Time for a TAP-LNG Pipeline

[CrazyZ]

Global inflation problem can only be solved by increasing energy production.....existing stranded energy resources must be brought into the global energy markets. Turkmenistan has the worlds 6th largest natural gas reserves but is not a major participant in global energy markets since its energy resources are stranded with no real access to global markets through ocean ports. TAPI isn't going anywhere, IMO....India has no interest in it. Turkmenistan needs to sit down with Pakistan and Afghanistan on an alternative.....TAP-LNG. Instead of terminating in India, the pipeline would terminate at LNG terminals in Pakistan for global export.

Any thoughts?

 

[nahtanbob]

Who finances it ?
What are transit costs ?

 

[FuturePAF]

Who would invest in it? And more importantly, who (domestically and amongst Pakistan’s allies) would try to block it from being built as it would be against their interests? Before this pipeline, building the railway between Peshawar and Uzbekistan should be built first. Oil and liquified gas can be shipping via rail as well. Once a rail corridor is in place, pipelines can parallel the rail corridors, and expand the supply away from just Turkmenistan (which probably has political reservations and wants to stay neutral) to a more Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan option.

Once the first rail corridor is in place and a few years have passed since the change in government in Kabul and the Afghans get some international recognition, investment for pipelines will flow in. Especially if it means to contain Russian, Chinese, and Iranian interests in Central Asia with opportunities to develop petrochemical and mining resources in a ever more competitive world.

For Pakistan, laying the ground work and finding a way to smooth this over with its allies in OPEC will be crucial. Investment opportunities shouldn’t be offered to GCC investors to get their buy in, so it’s win win for all parties. Greater oil and gas supplies from Central Asia will also be a way to keep the pressure not to lift oil/gas restrictions on Iran, which is in GCC interests. For Pakistan, getting cheap oil and gas is essential to build up a petrochemical industry and gain international influence as the western friendly conduit for Central Asia oil and gas outside of Turkey. This is a point that Pakistan needs to focus on to counter balance India internationally (through economic geopolitical influence and by subsiding its own economic growth) and impress upon the Afghans as crucial to the survival of their regime and the first step to getting western investors for their mining projects (so they aren’t fully dependent on the Chinese).

So we need to forget the TAPI pipeline for now and focus on the rail link and a pipeline paralleling it from Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. Pakistan needs to move fast to leverage the political situation in Afghanistan while it is still relatively stable. Once the Uzbekistan rail and pipeline are in place, built and extension of the rail line from Kabul to Kandahar and then to Quetta for the mining projects as well as then building the TAP Pipeline down to Karachi and/or Gwadar; depending on the political winds at that time.

 

[CrazyZ]

Who finances it ?
What are transit costs ?

With inflation levels currently.....many nations would. China, GCC......even Germany would.

 

[nahtanbob]

With inflation levels currently.....many nations would. China, GCC......even Germany would.

no one would touch Afghanistan with a 10 foot pole. What do GCC countries gain creating a new competitor ?

If China wanted natural gas they will send it directly from Afghanistan to their country

 

[CrazyZ]

Who would invest in it? And more importantly, who (domestically and amongst Pakistan’s allies) would try to block it from being built as it would be against their interests? Before this pipeline, building the railway between Peshawar and Uzbekistan should be built first. Oil can be shipping via rail as well. Once a rail corridor is in place, pipelines can parallel the rail corridors, and expand the supply away from just Turkmenistan (which probably has political reservations and wants to stay neutral) to a more Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan option.

As long Ukraine war continues....energy prices will remain high.....As long as energy prices remain high....Potential financial rewards are huge for those that stomach the risk.

India and its lackeys in Afghanistan and Pakistan would be the main threat. I'm all for rail links to Uzbekistan. Turkmen gas can also be shipped using LNG truck tankers.

 

[CrazyZ]

no one would touch Afghanistan with a 10 foot pole. What do GCC countries gain creating a new competitor ?

If China wanted natural gas they will send it directly from Afghanistan to their country

The Qatar is the main gas exporter in GCC (and its not all that popular in Riyad and Abu Dubai). GCC countries are big investors in energy. This is a big energy investment opportunity.

Afghanistan is spilled milk for NATO/USA. Why cry over spilled milk, they have bigger things to worry about. Why do you the Pakistani COAS was invited to the USA.

 

[nahtanbob]

The Qatar is the main gas exporter in GCC (and its not all that popular in Riyad and Abu Dubai). GCC countries are big investors in energy. This is a big energy investment opportunity.

Afghanistan is spilled milk for NATO/USA. Why cry over spilled milk, they have bigger things to worry about. Why do you the Pakistani COAS was invited to the USA.

