rear.
And, India will NEVER be a super power. At best, it'll be a soup-o-powa !!

 

[Icewolf]

Dear sir,

OK...

Let me categorically say that I agree with your projections. I am not claiming to be an economic expert, you seem to be lambasting people for lack of understanding of "basic economic principles", So I would love to understand the basic economic principle's you have used to derive the projections.

I am hoping to see the actual growth rate projection across the 12 years as originally claimed which in the last post became a 10-20 years (which has a 100% margin in timeline stated - which is confusing) As a benefit of the doubt please do stick to 10, 12 or 20 years instead of vague timelines as we are dealing with specifics.

Please now tell me, which country in the history of world has sustained 19% average growth rate over last 12 years.



Also how many trillion dollars has the subject country added in the last 60 years? Your own words are "it's piece of cake for pakistan to cross to 2 trillion dollars in next 10-12 years" which your are back tracking to 10-20 years now.

For a 2 trillion dollar economy in 12 years, my basic calculations are as follows , are the following projections conistent with yours?
View attachment 231558

Can you please aslo post any projections by any economists which strengthen your numbers?





View attachment 231553

World Development Indicators-Google Public Data Explorer


Now previously you stated Pakistan adding 1750 Billion to their economy

Hey MilSpec, please explain this then

India GDP was 476.6 billion dollars in the year 2000 yet it became 1.7 trillion in 2010

I calculated it by GDP growth rate through those ten years and India's GDP should have only been 983 billion dollars by 2010.

Explain this oh great mathematician. You have simply no idea of how fast an economy grows and what is difference between nominal and real GDP growth

2000

476 3.80%

2001

498.848 4.80%

2002

517.804224 3.80%

2003

558.7107577 7.90%

2004

602.8489076 7.90%

2005

658.913856 9.30%

2006

720.1928446 9.30%

2007

790.7717433 9.80%

2008

821.6118413 3.90%

2009

891.4488478 8.50%

2010

983.2680792 10.30%






I did the same for China as well. China's GDP was 5.931 trillion in 2010. Yet its 3.2 trillion when actually calculating it.. GASP!! must be a conspiracy right?


2000

1.198 8.40%

2001

1.297434 8.30%

2002

1.415500494 9.10%

2003

1.557050543 10%

2004

1.714312648 10.10%

2005

1.908029978 11.30%

2006

2.150349785 12.70%

2007

2.455699454 14.20%

2008

2.691446602 9.60%

2009

2.939059689 9.20%

2010

3.244721897 10.40%

Hey look, you went to sleep for a few days, then talked to a few buddies and came back from some research center in India with your cousins all together as one team. Great national team work. Is Modi a part of your team too???

Just like you read my many posts that you and your cousins are referring to, AND the initial post on that "forecast report" you posted, that showed Pakistan's economy actually DECLINING over the years (LOL), I am allowed to make predictions too. So just like everything else, if Indians do something, its coming from the Wisdom you guys had 6000 years ago from the "Vedic" times where your ancestors drove Ferraris which flew inter galaxy. But if an American, Chinese, Taiwanese or a Russian guy writes a prediction not meeting your national and personal agenda, that's always a question mark.

To sum it up, you are freely allowed to call my prediction a fukked up forecast and a response to a fukked up crappy forecast you posted. How's that??? to the world of forecasts.

On the other hand, I'd suggest to watch the next 12-18 years. Pakistani economy might surprise you big times . Just like anyone inside and outside of India, never thought you'd be in top 10 economies just 20 years ago, you wouldn't believe Pakistan could grow as much too, to be in the top 10 economies in the next 20 years. But its highly possible if they do everything right. Again, these things only time will tell. You waited 20 years for India to be where it is today. How about you do the SAME for Pakistan and we discuss this after it has the time I am forecasting to do what it needs to. If its not there in 20 years, my forecast was wrong. If it does get there, my forecast was right. End of the story and the topic. Tell your cousins to all go to Taj mahal and chill out.



