PTI, PML-N, Establishment, and the Bangkok Scenario

[Amaa'n]

@VCheng @Chak Bamu here is an extract from the book "We've Learnt Nothing from History" by 'Asghar Khan', I hope it is readable enough, if not, let me know, I will try to upload a clearer one by morning ---

 

[VCheng]

@VCheng @Chak Bamu here is an extract from the book "We've Learnt Nothing from History" by 'Asghar Khan', I hope it is readable enough, if not, let me know, I will try to upload a clearer one by morning ---

I can read it just fine, thank you for posting.

As much as I understand the history of how we got to this point, I think it is more important to keep an eye on the future, because that is where we are going, not back to the past.

Now that Pakistan is nearing almost three-quarters of a century, surely we must be able to figure out that a nation and country needs all its institutions working, not just one. And that one institution should by now have the maturity to see that by knowing and keeping its proper place, it makes itself much stronger too as the whole country becomes stronger, no matter what the drummed up justifications for acting illegally.

Otherwise, we will remain where we are: stuck in neutral and looking into the rear view mirror instead of the windscreen.

 

[Edevelop]

I think our people have poor memory when it comes to PTI and their allies vs PML-N. Lets have a look at a political timeline.

1. Both Sharifs meet Imran in Hospital and cancel their Election Jalsas.

2. Imran does Bed politics and begs people to vote

3. Nawaz Sharif announces he will not make any alliances to topple PTI's KPK Government. Despite heavy differences he stays firm with his call.

4. Hamid Khan alleges Saad Rafique did rigging. Technically still an 'allege'. More than 1 year has gone by Hamid Khan couldn't prove it to Election Commission and Supreme Court

5. Imran meets Nawaz Sharif in Bani Gala and praises him for good performance.

6. Shahbaz Sharif on behalf of Punjab Government provides land to Imran for Namal University. Imran thanks him and says good performance

7. PTI fails to promise the things they were going to do in first 90 days.

8. Nawaz Sharif listens to Imran regarding Taliban Talks and invites him to meet with Kayani. Few months later Imran makes a U-Turn and talks behind both of their backs.

9. Nawaz Sharif then offers Imran to become Government's negotiator in Taliban Talks. Imran rejects.

10. Pakistani Economy sees improvement. Dollar comes down from 105 to 97, Shiekh Rasid didn't go away as promised, PIA and Railways makes revenue in fiscal months, China announces 35 Billion Dollar investment in Energy Projects, Road and Rail corridors from Gwadar to Kashgar, and GDP estimated to grow to 4.1%. PTI, mainly their so called economist named Asad Umar ignores World Bank, IMF, UN, and Moody's reports and terms PPP governance from last 5 years as 'better'.

11. The same 'Jangla Bus' they called and criticized in Lahore and Rawalpindi is being planned in Peshawar. Asad Umar who is claiming it can be built at 4 Billion Rupees has his KPK Government planning it at cost of upto 50 Billion Rupees.

12. . PTI government fails in KPK. Spent between 10% - 30% of budget in 1 year. Forget Jangla Bus they didn't even build a Jangla.

13. Law and Order deteriorates and PTI being second largest party shows little interest in national affairs. Nawaz Sharif consults with Armed Forces. He respects their view and lauches Zarb e Azeb Operation in Waziristan. Imran criticizes the move and says the same peace talks were better.

14. Imran still allied with Mullahs like Jamaat e Islami, who were against creation of Pakistan, indulged in violence and whose last chief Munawar Hassan said 40,000 people who died in war on terror were dogs, not shaheed.

15.. Imran then starts to blame Ifthikhar Chaudhary for rigging, the same Chief Justice who he begged to withdraw his contempt charges.

16. Imran then blames Fakhruddin G Ebrahim for rigging, the same person who he supported with PPP and PML-N as candidate for Election Commission.

17. Imran takes the rigging issue by not accepting the point of view of independent groups like European Union Observers.

18.. Imran increases rigging allegations from 1 to 4 to 10 to 30 constituencies to all of a sudden wanting mid-term elections.

19. Some PTI Politicians then go wild with blaming Pakistan Army, India, and U.S in rigging elections.

20. PTI supports another Mullah named Qadri whose own Party members recently resigned by saying he has violent intentions.

