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Pakistan Navy as an Emerging Deterrent

Tipu7

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By Tipu7


Naval power is an important political instrument and critical national security ingredient of any maritime state. Historically, seas have played fundamental role in shaping the geopolitical environment. Themistocles (524-460 BC) once stated, “whosoever can hold the sea has command of everything.” Alfred T. Mahan, while theorizing his concept of sea power, famously argued, “whoever rules the seas, rules the world.” In early 20th century, admiral Erich Raeder also deduced, “all wars will be settled by sea-power.” The importance of oceans has magnified even further in modern times. Despite of improvements in other transportation mediums, seas continue to constitute the bulk of international trade. The economic conceptualization of oceans formulated the model of blue economy. The blue economy deals with the exploration and exploitation of maritime economic potential of a state including international trade through sea lines of communications (SLOCs), organic resources like fishing, inorganic resources like hydrocarbon deposits, coastal tourism, energy generation, shipping industry and all fiscal activities related to littoral and deep waters. The blue economic inspiration and the sea power development are interdependent, and share directly proportional relationship with each other.

Apart from economic axis, naval power serves strategic interests of maritime nations including: provision of maritime security, assertion of sovereignty on claimed territories, execution of naval diplomacy and projection of naval coercion. The naval coercion includes gunboat diplomacy as well as maritime deterrence which in turn can be conventional and nuclear in nature.

The inspiration for naval force development is driven by the maritime interests, threat environment and the economic stability of a nation. Historically, Pakistan has struggled to raise credible naval prowess primarily due to economic restrictions and the maritime blindness of political and military leadership. Therefore, Pakistan Navy remained a force of approximately a dozen frigate size warships, few submarines and handful number of maritime patrol assets. The presence of such limited war fighting capacity hampered Pakistan naval ambitions and kept posing acute challenges regarding regional naval balance of power.

In recent years, a policy shift has taken place to realize the blue economic potential of Pakistan – a trend symbolizing growing Maritime Domain Awareness. The initiation of China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project – the flag ship of China’s global Belt Road Initiative (BRI) – has opened new prospects of economic progression. The development of Gwadar port city and its proximity with Strait of Hormuz – the choke point through which 30% of global oil shippments pass – on one side has augmented the maritime influence of Islamabad but on opposite side has increased the scope of maritime threats of both symmetric and asymmetric nature. In parallel, the aggressive naval build up by India and its policy of nuclearization of Indian Ocean under the blanket of strategic stability, clearly authenticates New Delhi’s growing hegemonic ambitions in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). The emerging maritime security environment dictates that Pakistan navy must work in conventional as well as nuclear dimension to maintain the regional maritime balance of power and subsequently safeguard its growing national interests.

The capacity buildup roadmap of Pakistan Navy has been discussed by previous CNS Admiral Zafar Mahmood Abbasi and current CNS Admiral Muhammad Amjad Khan Niazi on separate occasions. The modernization efforts will comprehensively cover all three dimensions of naval warfare, i.e. surface, sub-surface and air. PN now envisions a surface fleet of fifty warships, including twenty major warships, which will be organized into three Surface Task Groups (STGs). Each STG will be stationed in Gwadar, Ormara and Karachi respectively. The requisite flotilla size will be attained by procurement of four Type-54AP frigates from China, four Milgum class corvettes from Turkey, heavy tonnage ships of unknown origin and indigenous Jinnah class frigate program. These upcoming warships, many of which are already in construction phase, will add in existing fleet of four Zulfiquar class frigates and two newly acquired Yarmook class corvettes. Plus, PN intends to locally construct dozens of fast attack crafts to supplement its littoral defenses. The modern warships will be equipped with state of art sensors, electronic warfare (EW) suite, and next generation armaments. Overall, the STGs will be configured as per the given threat spectrum and will augment navy’s anti surface warfare (ASuW), anti-air warfare (AAW) and anti-submarine warfare (ASW) capabilities by many folds.

