.,.,.
RAW may exploit fault lines in Pakistan
Defence ministry says polls in provincial assemblies to leave country vulnerable in report submitted to SC
Hasnaat Malik
April 19, 2023
The defence ministry has said India’s top spy agency has planned to exploit fault lines of the country to hurt the federation of Pakistan if elections at the Punjab Assembly are held prior to elections for the national legislature and other provincial assemblies.
“The RAW [Research and Analysis Wing] identified fault lines to hurt the federation of Pakistan especially [by fanning] ethnic issues, water disputes, [the alleged] resource capture and monopoly of Punjab and as terrorists say in Balochistan, the colonisation by Punjab.
“Therefore, holding of general elections of Punjab Assembly would fuel the situation,” the ministry said in the report submitted to the Supreme Court on Tuesday.
It said senior leaders have also opined against the visualised monopoly of Punjab. “Hence, an even more charged environment in Punjab can trigger instability in the country, besides a constitutional crisis.”
The report said that the terrorist threat in Pakistan is likely to increase in the immediate future but the situation will improve by winter [October 2023].
It said Pakistan would continue to be a victim of a Global Great Game, where India enjoys primacy with the permissive environment to hurt Pakistan through terrorism, targeting Chinese interests in the country.
"Pakistan is threatened not only by insecurity due to external aggression but also by internal instability. Both are interlinked. Internal chaos invites external aggression.
“Therefore, India would continue with strategic coercion including through terrorism in Pakistan and exploit any opportunity at the operational/tactical level for limited military action to all-out war.
It said the terror threat has increased as compared to 2018 and 2021 because the environment in Afghanistan is worst after August 2021 after the return of the Afghan Taliban to Pakistan.
With the TTA government, US control is gone, 1500 terrorists have been released from jails and the latest military equipment is available to the TTP, making the threat more potent.
"Relatively unchecked freedom of movement is available to TTP, JUA, BLA, BNA, BLF, ISKP. TTP/ISKP are settled on border districts of Pakistan Afghan Border.
“TTA is not in a position to conduct operations against TTP. In 2021/2022, Pakistan opted for reconciliation with the TTP to minimise terrorism, but it ended as a failed strategy leading to increased cases of terrorism in K-P, Balochistan and elsewhere in Punjab.
“Major blow to counter-terrorism was in August 2022.