21. Imran makes the nation clear that Azadi March is his desperation to become Prime Minister. He cannot wait 4 years.

22. Imran talks with Zardari on the Phone.

23. Imran tells CM Khattak not to attend National Security Meeting. In other words KPK Government is directly under his control and he doesn't care what the Taliban might do in the country.

 

[Amaa'n]

I can read it just fine, thank you for posting.

As much as I understand the history of how we got to this point, I think it is more important to keep an eye on the future, because that is where we are going, not back to the past.

Now that Pakistan is nearing almost three-quarters of a century, surely we must be able to figure out that a nation and country needs all its institutions working, not just one. And that one institution should by now have the maturity to see that by knowing and keeping its proper place, it makes itself much stronger too as the whole country becomes stronger, no matter what the drummed up justifications for acting illegally.

Otherwise, we will remain where we are: stuck in neutral and looking into the rear view mirror instead of the windscreen.

rightly said ---
The point I was trying to make is that we need to plan for the future - however that necessary does not mean we should ignore the past - as one learns from their mistake from the past - and it is for this reason, this book has been named " We've learnt nothing from our history"

We were fortunate enough to get strong Military and the bureaucracy, however it was very unfortunate of us that he had no strong leadership --
and in absence of central political leadership - the other two had to call the shots ---
as you have said very rightly, we have come very far, but too distant from our goal.....Military & Bureaucracy are still calling the shots, and Political leadership is no where to be found ---

 

[VCheng]

rightly said ---
The point I was trying to make is that we need to plan for the future - however that necessary does not mean we should ignore the past - as one learns from their mistake from the past - and it is for this reason, this book has been named " We've learnt nothing from our history"

We were fortunate enough to get strong Military and the bureaucracy, however it was very unfortunate of us that he had no strong leadership --
and in absence of central political leadership - the other two had to call the shots ---
as you have said very rightly, we have come very far, but too distant from our goal.....Military & Bureaucracy are still calling the shots, and Political leadership is no where to be found ---

A rickshaw with only two wheels is not going anywhere unless the third one is fixed.

 

[SQ8]

A rickshaw with only two wheels is not going anywhere unless the third one is fixed.

This may be a motorbike with a side car.

 

[VCheng]

This may be a motorbike with a side car.

It still ain't going anywhere without all three of its wheels present and working, unless you jettison the side car, in which case it is not what it was supposed to be.

 

[SQ8]

It still ain't going anywhere without all three of its wheels present and working, unless you jettison the side car, in which case it is not what it was supposed to be.

Oh it can go, Just that its on a very tipsy balance, It cant land on the side and stop. See, not going somewhere means that there is still some calm where one can find a wheel and fit it, fix something.. and so on. Here the vehicle is dis-balanced and essentially wobbling about all over the place, ready to crash at a moments notice.

 

[VCheng]

Oh it can go, Just that its on a very tipsy balance, It cant land on the side and stop. See, not going somewhere means that there is still some calm where one can find a wheel and fit it, fix something.. and so on. Here the vehicle is dis-balanced and essentially wobbling about all over the place, ready to crash at a moments notice.

Very good analogy, that explains why the rest of the world is whizzing by this rickety unstable contraption and leaving it in the dust. I get it.

 

[Chak Bamu]

I've been away for a couple of days, hence my late replies.

The Army knows it cannot mount a coup directly. It only needs to keep the civilian government "in its place", that is all, but keeping the political process suitably destabilized, and kept just so on edge, using proxies turned up or down as needed.

I am aware of this. Yours is a more probable explanation. I wanted to show a parallel scenario to show where the present situation may lead to. Pakistan is not Thailand obviously and therefore their respective trajectories would be somewhat different.

In the present situation at least three factors are relevant for Army's thinking.

First, Army is already fighting a war.

Second, Despite what the critics may say, the present government has won over the vast majority of the part of conservative element of society who had some sympathy for TTP. The turn around has been slow, but crucial for a successful prosecution of war against TTP. Army could not have done it by itself.

Third, Army probably understands that it can not rule Pakistan. The last time was a mess which we are still sorting through. Army depends on resources and they tend to dry up in a post-coup environment. The economy is not Army's thing. PML-N for now can better deal with it, and they have shown that they've started the process of rehabilitation.