1) No one is comparing Indian economy to Pakistan. Even a ten year old child reading news would know that. But that doesn't mean India and Pakistan won't compete for business. Watch how the two labor markets will compete for educated labor related business in the few years. But that doesn't mean Pakistan's economy will be a comparison, its a stupid thing to even write. A 5 times more populated country will ALWAYS have a much bigger economy.

2) Pakistan is going to be in the top 15 and then in the top 10 economic powers. You, your cousins blowing bombs in Pakistan or training Baluchis and Al-Qada for terrorism inside Pakistan, can't stop it. You'll just have to watch and feel the pain in your rear.
And, India will NEVER be a super power. At best, it'll be a soup-o-powa !!

Don't worry about that indian, he really doesn't know what he's talking about, he's made that quite clear. Vedic math is the only class he took in tertiary

 

[MilSpec]

Hey look, you went to sleep for a few days, then talked to a few buddies and came back from some research center in India with your cousins all together as one team. Great national team work. Is Modi a part of your team too???

Just like you read my many posts that you and your cousins are referring to, AND the initial post on that "forecast report" you posted, that showed Pakistan's economy actually DECLINING over the years (LOL), I am allowed to make predictions too. So just like everything else, if Indians do something, its coming from the Wisdom you guys had 6000 years ago from the "Vedic" times where your ancestors drove Ferraris which flew inter galaxy. But if an American, Chinese, Taiwanese or a Russian guy writes a prediction not meeting your national and personal agenda, that's always a question mark.

To sum it up, you are freely allowed to call my prediction a fukked up forecast and a response to a fukked up crappy forecast you posted. How's that??? to the world of forecasts.

On the other hand, I'd suggest to watch the next 12-18 years. Pakistani economy might surprise you big times . Just like anyone inside and outside of India, never thought you'd be in top 10 economies just 20 years ago, you wouldn't believe Pakistan could grow as much too, to be in the top 10 economies in the next 20 years. But its highly possible if they do everything right. Again, these things only time will tell. You waited 20 years for India to be where it is today. How about you do the SAME for Pakistan and we discuss this after it has the time I am forecasting to do what it needs to. If its not there in 20 years, my forecast was wrong. If it does get there, my forecast was right. End of the story and the topic. Tell your cousin to all go to Taj mahal and chill out.

Dear sir,
I did not post any forecast, just pointed you to the one posted by another member and asked your opinion on it.

If you do look a the time stamp on post #43 you would realize, I had inquire about your fascinating predictions last week.

I am not sure why you are blaberring like a mad man about cousins, modi, vedic ferrari, russian, taiwanese, tajmahal and other BS.

Your words were the following:
"If you can't comprehend basics of strategy and economy, you should not write back spiting stupidity. You can write down my words today and you'll feel butt pain in the next 10-12 years when Pakistani economy crosses 2 trillion. Which I think is a piece of cake as long as the country's political system works, democracy stays and its leaders continue to do what they are doing now."

All I asked was how do you estimate this 2 trillion dollars and you went the deep end.... If you can't validate your views on any logic then you are more than welcome to say it's your wishful thinking. No harm in that. But if you get sanctimonious on issues that you can barely comprehend, be ready to be kicked in the teeth as always.

regards.

 

[MilSpec]

Hey MilSpec, please explain this then

India GDP was 476.6 billion dollars in the year 2000 yet it became 1.7 trillion in 2010

I calculated it by GDP growth rate through those ten years and India's GDP should have only been 983 billion dollars by 2010.

Explain this oh great mathematician. You have simply no idea of how fast an economy grows and what is difference between nominal and real GDP growth

2000

476 3.80%

2001

498.848 4.80%

2002

517.804224 3.80%

2003

558.7107577 7.90%

2004

602.8489076 7.90%

2005

658.913856 9.30%

2006

720.1928446 9.30%

2007

790.7717433 9.80%

2008

821.6118413 3.90%

2009

891.4488478 8.50%

2010

983.2680792 10.30%






I did the same for China as well. China's GDP was 5.931 trillion in 2010. Yet its 3.2 trillion when actually calculating it.. GASP!! must be a conspiracy right?


