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Stimson Poll: Vast Majority of Indians Believe Nuclear War Against Pakistan is Winnable

RiazHaq

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Vast majority of Indians, including those who oppose Prime Minister Narendra Modi, believe that nuclear war is "winnable", according to the results of a Stimson Center poll released recently. They want their country to build a bigger nuclear arsenal than China and Pakistan combined. Responding to the clamor for more nukes, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said in 2019 that Indian nuclear weapons were not kept as mere showpieces. Strong belief about India's ability to win a nuclear war against Pakistan cuts across party lines with 91% of those who support Mr. Modi and 85% of those who don't. Recently, a group of researchers at Rutgers University considered a hypothetical nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan as they believed such a conflict was the most likely. The group warned that an India-Pakistan nuclear exchange will be catastrophic for the region with tens of millions of immediate fatalities in the war zone, followed by hundreds of millions of starvation deaths around the globe.

The poll also finds that the overwhelming majority of Indians are confident their military can defeat both China and Pakistan. They expect that the United States military would come to India's aid in the event of a war with China or Pakistan. Stimson Center analysts believe that "Indian self-confidence may lead to mistaken popular views of Indian military prowess: India has considerable military capabilities against its most likely regional opponents. Yet Indian confidence that India would likely defeat China or Pakistan may exceed what a careful net assessment might warrant".


The nuclear arsenals of India, Pakistan and China are small but growing faster than those of other nuclear-armed countries, according to a report in The Economist magazine. The combined nuclear stockpiles of China (350 warheads), India (160) and Pakistan (165) now exceed British and French arsenals in Europe (around 500 in total). All three countries are now building their own nuclear “triads”: nukes deliverable from land, air and sea.

The Stimson survey was conducted by phone with a random sample of 7000 Indians between April 13 and May 14, 2022. Below are its key findings as reported by Christopher Clary, Sameer Lalwani, Niloufer Siddiqui and Neelanjan Sircar:

1. High levels of support for Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who likely remains among the most popular national leaders in the world today;

2. Extraordinary nationalist sentiment among Indians, at high levels compared to prior cross-national surveys using identical question wording;

3. Troubling signs of intolerance toward India’s large Muslim minority, which helps provide context to recent controversies;

4. Strong confidence in the Indian government’s ability to defend India against potential domestic and foreign threats;

5. Expectations among a majority of Indian respondents that the U.S. military would support India in the event of a war with China or Pakistan; and

6. Large majorities in favor of Indian numerical nuclear superiority against its adversaries.

Related Links:

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Man it surprises me that the idiocy is actually across the aisle. And the majority believe they will against China as well.

Oh well, time for the army to make more nukes and get second strike capability.

Bhartis live in their own bubble much like they base real life around bollywood.
 