So, the chances of coup are low. But they exist nevertheless.

To pressurize the present government there was a need for useful idiots, just like in Thailand and Egypt. These are never in short supply and they've been found to be very eager at this time. The opportunity must be tempting. It would take a mature approach on part of the Army to take the higher road on principle.

After a few days we shall see which way the situation settles. Our model should be Turkey, we seem to be following the trajectory of Thailand. But in any case, we shall not be Egypt. I hope that beyond this mess Pakistan's political class resolves to replicate Turkey's example in dealing with institutional change from within.

bamu bhai - aik baat tou baatien , don't you think, you are overthinking about this whole scenario.
it could be the reason that you have seen 77' , 79' and 99', and by that time, i wasn't even born, heck i was way too young to even remember the 99'....the very blurry image of 99' i have in mind is, my relative calling us in the middle of night that she watched on PTV, ISB being taken over by military---and next day by evening we found out that Mushy has taken over the seat----
however, coming back to the present that, i think i have a pretty good idea, and so does every other citizen, and military will not risk it....if PTI and PAT can gather such a crowd then imagine what kind of a crowd PMLN , JUIF, PPP will bring on the street if its a Coup----
whatever the case here is my Theory - and mind it its just a theory
one thing we need to keep in mind about Establishment is these guys don't plan for 1-3 years, but for long term strategic goals, they will keep a Jihadi alive only to use him after 30 years-----

* 2011 - a serving DG ISI meets Chairman PTI and agrees to fund his campaign, he was the only player back then with good following, and whom energetic youth could follow - and who had a good support not inside the country but also abroad -- i was in UK then and had a close friend who was a party worker -----
* Oct - Dec 2011 - comes the time when PTI holds the jalsa - they had the financial support from the establishment
* allot of new people start joining the party, starting with Shah Mehmood Qureshi & the Baghi
* 2012, it was the campaign year,rally here and a jalsa there - the twist here was Establishment viewed PTI as a backup too- someone who could oppose PMLN shall the need arises ---
*2013 - Election year - PMLN wins with a majorirty - they were "allowed" to win. as pti was not a mature party and still in its early phase PMLN with a business mind would help them get stabilize things, while they prepare to go war--- they also viewed that Nawaz shariff would let go off his ego, and would play as a mature politcian, perhaps they were decieved by Shahbaz Shariff & Ch. Nisar, as they are the only wise person in PMLN team ----
*2014 - things did not go as planned, PMLN still had a grudge against military, he would not let go off his stubbornness, after various attempts of Ch.nisar & SS he was still the same ---so Establishment had to make some calls, they put their pawn back to the play ---

The common thing I see between 77, 79 & 99, is that all other parties who were not in Govt, sided with Establishment as they wanted a piece of Cake too - they allowed the Establishment to take over --- PPP along with other major parties sided with Zia in 79 to delay the elections because they knew that they would not be able to win much seats, so they played along -----

Who is to blame?? well its beyond me ---because i see both sides on the wrong ---

Bhai, I have addressed some of your thoughts in my reply above.

1. Nothing happened in '79 in Pakistan Our neighbors went through great changes though. I too was very young in '77. But I remember somethings very clearly. I had started to read newspapers at a relatively young age.

2. The present situation has developed because a number of factors. Its PML-N's own attitude, IK's impatience, Musharraf's situation, and misgivings of our Army. In any case you are thinking along correct lines. Nobody is innocent here and the only way to go forward is to let the government do its thing for next 3 and a quarter years.

 

[VCheng]