Regarding submarines, PN is in process modernizing its existing Khalid class subs from Turkey, is expecting eight Hangor class subs from China by 2028, and is planning to acquire shallow water attack submarines (SWATs) to replace existing Cosmos class midgets. The force of eleven Air Independent Propusion (AIP) submarines comprising of Khalid and Hangoor class subs will constitute the mainstay of Pakistan’s underwater sea denial potency while SWATs will diversify PN’s littoral and special operational capabilities. In parellel, PN is raising a fleet of state of the art maritime patrol aircrafts, ISR drones, and new helicopters in transport and ASW configurations. The employment of Jf-17 Thunder aircrafts with new arrays of anti-ship missiles and beyond visual range engagement capability has further consolidated Pakistan’s air envelop in Northern Arabian Sea. Major progression has been achieved in the area of anti-ship cruise missiles (ASCM). Variety of coastal, ship borne, air launched and submarine launched cruise missiles have already been deployed or are in advance phase of development.

The fundamental question thus emerges, is Pakistan’s naval force modernization sufficient enough to credibly deter Indian Navy? Deterrence is the denial of hostile actions of the adversary by threatening retaliatory use of force. Based upon nature, deterrence is broadly classified into nuclear and conventional domains. In the nuclear domain, both New Delhi and Islamabad now view seas as a medium of assured retaliatory nuclear capability. The employment methodology, however, is very different. Unlike India, which is organizing its sea-based nuclear deterrent on nuclear ballistic submarines (SSBNs) armed with sea launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), Pakistan is designing its sea-based nuclear deterrent – as far as open source information is concerned -around AIP based submarines (SSP) equipped with sea launched cruise missiles (SLCMs). This contrast is a byproduct of strategic environment variability, i.e. India deterrence spectrum is two fold and includes China and Pakistan, while Pakistan seeks to deter India only. The nuclear developments in Arabian Sea proves that PN will be – if not already is – the custodian of Pakistan’s assured second strike capability and will play crucial role in securing regional strategic stability.

The framework of conventional deterrence is comparatively more complicated. John J. Mearsheimer, while detailing the concept of conventional deterrence, emphasized that the technology driven capabilities have transformed the military calculations. The smaller forces with technological advantages can effectively deter bigger adversaries particularly in defensive warfare. The nuclear deterrence is chiefly based upon deterrence by punishment and is purposed to nullify the risk of major conflict. Conventional deterrence in contrast is pre-dominantly reliant upon deterrence by punishment and is meant to thwart low end and limited conflicts. For attainment of full spectrum deterrence, attainment of credible nuclear and conventional deterrence is critical.

In recent decades, India has assertively emphasized on diversification of its maritime influence. The primary motivations being to achieve regional hegemony and to counter growing Chinese influence in IOR. On one side, India has become part of US-led quad alliance, while on other side it is extensively modernizing and expanding its naval forces. By 2030, Indian Navy is expected to achieve target of 175 warships including twenty 6,000+ tons warships and two aircraft carriers further supplemented by roughly two dozen submarines (conventional and nuclear) and a growing fleet of air borne maritime assets.

Pakistan Navy cannot equate Indian Navy on tonnage basis. It neither has the equivalent capacity nor the requirement. Unlike Indian navy, which is postured to achieve sea control and is tasked to counter multiple fronts simultaneously, Pakistan navy is tailored to exercise sea denial and is primarily meant to deal with India centric threats only. Even after completion of fore mentioned modernization programs, PN will remain pre-dominantly committed towards reinforcing its anti access/area-denial (A2/AD) capabilities a move akin to its strategic requirements. For manifesting credible deterrence, PN must retain synchronization with the technological progression and evolving warfare concepts. The modern warfare is less about attrition, numerical strength and mass fire power, and more about flexibility, force synergy and precise fire power. Instead of force concentration, maneuver warfare is preferred. The naval force with more robustness, better network centricity, advance non-contact combat potential and superior electromagnetic prowess, is more likely to prevail irrespective of the size. The nuclear threshold deny feasibility of major wars and instead grant space to limited confrontations only – a low conventional threshold where numerical superiority can be countered by effective employment of force in being. Therefore, Pakistan must keep consolidating its naval prowess in nuclear as well as conventional domains for a sustainable full spectrum deterrence in order to ensure geopolitical equilibrium and regional balance of power.

