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China overwhelmed in Taiwan war scenario: simulation

dude the narrowest crossing is 130 km. Did you give the Taiwan Strait an iron brother discount?
he think Taiwan is an island next to China...wait.......

We can count but unlike you, we also consider other factors in war, such as weather. China have only two windows, March-Apr or Sept-Oct, and each window is about 2-3 weeks before the weather become too harsh to sail the invasion fleet. In Desert Storm, our air campaign was 40 days and that was our decision. China will not have that luxury.

Not only that, the 'tooth to tail' ratio T3R is unlikely to work for China. T3R means the ratio of support troops per combat troops. But if strait weather discourage or even outright prevent such support, an invasion is practically impossible.


Now, am a USAF guy, F-111 (Cold War) then F-16 (Desert Storm), so I will use the Vietnam War as example. Over Viet Nam, the US was numerically superior to the VPAF. So what the MIG-21s did was hit-and-run tactic. The MIGs would dive and shoot at the bomb heavy American fighter-bombers, compelling them to jettison their bombs so they could maneuver. It does not matter if the MIGs had any kills. Their missions were to discourage the Americans from delivering bombs on North Vietnamese targets, and the VPAF succeeded many times.

What make you think the Taiwanese cannot do the same to Chinese pilots? And how long do you think Taiwan can keep that up? Not only that, we are not talking about the ROCAF but also Taiwanese air defense missile batteries. The four-ship formation is combat tested. For every PLAAF four-ship flight, all Taiwan has to do is hit one to reduce combat effectiveness of the attackers. All Taiwan has to do is survive that 2-3 weeks window and with US support, they certainly will.
Well, you still need to admire his effort to take pot shot, yes, he failed because he failed to keep info up-to-date, from what he said, his info is probably still back in the mid 00s. A Lot has changes since then.
 
No but im pretty sure they wont. The alternative is Japan, China and US in ruins.
The point is not whether or not US will support Taiwan directly, but rather would US involve or got involved in the war directly.

In most war game I know (The one by CNN, the ISW and the one with NBC's meet the press), including the one I did with a strategic institute a few months ago, All have China attack US asset in pacific and Japan. The reason is simple. China cannot stop US if they were to supply weapon and equipment like they do with Ukraine, and trust me, that is what they WILL do. The problem is, even if China can blockade Taiwan, they cannot board and search US Flagged ship or US Merchant Marine, the only way you can stop them is to sink them, because boarding a neutral ship in international water without a reason (no a war between China and Taiwan is not a reason) is an act of war, that is how US and to a lesser extend, Canada (but they were already in war) can still supply the UK during the early days of WW2 when US was not in war with Germany.

China is not going to fight well with US constantly supplying Taiwan. And that would have been a breaking point for China, and the only way to deal with this is to destroy US loading facilities in the area and try to kill as many of the US Navy in the first strike.
 
If the US commits it will need to be ready for all out war which will cause thousands of American deaths and the real likeihood the conflict spreads out of control with US bases being hit on the mainland and visa versa with China. With thousands of dead on the Chinese side as well its unlikely they will stop until they take Taiwan so there will only be escalation. That is a price I don't think the US will be willing to pay.

These simpletons think they can conquer China through Taiwan. As if Taiwan is some magic pill that will destroy China LOL We have already seen collective Western record in Ukraine and it doesn't bode well. Surely China will be taking notes and prepare for all scenarios. Time and resources are on China's side.
 
These simpletons think they can conquer China through Taiwan. As if Taiwan is some magic pill that will destroy China LOL We have already seen collective Western record in Ukraine and it doesn't bode well. Surely China will be taking notes and prepare for all scenarios. Time and resources are on China's side.

Taiwan is no match for China. China can easily take it or destroy it but what is the point. China is a rising power and as they slowly influence those around it and are expanding their friendships, Taiwan will join the mainland without a bullet being fired, the people are after all Chinese.

China would have big problem if USA, Nato, Japan, S Korea and Australia join to defend Taiwan. Most likely WW3 would start.

China would have to surround Taiwan for it to surrender, which Nato and allies will prevent. S Korea would get attacked by the North.

Screenshot_20230408-065845_Maps.jpg
 
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Dude, Taiwan is no match for China. LOL at Taiwan would overwhelm China.
Of course it's not a match! But we're talking about other countries here helping them,like Japan,USA and maybe South Korea as well. Alone,what can they do? They can only slow the PLA until help arrives. If it arrives.
 
The point is not whether or not US will support Taiwan directly, but rather would US involve or got involved in the war directly.

