The Surest Measure of How China's Economy Is Losing

[terranMarine]

He stay silent on his opinion about his country of birth because India still a 3rd world country that in no position to challenge the US supremacy through both economy or military power. In a way India irreverent in this discussion.

Quite suspicious he does not give his opinion on India because it's now the fastest growing Asian economy percentage wise

Leave aside of this RealClearPolitics "estimate" entertainment show (but the title says "surest" measure of China decline, quite funny), now let's look at official data compiled under IMF BPM6, US net external position (NIIP) is already -8.042 trillion (2016Q2), and sinking at a break-neck speed of 1.8 trillion per year, that's a lot of "surest" growth, so what description best fit?

Oh yeah a farrrrr from reality "estimate" from a small politics website now becomes "SUREST" measure for China decline!
Supapowa

Militarily, your facing a US that has reoriented itself from counterinsurgencies back to near pear competition. The US has just begun a massive military modernization that will last for the next couple decades. Overall, we're looking at trillions of dollars in defense investments. Your not going to gain military overmatch vs the US. The US will have the capability to keep you bogged down in Asia for decades to come.

Wow like start a thermonuclear world war three huh? where do you live, 5 megaton enough? press that button you suicidal idiot can't wait and where you get your trillions to fight us? don't say keep borrowing more from us cos that sounds verrrrry weird while our navy just continue to have fun in pacific and alaska

 

[Jackdaws]

He stay silent on his opinion about his country of birth because India still a 3rd world country that in no position to challenge the US supremacy through both economy or military power. In a way India irreverent in this discussion.

Surely you mean irrelevant. And yes, Indian economy is too small to even be in this conversation - I doubt any sane Indian will dispute that. And I don't think any country will challenge the military power of the US for years to come.

 

[shadows888]

China's rise is unstoppable? Please, your economy is already in decline. That precious GDP rate of yours will only continue to fall as the years go by. Your total dollar output has failed to close the gap with the US the last 2 years. The yuan has depreciated vs the dollar, and your facing record capital outflows. An then there's the elephant in the room, your massive demographic issues in the decades to come.

Militarily, your facing a US that has reoriented itself from counterinsurgencies back to near pear competition. The US has just begun a massive military modernization that will last for the next couple decades. Overall, we're looking at trillions of dollars in defense investments. Your not going to gain military overmatch vs the US. The US will have the capability to keep you bogged down in Asia for decades to come.

Unstoppable my a**.

I think you need to look at the raw data. 10% growth 15 years ago is a lot lower than the 6.7% today since china's GDP is 1.2 trillion in 2000 while its closer to 12 trillion today. compare 120 billion to 800 billion due to the higher base. I don't know where you get the total dollar output has failed to close the gap with the USA, if you can provide a source to look over.

Capital outflows isn't always a bad thing, they are money that goes into investments etc. potentially making higher returns, as well as buying foreign companies for the tech needed. As long as it's keep to a manageable level, there are plenty of capital going into china as well.

I frankly think the demographic issues are overblown, china population should stabilize at 1.2 billion by 2100, and there are reports that the two child policy is boosting the reproduction rate. as long as it stays above 1 billion, that's a sizable enough market.

No amount of US military bases in Asia is going to do anything, as china's primary challenge is economic. But i don't expect China's overall military capability to exceed USA's for another 25 years. 15 years for the asia pacific region though.

Surely you mean irrelevant. And yes, Indian economy is too small to even be in this conversation - I doubt any sane Indian will dispute that. And I don't think any country will challenge the military power of the US for years to come.

Nuclear power's not going to fight each other directly, we all know the end result. proxy wars are popular tho.

 

[Nan Yang]

China's rise is unstoppable? Please, your economy is already in decline. That precious GDP rate of yours will only continue to fall as the years go by. Your total dollar output has failed to close the gap with the US the last 2 years. The yuan has depreciated vs the dollar, and your facing record capital outflows. An then there's the elephant in the room, your massive demographic issues in the decades to come.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...million-missing-girls/?utm_term=.eb7e3199efb5

Militarily, your facing a US that has reoriented itself from counterinsurgencies back to near pear competition. The US has just begun a massive military modernization that will last for the next couple decades. Overall, we're looking at trillions of dollars in defense investments. Your not going to gain military overmatch vs the US. The US will have the capability to keep you bogged down in Asia for decades to come.

Unstoppable my a**.

Keep spending.
China have huge geographical advantage that does not cost a cent.

 

[GeraltofRivia]

Have been following Credit Suisse's Global Wealth Report for the last few years and I found it a great country level economic analysis, supplemented with solid data and calculation. I am astonished to see such a robust economics report has been misread and misrepresented by the author of this article.

Private wealth is not a new or magical economics measure. It is basically the balance sheet view of the private part of a nation, which equals to the value of non-financial assets and financial assets less debt. GDP measures the economical activity, just like income statement view. Both are useful indicators and shows state of economy from different ways.

The primary set of numbers in the Global Wealth reports are based on current USD exchange rate, which means the private wealth of a nation can increase solely due to exchange rate appreciation and decrease due to depreciation. As noted in the Global Wealth report, "changes in household wealth across regions and countries are linked more closely to movement of asset prices and exchange rate".

If the author has read page 6 and 7, I am certain that he would have seen the key drivers behind China's small reduction in private wealth in 2016 (in current USD) are:
1. Exchange rate depreciation against USD in 2016 (-6.7%)
2. Reduction in stock market capitalization (a nicer name for total value of the stock market).
3. Increased non-financial asset prices (e.g. house price)

Depreciation against USD is hardly a negative thing for the reasons that we can understand, although the assets in China become cheaper when measured in USD.

Equally, the report has shown that Japan has experienced a significant increase in net wealth in 2016, solely due to exchange rate depreciation (19.3%+).

If we look at the numbers by constant exchange rate, China has seen solid increase in 2016.

When summarizing China's performance, the authors of the Global Wealth report stated (page 47) that wealth per adult has grown strongly in China, rising from USD5670 to USD22,864 between 2000-2016 (in current USD). I really cannot see anywhere in the report stating that China's economy is losing...

 

[Jlaw]

Our American poster here specializes in posting China crashing reports or how the US is patrolling in SCS other than that he just avoids getting into debates.

The lacky doesn't even read what he posts.