@HRK @waz @Rashid Mahmood @Parminder Singh
 
Last edited:
View attachment 724449
By Tipu7


Naval power is an important political instrument and critical national security ingredient of any maritime state. Historically, seas have played fundamental role in shaping the geopolitical environment. Themistocles (524-460 BC) once stated, “whosoever can hold the sea has command of everything.” Alfred T. Mahan, while theorizing his concept of sea power, famously argued, “whoever rules the seas, rules the world.” In early 20th century, admiral Erich Raeder also deduced, “all wars will be settled by sea-power.” The importance of oceans has magnified even further in modern times. Despite of improvements in other transportation mediums, seas continue to constitute the bulk of international trade. The economic conceptualization of oceans formulated the model of blue economy. The blue economy deals with the exploration and exploitation of maritime economic potential of a state including international trade through sea lines of communications (SLOCs), organic resources like fishing, inorganic resources like hydrocarbon deposits, coastal tourism, energy generation, shipping industry and all fiscal activities related to littoral and deep waters. The blue economic inspiration and the sea power development are interdependent, and share directly proportional relationship with each other.

Apart from economic axis, naval power serves strategic interests of maritime nations including: provision of maritime security, assertion of sovereignty on claimed territories, execution of naval diplomacy and projection of naval coercion. The naval coercion includes gunboat diplomacy as well as maritime deterrence which in turn can be conventional and nuclear in nature.

The inspiration for naval force development is driven by the maritime interests, threat environment and the economic stability of a nation. Historically, Pakistan has struggled to raise credible naval prowess primarily due to economic restrictions and the maritime blindness of political and military leadership. Therefore, Pakistan Navy remained a force of approximately a dozen frigate size warships, few submarines and handful number of maritime patrol assets. The presence of such limited war fighting capacity hampered Pakistan naval ambitions and kept posing acute challenges regarding regional naval balance of power.

In recent years, a policy shift has taken place to realize the blue economic potential of Pakistan – a trend symbolizing growing Maritime Domain Awareness. The initiation of China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project – the flag ship of China’s global Belt Road Initiative (BRI) – has opened new prospects of economic progression. The development of Gwadar port city and its proximity with Strait of Hormuz – the choke point through which 30% of global oil shippments pass – on one side has augmented the maritime influence of Islamabad but on opposite side has increased the scope of maritime threats of both symmetric and asymmetric nature. In parallel, the aggressive naval build up by India and its policy of nuclearization of Indian Ocean under the blanket of strategic stability, clearly authenticates New Delhi’s growing hegemonic ambitions in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). The emerging maritime security environment dictates that Pakistan navy must work in conventional as well as nuclear dimension to maintain the regional maritime balance of power and subsequently safeguard its growing national interests.

The capacity buildup roadmap of Pakistan Navy has been discussed by previous CNS Admiral Zafar Mahmood Abbasi and current CNS Admiral Muhammad Amjad Khan Niazi on separate occasions. The modernization efforts will comprehensively cover all three dimensions of naval warfare, i.e. surface, sub-surface and air. PN now envisions a surface fleet of fifty warships, including twenty major warships, which will be organized into three Surface Task Groups (STGs). Each STG will be stationed in Gwadar, Ormara and Karachi respectively. The requisite flotilla size will be attained by procurement of four Type-54AP frigates from China, four Milgum class corvettes from Turkey, heavy tonnage ships of unknown origin and indigenous Jinnah class frigate program. These upcoming warships, many of which are already in construction phase, will add in existing fleet of four Zulfiquar class frigates and two newly acquired Yarmook class corvettes. Plus, PN intends to locally construct dozens of fast attack crafts to supplement its littoral defenses. The modern warships will be equipped with state of art sensors, electronic warfare (EW) suite, and next generation armaments. Overall, the STGs will be configured as per the given threat spectrum and will augment navy’s anti surface warfare (ASuW), anti-air warfare (AAW) and anti-submarine warfare (ASW) capabilities by many folds.

Regarding submarines, PN is in process modernizing its existing Khalid class subs from Turkey, is expecting eight Hangor class subs from China by 2028, and is planning to acquire shallow water attack submarines (SWATs) to replace existing Cosmos class midgets. The force of eleven Air Independent Propusion (AIP) submarines comprising of Khalid and Hangoor class subs will constitute the mainstay of Pakistan’s underwater sea denial potency while SWATs will diversify PN’s littoral and special operational capabilities. In parellel, PN is raising a fleet of state of the art maritime patrol aircrafts, ISR drones, and new helicopters in transport and ASW configurations. The employment of Jf-17 Thunder aircrafts with new arrays of anti-ship missiles and beyond visual range engagement capability has further consolidated Pakistan’s air envelop in Northern Arabian Sea. Major progression has been achieved in the area of anti-ship cruise missiles (ASCM). Variety of coastal, ship borne, air launched and submarine launched cruise missiles have already been deployed or are in advance phase of development.

