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PTI Dharna Politics and Possible Scenarios

Well, very interesting scenario indeed, A leader should have ability to take care of words in the manners which should be acceptable for people. There are sufficient evidences, talk shows, news where PIT leader Imran Khan accepted any initiative of forming judicial commission over allegedly rigging complaints, late enough but right enough from PMLN government's announcement to form Judicial commission of SCP, now it is out of understanding the continuation of LM which tells us hidden agenda.

Not a single PTI member couldn't answer the question 'Either demand of PM's resignation constitutional?
 
1. Here is answer to one of your questions about rigging and government response:
Ten truths about electoral rigging
By Zahid F. Ebrahim
Published: August 4, 2014

The article above you posted is written by none other than Ex ECP Chariman's son who failed to defend his father's working. @Jazzbot posted a link in the rebuttal of this article. And here's a comment on that same article you posted and I quote.

Apart from that rebuttal... here's a comment posted on the article and I quote... "A lop-sided article – totally & deliberately Pro-PML – each point is geared to put down PTI No mention of Returning Officers? PTI’s entire argument is against RO’s No mention of the missing Magnetic Ink? No mention of the NADRA unverified votes ECP was responsible to give a free and fair election – not HALF fair – or even 73% fair – its been over a year – 27% cases pending No mention as to why Ayaz Sadiq has kept delaying Tribunal hearings – do ask Zahid No mention as to the missing ballot boxes in Karachi? No mention of the missing RO’s and PO’s in a number of stations of Karachi No mention of the missing stamps, ballot papers in a number of stations of Karachi No mention of the fact that the ex-CJP addressed the RO’s for the first time in history No mention of the reason for the delay in the remaining tribunal heardings GOVT? is not involved or is it well i guess the arguments he needed to make was to attack PTI – not to present a neutral point of view being the son of Chief EC Fakhruddin Ibrahim"...

Also, here's FAFEN's clarification in response to that article.

Electoral rigging: FAFEN’s clarification – The Express Tribune
 
IK is taking calculated risks... he did a few (successful) gatherings in Punjab before announcing the Azadi March. He knows it will be a success and his demands will be met and that is evident enough from the panic seen in PMLN's ranks... and no Govt. can escape the wrath of street power... we've seen that happened to Shah of Iran, to Hosni Mubarak and many more and Nawaz is in no way stronger than either of them...

What will happen on 14th and after is yet to be seen but your analysis/outcomes would have made more sense if you had brought GHQ in the limelight too (considering what has been done to Musharraf and GEO/ISI debacle and PMLN's siding of GEO).

A democratically elected leader is always more powerful than any dictator. Especially in Pakistan. Dictators have their own constituency - at this point it is no more than 20% strong: see the latest PILDAT survey.

Its up to the people. They shall give their verdict in elections. Who ever does better shall be rewarded.
 
1. Here is answer to one of your questions about rigging and government response:
Ten truths about electoral rigging
By Zahid F. Ebrahim
Published: August 4, 2014

The article above you posted is written by none other than Ex ECP Chariman's son who failed to defend his father's working. @Jazzbot posted a link in the rebuttal of this article. And here's a comment on that same article you posted and I quote.

Apart from that rebuttal... here's a comment posted on the article and I quote... "A lop-sided article – totally & deliberately Pro-PML – each point is geared to put down PTI No mention of Returning Officers? PTI’s entire argument is against RO’s No mention of the missing Magnetic Ink? No mention of the NADRA unverified votes ECP was responsible to give a free and fair election – not HALF fair – or even 73% fair – its been over a year – 27% cases pending No mention as to why Ayaz Sadiq has kept delaying Tribunal hearings – do ask Zahid No mention as to the missing ballot boxes in Karachi? No mention of the missing RO’s and PO’s in a number of stations of Karachi No mention of the missing stamps, ballot papers in a number of stations of Karachi No mention of the fact that the ex-CJP addressed the RO’s for the first time in history No mention of the reason for the delay in the remaining tribunal heardings GOVT? is not involved or is it well i guess the arguments he needed to make was to attack PTI – not to present a neutral point of view being the son of Chief EC Fakhruddin Ibrahim"...

Also, here's FAFEN's clarification in response to that article.

Electoral rigging: FAFEN’s clarification – The Express Tribune

A democratically elected leader is always more powerful than any dictator. Especially in Pakistan. Dictators have their own constituency - at this point it is no more than 20% strong: see the latest PILDAT survey.

Its up to the people. They shall give their verdict in elections. Who ever does better shall be rewarded.

Then PMLN should follow the footstep of Erdogan... by showing (a sitting Govt.'s) street power in response to (his rivals) PTI's Azadi March. After all they've won with a clear majority and all those who voted PMLN must not afraid of countering this March for PMLN's sake.
 
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The article above you posted is written by none other than Ex ECP Chariman's son who failed to defend his father's working. @Jazzbot posted a link in the rebuttal of this article. And here's a comment on that same article you posted and I quote.



Also, here's FAFEN's clarification in response to that article.

Electoral rigging: FAFEN’s clarification – The Express Tribune

Thanks for bringing this to my attention. It is very relevant to the thread.

I would like to present my observations:

1. FAFEN is not debunking the whole article.

2. They are basically disassociating themselves from certain statements. Understandably they do not wish to appear partisan. That would call their credibility in question from motivated circles.