In most war game I know (The one by CNN, the ISW and the one with NBC's meet the press), including the one I did with a strategic institute a few months ago, All have China attack US asset in pacific and Japan. The reason is simple. China cannot stop US if they were to supply weapon and equipment like they do with Ukraine, and trust me, that is what they WILL do. The problem is, even if China can blockade Taiwan, they cannot board and search US Flagged ship or US Merchant Marine, the only way you can stop them is to sink them, because boarding a neutral ship in international water without a reason (no a war between China and Taiwan is not a reason) is an act of war, that is how US and to a lesser extend, Canada (but they were already in war) can still supply the UK during the early days of WW2 when US was not in war with Germany.

China is not going to fight well with US constantly supplying Taiwan. And that would have been a breaking point for China, and the only way to deal with this is to destroy US loading facilities in the area and try to kill as many of the US Navy in the first strike.
I don't think China would attack US ships if their own were not attacked especially in and around international waters. Their strategy would be to secure Taiwans territorial waters as soon as possible and then blockade around them to stop any inflow of weapons.

My main point was its a high price to pay to attack first by either side, China won't invade unless an event like Taiwan declaring independence occurs and the US I don't believe will attack unless their forces are attacked.
 
I don't think China would attack US ships if their own were not attacked especially in and around international waters. Their strategy would be to secure Taiwans territorial waters as soon as possible and then blockade around them to stop any inflow of weapons.

My main point was its a high price to pay to attack first by either side, China won't invade unless an event like Taiwan declaring independence occurs and the US I don't believe will attack unless their forces are attacked.
Might be able to block any ships from entering Taiwan ports by laying mines
The United States spent 4 days and 11,000 mines, to stop the sea transportation of North Vietnam, which has more ports than Taiwan.
 
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I don't think China would attack US ships if their own were not attacked especially in and around international waters. Their strategy would be to secure Taiwans territorial waters as soon as possible and then blockade around them to stop any inflow of weapons.

My main point was its a high price to pay to attack first by either side, China won't invade unless an event like Taiwan declaring independence occurs and the US I don't believe will attack unless their forces are attacked.
China would have a hard time trying to blockade from inside Taiwanese Territorial water, Taiwan have quite a lot of shore based Anti-Ship missile, and if Ukrainian Neptune can sink a Russian Cruiser (Unless you really buy the ship fire BS story), imagine those Harpoon, Hsiung Feng II/III Taiwan have can do to Chinese ship getting too close. In a blockade situation, you either need to shoot at US shipping or you just let them go and watch them resupply Taiwan.

On the other hand, it would be a great deal of damage to China even if US decided to do an Ukraine on Taiwan, unlike Ukraine, US will open everything to them, F-16, M-1 Abrams, M270 and HIMARS all will be open to transfer, and US have a lot of them in storage. Imagine US sending 400 F-16 to Taiwan? Or the 8 OHP Class Frigate that they have in storage? Or 1000 Abrams MBT? Or 10 Patriot Missile Batteries? All those Taiwan is currently operating, which mean zero transition time, and that's just what already have in Taiwan inventory, there will be talks for just about everything else, up to Arleigh Burke Class destoryer or even F-35 Stealth Aircraft if US think China is too far gone and going to invade, I mean, if they do, there are no point in withholding them just to please China.

If US think war between Taiwan and China is no longer avoidable, US will open up their National Guard Armoury and Arms Depot and tell Taiwan to come pick and choose, the difference between Taiwan and Ukraine is they already operate quite a few advance US tech, and probably more important than anything else, Taiwan can pay for those item they wanted, which make it a lot easier for Congress to allow the transfer.
 
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China would have a hard time trying to blockade from inside Taiwanese Territorial water, Taiwan have quite a lot of Shore base Anti-Ship missile, and if Ukrainian Neptune can sink a Russian Cruiser (Unless you really buy the ship fire BS story), imagine those Harpoon, Hsiung Feng II/III Taiwan have can do to Chinese ship getting too close. In a blockade situation, you either need to shoot at US shipping or you just let them go and watch them resupply Taiwan.

On the other hand, it would be a great deal of damage to China even if US decided to do an Ukraine on Taiwan, unlike Ukraine, US will open everything to them, F-16, M-1 Abrams, M270 and HIMARS all will be open to transfer, and US have a lot of them in storage. Imagine US sending 400 F-16 to Taiwan? Or the 8 OHP Class Frigate that they have in storage? Or 1000 Abrams MBT? All those Taiwan is currently operating, which mean zero transition time, and that's just what already have in Taiwan inventory, there will be talks for just about everything else, up to Arleigh Burke Class destoryer or even F-35 Stealth Aircraft if US think China is too far gone and going to invade, I mean, if they do, there are no point in withholding them just to please China.
Please don't say anything about 400 f-16s unless you also provide pilot services. Taiwan doesn't even have the pilots to maintain a fleet of its current size.

