Afghanistans President Hamid Karzais visit to New Delhi last week may have conveyed the impression that it was a backlash against Islamabad with whom he had heated exchanges, accusing it of carrying out the assassination of Burhanuddin Rabbani, the head of the Afghan Peace Council. Rabbani was a key figure in the Karzai regime and his assassination resulted in Karzai immediately flying back home from New York.
Karzai accused the Pakistan military of planning out the attack from Quetta in Pakistan which Pakistan denied. Rabbani was not only the chief Afghan negotiator but also Karzais chief negotiator in building bridges between the rival Pushtuns and non Pushtun and other ethnic groups. Karzai called off peace negotiations with the Taliban after the Rabbani killing.
Karzai shaky:
Karzais position as head of the Afghan state has been very shaky following recent daring attacks by the Taliban in Kabul and the rest of the country killing key personalities in the government. Karzais allies, the United States and Britain and some European countries too are disenchanted with his ability to head an effective government free of corruption.
The United States is very concerned with the ability of Karzai to hold Afghanistan together after the scheduled pull out of US troops from the country.
It is under such circumstances that the New Delhi visit was undertaken. It may have conveyed the impression to some that he was attempting to draw in India as a counter force to Pakistan but such an impression would not have been made on the key players involved America, Pakistan, other European allies or even China.
Indias interests:
India has certainly attempted to make inroads into Afghanistan by going into infrastructure development such as building of key roads and even the Afghan parliament. Over a billion dollars of investments have been made. The Taliban have has strongly resisted the Indian entry into Afghanistan and even accepted responsibility for the August 2008 bombing of the Indian Embassy in Kabul that killed over 40 people including the Indian defence attaché. A second bombing of the Kabul embassy followed in 2009 that resulted in the killing of 17 people and wounding of 63. It is quite unlikely that despite the strategic partnership agreements signed between the two countries during the Karzai visit which included training of Afghan security personnel by Indian forces, India would risk the wrath of the fanatical fundamentalist Taliban groups or Pakistans intelligence forces; Afghanistan being considered by Pakistan as its sphere of influence vis-à-vis India. It is no secret that Pakistans intelligence forces set up the Taliban in Afghanistan to create astrategic depth for their country against India.
India as a regional and emerging global power would want to establish its presence in the neighbourhood. It would be extremely naïve for it to take on the role which the Soviet Union, a one time super power that failed in the task with now the only superpower, America, trying to disengage itself.
Indias problems:
India despite having the fourth largest army in the world is yet unable to ward off terrorist attacks which they allege are emanating from Pakistan. Afghanistan and Pakistan have been fertile grounds for nurturing terrorism in the past two decades. And any provocation provided to fanatical Islamist groups by Hindu India would be inviting retaliation.
The end of the Afghan war against the Soviet Union saw the proliferation of Islamic terrorism within Afghanistan. When Soviet forces withdrew and Americans and countries like Saudi Arabia which had been financing the Islamic groups too lost interest in the future of Afghanistan ,that led to the growth of fundamentalist groups like the Al-Qaeda of Osama bin Laden. Some of these militants hell bent on liberating Kashmir went through Pakistan into the regions close to Indian controlled Kashmir. Indian authorities allege that Pakistan gave sanctuary to these terrorists and helped to build up terrorist groups.
U.S. pull out and its implications.
Even though the call for American troops to pull out of Afghanistan is not only supported in Afghanistan and Pakistan but among sections in most South Asian countries; if the Americans do pull out of Afghanistan leaving a vacuum in power, would history be repeated as after the Soviet pull out? The Obama plan is to pull out all troops by 2014.
What happens then? Afghanistan is the cockpit of the world with very powerful nations around it: China, Pakistan, India, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iran and some of the former Soviet Republics. Should they leave Afghanistan as one of the least developed and impoverished countries to itself? That is quite unlikely because in recent times its strategic importance has increased. Through it has to pass oil and gas pipelines which global and regional powers are interested in.
It could also provide a gateway to China through Pakistan to the Indian Ocean and now it has been found to be a country extremely rich in mineral resources.