3. If I were to go a step further, I could say that FAFEN appears to support whatever they do not oppose. This would be unwarranted on my part. The converse, that FAFEN actually disagrees with the whole article would be the other extreme. Therefore, I view FAFEN's clarification as bringing balance to this debate, and not taking a side as such. Calling this clarification a rebuttal is going a bit far IMO.
 
Running out of options
By Zahid Hussain

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The battle lines are more or less defined now with the approach of Aug 14. Unsurprisingly, Tahirul Qadri has joined hands with Imran Khan for the ‘azadi march’. His fanatically motivated supporters, drawn mainly from the lower middle classes across the Punjab heartland, may add spine to Imran Khan’s middle-class youth brigade with no experience of street agitation.

Besides, Qadri has set a more strident tenor for D-Day. Now there is no going back on the ‘revolution’, he has warned his allies. It is certainly the politics of expediency that has brought together Qadri and Khan on the same platform. But the radical rhetoric of the Canada-based cleric and his incitement to violence could turn him into a liability for the PTI and prove to be the undoing of the ‘azadi march’ even before it has taken off. Nevertheless the new coalition will shape the emerging political polarisation in the country.

Most other political parties are sitting on the fringes weighing their options as the confrontation comes to a head. What happens on Aug 14 is most likely to determine their future course of action. But more importantly, what are the choices for the beleaguered prime minister in this hour of reckoning?

Will the prime minister sail through the storm or be swept away by the tide?
Will he sail through the storm or be swept away by the tide? Having already lost the initiative in the battle of narratives, Nawaz Sharif faces a tough fight ahead to survive in power against strong odds. It is more than just a political battle; the government’s unresolved tension with the generals over Musharraf’s treason trial and a host of other issues will also matter in the endgame.

Having been thrown out of power halfway through his tenure twice, one expected Sharif to exercise discretion while tackling the mounting political tension. However, the dynamics of the present crisis are quite different from the past. Unlike his previous terms, when the power struggle at the top echelon cost him his government, Sharif is confronting a street show of force challenging the very legitimacy of his rule for the first time.

Surely, the threat is compounded by the conflict within the power structure. Sharif’s uninspiring and absent leadership does not help his cause for mobilising mass support for the impending battle. The concentration of power within a small family circle has exposed the weak ability of the government to motivate party cadres to stand up to the challenge

Yet there is no sign the prime minister realises the gravity of the situation. He still wonders where he has gone wrong. His speech on Monday at the launching of Vision 2025 had a defensive tone with no clarity on how he is going to fight the battle. He still seems to be in a state of denial about the gathering storm. His implicit inference to the military being the author of the script will surely further sour already tense civil-military relations at this crucial stage.

The Punjab government’s perilous handling of the Qadri issue — first the killing of 14 Minhajul Quran activists in June and then the recent blocking of the roads by containers — has cost the administration dearly. The spectacle of men and women crawling under the containers to reach their destinations in Lahore could not be more politically damaging for the Sharif brothers. The container strategy has failed to work and any move to detain Imran Khan and other leaders ahead of the Aug 14 sit-in will surely boomerang on the administration, fuelling uncontrollable violence across Punjab and perhaps giving more dead bodies for Qadri to exploit.

It would have been more sensible had the government permitted the PTI’s march in the first place. In that case, the onus of maintaining peace would squarely be on the opposition. Now Qadri’s joining the march has changed the matrix and any show of flexibility by the government would be taken as a sign of weakness. The space for Sharif regaining the initiative is fast shrinking.

Yet it is not the end of the road for the Sharif government. There are still a few options left for the troubled prime minister to regain the lost political space. His biggest political capital is the party’s absolute majority in the National Assembly that he has yet to put into action. A major problem for Sharif is his utter disregard for parliament. His rare appearances in the House and inability to initiate debate on major policy issues has rendered parliament ineffective and increased his isolation.

It took a long time for Sharif to embrace the other major parties represented in parliament and that too came when the chips were down. Inviting political leaders to the national security meeting to discuss the North Waziristan military operation may be a positive move.

But mixing the discussion on security issues with politics in the presence of the military brass raises some relevant questions about the actual purpose of bringing together the civilian and military leadership. The image of a line of army generals in their battle fatigues sitting across the table from the political leaders was presumably meant to send a signal to the public of the military’s backing for the government.

What was the idea behind the decision to telecast live the prime minister’s opening remarks concerning the political crisis in what was supposed to be an in-camera security briefing? This kind of game is counterproductive. The government is expected to take a saner approach in such a situation.

Sharif may be down, but he is not out of the game yet. It is neither a 1993 nor a 1999 situation when he lost the power struggle. But the wrong moves could land him into the same situation. It is not just the issue of facing up to the challenge thrown by the Qadri-Imran combine, Sharif also needs to address other problems concerning governance and the economy to ensure his survival in power and avert the derailing of a fledgling democratic process.

The writer is an author and journalist.

zhussain100@yahoo.com

Twitter: @hidhussain

Published in Dawn, Aug 13th, 2014
 
@AstanoshKhan Yo sir, saw you after a long time. Welcome back. :cheers:
How's life going?

Thank you brother... I'm all good... Life is Alhamdulillah Okay... was busy in sorting out my life though... were missing you people and PDF very much... and hence I'm back. I hope you're good too.
 
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