Might be able to block any ships from entering Taiwan ports by laying mines
The United States spent 4 days and 11,000 mines, to stop the sea transportation of North Vietnam, which has more ports than Taiwan.
 
Please don't say anything about 400 f-16s unless you also provide pilot services. Taiwan doesn't even have the pilots to maintain a fleet of its current size.

Dude, have you ever been in Taiwan or know any Taiwanese??

They retain pilot from active service are held for 5 years, and can basically be recalled to service anytime, given Taiwan already operate 150 ACTIVE F-16 TODAY, how hard is it to find pilot in the previous 2 rotations? Even in Peacetime US, we have similar reservist regime, I was put in Individual reserve for 15 years after I was discharged in 2006 due to my security clearance, and I could be called back up into service if they needed me, do you not think Taiwan would have something similar??
Might be able to block any ships from entering Taiwan ports by laying mines
The United States spent 4 days and 11,000 mines, to stop the sea transportation of North Vietnam, which has more ports than Taiwan.
Let me ask you a simple question.,

What if a US deminer go and demine the channel? What would PLAN do then?

Come back tomorrow and lay some more??
 
Dude, have you ever been in Taiwan or know any Taiwanese??

They retain pilot from active service are held for 5 years, and can basically be recalled to service anytime, given Taiwan already operate 150 ACTIVE F-16 TODAY, how hard is it to find pilot in the previous 2 rotations? Even in Peacetime US, we have similar reservist regime, I was put in Individual reserve for 15 years after I was discharged in 2006 due to my security clearance, and I could be called back up into service if they needed me, do you not think Taiwan would have something similar??

Let me ask you a simple question.,

What if a US deminer go and demine the channel? What would PLAN do then?

Come back tomorrow and lay some more??
So, a country not at war sends soldiers into the field to clear mines? Can you give an example from history?
 
So, a country not at war sends soldiers into the field to clear mines? Can you give an example from history?
WW2 want to say hello to you.......

You do know US sent Armed Convoy to protect the merchant ship to the UK before US was directly involved in WW2?
 
Dude, have you ever been in Taiwan or know any Taiwanese??

They retain pilot from active service are held for 5 years, and can basically be recalled to service anytime, given Taiwan already operate 150 ACTIVE F-16 TODAY, how hard is it to find pilot in the previous 2 rotations? Even in Peacetime US, we have similar reservist regime, I was put in Individual reserve for 15 years after I was discharged in 2006 due to my security clearance, and I could be called back up into service if they needed me, do you not think Taiwan would have something similar??

Let me ask you a simple question.,

What if a US deminer go and demine the channel? What would PLAN do then?

Come back tomorrow and lay some more??
According to inquiries from Taiwan's Legislative Yuan, the Taiwan military has only recruited 21 pilots from 2011 to 2020. And then an army running 150 jet是needs to find 400 pilots from the retired? ? ? This is ridiculous thinking.

WW2 want to say hello to you.......

You do know US sent Armed Convoy to protect the merchant ship to the UK before US was directly involved in WW2?
Escorting on the high seas is not the same as clearing mines on the battlefield。 Did the US send armed convoys to escort the ships to port before entering the war?
 
According to inquiries from Taiwan's Legislative Yuan, the Taiwan military has only recruited 21 pilots from 2011 to 2020. And then an army running 150 jet是needs to find 400 pilots from the retired? ? ? This is ridiculous thinking.

lol, Taiwan military don't recruit pilot normally, they train them, I suggest you go look up Pilot Program from the National Defense University of Taiwan and see were there only 21 cadets from 2011- 2020....

Dude, ridiculous is you think Taiwan only have acquire 21 pilot for the 500 or so aircraft they are flying......not included drone.


Which mean this video have half the ROCAF pilot recruited between 2011 to 2020...

:rofl: :rofl:

I guess this is one of the 21 then...


@gambit LOL Chinese physics hard at work dayum.
 
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lol, Taiwan military don't recruit pilot normally, they train them, I suggest you go look up Pilot Program from the National Defense University of Taiwan and see were there only 21 cadets from 2011- 2020....

Dude, ridiculous is you think Taiwan only have acquire 21 pilot for the 500 or so aircraft they are flying......not included drone.


Which mean this video have half the ROCAF pilot recruited between 2011 to 2020...

:rofl: :rofl:

I guess this is one of the 21 then...


@gambit LOL Chinese physics hard at work dayum.
LOL, I mean a total of 21 people added in 10 years.
From 2011 to 2020, a total of 129 people served and 108 retired. 42 people retired after 2016.
So, how do you go about finding 400 retired pilots?
 

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