I am aware of this. Yours is a more probable explanation. I wanted to show a parallel scenario to show where the present situation may lead to. Pakistan is not Thailand obviously and therefore their respective trajectories would be somewhat different.
In the present situation at least three factors are relevant for Army's thinking.
First, Army is already fighting a war.
Second, Despite what the critics may say, the present government has won over the vast majority of the part of conservative element of society who had some sympathy for TTP. The turn around has been slow, but crucial for a successful prosecution of war against TTP. Army could not have done it by itself.
Third, Army probably understands that it can not rule Pakistan. The last time was a mess which we are still sorting through. Army depends on resources and they tend to dry up in a post-coup environment. The economy is not Army's thing. PML-N for now can better deal with it, and they have shown that they've started the process of rehabilitation.
So, the chances of coup are low. But they exist nevertheless.
To pressurize the present government there was a need for useful idiots, just like in Thailand and Egypt. These are never in short supply and they've been found to be very eager at this time. The opportunity must be tempting. It would take a mature approach on part of the Army to take the higher road on principle.
After a few days we shall see which way the situation settles. Our model should be Turkey, we seem to be following the trajectory of Thailand. But in any case, we shall not be Egypt. I hope that beyond this mess Pakistan's political class resolves to replicate Turkey's example in dealing with institutional change from within.

You make some fair comments. The next few days will reveal which way Pakistan will go. Let's hope that sanity, or at least a modicum of it, prevails.

 

[Chak Bamu]

Does anybody fail to see the script being followed?

TuQ seems to be running the government and media. He is inciting crowds and preaching non-violence in a remarkable show of DoubleSpeak. Pakistan Army has conveniently refused to intervene on side of the constitutional government.

Thai Army managed to do it with 100,000 people led by a demagogue and it took them a few months. We are more efficient it seems.

 

[VCheng]

Does anybody fail to see the script being followed?

TuQ seems to be running the government and media. He is inciting crowds and preaching non-violence in a remarkable show of DoubleSpeak. Pakistan Army has conveniently refused to intervene on side of the constitutional government.

Thai Army managed to do it with 100,000 people led by a demagogue and it took them a few months. We are more efficient it seems.

The funny thing is, it is still the same old script. Nobody even bothered to change anything. The sad part is that it still works perfectly, which says a lot about the nation too.

 

[VCheng]

Some may not like what he says, but here it is pretty correct:

Three, two, one - Newspaper - DAWN.COM

Three, two, one
By Cyril Almeida

If they can, they will. If there’s an incentive — power — and there’s opportunity — a rickety system — someone will attack.

Defence — plugging the holes — is usually ex-post, after the event, because ex-ante, before the event, it’s the attacker who has the greater incentive to find the vulnerabilities.

Simply, democracy will be attacked as long as democracy is weak, and the weaknesses will be found by the attackers more often than they will be by the defenders.

Frustrating as it is to watch Nawaz & co flail around and struggle to stay upright, it is also true that the foes they are contending with are many and the avenues of attack innumerable.

Start with Imran. He’s tough to defend against because he’s unpredictable and bound by no rules. He’s like that guy who’ll stand and throw fistful of mud after fistful of mud at a wall until something sticks.

Immediately after the election, Imran tried the electoral-fraud fistful of mud. It didn’t stick. Then he switched to electricity. It nearly stuck — but Nawaz offered to let him take charge of Pesco and Imran backed down.

The defence needs to be more alert, hungrier, fiercer, nimbler than the attacker. Nawaz & co failed that test
Then he found a fistful of mud that stuck and stuck for a while — attacking the government for not engaging the Taliban in dialogue. It was a potent line of attack given that an internal war is unpopular.

Eventually, Nawaz owned the dialogue option and Imran had to find something else. That’s when he returned to electoral fraud, but this time the fistful of mud was better moulded: four constituencies.

PML-N had a look, shrugged and went back to business. But that narrow, focused demand stuck — and struck a chord in the wider public and political arena. What’s the harm in having a look at four constituencies? It was damaging precisely because it was innocuous.

Thirty-five seats, recounting every vote cast, altogether fresh elections — those options seemed far too disruptive and were easily swatted away. Four constituencies was the fistful of mud that stuck to the wall of Fortress Sharif and stayed in place.

From there, Imran had something he could build on. More and more mud was flung until a mud ramp began to take shape and storming the castle became a possibility.

That’s what got us here.

If it wasn’t this, it would be something else. If it wasn’t something else, it would be another thing altogether. Something, anything — if the attacker is persistent and willing to try anything, the vulnerabilities will eventually be exposed. Especially if the system is weak.

Which means the defence needs to be more alert, hungrier, fiercer, nimbler than the attacker. Nawaz & co failed that test. They failed to spot the danger, failed to neutralise an incipient threat, failed to scrape off that first fistful of mud that clung to the walls of Fortress Nawaz — and now are facing the biggest of crises.