A new survey has found an extraordinarily high level of self-confidence among Indians about being Indians.
https://www.therahnuma.com/survey-finds-new-indian-exceptionalism-pride-in-being-indian/
Similar national self-belief is called “American Exceptionalism” in the US, which appears to have been overtaken by this new “Indian Exceptionalism”, according to this survey.
The survey also found persisting distrust among Indians of the US. While a majority of Indians believe the US will come to India’s aid militarily in a conflict with China and Pakistan, a large minority of them do not — almost 4 out of 10 Indians think India will have to go it alone.
Further, the survey reaffirmed Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s return to peak popularity from the beating he received for his handling of the Covid-19 pandemic and the protest by farmers.
And, finally, the survey said Indians want to amass more nuclear weapons than any and all adversary countries.
The survey was conducted in 12 languages in 28 Indian states and six of eight union territories over April-May by CVoter, a leading Indian polling agency, for The Stimson Center, a Washington D.C.-based think tank with a robust South Asia department.
The poll contacted 7,000 voters by phone.
A massive majority of Indians, 90 per cent, said they believed “India is a better country than most other countries”.
Americans, who are widely understood to be more nationalistic than others and routinely tout American Exceptionalism, clocked in at 70 per cent in response to the same question in a survey in 2014.
“While American exceptionalism is a well-understood domain of study, self-perceptions of Indian exceptionalism are relatively under-explored,” said the writers of the survey findings released by Stimson on Wednesday.
The CVoter survey finding seems consistent with an earlier finding, conducted by a different agency, which found 80 per cent of Indian respondents strongly or somewhat agreed with the statement that India is better than most other countries. It was a global survey, and Indians came in second, behind Japan. And that was at the time of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s government. This rising self-belief and confidence among Indians as a people has been growing, largely unnoticed at home by Indians and abroad by the rest of the world.
This self-belief extended to Indians’ perception of their country’s military prowess in the CVoter survey, 90 per cent, of respondents were confident India would probably or definitely defeat Pakistan. A smaller but significant portion of them, 72 per cent, felt the same level of confidence vis-a-vis China, which, according to military experts around the world, is a superior military power than India.
Asked if the US would come to Indiaa�s help militarily in the latter’s conflicts with these two countries, 56 per cent of respondents said its would be “definitely” or “probably” for China and 59 per cent for China. The survey noted that “a remaining large minority skeptical of US aid in such scenarios”.
The US did indeed come to India’s aid in the two conflicts with China, 1962 and 2020. But, as the survey noted, US contribution remained publicly unacknowledged by the Indian government, then (Congress government led by Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and BJP government now led by Prime Minister Modi). A former White House official felt compelled by the resounding lack of public expression of gratitude for US help in 2020 to put it on record at an annual security conference in New Delhi.
The survey also found that Modi’s popularity had rebounded from the mauling it received for his handling of the Covid-19 pandemic and the protest by farmers, with 71 per cent of respondents supporting him strongly or somewhat.
The Prime Minister’s rebounding popularity, and that of the ruling BJP, was found worrying by the writers of the CVoter-Stimson survey report.
They wrote: “Worryingly, supporters of Modi or the BJP were more likely to express discriminatory attitudes toward Muslims, such as stating they did not want to have a Muslim as a neighbour or that they believed India’s Muslim population was growing too fast. It is worth stating, however, that among all non-Muslim respondents, including both Modi supporters and sceptics, such discriminatory attitudes were widespread.”
Even more worrying perhaps was the survey’s finding that non-Modi supporters harbored similar antipathy for Muslims. “It is worth stating, however, that among all non-Muslim respondents, including both Modi supporters and sceptics, such discriminatory attitudes were widespread. An overwhelming majority of 78 per cent of respondents stated that they believed India’s Muslim population was growing too fast.”
And finally, the survey found that Indians supported ramping up the country’s nuclear arsenal to a level higher than all adversary countries.
Asked how many nuclear weapons India needed, respondents said: “An overwhelming majority, 68 per cent, assessed India needed more than its enemies. Just 13 per cent said India should have about as many nuclear weapons as its enemies, and only a handful assessed that India should only have ‘a few’ or ‘not any’ nuclear weapons.”
 
Pakistan’s longest range missile, Shaheen-III, has a max range of 2,750 kilometers. The missile uses a two-stage, solid propellant propulsion system. It is mounted on a Chinese TEL.
Given that Shaheen-III is Pakistan’s most powerful missile, it is essential to see how it fares with India’s most potent nuclear-capable missile — Agni-V.
Agni-V uses a three-stage, solid propellant propulsion system and is transported by a truck and launched with a canister. Its maximum velocity during the terminal phase reaches Mach 24. It is guided by a highly accurate ring laser gyroscope inertial navigation system that can strike a target within 10 meters.It has an operational range of 5,500-8,000 kilometers.It can even reach China’s eastern seaboard, where most of its economic output is concentrated.

In hindsight, there is no comparison between Shaheen-III and Agni-V as the latter completely outguns Shaheen-III due to its superior navigation system, propulsion, range, and terminal phase velocity. On top of that, Agni-V is an ICBM, whereas Shaheen-III is a medium-range ballistic missile. A better Indian missile to compare with Shaheen-III will be Agni-III.