2000

1.198 8.40%

2001

1.297434 8.30%

2002

1.415500494 9.10%

2003

1.557050543 10%

2004

1.714312648 10.10%

2005

1.908029978 11.30%

2006

2.150349785 12.70%

2007

2.455699454 14.20%

2008

2.691446602 9.60%

2009

2.939059689 9.20%

2010

3.244721897 10.40%




Don't worry about that indian, he really doesn't know what he's talking about, he's made that quite clear. Vedic math is the only class he took in tertiary

Did I make any forecasts?

The esteemed member here says that pakistan will add 1750 billion dollars in 12 years, I am just asking how. I am not an economist, and thus I don't make any GDP predictions.

If you want to take a crack at it, feel free to show me how pakistan will become a 2 trillion dollars in 12 years.

As far as my math skills are concerned, dear sir, rest assured the are ample enough to carry a discussion.

thanks

I REALLY want to own a Vedic Ferrari. I am sure, as the world has become less educated and technologically advance compared to the Vedic times, I won't be able to charge its batteries, or learn to manage its super sophisticated controls back from the Vedic times!!! But hey, I'd at least have it. What an honor!

I am not sure, why are you getting all defesive on a simple question.
You are saying pakistan will add 1750 billion dollars in 12 years to it's economy, All I am asking is how?
that's it.
You were lambasting some other member about basic economics, I thought you would explain this estimate in basic economics so layman like me can understand.

 

[Icewolf]

Did I make any forecasts?

The esteemed member here says that pakistan will add 1750 billion dollars in 12 years, I am just asking how. I am not an economist.

If you want to take a crack at it, feel free to show me how pakistan will become a 2 trillion dollars in 12 years.

As far as my math skills are concerned, dear sir, rest assured the are ample enough to carry a discussion.

thanks

As @Bilal. said, it has "to do with expansion of money supply, exchange rate, real GDP growth and so forth."

You can't simply put percentages and a GDP number in a flow chart and claim that is what it will be in 20 years.

Indias GDP was off almost 700 billion due to that and China's was off 2.7 trillion dollars.

 

[MilSpec]

As @Bilal. said, it has "to do with expansion of money supply, exchange rate, real GDP growth and so forth."

You can't simply put percentages and a GDP number in a flow chart and claim that is what it will be in 20 years.

Indias GDP was off almost 700 billion due to that and China's was off 2.7 trillion dollars.

Again, if you could focus on the query... I haven't claimed anything... it your dear @Viper0011. who is doing all the claiming.

Claim> Pakistan Economy = 2 trillion in 12 year

Question> Please explain how?

that's it, I am not inquiring about India, china, sweeden or Sudan. My simple query is if you or the other gentleman are standing behind the claim, please explain how.

If you are claiming some thing it should originate from some substance, right? You cannot just say just becuase UK grew at a certain rate and it's currency rate followed certain trends... then those projections must be true for Afghanistan or bolivia.

The question is quite simple? just present the rationale behind the claim that you are standing.

 

[Icewolf]

Again, if you could focus on the query... I haven't claimed anything... it your dear @Viper0011. who is doing all the claiming.

Claim> Pakistan Economy = 2 trillion in 12 year

Question> Please explain how?

that's it, I am not inquiring about India, china, sweeden or Sudan. My simple query is if you or the other gentleman are standing behind the claim, please explain how.

If you are claiming some thing it should originate from some substance, right? You cannot just say just becuase UK grew at a certain rate and it's currency rate followed certain trends... then those projections must be true for Afghanistan or bolivia.

The question is quite simple? just present the rationale behind the claim that you are standing.

The simple answer to that is that we are expecting mega growth in Pakistan after the late 2010s because of load shedding ending, new Gwadar port, new CPEC, no terrorism, democratic engine, and all around better governance. Now I agree 2 trillion might or might no be a little off but the growth will be quite massive.