Unconquered:
Poor Afghans, will they be able to ever have their own country and govern themselves? One fact however they have proved to the world: Afghanistan has remained unconquered throughout history.
India Can
Karzai accused the Pakistan military of planning out the attack from Quetta in Pakistan which Pakistan denied. Rabbani was not only the chief Afghan negotiator but also Karzais chief negotiator in building bridges between the rival Pushtuns and non Pushtun and other ethnic groups. Karzai called off peace negotiations with the Taliban after the Rabbani killing.
Karzai shaky:
Karzais position as head of the Afghan state has been very shaky following recent daring attacks by the Taliban in Kabul and the rest of the country killing key personalities in the government. Karzais allies, the United States and Britain and some European countries too are disenchanted with his ability to head an effective government free of corruption.
The United States is very concerned with the ability of Karzai to hold Afghanistan together after the scheduled pull out of US troops from the country.
It is under such circumstances that the New Delhi visit was undertaken. It may have conveyed the impression to some that he was attempting to draw in India as a counter force to Pakistan but such an impression would not have been made on the key players involved America, Pakistan, other European allies or even China.
Indias interests:
India has certainly attempted to make inroads into Afghanistan by going into infrastructure development such as building of key roads and even the Afghan parliament. Over a billion dollars of investments have been made. The Taliban have has strongly resisted the Indian entry into Afghanistan and even accepted responsibility for the August 2008 bombing of the Indian Embassy in Kabul that killed over 40 people including the Indian defence attaché. A second bombing of the Kabul embassy followed in 2009 that resulted in the killing of 17 people and wounding of 63. It is quite unlikely that despite the strategic partnership agreements signed between the two countries during the Karzai visit which included training of Afghan security personnel by Indian forces, India would risk the wrath of the fanatical fundamentalist Taliban groups or Pakistans intelligence forces; Afghanistan being considered by Pakistan as its sphere of influence vis-à-vis India. It is no secret that Pakistans intelligence forces set up the Taliban in Afghanistan to create astrategic depth for their country against India.
India as a regional and emerging global power would want to establish its presence in the neighbourhood. It would be extremely naïve for it to take on the role which the Soviet Union, a one time super power that failed in the task with now the only superpower, America, trying to disengage itself.
Indias problems:
India despite having the fourth largest army in the world is yet unable to ward off terrorist attacks which they allege are emanating from Pakistan. Afghanistan and Pakistan have been fertile grounds for nurturing terrorism in the past two decades. And any provocation provided to fanatical Islamist groups by Hindu India would be inviting retaliation.
The end of the Afghan war against the Soviet Union saw the proliferation of Islamic terrorism within Afghanistan. When Soviet forces withdrew and Americans and countries like Saudi Arabia which had been financing the Islamic groups too lost interest in the future of Afghanistan ,that led to the growth of fundamentalist groups like the Al-Qaeda of Osama bin Laden. Some of these militants hell bent on liberating Kashmir went through Pakistan into the regions close to Indian controlled Kashmir. Indian authorities allege that Pakistan gave sanctuary to these terrorists and helped to build up terrorist groups.
U.S. pull out and its implications.
Even though the call for American troops to pull out of Afghanistan is not only supported in Afghanistan and Pakistan but among sections in most South Asian countries; if the Americans do pull out of Afghanistan leaving a vacuum in power, would history be repeated as after the Soviet pull out? The Obama plan is to pull out all troops by 2014.
What happens then? Afghanistan is the cockpit of the world with very powerful nations around it: China, Pakistan, India, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iran and some of the former Soviet Republics. Should they leave Afghanistan as one of the least developed and impoverished countries to itself? That is quite unlikely because in recent times its strategic importance has increased. Through it has to pass oil and gas pipelines which global and regional powers are interested in.
It could also provide a gateway to China through Pakistan to the Indian Ocean and now it has been found to be a country extremely rich in mineral resources.
Unconquered:
Poor Afghans, will they be able to ever have their own country and govern themselves? One fact however they have proved to the world: Afghanistan has remained unconquered throughout history.
India Can