Like Shaheen-III, Agni-III also has two-staged, Solid propellant propulsion. Agni-III has an edge over Shaheen-III in mobility and launch versatility.
While Shaheen-III is only road-mobile, Agni-III is both rail and road-mobile. Agni-III also has a superior guidance system than Shaheen-3. Agni-III operates on a Ring Laser Gyroscope inertial navigation system (same as Agni-V) and is augmented by GPS/NaVIC satellite guidance.

Pakistani's thinks that the Shaheen-III can impede India’s second-strike capability :lol: However, it is essential to note here that India has a functioning nuclear triad, and a mere targeting of its land-based launching facilities will not disable India’s second-strike capability.

Pakistan has come a long way in creating credible deterrence with the induction of Shaheen-III. However, they are still way behind India in missile technology. They will take centuries to catch up, even with the help of China.

Pakistan Shaheen III range is sufficient to hit targets anywhere in India. It doesn't need to test a longer range. Let's hope it is sufficient deterrence. Let's just hope there's never any need to use it. Using it would be catastrophic for all of South Asia and many nations around this region.



Shaheen%2BIII%2BRange%2BMap.jpg
 
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Vast majority of Indians, including those who oppose Prime Minister Narendra Modi, believe that nuclear war is "winnable", according to the results of a Stimson Center poll released recently. They want their country to build a bigger nuclear arsenal than China and Pakistan combined. Responding to the clamor for more nukes, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said in 2019 that Indian nuclear weapons were not kept as mere showpieces. Strong belief about India's ability to win a nuclear war against Pakistan cuts across party lines with 91% of those who support Mr. Modi and 85% of those who don't. Recently, a group of researchers at Rutgers University considered a hypothetical nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan as they believed such a conflict was the most likely. The group warned that an India-Pakistan nuclear exchange will be catastrophic for the region with tens of millions of immediate fatalities in the war zone, followed by hundreds of millions of starvation deaths around the globe.


The poll also finds that the overwhelming majority of Indians are confident their military can defeat both China and Pakistan. They expect that the United States military would come to India's aid in the event of a war with China or Pakistan. Stimson Center analysts believe that "Indian self-confidence may lead to mistaken popular views of Indian military prowess: India has considerable military capabilities against its most likely regional opponents. Yet Indian confidence that India would likely defeat China or Pakistan may exceed what a careful net assessment might warrant".



The nuclear arsenals of India, Pakistan and China are small but growing faster than those of other nuclear-armed countries, according to a report in The Economist magazine. The combined nuclear stockpiles of China (350 warheads), India (160) and Pakistan (165) now exceed British and French arsenals in Europe (around 500 in total). All three countries are now building their own nuclear “triads”: nukes deliverable from land, air and sea.

The Stimson survey was conducted by phone with a random sample of 7000 Indians between April 13 and May 14, 2022. Below are its key findings as reported by Christopher Clary, Sameer Lalwani, Niloufer Siddiqui and Neelanjan Sircar:

1. High levels of support for Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who likely remains among the most popular national leaders in the world today;

2. Extraordinary nationalist sentiment among Indians, at high levels compared to prior cross-national surveys using identical question wording;

3. Troubling signs of intolerance toward India’s large Muslim minority, which helps provide context to recent controversies;

4. Strong confidence in the Indian government’s ability to defend India against potential domestic and foreign threats;

5. Expectations among a majority of Indian respondents that the U.S. military would support India in the event of a war with China or Pakistan; and

6. Large majorities in favor of Indian numerical nuclear superiority against its adversaries.

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

South Asia Investor Review

Muslims Worse Off Than Dalits in India

General Kidwai on Pakistan's 2nd Strike Capability

Dalit Death Shines Light on India's Caste Apartheid

Caste Discrimination Rampant Among Silicon Valley Indians

Rape: A Political Weapon in Modi's India

Hindutva: The Legacy of the British Rulers "Divide and Rule" Project

Will Modi's Hindutva Lead to Multiple Partitions of India?