 

[Menace2Society]

Full power coverage will push growth to 6% alone.

Growth will come but how much. Need to work on FDI and forming strong manufacturing base to give economy best chance of growing at its peak.

 

[MilSpec]

The simple answer to that is that we are expecting mega growth in Pakistan after the late 2010s because of load shedding ending, new Gwadar port, new CPEC, no terrorism, democratic engine, and all around better governance. Now I agree 2 trillion might or might no be a little off but the growth will be quite massive.

And I wouldn't question that, that is a fair estimate.

But if you say that just because India had certain growth and thus Pakistan will be at 2 trillion in 12 years and that will be a piece of cake... I will question that... thats that.

 

[Bilal.]

I am not an economist either, I am just responding to a 2 trillion dollar prediction by @Viper0011. in 12 years, hoping to understand how he has come to the calculations. On another thread he was lambasting some other member about basic economic principles, I am just trying to understand those "basic economic principles" that he was referring to which puts pakistani economy at 2 trillion dollars.

My reply was to explain that only real GDP growth rate is not and should not be taken as the sole factor in projecting the nominal GDP size of a country. Meaning 19% real gdp growth rate argument that you presented is not accurate or sound in it's logic.

 

[Viper0011.]

Did I make any forecasts?

The esteemed member here says that pakistan will add 1750 billion dollars in 12 years, I am just asking how. I am not an economist, and thus I don't make any GDP predictions.

I am not sure, why are you getting all defesive on a simple question..

You can play stupid somewhere else like I said. They weren't that sharp in the Vedic times and they aren't today either. So please, play this act somewhere else where people don't know your kind!

No one's getting defensive here, I am a believer in all offense, just like the US military. So you'll see that everywhere. As far as your comments above are concerned, if you go back to where it started, you had invited me to comment on a report you published that showed Pakistan's GDP declining over the years and that was their "forecast". Well, I gave you mine, whether I told you $ 1750 billion or 2000 Billion......its a forecast. Instead of stupid questioning it like a 14 year old child, how about you wait for all those years given in my forecast, and mention it. Just like your forecast never stated how a growing country's GDP would decline after a few years, my forecast doesn't have to tell you how the GDP will grow either. 15-18 years from now, come back and tell me where Pakistani economy is. Either my forecast is right, or I'd revise my forecast......that's how forecasts work. Ever see a weather channel? Try learning about forecast from there as starters and then get into bigger and more serious stuff like the economy!

All I asked was how do you estimate this 2 trillion dollars and you went the deep end.... If you can't validate your views on any logic then you are more than welcome to say it's your wishful thinking. No harm in that. But if you get sanctimonious on issues that you can barely comprehend, be ready to be kicked in the teeth as always.

Its a forecast. Wait till 15-20 years and then come write these paragraph of yours. If its too difficult for you to understand, go read up on what a forecast is. You can continue to waste your Vedic wisdom from 6000 years ago or you can act like you live in 2015 and learn to wait for the years given in my forecast.

 

[MilSpec]

My reply was to explain that only real GDP growth rate is not and should not be taken as the sole factor in projecting the nominal GDP size of a country. Meaning 19% real gdp growth rate argument that you presented is not accurate or sound in it's logic.

I said 19% sustained average growth rate, not real gdp growth rate.

 

[de_xtr]

I REALLY want to own a Vedic Ferrari. I am sure, as the world has become less educated and technologically advance compared to the Vedic times, I won't be able to charge its batteries, or learn to manage its super sophisticated controls back from the Vedic times!!! But hey, I'd at least have it. What an honor!

I have noticed that some Pakistanis tend to crack these Vedic jokes, as if it is a matter of some sort of achievement. Well, don't you think the joke is on you too ? Some of the root of the Vedas can be traced back to present day Pakistan.
Also, so far as education is concerned, India is doing far better than Pakistan on that front too. So what is this joke really about ?