Imran won’t go away because Imran has time and possibility on his side. It’s in the nature of weak systems. Imran is simply showing us what’s possible when the system is weak.

Turn to the boys. Three mistakes Nawaz made: Musharraf; keenness on India; and siding against the ISI in the media wars. Which is fair enough ’cause what is power without ruffling status quo feathers?

The problem for Nawaz was the weak democratic system, which meant that pushback didn’t have to be direct. The attack could come from above or below or behind or from the sides — it never had to come from the front, the only thing Nawaz seemed to have prepared for.

The problem with Nawaz and the boys isn’t that they don’t get each other or understand each other, it’s that they precisely understand each other and know what the other is up to.

For the boys, there are three red lines: the leadership; the perks and the sprawling empire; and national security and foreign policy on India, Afghanistan and the US.

Nawaz ceded two, but went after the third: the leadership. Trying Musharraf is a Trojan horse, the thin edge of the wedge, putting the civilian cat among the army pigeons.

Get Musharraf and the door opens, not for mass trials but for collective demotion, of a slow road to ordinary-citizen status, vulnerable to the same whims and damage that the political class is.

The boys know this, Nawaz knows this — and only one side can win. It didn’t have to be this way. It could have been the strong system of the boys versus the weak but united system of the civilians.

Except, Nawaz is the go-it-alone sort. An emperor with a vulnerable kingdom and not the means to defend it. If only a valiant fight, the good fight, was a winning fight.

Perhaps — and oh the things, the many things that could be different — the worst thing to have happened to Nawaz was winning that damn election outright.

Zardari proved a survivor, a sustainer of coalitions, because he needed to be. The electoral maths post-May 11 meant Nawaz needed no partners. The emperor could do as he pleased.

And he did. And the system hit back.

If they can, they will. They can, so they have. Nawaz thought he could and there was no one to tell him that he couldn’t.

1990-1993; 1997-1999; 2013-2014?

Three years, two years, one year — terms one, two and three have proved one thing: if they can, they will. And they grow less patient with time.

The writer is a member of staff.

 

[VCheng]

Here is another view from abroad:

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/24/w...tactics-stir-fears-of-crisis-in-pakistan.html

ASIA PACIFIC

Populist’s Brash Tactics Stir Fears of Crisis in Pakistan
By DECLAN WALSH, AUG. 23, 2014

LONDON — Only last year, Imran Khan was casting himself as the savior of Pakistani politics: a playboy cricketer turned opposition leader who enjoyed respect and sex appeal, filling stadiums with adoring young Pakistanis drawn to his strident attacks on corruption, American drone strikes and old-school politics. When Mr. Khan promised that he would become prime minister, many believed him.

Now, though, Mr. Khan’s populist touch appears to have deserted him.

He led thousands of supporters into the center of the capital, Islamabad, a week ago in a boisterous bid to force the resignation of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, whom he accuses of election fraud. But the crowds he attracted were much smaller than his party had hoped, and the protest movement has been messy, inchoate and inconclusive.

Mr. Khan, 61, delivers speeches every day from atop a shipping container opposite the Parliament building, while his supporters sleep on the streets of a paralyzed city. But because he lacks the clout to break the political deadlock, he has turned to inflammatory tactics.

In recent days, he has called for a tax boycott, threatened to have his supporters storm the prime minister’s house, and pulled his party’s lawmakers from Parliament. In interviews, he has compared himself to Gandhi and to Tariq ibn Ziyad, an eighth-century Islamic general. In speeches, he has threatened his enemies and taunted Mr. Sharif, at one point challenging him to a fistfight.

The rest of the political opposition and much of the news media in Pakistan have turned against Mr. Khan, who is seen as having disastrously overreached. “Go Home Imran,” said a politically conservative newspaper, The Nation. Another writer called him “the Sarah Palin of Pakistan.”

But many worry that Mr. Khan’s brash tactics could endanger the country’s fragile democracy. Breaking its sphinxlike stance, the military intervened in the turmoil on Tuesday, urging politicians to resolve their differences with “patience, wisdom and sagacity.” Though benignly worded, the statement caused anxious flutters among the political class, who note Pakistan’s long history of military coups.