I will believe what you say when people put their $$$ on the line

 

[FuturePAF]

As long Ukraine war continues....energy prices will remain high.....As long as energy prices remain high....Potential financial rewards are huge for those that stomach the risk.

India and its lackeys in Afghanistan and Pakistan would be the main threat. I'm all for rail links to Uzbekistan. Turkmen gas can also be shipped using LNG truck tankers.

LNG could also be shipping by rail. So building that rail link ASAP should be a priority for the Afghans and Pakistan. It’s the best way to solve a lot of economic and international political problems. There is no shortage of labor around for the infrastructure to be built by hand. Time is of the essence, so it should be done on a war footing.

If the Afghans hire a Chinese firm to lay out the work that needs to be done and how it can be done with manual local labor, it’s possible any money that comes to Afghanistan central bank could be used to pay workers to carve out routes paralleling the salang pass, as well as the Chinese consulting and construction companies. A single track of freight with room for a parallel track should be done to start the process.

With Oil and gas flowing the Afghans will have an easier case for solving their international recognition problem and both Pakistan and Afghanistan can benefit from development of Afghan mineral resources, transported over the rail line.

 

[nahtanbob]

LNG could also be shipping by rail. So building that rail link ASAP should be a priority for the Afghans and Pakistan. It’s the best way to solve a lot of economic and international political problems. There is no shortage of labor around for the infrastructure to be built by hand. Time is of the essence, so it should be done on a war footing.

the infrastructure building is driven by heavy machinery

 

[CrazyZ]

I will believe what you say when people put their $$$ on the line

Time will tell......but the chance of a TAP gas pipeline is the highest its ever been, IMO. Ukraine war isn't gonna be resolved anytime soon. If energy inflation remains high......funding will come.

 

[FuturePAF]

the infrastructure building is driven by heavy machinery

When labor is cheaper and money needs to be kept within the country, using local resources is a viable option. Modernizing the railroad a few years down the line can be done when it’s up and running but right now they need a basic single track. Think of it like Afghanistan’s version of the Burma road.

The diplomat has on article on this rail route, so it’s not only in Afghanistan and Pakistan’s interest but the interest of central Asian countries that don’t want to be dependent on their three large neighbors. Heck, I wouldn’t be surprised if Germany foots the Bill for an under the table deal with the Afghans. The Europeans also don’t want to be dependent on the US or OPEC. So they could be the wildcard investors.

They do have an interest in limiting refugees from the region, so an economically stable Central Asia, Afghanistan and Pakistan is in their interest and the interest of their business community.

 

[CrazyZ]

When labor is cheaper and money needs to be kept within the country, using local resources is a viable option. Modernizing the railroad a few years down the line can be done when it’s up and running but right now they need a basic single track. Think of it like Afghanistan’s version of the Burma road.

Pakistan lacks the industrial production to meet its own needs.....forget about building rail and pipelines in other countries. Foreign investors will be needed for both rail and pipelines to central asia. Transport via roads is more feasible if you want to relay on Pakistani resources.

 

[CrazyZ]

When labor is cheaper and money needs to be kept within the country, using local resources is a viable option. Modernizing the railroad a few years down the line can be done when it’s up and running but right now they need a basic single track. Think of it like Afghanistan’s version of the Burma road.

The diplomat has on article on this rail route, so it’s not only in Afghanistan and Pakistan’s interest but the interest of central Asian countries that don’t want to be dependent on their three large neighbors. Heck, I wouldn’t be surprised if Germany foots the Bill for an under the table deal with the Afghans. The Europeans also don’t want to be dependent on the US or OPEC. So they could be the wildcard investors.

They do have an interest in limiting refugees from the region, so an economically stable Central Asia, Afghanistan and Pakistan is in their interest and the interest of their business community.

Agreed. Economic integration with Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Western China through transit connections should be a part a key part of Pakistan's strategic objectives for the next decade.

 

[FuturePAF]

Pakistan lacks the industrial production to meet its own needs.....forget about building rail and pipelines in other countries. Foreign investors will be needed for both rail and pipelines to central asia. Transport via roads is more feasible if you want to relay on Pakistani resources.

By local resources I mean, the actual preparation of the terrain. Leveling and cutting paths through the terrain, like the Chinese labor that helped build the transcontinental railway in the US 150 years ago.

Companies with experience of build rail in mountains should lead on the actual laying of track. Btw, this project may also be a good time for Pakistan, Afghanistan and Uzbekistan to consider switching to standard gauge track down the line. Chinese use standard rail gauge, so stands gauge rail all the way to Karachi and then across to Gwadar and standard gauge rail in Iran and Turkey and Europe will help transit trade between China and Europe (also would make India rail freight via Pakistan to Europe possible and more potential future leverage). Switching to standard gauge will also prevent India from using Pakistani rail lines in event of a future conflict but that a topic for a different thread.