The fundamental question thus emerges, is Pakistan’s naval force modernization sufficient enough to credibly deter Indian Navy? Deterrence is the denial of hostile actions of the adversary by threatening retaliatory use of force. Based upon nature, deterrence is broadly classified into nuclear and conventional domains. In the nuclear domain, both New Delhi and Islamabad now view seas as a medium of assured retaliatory nuclear capability. The employment methodology, however, is very different. Unlike India, which is organizing its sea-based nuclear deterrent on nuclear ballistic submarines (SSBNs) armed with sea launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), Pakistan is designing its sea-based nuclear deterrent – as far as open source information is concerned -around AIP based submarines (SSP) equipped with sea launched cruise missiles (SLCMs). This contrast is a byproduct of strategic environment variability, i.e. India deterrence spectrum is two fold and includes China and Pakistan, while Pakistan seeks to deter India only. The nuclear developments in Arabian Sea proves that PN will be – if not already is – the custodian of Pakistan’s assured second strike capability and will play crucial role in securing regional strategic stability.

The framework of conventional deterrence is comparatively more complicated. John J. Mearsheimer, while detailing the concept of conventional deterrence, emphasized that the technology driven capabilities have transformed the military calculations. The smaller forces with technological advantages can effectively deter bigger adversaries particularly in defensive warfare. The nuclear deterrence is chiefly based upon deterrence by punishment and is purposed to nullify the risk of major conflict. Conventional deterrence in contrast is pre-dominantly reliant upon deterrence by punishment and is meant to thwart low end and limited conflicts. For attainment of full spectrum deterrence, attainment of credible nuclear and conventional deterrence is critical.

In recent decades, India has assertively emphasized on diversification of its maritime influence. The primary motivations being to achieve regional hegemony and to counter growing Chinese influence in IOR. On one side, India has become part of US-led quad alliance, while on other side it is extensively modernizing and expanding its naval forces. By 2030, Indian Navy is expected to achieve target of 175 warships including twenty 6,000+ tons warships and two aircraft carriers further supplemented by roughly two dozen submarines (conventional and nuclear) and a growing fleet of air borne maritime assets.

Pakistan Navy cannot equate Indian Navy on tonnage basis. It neither has the equivalent capacity nor the requirement. Unlike Indian navy, which is postured to achieve sea control and is tasked to counter multiple fronts simultaneously, Pakistan navy is tailored to exercise sea denial and is primarily meant to deal with India centric threats only. Even after completion of fore mentioned modernization programs, PN will remain pre-dominantly committed towards reinforcing its anti access/area-denial (A2/AD) capabilities a move akin to its strategic requirements. For manifesting credible deterrence, PN must retain synchronization with the technological progression and evolving warfare concepts. The modern warfare is less about attrition, numerical strength and mass fire power, and more about flexibility, force synergy and precise fire power. Instead of force concentration, maneuver warfare is preferred. The naval force with more robustness, better network centricity, advance non-contact combat potential and superior electromagnetic prowess, is more likely to prevail irrespective of the size. The nuclear threshold deny feasibility of major wars and instead grant space to limited confrontations only – a low conventional threshold where numerical superiority can be countered by effective employment of force in being. Therefore, Pakistan must keep consolidating its naval prowess in nuclear as well as conventional domains for a sustainable full spectrum deterrence in order to ensure geopolitical equilibrium and regional balance of power.

@HRK @waz @Rashid Mahmood @Parminder Singh
Navy is being modernised... for few years... I am waiting for P-802 tho 😍
 
Pakistan should adopt exclusively offensive doctrine. This will throw the indians off completely
Paks by nature are aggressive even if they're equipped only with "sticks"!! Hence, proxy traitors of all sorts and at all levels are introduced by the LGBTs to moderate and modulate them....
 
finally the navy is getting it share of the procurement budget

2020 is the decade of the Pakistan Navy

and as I always say, we need submarine launched cruise missiles from our up and coming SSK which can Carry nuclear warheads
 
Pakistan Navy warships, especially submarines need to be armed with nuclear tipped cruise and anti-ship missiles. that is guaranteed to keep those massive western fleets on the shores of antartica!
 