The protests in Islamabad “threaten to upend the constitutional order, set back rule of law and open the possibility of a soft coup, with the military ruling through the back door,” the Brussels-based International Crisis Group warned on Thursday. Hours later, the American Embassy in Islamabad said pointedly in a statement that its diplomats “strongly oppose any efforts to impose extraconstitutional change.”

On the streets, Mr. Khan’s movement has the boisterous feel of a midsummer music festival. Pop stars introduce his speeches, which are punctuated by songs during which his supporters, many of them women, burst into dance. A disc jockey known as DJ Butt is part of his entourage.

But Mr. Khan’s stewardship of that exuberant crowd has seemed erratic. When the marchers arrived in Islamabad on Aug. 15 after a punishing 36-hour journey from Lahore, the capital was being pounded by rain. While his supporters slept on the wet streets, Mr. Khan retreated to his villa outside the city to rest, drawing sharp criticism.

In speeches, he has used extensive cricket analogies, referring to himself as “captain,” and his heated, often intemperate style has alienated some supporters. At one point, he threatened to send his political enemies to the Taliban so the insurgents could “deal with them.”

Mr. Khan’s call for supporters to stop paying taxes and utility bills met with widespread derision because few Pakistanis pay income taxes, and the country is already crippled with power shortages. His attack on the United States ambassador, Richard G. Olson, was seen as pandering to anti-American sentiment. “Are we, Pakistanis, children of a lesser god?” he said in that speech.

The protests stem from accusations of vote-rigging in the May 2013 general election. Mr. Khan accuses Mr. Sharif’s party of fixing the vote in a number of constituencies in Punjab Province. Critics of Mr. Khan call his accusations sour grapes: Although international observers noted some irregularities, the election was accepted as broadly free and fair.

Suspicions that the military, whose relations with Mr. Sharif’s government have been tense, might have something to do with Mr. Khan’s protest movement were heightened by the appearance of Muhammad Tahir-ul Qadri, a mercurial cleric whose parallel movement has, in recent days, outshone Mr. Khan’s.

Mr. Qadri, who wants to replace Mr. Sharif’s government with one of technocrats, appears to have attracted a larger and more disciplined crowd, and to be benefiting from a simpler message. Normally based in Canada, he controls no seats in Parliament, and his populist manifesto is filled with laudable but vague notions like an end to terrorism.

Mr. Sharif’s government, which initially reacted to the protests in a clumsy and sometimes brutal manner, has taken a more sophisticated approach in recent days. The police have allowed Mr. Khan’s and Mr. Qadri’s supporters to reach the area outside Parliament, although the building itself is surrounded by hundreds of soldiers.

On one level, the dispute is about control of Punjab, Pakistan’s most populous province and Mr. Sharif’s political heartland. Mr. Khan’s party, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, knows it must challenge Mr. Sharif in Punjab to stand a chance of beating him nationally.

Negotiations started Wednesday, but Mr. Khan called them off a day later, demanding that Mr. Sharif resign first. Addressing a crowd, he railed against the prime minister in language considered coarse even by the rowdy standards of Pakistani politics.

Pressure to resolve the crisis is rising, both from hard-liners in Mr. Sharif’s party and from residents of Islamabad, who complain about the strain the protests have put on the capital. Protesters dry their laundry on the lawn of the Supreme Court and slip behind bushes to defecate.

The former president, Asif Ali Zardari, has offered to help mediate between the parties and met with Mr. Sharif on Saturday. But the situation on the streets remains fluid. An outbreak of violence or an overreaction by the police could shift the advantage to Mr. Khan and endanger the government, analysts say.

Few Pakistanis believe that a military coup is imminent. But the crisis has weakened Mr. Sharif, who has squabbled with the generals over policy toward India, peace talks with the Taliban and the fate of the former military ruler Pervez Musharraf, who faces treason charges.

“The military doesn’t need to impose martial law now,” said Amir Mateen, a political analyst based in Islamabad. “Imran has weakened the entire political class, and the government is on its knees. The military can have its agenda fulfilled without doing anything.”

The next move, though, is up to Mr. Khan, who, having played an ambitious game, now needs to find a way to end it peacefully.

Salman Masood contributed reporting from Islamabad, Pakistan.