Riaz Haq Youtube Channel

PakAlumni: Pakistani Social Network



The problem with indians is that they suffer from a combination ignorance and stupidity..

The indian military is incapable of establishing airsuperiority in one sector... and they think they can win nuke war?
 
I think this is healthy. This is the kind of pride that gets people to invest in the nation and it’s possibilities. Usually most of the good bits of their aspirations works like a self fulfilling prophesy.

There’s a fair bit of reverse migration happening across major sectors and people are choosing to dream a bit bigger about their prospects. I like what I see.
 
Nuclear wars are only winable when your enemy is situated across a sea.
In our case, either India is attacking Pakistan or Pakistan attacking India, we both are dead. And the part getting attacked will be uninhabitable for centuries.
 
Last edited:

Vast majority of Indians, including those who oppose Prime Minister Narendra Modi, believe that nuclear war is "winnable", according to the results of a Stimson Center poll released recently. They want their country to build a bigger nuclear arsenal than China and Pakistan combined. Responding to the clamor for more nukes, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said in 2019 that Indian nuclear weapons were not kept as mere showpieces. Strong belief about India's ability to win a nuclear war against Pakistan cuts across party lines with 91% of those who support Mr. Modi and 85% of those who don't. Recently, a group of researchers at Rutgers University considered a hypothetical nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan as they believed such a conflict was the most likely. The group warned that an India-Pakistan nuclear exchange will be catastrophic for the region with tens of millions of immediate fatalities in the war zone, followed by hundreds of millions of starvation deaths around the globe.


The poll also finds that the overwhelming majority of Indians are confident their military can defeat both China and Pakistan. They expect that the United States military would come to India's aid in the event of a war with China or Pakistan. Stimson Center analysts believe that "Indian self-confidence may lead to mistaken popular views of Indian military prowess: India has considerable military capabilities against its most likely regional opponents. Yet Indian confidence that India would likely defeat China or Pakistan may exceed what a careful net assessment might warrant".



The nuclear arsenals of India, Pakistan and China are small but growing faster than those of other nuclear-armed countries, according to a report in The Economist magazine. The combined nuclear stockpiles of China (350 warheads), India (160) and Pakistan (165) now exceed British and French arsenals in Europe (around 500 in total). All three countries are now building their own nuclear “triads”: nukes deliverable from land, air and sea.

The Stimson survey was conducted by phone with a random sample of 7000 Indians between April 13 and May 14, 2022. Below are its key findings as reported by Christopher Clary, Sameer Lalwani, Niloufer Siddiqui and Neelanjan Sircar:

1. High levels of support for Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who likely remains among the most popular national leaders in the world today;

2. Extraordinary nationalist sentiment among Indians, at high levels compared to prior cross-national surveys using identical question wording;

3. Troubling signs of intolerance toward India’s large Muslim minority, which helps provide context to recent controversies;

4. Strong confidence in the Indian government’s ability to defend India against potential domestic and foreign threats;

5. Expectations among a majority of Indian respondents that the U.S. military would support India in the event of a war with China or Pakistan; and

6. Large majorities in favor of Indian numerical nuclear superiority against its adversaries.

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

South Asia Investor Review

Muslims Worse Off Than Dalits in India

General Kidwai on Pakistan's 2nd Strike Capability

Dalit Death Shines Light on India's Caste Apartheid

Caste Discrimination Rampant Among Silicon Valley Indians

Rape: A Political Weapon in Modi's India

Hindutva: The Legacy of the British Rulers "Divide and Rule" Project

Will Modi's Hindutva Lead to Multiple Partitions of India?

Riaz Haq Youtube Channel

PakAlumni: Pakistani Social Network



indians also believe that they invented the internet and space satellites over 9000 years ago........... :disagree::


 
They are right. Indian land mass and population both are 4x to 5x that of Pakistan. So technically to even the damage score, Pakistan needs 4x to 5x the Nukes to match the percentile damage to the country.
 

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