Pakistan Navy warships, especially submarines need to be armed with nuclear tipped cruise and anti-ship missiles. that is guaranteed to keep those massive western fleets on the shores of antartica!
Bhai.
We do not need to bite off more than we can chew. With all this development, our narrative needs to still be a deterrent force against our main adversary. I think it is very important we maintain that posture for as long as is necessary due to our weak financial status and dependence on foreign powers for trade and support. The world is changing and
We need an alliance now. However let them make the first offensive gesture. If you show your teeth too early you will unnecessarily invite undue pressure and attention which you cannot stand
Alliances are one thing but wars are a totally different ball game and you will and must fight your own war and no one else will come to your help till their interests are harmed. Currently all investments in Paklands are rudimentory and not worth fighting over.

A
 
Pakistan should adopt exclusively offensive doctrine. This will throw the indians off completely
Pakistan doesn't have the numbers for an offensive doctrine. Our doctrine is, simply mobilise before Indians, outnumber them in a few sectors, seize territory 10-50km deep inside India, then try to hold whatever we can before international intervention. Once Indians fully mobilise, we will have no choice but to slowly withdraw to defensive positions, inflicting maximum casualties on them.

If we are forced to move too far back we will employ TNWs and the Indian army, air force and navy will be wiped off the face of the earth. It will then be their call whether to surrender or turn South Asia into a radioactive wasteland.

Indians are fully aware of this and it almost became a reality in 2002, so they came up with Cold Start.

India can absorb 5-10 times as many casualties as us due to its sheer quantitative superiority. We can't handle the losses from an exclusively offensive doctrine.
 
There is no comparison between SLBM , SLCM , india can launch SLBM from anywhere from the world while Pak sub will have to stay dangerously close to Indian shores to launch our short range (450km) babur cruise missiles , either we should go for SLBM platform or we should increase the range of babur missiles to 3000 plus
 
View attachment 724449
By Tipu7


Naval power is an important political instrument and critical national security ingredient of any maritime state. Historically, seas have played fundamental role in shaping the geopolitical environment. Themistocles (524-460 BC) once stated, “whosoever can hold the sea has command of everything.” Alfred T. Mahan, while theorizing his concept of sea power, famously argued, “whoever rules the seas, rules the world.” In early 20th century, admiral Erich Raeder also deduced, “all wars will be settled by sea-power.” The importance of oceans has magnified even further in modern times. Despite of improvements in other transportation mediums, seas continue to constitute the bulk of international trade. The economic conceptualization of oceans formulated the model of blue economy. The blue economy deals with the exploration and exploitation of maritime economic potential of a state including international trade through sea lines of communications (SLOCs), organic resources like fishing, inorganic resources like hydrocarbon deposits, coastal tourism, energy generation, shipping industry and all fiscal activities related to littoral and deep waters. The blue economic inspiration and the sea power development are interdependent, and share directly proportional relationship with each other.

Apart from economic axis, naval power serves strategic interests of maritime nations including: provision of maritime security, assertion of sovereignty on claimed territories, execution of naval diplomacy and projection of naval coercion. The naval coercion includes gunboat diplomacy as well as maritime deterrence which in turn can be conventional and nuclear in nature.

The inspiration for naval force development is driven by the maritime interests, threat environment and the economic stability of a nation. Historically, Pakistan has struggled to raise credible naval prowess primarily due to economic restrictions and the maritime blindness of political and military leadership. Therefore, Pakistan Navy remained a force of approximately a dozen frigate size warships, few submarines and handful number of maritime patrol assets. The presence of such limited war fighting capacity hampered Pakistan naval ambitions and kept posing acute challenges regarding regional naval balance of power.

In recent years, a policy shift has taken place to realize the blue economic potential of Pakistan – a trend symbolizing growing Maritime Domain Awareness. The initiation of China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project – the flag ship of China’s global Belt Road Initiative (BRI) – has opened new prospects of economic progression. The development of Gwadar port city and its proximity with Strait of Hormuz – the choke point through which 30% of global oil shippments pass – on one side has augmented the maritime influence of Islamabad but on opposite side has increased the scope of maritime threats of both symmetric and asymmetric nature. In parallel, the aggressive naval build up by India and its policy of nuclearization of Indian Ocean under the blanket of strategic stability, clearly authenticates New Delhi’s growing hegemonic ambitions in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). The emerging maritime security environment dictates that Pakistan navy must work in conventional as well as nuclear dimension to maintain the regional maritime balance of power and subsequently safeguard its growing national interests.

The capacity buildup roadmap of Pakistan Navy has been discussed by previous CNS Admiral Zafar Mahmood Abbasi and current CNS Admiral Muhammad Amjad Khan Niazi on separate occasions. The modernization efforts will comprehensively cover all three dimensions of naval warfare, i.e. surface, sub-surface and air. PN now envisions a surface fleet of fifty warships, including twenty major warships, which will be organized into three Surface Task Groups (STGs). Each STG will be stationed in Gwadar, Ormara and Karachi respectively. The requisite flotilla size will be attained by procurement of four Type-54AP frigates from China, four Milgum class corvettes from Turkey, heavy tonnage ships of unknown origin and indigenous Jinnah class frigate program. These upcoming warships, many of which are already in construction phase, will add in existing fleet of four Zulfiquar class frigates and two newly acquired Yarmook class corvettes. Plus, PN intends to locally construct dozens of fast attack crafts to supplement its littoral defenses. The modern warships will be equipped with state of art sensors, electronic warfare (EW) suite, and next generation armaments. Overall, the STGs will be configured as per the given threat spectrum and will augment navy’s anti surface warfare (ASuW), anti-air warfare (AAW) and anti-submarine warfare (ASW) capabilities by many folds.

Regarding submarines, PN is in process modernizing its existing Khalid class subs from Turkey, is expecting eight Hangor class subs from China by 2028, and is planning to acquire shallow water attack submarines (SWATs) to replace existing Cosmos class midgets. The force of eleven Air Independent Propusion (AIP) submarines comprising of Khalid and Hangoor class subs will constitute the mainstay of Pakistan’s underwater sea denial potency while SWATs will diversify PN’s littoral and special operational capabilities. In parellel, PN is raising a fleet of state of the art maritime patrol aircrafts, ISR drones, and new helicopters in transport and ASW configurations. The employment of Jf-17 Thunder aircrafts with new arrays of anti-ship missiles and beyond visual range engagement capability has further consolidated Pakistan’s air envelop in Northern Arabian Sea. Major progression has been achieved in the area of anti-ship cruise missiles (ASCM). Variety of coastal, ship borne, air launched and submarine launched cruise missiles have already been deployed or are in advance phase of development.

The fundamental question thus emerges, is Pakistan’s naval force modernization sufficient enough to credibly deter Indian Navy? Deterrence is the denial of hostile actions of the adversary by threatening retaliatory use of force. Based upon nature, deterrence is broadly classified into nuclear and conventional domains. In the nuclear domain, both New Delhi and Islamabad now view seas as a medium of assured retaliatory nuclear capability. The employment methodology, however, is very different. Unlike India, which is organizing its sea-based nuclear deterrent on nuclear ballistic submarines (SSBNs) armed with sea launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), Pakistan is designing its sea-based nuclear deterrent – as far as open source information is concerned -around AIP based submarines (SSP) equipped with sea launched cruise missiles (SLCMs). This contrast is a byproduct of strategic environment variability, i.e. India deterrence spectrum is two fold and includes China and Pakistan, while Pakistan seeks to deter India only. The nuclear developments in Arabian Sea proves that PN will be – if not already is – the custodian of Pakistan’s assured second strike capability and will play crucial role in securing regional strategic stability.

The framework of conventional deterrence is comparatively more complicated. John J. Mearsheimer, while detailing the concept of conventional deterrence, emphasized that the technology driven capabilities have transformed the military calculations. The smaller forces with technological advantages can effectively deter bigger adversaries particularly in defensive warfare. The nuclear deterrence is chiefly based upon deterrence by punishment and is purposed to nullify the risk of major conflict. Conventional deterrence in contrast is pre-dominantly reliant upon deterrence by punishment and is meant to thwart low end and limited conflicts. For attainment of full spectrum deterrence, attainment of credible nuclear and conventional deterrence is critical.

In recent decades, India has assertively emphasized on diversification of its maritime influence. The primary motivations being to achieve regional hegemony and to counter growing Chinese influence in IOR. On one side, India has become part of US-led quad alliance, while on other side it is extensively modernizing and expanding its naval forces. By 2030, Indian Navy is expected to achieve target of 175 warships including twenty 6,000+ tons warships and two aircraft carriers further supplemented by roughly two dozen submarines (conventional and nuclear) and a growing fleet of air borne maritime assets.

Pakistan Navy cannot equate Indian Navy on tonnage basis. It neither has the equivalent capacity nor the requirement. Unlike Indian navy, which is postured to achieve sea control and is tasked to counter multiple fronts simultaneously, Pakistan navy is tailored to exercise sea denial and is primarily meant to deal with India centric threats only. Even after completion of fore mentioned modernization programs, PN will remain pre-dominantly committed towards reinforcing its anti access/area-denial (A2/AD) capabilities a move akin to its strategic requirements. For manifesting credible deterrence, PN must retain synchronization with the technological progression and evolving warfare concepts. The modern warfare is less about attrition, numerical strength and mass fire power, and more about flexibility, force synergy and precise fire power. Instead of force concentration, maneuver warfare is preferred. The naval force with more robustness, better network centricity, advance non-contact combat potential and superior electromagnetic prowess, is more likely to prevail irrespective of the size. The nuclear threshold deny feasibility of major wars and instead grant space to limited confrontations only – a low conventional threshold where numerical superiority can be countered by effective employment of force in being. Therefore, Pakistan must keep consolidating its naval prowess in nuclear as well as conventional domains for a sustainable full spectrum deterrence in order to ensure geopolitical equilibrium and regional balance of power.

@HRK @waz @Rashid Mahmood @Parminder Singh

@Tipu7 First of all brilliant article brother. You are a smart man so you have lived up to it and great article. Now here are my thoughts on this.

Yes we cannot match Indian Navy ship by ship and simply there is no need for it. Still we can't also allow the size to be more the three times. If India plans to have fleet of 80 to 100 major ships in next few years. From major ships what I mean is Destroyers and Frigates and Corvettes. Then we need to have at least 25 to 30 major ships.

Secondly along with those ships Pakistan needs to work on its missiles. We need to Frigates and Destroyers which can carry at least 1600 KM range missile in its VLS systems. We need at least 12 such ships. Plus even the missiles which are fired from missile tubes liker our Harbah. We need to come up with missiles which has range of 600 to 800 KM and can be fired from those tubes. As we cannot match ship to ship we have bring strike capability in which we have long range missiles which can hit targets on land as well as moving ships at sea. With Harbah range increased to let say 750 KM just like land version Babur we can focus on inducting more missile boats.

Now let's discuss Submarines. We don't know what are the capabilities of 8 Hangoor class ships. But again not only we need to get 8 AIP subs from China which hopefully would have VLS for 1600 KM range cruise missile but we should work on getting 4 to 6 AIP subs from some European country also. 15 AIP subs plus 6 to 8 Midget subs which can go help protect our shores and hunt enemy ships would be great.

Last but not the least for Air cover yes 10 new jets to replace our P3C Orion plus our ATR 72 are great additions. Along with them we should have 2 squadrons of either JF-17 or hopefully even better jet for to keep India at bay plus long range anti ship missiles which can be fired from land to hit targets and ships on sea are must.

India must know that we can rain down hell on every major Indian city in south. In fact all three forces should have the capability to hit any part of India at will without taking help or requiring help from sister forces.

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There is no comparison between SLBM , SLCM , india can launch SLBM from anywhere from the world while Pak sub will have to stay dangerously close to Indian shores to launch our short range (450km) babur cruise missiles , either we should go for SLBM platform or we should increase the range of babur missiles to 3000 plus
SLCM Babur range increases from 450 to 3000 plus KM ???? :hitwall::hitwall::hitwall::suicide:
 
We do not need to bite off more than we can chew.

An example which we can learn from Rasool Allah SAW, and early Muslims was that despite them enjoying the full support of Allah with angels at their disposal, they never picked up a fight which they can not win with their faith and human strength, Muslims once manage to hold the entire Arabia by crushing the rebellion in far yemen (riba Wars) then their focus was shifted towards the enemy to west ( Byzantines ) . why I am mentioning this here because a lot of Pakistani's tends to get Jazbati once 1-2 new systems are inducted and then in their excitement they want their country to openly show hostilities to every one or every enemy visible or hidden. Mark my words the day Pakistan induct its first AIP powered Sub which carry babur, many of our countrymen will be threatening half the world from India to US.
Did we learn nothing from the best people who walk the earth and created, managed one of the worlds greatest and largest empire?


on topic, its a good read but i believe that PN is now beyond the deterrence, they are up for big surprise for IN, time for blockades are long gone for IN.
 
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